During last week’s Dover race, all of the data strongly pointed towards a dominating effort by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not disappoint with a dominant car that led over 200 laps on his way to his second consecutive victory. The Pocono race this week does not have as clear of a path to fantasy success, as there is not a dominant team over the past five years. Still, there are definitely drivers who perform well at the Pennsylvania tri-oval and can guide you to victory.
While reviewing the total laps led over the last five spring races, no driver has led more than 200 total laps over the five races. The drivers with the most laps led are Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards. Johnson should be chosen because his team is returning to its usual elite form. Hamlin and Edwards have a lower average finish than Johnson. Between the two, I would recommend Hamlin because he has led the most laps.
Of the remaining top drivers, Tony Stewart has the highest points per fantasy dollar at Pocono with 1.85. He only averaged 8 laps led per race with a 13th place average. He looked better last week in Dover, and usually finishes strong in the summer races. Stewart, Hamlin, and Johnson combine for a promising starting trio with a combined salary cap total of $73.25.
To fill out the roster, we need to find the best value with the remaining $26.75 on the cap. During last year’s Pocono race, I started Travis Kvapil in my yahoo league and was worried on how he would run. He did not disappoint and has great value play of the week. Wit a 23rd place average are the last five races, Kvapil can easily outperform is $6.50 salary cap value.
There were not many superb options to choose with the remaining $20.25. The best drivers remaining at this dollar value are Casey Mears and AJ Allmendinger. Neither driver has a successful history at Pocono with the edge going slightly to Mears. The expectations are low with a 25th place average, but I would rather choose Mears than take Hamlin, Johnson, or Stewart off the roster.
Another option to consider is Matt Kenseth. As the season continues, Kenseth is becoming more desperate to earn his first win. He will be taking risks to win, which may make him worth starting. Jeff Gordon is having a consistent 2014 and has a successful history at Pocono. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano can be considered on any given week of the season even if the track data does not support starting them.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent players from simply starting the best five drivers every week. The format forces you to try to find value in under-the-radar drivers. The point accumulated are a combination of final position, laps led, fast laps, and start-to-finish differential. This formula measures the total points per race over the last five spring races and divides that number by the salary cap figure on nascar.com. The final number allows us to predict how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.
For further clarification, please see Tony Stewart’s spring Pocono details below:
TONY STEWART AT POCONO
- Total laps leds last five Pocono spring races: 40
- Laps led per race: 8 (4 fantasy points)
- Start-to-finish differential: 7
- Average finish position: 13th (31 points)
- Total points per race: 42
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Total: $23.25
- Fantasy points per salary cap dollar: 1.85
For rookie drivers with no track history, this article is uses the driver’s results for the 2014 season in order to get an idea what to expect from them. My picks for this weeks race at Pocono are in bold below.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 1.67
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
- Joey Logano 1.49
- Matt Kenseth 1.45
- Kyle Larson 1.36
- Jeff Gordon 1.29
- Carl Edwards 1.18
- Kyle Busch 1.14
- Clint Bowyer 1.04
- Brad Keselowski 0.85
- Kevin Harvick 0.84
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)
- Denny Hamlin 1.89
- Tony Stewart 1.85
- Ryan Newman 1.73
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.38
- Austin Dillon 1.43
- Greg Biffle 1.32
- Kasey Kahne 1.13
- Marcus Ambrose 0.95
- Brian Vickers 0.90
- Jamie McMurray 0.90
- Paul Menard 0.87
- Aric Almirola 0.70
- Kurt Busch 0.39
- Ricky Stenhouse 0.39
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)
- Justin Allgaier 1.23
- Casey Mears 1.07
- Danica Patrick 1.07
- AJ Allmendinger 0.79
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)
- David Ragan 1.72
- David Gilliland 1.46
- Cole Whitt 1.43
GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)
- Travis Kvapil 5.54
- Dave Blaney 2.88
- Reed Sorenson 2.22
- Michael Annett 1.78
- Alex Bowman 1.41
- Josh Wise 0.53
- Landon Cassill 0
- JJ Yeley (-0.46)