Category: NASCAR Fantasy Live

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NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kentucky, Quaker State 400

Congratulations to Carl Edwards for his first Sprint Cup road course victory at Sonoma. If you were unfortunate enough to pick Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, or AJ Allmendinger, you were less cheerful than the 99 team after Sunday’s race. NASCAR returns to the intermediate-sized track in Kentucky this weekend. The top drivers have dominated the first three races in Sparta. My suggestion would be to pick your top-three drivers first, then choose the best drivers with the remaining salary cap dollars.

Each of the last three years, a driver has led over 100 laps at the track. The odds are in favor of one car being dominant this weekend. If you pick the correct driver, you will be well on your way to success. My strategy is to choose the drivers with the highest probability of being the dominant driver based on their history at the track. This will provide the best chance of winning in the fantasy live league.

Kyle Busch has led the most laps of any driver at Kentucky. He has the second-best average finish in the series. Kyle Busch has been decent in 2014, but he has not been one of the elite drivers. If he is able to duplicate his historical performance, Busch has a high probability of netting fantasy points for your team. The driver with the second-most Fantasy live points at Kentucky is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson led 182 laps in last year’s race, and he has a sixth place average finish at the track. His team has seen the most success over the last six weeks and could easily be the team to dominate this race.

Matt Kenseth is the only Sprint Cup driver with a top-five average finish at Kentucky. Although he has not led as many laps as Johnson or Busch, Kenseth has shown consistency in 2014 and should not be a disappointing pick. Other drivers at the top worth your consideration include Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, Jeff Gordon, and Kurt Busch.

My picks of Johnson, Kenseth, and Kyle Busch absorb $81.25 of my $100 budget, leaving little space for the two remaining drivers. Although the price is steep, I am betting that they have the best opportunity to lead over 100 laps. David Ragan continues to be a value choice at $10.25 and usually exceeds his dollar value. With a 21st place average finish at Kentucky, you should find value with Ragan.

With only $9.50 remaining in my budget, the best options remaining are Landon Cassill, Reed Sorenson, and Travis Kvapil. Kvapil has the most points per fantasy dollar, but I do not trust his team in 2014. That leaves a toss-up between Cassill and Sorensen with the edge going to Cassill. His 28th place average finish at the track is not impressive, but still will provide enough value for his $7.50 price tag.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com uses a salary cap format to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week. The scoring system combines laps led, fast laps, final position, and start-to-finish differential. Our formula basically determines the total number of points earned for each driver and divides that number by the salary cap figure. We can then determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

For additional clarification on the formula, we will review the details from Kurt Busch this week.

KURT BUSCH AT KENTUCKY

  • Total laps led last three years at Kentucky: 41 (17 laps per race = 8.5 points)
  • Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average Finish Position: 11th = 33 points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Plus 4 = 4 points
  • Total points earned by race: 43.5
  • Nascar.com Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 43.5/$23.50 equals 1.94 points per dollar

For rookies with no historical data at the track, we will use their data from all tracks in the 2014 season to provide an idea what to expect. The Fantasy Live points per dollar numbers are below with this week’s picks in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 2.94
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.50
  • Matt Kenseth 2.10
  • Brad Keselowski 1.83
  • Kasey Kahne 1.61
  • Jeff Gordon 1.47
  • Kevin Harvick 1.30
  • Joey Logano 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.01
  • Clint Bowyer 0.85

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 1.94
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.75
  • Denny Hamlin 1.55
  • Jamie McMurray 1.44
  • Aric Almirola 1.38
  • Kyle Larson 1.30
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.15
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.08
  • Austin Dillon 1.06
  • Tony Stewart 0.91
  • Ryan Newman 0.72
  • Paul Menard 0.69
  • Greg Biffle 0.47
  • Brian Vickers 0.18

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.77
  • Casey Mears 1.61
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.37
  • Justin Allgaier 1.27

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.78
  • David Gilliland 1.77
  • Cole Whitt 1.33

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 3.59
  • Reed Sorensen 2.52
  • Michael Annett 2.21
  • Landon Cassill 2.17
  • Alex Bowman 1.49
  • JJ Yeley 1.25
  • Ryan Truex Jr. 0.88
  • Josh Wise 0.26
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Sonoma, Toyota / Save Mart 350

Now that Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team have started their domination mode that we are all familiar with, Nascar moves west to wine country for the first of two road races this season. Due to the nature of the road course, Sonoma is one of the more predictable tracks of the season. Generally, drivers who traditionally run at the top finish at the top, while those who struggle will continue to perform poorly. The end result is good news for the fantasy players at the top of the standings and little opportunity to gain points on the leaders for the players at the bottom.

On tracks that are predictable, my strategy is to pick my drivers from the top-down. In other words, find the best choices and fill in with the best options available with whatever money is remaining. The top three average finishers over the last five years at Sonoma are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Marcos Ambrose. All three averaged a top five finish since 2009. Combined, they will take $77 of the $100 salary cap budget, and they should be worth their cost.

Jimmie Johnson had been unstoppable in the last month. If he has a bad finish, I cannot regret taking the series leader during a hot streak. He is averaging 48.5 points per Sonoma race and 1.73 fantasy points per dollar. My biggest concern with starting Johnson is that he has not led a lap at Sonoma since 2009. That being said, his fantasy live point total over the past five years is the most of any driver.

The second selection is a toss-up between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer. Both drivers will perform well. Bowyer has a slightly higher point total than Gordon with a lower salary cap figure. The edge goes to Gordon due to Gordon’s better performance over the course of the 2014 season. His team has been one of the most consistent on a week-to-week basis. Like Johnson, Gordon is low of the total laps led with only 17 in the last five years, and this is his only drawback.

My third pick was initially an easy choice with Marcos Ambrose until I noticed I had enough cap space for Kurt Busch. Kurt Busch is the only driver to lead a lap in four of the last five Sonoma races. His 94 laps led is the most of any driver. While Busch has experienced more recent success, Ambrose is more consistent over the last ten years. His 64 laps led is fourth among all drivers. With the new Chase format, his team knows this is one of the few races they can realistically win. Marcos Ambrose will be driving to win on Sunday.

With only $23 remaining, we were lucky to scrap together two solid options with the rest of the cap money. Boris Said only has a $7.50 cap figure. Although he is not as dominant at the road courses as he once was, Said still is averaging a 21st place finish and led eight laps in 2010. His 3.31 points per fantasy dollar is the highest of any driver. David Gilliland performs adequately at Sonoma with a 22nd place average sine 2009. He will not challenge to win the race, but should finish in the middle and provide value for his $12.50 cap figure. Outside of the five drivers chosen above, other options I like who missed the cut include AJ Allmendinger, Tony Stewart, Casey Mears, and Martin Truex Jr.

The salary cap formula used in this article determines how many fantasy points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com uses a salary cap formula in order to prevent you from simply starting the best drivers every week. Their scoring system combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. This formula tallies the total points earned by each driver over the last five years and divides this figure by the fantasy live salary cap number. The end result is a number that predicts the number of points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.

For further clarification, see the example of Marcos Ambrose at Sonoma below:

MARCOS AMBROSE AT SONOMA

  • Total laps led last five years: 64 (6.4 fantasy points per race)
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Finish position: 4th place (40 fantasy points per race)
  • Start-to-finish differential: Minus 2 equals minus 2 fantasy points
  • Total points per Sonoma race: 44.4
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: 21.24
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 44.4/21.24 equals 2.09

We will use 2014 totals for drivers with no historical data at the track. The points per fantasy dollar for each driver are below. Suggested drivers this week are in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.79
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.65
  • Carl Edwards 1.30
  • Kevin Harvick 1.28
  • Brad Keselowski 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.94
  • Matt Kenseth 0.91
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.84
  • Kyle Busch 0.37

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Marcos Ambrose 2.09
  • Kurt Busch 1.80
  • Kasey Kahne 1.52
  • Kyle Larson 1.43
  • Austin Dillon 1.40
  • Brian Vickers 1.31
  • Aric Almirola 1.22
  • Tony Stewart 1.12
  • Greg Biffle 1.12
  • Paul Menard 1.09
  • Jamie McMurray 1.03
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.02
  • Ryan Newman 0.88
  • Denny Hamlin 0.41

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.14
  • Justin Allgaier 1.27
  • Casey Mears 1.19

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.24
  • David Ragan 1.95
  • Danica Patrick 1.22

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Boris Said 3.31
  • Landon Cassill 3.10
  • Josh Wise 2.67
  • Michael Annett 2.21
  • Cole Whitt 1.76
  • JJ Yeley 1.69
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Ryan Truex 0.86
  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.68)
  • Reed Sorenson (-1.18)
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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Michigan, Quicken Loans 400

By passing Brad Keselowski in the final laps at Pocono, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has officially punched his ticket to the chase. Similar to last week’s race, there is not a historically dominant driver to pick this week at Michigan. This week, there are several viable options to choose from for salary cap racing. You will need luck on your side this week as we dive into the numbers at Michigan.

With many solid choices at the top, the strategy for this article is to find the potential sleepers first. Juan Pablo Montoya is crossing over from open-wheel racing this week and provides excellent value at $10. At first, Montoya seemed risky because of a concern about driving in an unreliable vehicle. Knowing that he is driving on the Penske team reduces this risk. Montoya is a bargain-pick who should be in your lineup.

Danica Patrick is the second-best sleeper option. Although she has been inconsistent in 2014, she passed twenty-four cars en route to a 13th place finish last June. She may not be able to duplicate her 55 points from last spring, but you should get value out of her $14.75 price tag. Other value drivers to consider include Landon Cassill and Travis Kvapil.

With the two sleeper choices identified, we can focus on the top choices. The driver with the most fantasy live points over the last five years is Carl Edwards. Edwards has only led 47 total laps during this time span. The 99 car is a consistent finisher at Michigan with a 6th place average over the last ten years.

Greg Biffle is a close second to Edwards in total fantasy live points. Biffle has led the most laps in June races since 2009 with 196 laps led. He has led 40 laps or more in four of the last five years, showing his consistency at the track. Biflle also boasts a 7th place average finish over the last five years.

With $25 remaining, the final salary car pick will go to Tony Stewart. Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are expected to do well, but carry too high of a price. Smoke has improved since the summer races began with solid runs at Pocono and Dover. Stewart has averaged a fifth-place finish over the last five years.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com uses a salary cap format for each race in order to prevent us from simply choosing the top drivers every week. Their scoring system combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. This formula calculates the total number of points each driver accumulates for a given race over the past five years. Once the point total is determined, we divide this figure by the salary cap total on fantasy live. We can then determine the number of points to expect from each salary cap dollar.

For further clarification, see the Michigan details for Greg Biffle below:

GREG BIFFLE AT MICHIGAN

  • Total laps led last five June races: 196 (19.6 points per race)
  • Final position: Average position of 6.8 = 38 points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Start to finish differential: Plus 6 = 6 points per race
  • Total points per race: 63.60
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 63.6/23.25 = 2.74

We will use 2014 totals for drivers with no historical data at the track. The points per fantasy dollar for each driver are below. Suggested drivers this week are in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.06
  • Clint Bowyer 1.69
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.65
  • Matt Kenseth 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.39
  • Brad Keselowski 1.34
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.32
  • Jeff Gordon 1.13
  • Kyle Busch 1.12
  • Joey Logano 0.82

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Tony Stewart 1.99
  • Denny Hamlin 1.79
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr 1.32
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.30
  • Brian Vickers 1.26
  • Kyle Larson 1.21
  • Austin Dillon 1.14
  • Jamie McMurray 1.10
  • Paul Menard 1.02
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.99
  • Ryan Newman 0.98
  • Aric Almirola 0.93
  • Kurt Busch 0.60
  • Kasey Kahne 0.12

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.46
  • Justin Allgaier 1.23
  • Casey Mears 1.09

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • Danica Patrick 3.73
  • David Ragan 2.19
  • David Gilliland 1.61
  • Cole Whitt 1.56

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 3.54
  • Landon Cassill 3.23
  • Juan Pablo Montoya 2.94
  • Reed Sorenson 2.52
  • JJ Yeley 2.15
  • Michael Annett 1.73
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Ryan Truex 0.76
  • Trevor Bayne 0.56
  • Josh Wise (-0.53)
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Pocono, Pocono 400

During last week’s Dover race, all of the data strongly pointed towards a dominating effort by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not disappoint with a dominant car that led over 200 laps on his way to his second consecutive victory. The Pocono race this week does not have as clear of a path to fantasy success, as there is not a dominant team over the past five years. Still, there are definitely drivers who perform well at the Pennsylvania tri-oval and can guide you to victory.

While reviewing the total laps led over the last five spring races, no driver has led more than 200 total laps over the five races. The drivers with the most laps led are Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards. Johnson should be chosen because his team is returning to its usual elite form. Hamlin and Edwards have a lower average finish than Johnson. Between the two, I would recommend Hamlin because he has led the most laps.

Of the remaining top drivers, Tony Stewart has the highest points per fantasy dollar at Pocono with 1.85. He only averaged 8 laps led per race with a 13th place average. He looked better last week in Dover, and usually finishes strong in the summer races. Stewart, Hamlin, and Johnson combine for a promising starting trio with a combined salary cap total of $73.25.

To fill out the roster, we need to find the best value with the remaining $26.75 on the cap. During last year’s Pocono race, I started Travis Kvapil in my yahoo league and was worried on how he would run. He did not disappoint and has great value play of the week. Wit a 23rd place average are the last five races, Kvapil can easily outperform is $6.50 salary cap value.

There were not many superb options to choose with the remaining $20.25. The best drivers remaining at this dollar value are Casey Mears and AJ Allmendinger. Neither driver has a successful history at Pocono with the edge going slightly to Mears. The expectations are low with a 25th place average, but I would rather choose Mears than take Hamlin, Johnson, or Stewart off the roster.

Another option to consider is Matt Kenseth. As the season continues, Kenseth is becoming more desperate to earn his first win. He will be taking risks to win, which may make him worth starting. Jeff Gordon is having a consistent 2014 and has a successful history at Pocono. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano can be considered on any given week of the season even if the track data does not support starting them.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent players from simply starting the best five drivers every week. The format forces you to try to find value in under-the-radar drivers. The point accumulated are a combination of final position, laps led, fast laps, and start-to-finish differential. This formula measures the total points per race over the last five spring races and divides that number by the salary cap figure on nascar.com. The final number allows us to predict how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.

For further clarification, please see Tony Stewart’s spring Pocono details below:

TONY STEWART AT POCONO

  • Total laps leds last five Pocono spring races: 40
  • Laps led per race: 8 (4 fantasy points)
  • Start-to-finish differential: 7
  • Average finish position: 13th (31 points)
  • Total points per race: 42
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Total: $23.25
  • Fantasy points per salary cap dollar: 1.85

For rookie drivers with no track history, this article is uses the driver’s results for the 2014 season in order to get an idea what to expect from them. My picks for this weeks race at Pocono are in bold below.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.67
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Joey Logano 1.49
  • Matt Kenseth 1.45
  • Kyle Larson 1.36
  • Jeff Gordon 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kyle Busch 1.14
  • Clint Bowyer 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 0.85
  • Kevin Harvick 0.84

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Denny Hamlin 1.89
  • Tony Stewart 1.85
  • Ryan Newman 1.73
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.43
  • Greg Biffle 1.32
  • Kasey Kahne 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.95
  • Brian Vickers 0.90
  • Jamie McMurray 0.90
  • Paul Menard 0.87
  • Aric Almirola 0.70
  • Kurt Busch 0.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Justin Allgaier 1.23
  • Casey Mears 1.07
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.79

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 1.72
  • David Gilliland 1.46
  • Cole Whitt 1.43

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.54
  • Dave Blaney 2.88
  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Michael Annett 1.78
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Landon Cassill 0
  • JJ Yeley (-0.46)
Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Dover International, FedEx 400

With his first win of the season during the 600-mile Charlotte race on Memorial Day weekend, Jimmie Johnson hopes to continue his winning streak. Now that the 2014 season is a third of the way complete, drivers without a victory will be taking more risks to punch their ticket for the chase. NASCAR moves north to the Monster Mile in Dover this weekend. With ten winners in twelve races, the door remains open for another race winner in 2014.

Dover is a relatively predictable track. Historically, drivers finish close to where we expect them to finish. Over the last five years, Johnson has led over 200 laps four times. Last year, he led his lowest total with 143. Over the last five spring races, Johnson has led 881 more laps than the second-best driver (Kyle Busch). The big question is which other drivers you will choose this week.

The majority of the top drivers are averaging between 1.5 and 2 points per fantasy dollar. Beyond Johnson, your picks at the top are more dependent on personal preference over statistical probability since the numbers are close. Kevin Harvick is consistent at Dover with an 8.8 average finish over the last five years. Kyle Busch led 150 laps last year and should be considered.

There are some potential bargains at the bottom of the list. With the top drivers having success, finding great bargains at Dover is challenging. One option is Reed Sorenson, who has averaged a 25th place finish. Though not particularly impressive, Sorenson is valuable due to his low price tag of $6.75. David Ragan is not exceptional either at Dover with a 24th place average; however, he has good value due to his $10.50 price.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week. Points are awarded for a combination of average finish position, fast laps, laps led, and start-to-finish position differential. This article calculates the total number of points a driver earns and divides the point total by the salary cap amount on NASCAR.com. We can determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

For further clarification, let’s look at this week’s numbers for Jimmie Johnson.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DOVER

  • Total laps led last five spring races: 1,162 (232.4 laps per race)
  • Fantasy points per race for laps led: 116.2 (1 point for every two laps led)
  • Start position to finish position differential: 1
  • Fantasy points for average finish position: 36 points for an eighth place average
  • Total fantasy points per race; 151.2
  • Jimmie Johnson current fantasy value per NASCAR.com: $27.50
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 151.2/27.5 = 5.5

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.5 points/fantasy dollar
  • Kyle Busch 1.97
  • Clint Bowyer 1.72
  • Carl Edwards 1.72
  • Kevin Harvick 1.67
  • Matt Kenseth 1.66
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.37
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Joey Logano 1.16
  • Kasey Kahne 0.62

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Aric Almirola 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.98
  • Tony Stewart 1.91
  • Greg Biffle 1.71
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.52
  • Kyle Larson 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brian Vickers 1.17
  • Paul Menard 0.97
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.92
  • Denny Hamlin 0.81
  • Ryan Newman 0.75
  • Austin Dillon 0.71
  • Jamie McMurray 0.66

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Danica Patrick 2.19 points/fantasy dollar
  • Casey Mears 1.55
  • Justin Allgaier 1.44
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.33

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • David Gilliland 0.64

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.28 points/fantasy dollar
  • Josh Wise 1.87
  • Michael Annett 1.84
  • Cole Whitt 1.58
  • Alex Bowman 1.53
  • JJ Yeley 1.23
  • Ryan Truex 0.84
  • Landon Cassill 0.63