Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Michigan International Speedway, Quicken Loans 400

The stars are starting to shine as we get closer to the start of the Chase. Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr on getting his second win of the season and first of his career at Pocono. Winning at a track you have never won at before makes you a legitimate contender to win a championship with the new rules this year. This just shows that this team has a chance to win at tracks they haven’t won at yet.

This week the series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Quicken Loans 400. MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped oval with 18 degree banking in the turns. It is very similar to California Speedway in the configuration and I believe the biggest difference in these tracks is the weather. Not a real big deal in racing, so those who are good at one of these tracks is usually good at the other.

QUICKEN LOANS 400

Greg Biffle: I am going to go out on a sturdy limb and predict that Greg gets his first victory of the season. He has won two of the past four races at this track and that is why I say the limb is sturdy. I believe that this is Greg’s favorite track to run on and that gives a driver an advantage heading into the weekend. He also has six top five finishes in his last eleven starts at this track, so he is a good pick to start no matter what.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin finished second in the last two race run here and the way he has been running this season I believe he will have a contending car once again. This team has had a great car every weekend and is a legitimate contender in Kevin’s first year with Stewart/Haas Racing. This team is ready to go every week this year.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has finished in the top ten in his last three starts here.. This team already has a win on the season, but they would like to win another race heading int;o the Chase to prove that they can run well on a consistent basis.

Tony Stewart: Smoke has had a pretty rough season so far, but the weather is warming up and he is feeling better every week. He has finished in the top ten at Michigan in six of his last seven races and knows that he has a car as good as Kevin Harvick under the hood every week I look for him to content this weekend and for the remainder of the season on a weekly basis.

Jimmie Johnson: I can’t talk about California and Michigan without mentioning Jimmie. He has won two of the last three races run this season and is always good at both of the aforementioned tracks. He has also lead laps in the last three races at this track, but lost engines in two of those races. I wouldn’t worry too much about the engines this week though.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always been a terror at Michigan and California, and even though he is still in second place in the standings I know he would love to get a win very soon. I think this team needs to go back to the basics and not worry so much about what might or might not happen during the race and just race. Then they will be good to go.

Clint Bowyer: This is another team that has been very disappointed with themselves so far this year. but they have always been very good at Michigan. Clint has finished in the top ten here in his last six starts and just needs to have things go right throughout the day. His pit crew needs to be better and then he will be a contender late in this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won two races at this track, including a win here two years ago. Last year he struggled here, blowing an engine in the spring race and losing a bunch of laps in the fall race. This team isn’t worried about those things this season and will be looking back at the win they had two years ago as they head into this weekend’s race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Grag Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Juan Pablo Montoya
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Greg Biffle
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Pocono, Pocono 400

During last week’s Dover race, all of the data strongly pointed towards a dominating effort by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not disappoint with a dominant car that led over 200 laps on his way to his second consecutive victory. The Pocono race this week does not have as clear of a path to fantasy success, as there is not a dominant team over the past five years. Still, there are definitely drivers who perform well at the Pennsylvania tri-oval and can guide you to victory.

While reviewing the total laps led over the last five spring races, no driver has led more than 200 total laps over the five races. The drivers with the most laps led are Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards. Johnson should be chosen because his team is returning to its usual elite form. Hamlin and Edwards have a lower average finish than Johnson. Between the two, I would recommend Hamlin because he has led the most laps.

Of the remaining top drivers, Tony Stewart has the highest points per fantasy dollar at Pocono with 1.85. He only averaged 8 laps led per race with a 13th place average. He looked better last week in Dover, and usually finishes strong in the summer races. Stewart, Hamlin, and Johnson combine for a promising starting trio with a combined salary cap total of $73.25.

To fill out the roster, we need to find the best value with the remaining $26.75 on the cap. During last year’s Pocono race, I started Travis Kvapil in my yahoo league and was worried on how he would run. He did not disappoint and has great value play of the week. Wit a 23rd place average are the last five races, Kvapil can easily outperform is $6.50 salary cap value.

There were not many superb options to choose with the remaining $20.25. The best drivers remaining at this dollar value are Casey Mears and AJ Allmendinger. Neither driver has a successful history at Pocono with the edge going slightly to Mears. The expectations are low with a 25th place average, but I would rather choose Mears than take Hamlin, Johnson, or Stewart off the roster.

Another option to consider is Matt Kenseth. As the season continues, Kenseth is becoming more desperate to earn his first win. He will be taking risks to win, which may make him worth starting. Jeff Gordon is having a consistent 2014 and has a successful history at Pocono. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano can be considered on any given week of the season even if the track data does not support starting them.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent players from simply starting the best five drivers every week. The format forces you to try to find value in under-the-radar drivers. The point accumulated are a combination of final position, laps led, fast laps, and start-to-finish differential. This formula measures the total points per race over the last five spring races and divides that number by the salary cap figure on nascar.com. The final number allows us to predict how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.

For further clarification, please see Tony Stewart’s spring Pocono details below:

TONY STEWART AT POCONO

  • Total laps leds last five Pocono spring races: 40
  • Laps led per race: 8 (4 fantasy points)
  • Start-to-finish differential: 7
  • Average finish position: 13th (31 points)
  • Total points per race: 42
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Total: $23.25
  • Fantasy points per salary cap dollar: 1.85

For rookie drivers with no track history, this article is uses the driver’s results for the 2014 season in order to get an idea what to expect from them. My picks for this weeks race at Pocono are in bold below.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.67
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Joey Logano 1.49
  • Matt Kenseth 1.45
  • Kyle Larson 1.36
  • Jeff Gordon 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kyle Busch 1.14
  • Clint Bowyer 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 0.85
  • Kevin Harvick 0.84

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Denny Hamlin 1.89
  • Tony Stewart 1.85
  • Ryan Newman 1.73
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.43
  • Greg Biffle 1.32
  • Kasey Kahne 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.95
  • Brian Vickers 0.90
  • Jamie McMurray 0.90
  • Paul Menard 0.87
  • Aric Almirola 0.70
  • Kurt Busch 0.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Justin Allgaier 1.23
  • Casey Mears 1.07
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.79

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 1.72
  • David Gilliland 1.46
  • Cole Whitt 1.43

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.54
  • Dave Blaney 2.88
  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Michael Annett 1.78
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Landon Cassill 0
  • JJ Yeley (-0.46)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Pocono Raceway, Pocono 400

Jimmie Johnson pulled off his second win in a row and Matt Kenseth, without a win yet this season, took over the point standings with a third place finish. So, now we are half-way to the Chase, we have ten different winners and the driver that is leading the standings doesn’t have a win yet.

Next week the series heads to Pocono Raceway for the running of the Pocono 400. Pocono is a two and a half mile flat track with only three turns. In other words it looks like a triangle and every corner is different for the drivers. In my opinion the races at Pocono are quite boring, but that is just my opinion.

POCONO 400

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is my pick to win this week at Pocono. He has always run well here throughout his career, winning six races and finishing in the top five in almost half of the races he has run here. Jeff won this race in the fall of 2012 and finished second here last fall. He is very consistent and is having a great year, having good cars every week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is on a roll and when he gets on a roll he is tough to beat. He won this race last season and finished and has finished in the top five here in four of his last six races and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen since 2007. This team looks like they have things figured out right now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has four straight top ten finishes here and had a good run at Dover last weekend. Tony has been inconsistent so far this year, but he has been that way in the past. I think he is still recovering from the broken leg he suffered last season and is going to start running better every week as we get further into the season.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has been very consistent all season and even though he has never been great at Pocono, I believe that this year will be different for this team. They are very confident week in and week out this year and will have another good run once again this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has had an up and down season so far this year, but he has always run well at Pocono. He has won four races in sixteen starts and has finished in the top five in half of those starts also. This could be the place where Denny picks up his second win of the season.

Kurt Busch: Here is a team that has been struggling lately, but this could be the week that they turn things around. Kurt has two wins at this track and has finished in the top five in forty percent of his career starts. That includes three top five finishes in his last five starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although Dale has never won a race at this track he is very consistent here. He has finished in the top ten in five of his last six starts here and has run well all season. This team would like to get another victory soon and a win here would really boost their confidence.

Carl Edwards: Carl is another driver that has always run well at Pocono. He has two wins to his credit and seems to excel on the flat tracks like Pocono. They already have a win that should get them into the Chase, but they would like to become a little more consistent and be able to compete for the win on a weekly basis.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win here and has finished no worse than twenty-third in his eight starts at this track. He has finished in the top six in three of his last five starts at Pocono and knows how to get around this track. This is the type of track that this team could pick up their second win of the season at.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR POCONO RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT POCONO RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Dover International, FedEx 400

With his first win of the season during the 600-mile Charlotte race on Memorial Day weekend, Jimmie Johnson hopes to continue his winning streak. Now that the 2014 season is a third of the way complete, drivers without a victory will be taking more risks to punch their ticket for the chase. NASCAR moves north to the Monster Mile in Dover this weekend. With ten winners in twelve races, the door remains open for another race winner in 2014.

Dover is a relatively predictable track. Historically, drivers finish close to where we expect them to finish. Over the last five years, Johnson has led over 200 laps four times. Last year, he led his lowest total with 143. Over the last five spring races, Johnson has led 881 more laps than the second-best driver (Kyle Busch). The big question is which other drivers you will choose this week.

The majority of the top drivers are averaging between 1.5 and 2 points per fantasy dollar. Beyond Johnson, your picks at the top are more dependent on personal preference over statistical probability since the numbers are close. Kevin Harvick is consistent at Dover with an 8.8 average finish over the last five years. Kyle Busch led 150 laps last year and should be considered.

There are some potential bargains at the bottom of the list. With the top drivers having success, finding great bargains at Dover is challenging. One option is Reed Sorenson, who has averaged a 25th place finish. Though not particularly impressive, Sorenson is valuable due to his low price tag of $6.75. David Ragan is not exceptional either at Dover with a 24th place average; however, he has good value due to his $10.50 price.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week. Points are awarded for a combination of average finish position, fast laps, laps led, and start-to-finish position differential. This article calculates the total number of points a driver earns and divides the point total by the salary cap amount on NASCAR.com. We can determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

For further clarification, let’s look at this week’s numbers for Jimmie Johnson.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DOVER

  • Total laps led last five spring races: 1,162 (232.4 laps per race)
  • Fantasy points per race for laps led: 116.2 (1 point for every two laps led)
  • Start position to finish position differential: 1
  • Fantasy points for average finish position: 36 points for an eighth place average
  • Total fantasy points per race; 151.2
  • Jimmie Johnson current fantasy value per NASCAR.com: $27.50
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 151.2/27.5 = 5.5

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.5 points/fantasy dollar
  • Kyle Busch 1.97
  • Clint Bowyer 1.72
  • Carl Edwards 1.72
  • Kevin Harvick 1.67
  • Matt Kenseth 1.66
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.37
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Joey Logano 1.16
  • Kasey Kahne 0.62

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Aric Almirola 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.98
  • Tony Stewart 1.91
  • Greg Biffle 1.71
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.52
  • Kyle Larson 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brian Vickers 1.17
  • Paul Menard 0.97
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.92
  • Denny Hamlin 0.81
  • Ryan Newman 0.75
  • Austin Dillon 0.71
  • Jamie McMurray 0.66

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Danica Patrick 2.19 points/fantasy dollar
  • Casey Mears 1.55
  • Justin Allgaier 1.44
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.33

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • David Gilliland 0.64

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.28 points/fantasy dollar
  • Josh Wise 1.87
  • Michael Annett 1.84
  • Cole Whitt 1.58
  • Alex Bowman 1.53
  • JJ Yeley 1.23
  • Ryan Truex 0.84
  • Landon Cassill 0.63
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Dover International Speedway, FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks

We are a third of the way through the 2014 season and Jimmie Johnson just became the tenth driver to win a race this year. There are a few notable drivers who don’t have a win yet this season including, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne just to name a few. Will NASCAR get six more winners in the next fourteen races to fill all of the Chase spots?

This week the series heads to Dover International Speedway which is one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. DIS is a one-mile concrete oval with twenty-four degrees of banking in the corners. Qualifying means a lot at this track as sixty-eight of the eighty-eight race winners have started in the top ten. You don’t want to start towards the back and get lapped early in the race because of an ill handling car.

FEDEX 400 BENEFITING AUTISM SPEAKS

Jimmie Johnson: Now that Jimmie has a win under his belt he might just win a bunch of races in the coming weeks. He has more wins than any other driver, eight, at this track and won the race here last fall. I am picking him to get his second straight win of the year this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint is one of the drivers still looking for his first win of the season and Dover is a good place for him to get it. Clint has finished in the top ten in his last six starts at this track and would like nothing better than to have a great run and get himself qualified for the Chase this weekend. He will need to do a better job of qualifying to have a legitimate shot at heading to victory lane though.

Joey Logano: Joey has four straight top ten finishes at Dover. The big problem for him here is that he has lead only one lap in the ten races he has run at this track. He needs to have a dominant car right from the beginning of the race so that he can stay up front. As I said before, if you start in the back it doesn’t bode well for a good finishing position.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff still leads the point standings and has always been good at Dover. He has four career wins here and has finished in the top five in his last three starts at Dover. This team wants to get another win and improve on their lead as we get closer to the Chase. Jimmie is the only active driver to lead more laps at Dover than Jeff.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eight starts. This is the type of track that Kyle loves to run on. The high banking in the corners gives him the option of passing high or low as he always has a great handling car at Dover.

Tony Stewart: Tony won this race last year, but he only lead a total of three laps in that race. Early in his career he was one of the dominant drivers at Dover each time he ran here. Lately he has struggle mightily here, only leading nine laps in his last eighteen starts. This team needs to shake things up a bit, because Tony has the same equipment that Kevin Harvick has and he should be able to run just as well every week.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has finished in the top ten in nineteen of thirty races he has run at Dover, including two wins. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid mechanical failures early in the race he will be in contention at the end of the race. There are still fourteen races before the start of the Chase, but this team would like to get their first win of the season as soon as possible.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has had a fast car each and every week this season. Although he has never won a Sprint Cup race at Dover he has finished in the top ten in six of his last eight starts there. The way this team has been running all year I wouldn’t put it past Kevin to pick up his first career victory here this weekend.

Greg Biffle: Greg is another driver who is chomping at the bit to visit victory lane for the first time this season. He has won here before and always seems to have a good car during practices and qualifying. he just needs a little luck to stay out of harms way early in the race and make the right adjustments at the end to give him a shot at the checkered flag.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale finished second to Jimmie Johnson last September at Dover and has a win to his credit at this track. This team is looking to rebound from a mechanical failure last week in Charlotte. It is imperative that they qualify well this week and keep up on their adjustments as the track changes during the race. Do that, stay out of trouble early, and you have a shot at the win.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Greg Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Clint Bowyer
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart