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NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Sonoma, Toyota / Save Mart 350

Now that Jimmie Johnson and the 48 team have started their domination mode that we are all familiar with, Nascar moves west to wine country for the first of two road races this season. Due to the nature of the road course, Sonoma is one of the more predictable tracks of the season. Generally, drivers who traditionally run at the top finish at the top, while those who struggle will continue to perform poorly. The end result is good news for the fantasy players at the top of the standings and little opportunity to gain points on the leaders for the players at the bottom.

On tracks that are predictable, my strategy is to pick my drivers from the top-down. In other words, find the best choices and fill in with the best options available with whatever money is remaining. The top three average finishers over the last five years at Sonoma are Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, and Marcos Ambrose. All three averaged a top five finish since 2009. Combined, they will take $77 of the $100 salary cap budget, and they should be worth their cost.

Jimmie Johnson had been unstoppable in the last month. If he has a bad finish, I cannot regret taking the series leader during a hot streak. He is averaging 48.5 points per Sonoma race and 1.73 fantasy points per dollar. My biggest concern with starting Johnson is that he has not led a lap at Sonoma since 2009. That being said, his fantasy live point total over the past five years is the most of any driver.

The second selection is a toss-up between Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer. Both drivers will perform well. Bowyer has a slightly higher point total than Gordon with a lower salary cap figure. The edge goes to Gordon due to Gordon’s better performance over the course of the 2014 season. His team has been one of the most consistent on a week-to-week basis. Like Johnson, Gordon is low of the total laps led with only 17 in the last five years, and this is his only drawback.

My third pick was initially an easy choice with Marcos Ambrose until I noticed I had enough cap space for Kurt Busch. Kurt Busch is the only driver to lead a lap in four of the last five Sonoma races. His 94 laps led is the most of any driver. While Busch has experienced more recent success, Ambrose is more consistent over the last ten years. His 64 laps led is fourth among all drivers. With the new Chase format, his team knows this is one of the few races they can realistically win. Marcos Ambrose will be driving to win on Sunday.

With only $23 remaining, we were lucky to scrap together two solid options with the rest of the cap money. Boris Said only has a $7.50 cap figure. Although he is not as dominant at the road courses as he once was, Said still is averaging a 21st place finish and led eight laps in 2010. His 3.31 points per fantasy dollar is the highest of any driver. David Gilliland performs adequately at Sonoma with a 22nd place average sine 2009. He will not challenge to win the race, but should finish in the middle and provide value for his $12.50 cap figure. Outside of the five drivers chosen above, other options I like who missed the cut include AJ Allmendinger, Tony Stewart, Casey Mears, and Martin Truex Jr.

The salary cap formula used in this article determines how many fantasy points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com uses a salary cap formula in order to prevent you from simply starting the best drivers every week. Their scoring system combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. This formula tallies the total points earned by each driver over the last five years and divides this figure by the fantasy live salary cap number. The end result is a number that predicts the number of points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.

For further clarification, see the example of Marcos Ambrose at Sonoma below:

MARCOS AMBROSE AT SONOMA

  • Total laps led last five years: 64 (6.4 fantasy points per race)
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Finish position: 4th place (40 fantasy points per race)
  • Start-to-finish differential: Minus 2 equals minus 2 fantasy points
  • Total points per Sonoma race: 44.4
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: 21.24
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 44.4/21.24 equals 2.09

We will use 2014 totals for drivers with no historical data at the track. The points per fantasy dollar for each driver are below. Suggested drivers this week are in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.79
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.65
  • Carl Edwards 1.30
  • Kevin Harvick 1.28
  • Brad Keselowski 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.94
  • Matt Kenseth 0.91
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.84
  • Kyle Busch 0.37

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Marcos Ambrose 2.09
  • Kurt Busch 1.80
  • Kasey Kahne 1.52
  • Kyle Larson 1.43
  • Austin Dillon 1.40
  • Brian Vickers 1.31
  • Aric Almirola 1.22
  • Tony Stewart 1.12
  • Greg Biffle 1.12
  • Paul Menard 1.09
  • Jamie McMurray 1.03
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.02
  • Ryan Newman 0.88
  • Denny Hamlin 0.41

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.14
  • Justin Allgaier 1.27
  • Casey Mears 1.19

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.24
  • David Ragan 1.95
  • Danica Patrick 1.22

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Boris Said 3.31
  • Landon Cassill 3.10
  • Josh Wise 2.67
  • Michael Annett 2.21
  • Cole Whitt 1.76
  • JJ Yeley 1.69
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Ryan Truex 0.86
  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.68)
  • Reed Sorenson (-1.18)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Toyota/Save Mart 350, Sonoma Raceway

Jimmie Johnson looks tough, Kevin Harvick looks like a contender every week and Tony Stewart just keeps improving. There is still a long way before the Chase starts, but some teams are showing their strength right now. With the new system in place this season, a driver that makes the Chase the week before it starts has just as good of a chance as any driver in the field. The main thing is to make that Chase.

Jimmie Johnson won his third race of the season in his last three starts to make him the person to beat once again this season, but Kevin Harvick proved that he is just as good on a weekly basis. Matt Kenseth is still looking for his first win of the season and is still solidly in the hunt at this time. A lot of things can happen before the Chase, and more things can happen during it!

This week the series heads out west for the first road course race of the season at the Sonoma Raceway. Sonoma is a 2.52-mile road course with twelve turns. This is only one of two road courses on the circuit and many drivers are happy because of it. I myself believe that if a restrictor plate race is good enough for the Chase a road course race should be included too. That will tell me who the real champion is!

TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350

Marcos Ambrose: Although Marcos has yet to win a race here and hasn’t really improved this season, this is the track that I think he wins at. Since breaking his transmission in his first start here for the Wood Brothers back in 2008 and finishing 42nd, Marcos has reeled off five straight top ten finishes and should have a car that can win the race this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: With five career wind and thirteen top five finishes in twenty-one race, Jeff is another strong pick for the win. This team has been more consistent this year than the last four years on a weekly basis and if his back feels good he will be a contender for the win once again this week.

Tony Stewart:
I think this week will be a tell tale sign to Tony’s’ health. He started off the year rather slow, but has come on strong over the past month. He has always run well on the road courses and has two wins and nine top ten finishes in fifteen starts here. I think he has a great chance of getting his first win of the season this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint is another driver that has struggled a bit so far this season. he is also a driver that has been very consistent at Sonoma during his career. Clint has one win and six top ten finishes in eight starts here. I’m sure this team is looking at this race to get their first win of the season and qualify for the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget this guy. Jimmie has finished in the top ten in his last five starts at this track including a win back in 2010. The way this team is performing right now you can’t count them out of any race. He has nothing to lose by taking chances and going for the win in another race before the Chase starts, which makes him very dangerous this week.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is my dark horse of the week. He has struggled the last month and a half, but he has always been very good at Sonoma. He is already qualified for the Chase and loves to run the road courses. If he has a decent handling car next week and can compete, he will stop at nothing less than a win.

Brad Keselowski: I will never forget the finish that Brad and Marcos Ambrose put on at Watkins Glen a few years ago. This was just two good ‘ol boys racing their hearts out for a win in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and after the checkered flag flew, Brad had nothing but good things to say about the competitiveness of that race. This is a guy that has what it takes to win at this track.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has a win at this track and loves to run this type of a race. He needs to be a little more patient early in the race and not worry about getting knocked around some. That is what happens at this track. If you stay calm and make your passes at the right time you will find yourself in position to win at the end of the race and you have done it before.

Watch for the “ringers” this week. I am sure that their will be a few road course experts in the field this week such as Boris Said and others. I’m not sure who will run the #66 car this weekend, if Juan Pablo will be back behind the wheel or who else you might see in a car. The entry list comes out on Tuesday and once it does you will have other options to start this weekend, especially in in the Yahoo league.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR SONOMA RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Marcos Ambrose
  • Tony Stewart
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Boris Said
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT SONOMA RACEWAY

  1. Marcos Ambrose
  2. Tony Stewart
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Kurt Busch

Stay Away From: Dale Earnhardt Jr.