Accupredict Driver Finish Projections

Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!

The Difference between AP Finish & Rank?

Mascot

Accupredict Performance History at this Track and Track Type

Kansas Speedway
  • 4 races
  • 1 winners picked
  • 18 correct top-10's
  • Avg 0.42 positions off
  • 7.92 std dev off
  • 134 drivers evaluated
Large Oval Track Group
  • 7 races
  • 3 winners picked
  • 31 correct top-10's
  • Avg 0.36 positions off
  • 8.57 std dev off
  • 235 drivers evaluated

Sleepers / Under-ranked Contenders

Ideal for DFS pivots, fantasy sleepers, or value betting plays. These drivers are ranked outside the Top-10 in AP projections, but their historical Driver Rating at this track suggests they could finish much better.

There are not any drivers that are currently rated a Sleeper / Under-ranked Contender.

Potential Top-20 Breakouts

Could be a sneaky DFS Value Pick or Long Shot Top-10 Bet. These drivers are currently ranked outside the Top-20 but have a strong statistical chance to outperform their ranking.

Cody Dennison

Cody Dennison


AP Rank: 26th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 21.75


Morgen Baird

Morgen Baird


AP Rank: 27th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 22.73


Toni Breidinger

Toni Breidinger


AP Rank: 28th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 23.87


Nathan Byrd

Nathan Byrd


AP Rank: 29th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 24.14


Metrics Used

BOLD METRICS are currently contributing to projection. 6 of 6 (100.0%) metrics are in use.

  • Qualifying
  • Practice
  • Recent Form
  • YTD Driver Rating
  • Track Type Form
  • Track Driver Rating

Accupredict projections are recalculated as new race metric data is available. (Last updated Saturday, May 10th @ 4:53pm ET)

VISUAL DRIVER PROJECTION RANGE

A visual breakdown of projected finish positions for each driver.

What This Graph Shows
  • Each bar represents a driver’s projected finish range.
  • Darker bars = More confidence in their position.
  • Wider bars = More uncertainty (larger prediction range).
How to Read This
  • Short Bars → Consistent, reliable drivers.
  • Long Bars → Unpredictable, high variance.
  • Rank Order → Sorted by best projected finish.
Your Strategy
  • Short-range drivers: More reliable picks for DFS & betting.
  • Long-range drivers: Higher risk, bigger upside.

Heart of Health Care 200

Saturday, May 10th, 2025

Kansas Speedway , Kansas City, KS

Kansas Speedway logo

Manufacturer Projected Odds

MAKE
IN RACE
ODDS TO WIN
PCT TO WIN

Chevrolet
15
+300
25%
Ford
10
+300
25%
Toyota
6
-100
50%
Think you know NASCAR better than the Experts? Here's your shot to prove it.
Projection Note! For this race, pay close attention to Carson Hocevar, Daniel Hemric, and especially William Byron. They have metrics using Fair Average Values (marked with an *), meaning their rankings may appear lower than their true potential. William Byron, in particular, is an elite Cup Series driver racing in Trucks, and his current ranking is likely undervalued. Consider boosting these drivers higher in your personal analysis.
What is this?
Toggle column visibility by clicking the gear in the table header.
Driver
NAME
#
MAKE
AP Projections
RNK
FIN
AP Odds
WIN
T3
T5
T10
AP Percentages
WIN
T3
T5
T10
AP Ranking Metrics
FORM
YTD DR
TYP FORM
TRK DR
PRC
ST
DFS
$DK

Grant Enfinger
9
Chevrolet
2
11.26
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
9.00
15
$
Daniel Hemric
19
Chevrolet
14
15.33
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
17.00
22
$
William Byron
07
Chevrolet
17
16.44
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
13.00
11
$
Bayley Currey
44
Chevrolet
21
19.50
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
24.00
17
$
Matt Crafton
88
Ford
23
20.37
+
+
+
+
%
%
%
%
23.00
25
$
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