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Accupredict Driver Finish Projections

Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!

The Difference between AP Finish & Rank?

Mascot

Accupredict Performance History at this Track and Track Type

Indianapolis Motor Speedway
  • 1 races
  • 0 winners picked
  • 4 correct top-10's
  • Avg -0.56 positions off
  • 10.97 std dev off
  • 38 drivers evaluated
Flat Track Group
  • 36 races
  • 7 winners picked
  • 215 correct top-10's
  • Avg -0.23 positions off
  • 9.25 std dev off
  • 1,353 drivers evaluated

Sleepers / Under-ranked Contenders

Ideal for DFS pivots, fantasy sleepers, or value betting plays. These drivers are ranked outside the Top-10 in AP projections, but their historical Driver Rating at this track suggests they could finish much better.

Daniel Dye

Daniel Dye


AP Rank: 17th

Projected Finish: 16.22

Track Driver Rating: 86.40


Potential Top-20 Breakouts

Could be a sneaky DFS Value Pick or Long Shot Top-10 Bet. These drivers are currently ranked outside the Top-20 but have a strong statistical chance to outperform their ranking.

There are not any drivers that are currently rated as Potential Top-20 Breakouts.

Metrics Used

BOLD METRICS are currently contributing to projection. 6 of 6 (100.0%) metrics are in use.

  • Qualifying
  • Practice
  • Recent Form
  • YTD Driver Rating
  • Track Type Form
  • Track Driver Rating

Accupredict projections are recalculated as new race metric data is available. (Last updated Saturday, July 26th @ 2:57pm ET)

VISUAL DRIVER PROJECTION RANGE

A visual breakdown of projected finish positions for each driver.

What This Graph Shows
  • Each bar represents a driver’s projected finish range.
  • Darker bars = More confidence in their position.
  • Wider bars = More uncertainty (larger prediction range).
How to Read This
  • Short Bars → Consistent, reliable drivers.
  • Long Bars → Unpredictable, high variance.
  • Rank Order → Sorted by best projected finish.
Your Strategy
  • Short-range drivers: More reliable picks for DFS & betting.
  • Long-range drivers: Higher risk, bigger upside.

Pennzoil 250

Saturday, July 26th, 2025

Indianapolis Motor Speedway , Indianapolis, IN

Indianapolis Motor Speedway logo

Manufacturer Projected Odds

MAKE
IN RACE
ODDS TO WIN
PCT TO WIN

Toyota
5
+350
22.3%
Chevrolet
28
-200
64.0%
Ford
5
+650
13.7%
  • 5
  • 28
  • 5
The clock is ticking! Don't be a spectator - lock in your picks before the green flag drops!
Projection Note! Kyle Larson is ranked lower than he should be due to using Fair Average Values for Track Type Average and Track Driver Rating. He should be moved to the top.
What is this?
Toggle column visibility by clicking the gear in the table header.
NAME
#
MAKE
Performance Probabilities
RANK
FINISH
WIN
T3
T5
T10
WIN
T3
T5
T10
Performance Metrics
FORM
YTD DR
TYP FORM
TRK DR
PRC
ST
DFS
$DK

Justin Allgaier
7
Chevrolet
1
8.32
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
4.00
8
$
Aric Almirola
19
Toyota
2
9.19
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
11.00
6
$
Kyle Larson
17
Chevrolet
9
13.17
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
5.00
19
$
Joey Gase
53
Chevrolet
36
27.92
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
35.00
36
$
David Starr
35
Chevrolet
38
29.64
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
37.00
38
$
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