With the Daytona 500 just around the corner, it's time to analyze driver performance at restrictor plate tracks. My goal is to help you make data-informed choices for your fantasy NASCAR lineups, NASCAR DFS picks, and sports betting strategies. Instead of relying solely on Daytona-specific data stretching back years, I focus on recent trends by grouping similar track types.
Similar Track Groupings
I use the strategy of grouping similar track types as categorized by the Accupredict Driver Projections algorithm. This provides a larger pool of relevant data while maintaining a focus on current driver performance. For this analysis, I am limiting our scope to the NextGen car era, from 2022 to the present.
The Restrictor Plate Track Group includes Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Atlanta, historically a 1.5-mile intermediate track, was reconfigured for the 2022 season. Changes included increasing the banking from 24 to 28 degrees and narrowing the racing surface, leading to a tight, draft-oriented pack racing similar to Daytona and Talladega.
Daytona and Talladega are classified as "Tapered Spacer" tracks. While NASCAR no longer uses restrictor plates, the combination of a tapered spacer, larger spoiler, larger splitter, and aero-ducts results in the same style of close pack racing.
Pack Racing & "The Big One": These tracks are known for large packs of cars racing in close quarters, often leading to the infamous multi-car wrecks known as "The Big One." While Talladega is traditionally the more chaotic track, the repaved surface at Daytona has made three-wide racing and multi-car wrecks more common.
Daytona Winners: Why Winning Here Doesn't Always Mean Consistency
A surprising trend in the data is that many past Daytona winners rank poorly in overall restrictor plate track performance . Why does this happen? There are a few key reasons:
The Chaos Factor ("The Big One") Daytona and Talladega are high-variance tracks where large multi-car wrecks frequently eliminate top contenders. Many winners have just one or two standout performances but a history of getting caught in crashes, leading to a low average finish.
Late-Race Gambles and Risk-Taking
Unlike intermediate tracks where the best cars usually win, superspeedway success often comes down to aggressive late-race moves. A driver might be running 10th with two laps to go and make a daring move to win - or crash and finish 30th. Winning Means You Took a Risk
Drivers who win at Daytona often put themselves in risky positions. Meanwhile, those with the best consistent records (strong T10/T15 stats) may focus more on survival rather than going all-in for the win.
Daytona-Specific Success Isn't Always Repeatable
Unlike tracks like Martinsville or Phoenix, where skill plays a more direct role, Daytona winners often benefit from drafting luck, pit strategy, and wreck avoidance, making sustained success difficult.
The Strategy of the Best Superspeedway Racers
The top superspeedway racers Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski) often don't win as frequently as expected because they focus on minimizing risk and maximizing points. Meanwhile, drivers like Austin Dillon or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. may take more risks, leading to occasional wins but more frequent DNFs.
Highlighted Drivers
I will focus on five drivers based on:
- Accupredict Predicted Finish
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks
- Best Daytona Finish
- Recent Performance at Daytona
- Career Performance at Daytona
High Expectations and Consistency
Christopher Bell
- #20 Interstate Batteries Toyota
- Joe Gibbs Racing
- Accupredict Rank: #1 – Bell is projected as the top driver based on Accupredict's formula.
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks: 14.88 – A solid record in pack racing environments.
- Best Daytona Finish: 1st – Has proven he can win at Daytona.
- Recent Performance at Daytona: 79.90 rating – Among the better performers in recent races.
- 6-Year Trend Performance at Daytona: Trending upward with improvements each year.
Key Trend
Bell has steadily improved in restrictor plate racing and is a top contender.
Strong at Pack Racing Tracks
Bubba Wallace
- #23 McDonald's Toyota
- 23XI Racing
- Accupredict Rank: #5 – A strong projected finish.
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks: 15.75 – One of the better performers.
- Best Daytona Finish: 2nd – Has come very close to victory.
- Recent Performance at Daytona: 86.19 rating – One of the highest-rated drivers.
- 6-Year Trend Performance at Daytona: Consistently in contention at the end of races.
Key Trend
Bubba has the skill-set to stay up front and challenge for the win.
Veteran with Daytona Upside
Kyle Busch
- #8 - Chevrolet
- Richard Childress Racing
- Accupredict Rank: #6 – Another high projection.
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks: 12.75 – Better than most.
- Best Daytona Finish: 2nd – Knows how to contend at this track.
- Recent Performance at Daytona: 88.01 rating – High performance in the NextGen era.
- 6-Year Trend Performance at Daytona: Among the most consistent drivers.
Key Trend
Busch has been snake-bitten at Daytona, but he is always a threat to win.
Looking for Redemption
Ryan Blaney
- #12 Menards Ford
- Team Penske
- Accupredict Rank: #4 – One of the top-rated drivers.
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks: 20.00 – Results don't match his speed.
- Best Daytona Finish: 1st – Has won here before.
- Recent Performance at Daytona: 82.33 rating – Solid but has been unlucky.
- 6-Year Trend Performance at Daytona: A mix of strong runs and misfortune.
Key Trend
Blaney is a top-tier superspeedway racer who just needs a clean race.
Quietly One of the Best
William Byron
- #24 Axalta Chevrolet
- Hendrick Motorsports
- Accupredict Rank: #3 – Highly rated by projections.
- Average Finish at Restrictor Plate Tracks: 9.38 – One of the best in the field.
- Best Daytona Finish: 1st – Knows how to win here.
- Recent Performance at Daytona: 74.69 rating – Not elite, but strong.
- 6-Year Trend Performance at Daytona: Continually improving each season.
Key Trend
Byron's consistency at Daytona makes him a great pick for fantasy and DFS.
Final Thoughts
Restrictor plate races are unpredictable, but analyzing driver trends at these specific track types can help guide lineup and betting decisions. Christopher Bell, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron stand out as strong choices for the Daytona 500 based on their NextGen performance, track history, and projections. Make sure to consider recent trends and driver momentum when finalizing your fantasy NASCAR and DFS picks!
