With his first win of the season during the 600-mile Charlotte race on Memorial Day weekend, Jimmie Johnson hopes to continue his winning streak. Now that the 2014 season is a third of the way complete, drivers without a victory will be taking more risks to punch their ticket for the chase. NASCAR moves north to the Monster Mile in Dover this weekend. With ten winners in twelve races, the door remains open for another race winner in 2014.
Dover is a relatively predictable track. Historically, drivers finish close to where we expect them to finish. Over the last five years, Johnson has led over 200 laps four times. Last year, he led his lowest total with 143. Over the last five spring races, Johnson has led 881 more laps than the second-best driver (Kyle Busch). The big question is which other drivers you will choose this week.
The majority of the top drivers are averaging between 1.5 and 2 points per fantasy dollar. Beyond Johnson, your picks at the top are more dependent on personal preference over statistical probability since the numbers are close. Kevin Harvick is consistent at Dover with an 8.8 average finish over the last five years. Kyle Busch led 150 laps last year and should be considered.
There are some potential bargains at the bottom of the list. With the top drivers having success, finding great bargains at Dover is challenging. One option is Reed Sorenson, who has averaged a 25th place finish. Though not particularly impressive, Sorenson is valuable due to his low price tag of $6.75. David Ragan is not exceptional either at Dover with a 24th place average; however, he has good value due to his $10.50 price.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week. Points are awarded for a combination of average finish position, fast laps, laps led, and start-to-finish position differential. This article calculates the total number of points a driver earns and divides the point total by the salary cap amount on NASCAR.com. We can determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.
For further clarification, let’s look at this week’s numbers for Jimmie Johnson.
JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DOVER
- Total laps led last five spring races: 1,162 (232.4 laps per race)
- Fantasy points per race for laps led: 116.2 (1 point for every two laps led)
- Start position to finish position differential: 1
- Fantasy points for average finish position: 36 points for an eighth place average
- Total fantasy points per race; 151.2
- Jimmie Johnson current fantasy value per NASCAR.com: $27.50
- Fantasy points per dollar: 151.2/27.5 = 5.5
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 5.5 points/fantasy dollar
- Kyle Busch 1.97
- Clint Bowyer 1.72
- Carl Edwards 1.72
- Kevin Harvick 1.67
- Matt Kenseth 1.66
- Jeff Gordon 1.57
- Brad Keselowski 1.37
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
- Joey Logano 1.16
- Kasey Kahne 0.62
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)
- Aric Almirola 2 points/fantasy dollar
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.98
- Tony Stewart 1.91
- Greg Biffle 1.71
- Marcus Ambrose 1.52
- Kyle Larson 1.33
- Kurt Busch 1.17
- Brian Vickers 1.17
- Paul Menard 0.97
- Martin Truex Jr. 0.92
- Denny Hamlin 0.81
- Ryan Newman 0.75
- Austin Dillon 0.71
- Jamie McMurray 0.66
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)
- Danica Patrick 2.19 points/fantasy dollar
- Casey Mears 1.55
- Justin Allgaier 1.44
- AJ Allmendinger 0.33
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)
- David Ragan 2 points/fantasy dollar
- David Gilliland 0.64
GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)
- Reed Sorenson 2.28 points/fantasy dollar
- Josh Wise 1.87
- Michael Annett 1.84
- Cole Whitt 1.58
- Alex Bowman 1.53
- JJ Yeley 1.23
- Ryan Truex 0.84
- Landon Cassill 0.63