AccuPredict Driver Projection Results

NASCAR Cup Series

This is a historical results' page analyzing Accupredict's accuracy in driver projections. A novel idea, right? Checking how accurate an experts projections are.

Kyle Larson

View CUP Series Statistics driver page.

308 Cup Series races with projected and actual finish positions are available for Kyle Larson.

Averaged statistics of all race projections Accupredict has made for Kyle Larson.

FINISH 13.99
Rank 9.76
Rank +/- 4.23
Projected 13.58
Projected +/- 0.41

Tracks

Track Races AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
Atlanta Motor Speedway 11 16.09 7.18 8.91 12.70 3.39
Auto Club Speedway 9 14.78 11.11 3.67 14.66 0.12
Bristol Motor Speedway 14 12.79 8.07 4.71 12.86 -0.08
Bristol Motor Speedway (Dirt) 2 16.50 3.50 13.00 10.36 6.14
Charlotte Motor Speedway 13 16.77 15.15 1.62 16.16 0.61
Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course 4 18.50 3.75 14.75 10.51 7.99
Chicagoland Speedway 6 6.17 10.67 -4.50 13.68 -7.51
Circuit of The Americas 2 15.50 3.00 12.50 10.45 5.05
Darlington Raceway 11 8.82 6.91 1.91 11.74 -2.92
Daytona International Speedway 18 22.44 17.94 4.50 18.09 4.35
Daytona Road Course 1 30.00 10.00 20.00 15.68 14.32
Dover International Speedway 14 6.93 6.14 0.79 11.55 -4.62
Homestead Miami Speedway 9 10.67 12.56 -1.89 15.12 -4.45
Indianapolis Motor Speedway 6 16.00 8.83 7.17 13.05 2.95
Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course 2 19.00 2.50 16.50 9.94 9.06
Kansas Speedway 16 14.19 8.50 5.69 12.95 1.24
Kentucky Speedway 6 18.17 13.00 5.17 15.15 3.01
Las Vegas Motor Speedway 14 10.50 6.57 3.93 12.08 -1.58
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum 1 5.00 10.00 -5.00 15.01 -10.01
Martinsville Speedway 16 19.31 12.00 7.31 15.34 3.97
Michigan International Speedway 14 11.36 10.21 1.14 13.59 -2.24
Nashville Superspeedway 2 2.50 1.00 1.50 8.76 -6.26
New Hampshire Motor Speedway 12 12.50 9.75 2.75 12.77 -0.27
Phoenix Raceway 18 11.72 8.06 3.67 12.56 -0.83
Pocono Raceway 15 11.13 9.53 1.60 13.00 -1.86
Richmond Raceway 16 11.50 8.94 2.56 13.09 -1.59
Road America 3 7.00 3.67 3.33 10.02 -3.02
Sonoma Raceway 8 15.13 5.38 9.75 11.77 3.36
Talladega Superspeedway 16 22.81 13.94 8.88 16.46 6.36
Texas Motor Speedway 17 17.18 11.71 5.47 14.97 2.20
Watkins Glen International 9 9.44 8.22 1.22 12.61 -3.17
World Wide Technology Raceway 1 12.00 7.00 5.00 12.90 -0.90

Track Types

Type Races Description AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
Flat 86 The 'Flat' NASCAR tracks are Indianapolis, Martinsville, New Hampshire, Phoenix, Pocono and Richmond. We originally grouped Indianapolis and Pocono as 'Shallow' Tracks. But, the pair provided little statistical data at only three races per year. Therefore, we grouped them into the 'Flat' Tracks category. As a result, we found that results for eight-race averages show improvement in all Flat Track correlations. Pocono in particular is better correlated with this new grouping of Flat Tracks. 13.19 9.33 3.86 13.23 -0.04
Large Oval 92 The 'Large Oval' NASCAR tracks are Atlanta, California, Charlotte, Chicago, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan and Texas. This grouping of tracks show a fairly tight clustering of the curves and improved correlations for each of the member tracks with average finishes over other groupings these tracks get placed in. 14.70 10.83 3.87 14.20 0.49
Restrictor Plate 34 The 'Tapered Spacer' (aka 'Restrictor Plate') NASCAR tracks are Daytona and Talladega. The restrictor plate is gone, but the combination of tapered spacer, larger spoiler, larger splitter and aero ducts give us the same close pack racing. 22.62 16.06 6.56 17.32 5.29
Road Course 29 The 'Road Course' NASCAR tracks are unique from all other tracks as well as each other. Still, we choose to group them together for statistical comparisons. 13.79 5.66 8.14 11.59 2.20
Steep 65 The 'Steep' NASCAR tracks are Bristol, Darlington, Dover, Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas. 10.06 7.65 2.42 12.49 -2.43

Seasons

Season Races AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
2023 6 14.83 6.33 8.50 13.64 1.20
2022 40 13.53 3.85 9.68 11.03 2.49
2021 37 8.89 4.43 4.46 10.14 -1.25
2020 4 11.00 11.25 -0.25 14.25 -3.25
2019 36 15.08 10.22 4.86 14.11 0.97
2018 36 12.56 9.03 3.53 13.41 -0.85
2017 36 13.28 5.94 7.33 11.39 1.88
2016 36 14.72 13.94 0.78 15.62 -0.90
2015 35 19.31 13.83 5.49 15.56 3.76
2014 36 14.17 16.42 -2.25 16.97 -2.80
2013 4 29.25 30.00 -0.75 26.91 2.34