AccuPredict Driver Projection Results

NASCAR Cup Series

This is a historical results' page analyzing Accupredict's accuracy in driver projections. A novel idea, right? Checking how accurate an experts projections are.

Aric Almirola

View CUP Series Statistics driver page.

399 Cup Series races with projected and actual finish positions are available for Aric Almirola.

Averaged statistics of all race projections Accupredict has made for Aric Almirola.

FINISH 18.19
Rank 18.98
Rank +/- -0.80
Projected 18.53
Projected +/- -0.34

Tracks

Track Races AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
Atlanta Motor Speedway 14 18.21 19.64 -1.43 18.97 -0.76
Auto Club Speedway 11 18.45 21.00 -2.55 19.93 -1.47
Bristol Motor Speedway 21 23.33 18.90 4.43 18.65 4.68
Bristol Motor Speedway (Dirt) 2 29.50 25.00 4.50 20.60 8.90
Charlotte Motor Speedway 17 18.12 19.76 -1.65 18.90 -0.79
Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course 5 17.60 19.40 -1.80 18.76 -1.16
Chicagoland Speedway 8 22.25 19.25 3.00 18.57 3.68
Circuit of The Americas 4 24.75 27.25 -2.50 22.88 1.87
Darlington Raceway 15 17.33 18.93 -1.60 18.04 -0.71
Daytona International Speedway 21 19.19 17.62 1.57 18.03 1.16
Daytona Road Course 2 20.50 10.00 10.50 14.47 6.03
Dover International Speedway 19 17.05 19.16 -2.11 18.75 -1.70
Homestead Miami Speedway 11 20.73 18.91 1.82 18.47 2.26
Indianapolis Motor Speedway 9 19.22 20.22 -1.00 19.45 -0.23
Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course 2 28.50 24.50 4.00 19.77 8.73
Kansas Speedway 22 19.27 17.09 2.18 17.47 1.80
Kentucky Speedway 8 17.75 17.63 0.13 17.36 0.39
Las Vegas Motor Speedway 17 17.65 18.65 -1.00 18.18 -0.53
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum 1 18.00 8.00 10.00 14.16 3.84
Martinsville Speedway 22 16.41 18.05 -1.64 18.11 -1.70
Michigan International Speedway 19 19.00 19.26 -0.26 18.52 0.48
Nashville Superspeedway 2 10.50 11.50 -1.00 15.03 -4.53
New Hampshire Motor Speedway 17 17.82 20.00 -2.18 19.29 -1.47
Phoenix Raceway 23 14.13 18.96 -4.83 18.39 -4.26
Pocono Raceway 20 20.55 19.40 1.15 18.80 1.75
Richmond Raceway 21 14.95 19.14 -4.19 18.68 -3.73
Road America 2 21.00 26.00 -5.00 20.43 0.57
Sonoma Raceway 9 18.89 23.33 -4.44 21.15 -2.26
Talladega Superspeedway 22 14.50 15.50 -1.00 17.00 -2.50
Texas Motor Speedway 21 17.10 19.33 -2.24 18.56 -1.46
Watkins Glen International 10 21.60 23.40 -1.80 21.17 0.43
World Wide Technology Raceway 1 5.00 12.00 -7.00 14.16 -9.16

Track Types

Type Races Description AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
Flat 115 The 'Flat' NASCAR tracks are Indianapolis, Martinsville, New Hampshire, Phoenix, Pocono and Richmond. We originally grouped Indianapolis and Pocono as 'Shallow' Tracks. But, the pair provided little statistical data at only three races per year. Therefore, we grouped them into the 'Flat' Tracks category. As a result, we found that results for eight-race averages show improvement in all Flat Track correlations. Pocono in particular is better correlated with this new grouping of Flat Tracks. 16.63 18.96 -2.32 18.58 -1.95
Large Oval 120 The 'Large Oval' NASCAR tracks are Atlanta, California, Charlotte, Chicago, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan and Texas. This grouping of tracks show a fairly tight clustering of the curves and improved correlations for each of the member tracks with average finishes over other groupings these tracks get placed in. 18.58 19.04 -0.46 18.50 0.09
Restrictor Plate 43 The 'Tapered Spacer' (aka 'Restrictor Plate') NASCAR tracks are Daytona and Talladega. The restrictor plate is gone, but the combination of tapered spacer, larger spoiler, larger splitter and aero ducts give us the same close pack racing. 16.79 16.53 0.26 17.50 -0.71
Road Course 34 The 'Road Course' NASCAR tracks are unique from all other tracks as well as each other. Still, we choose to group them together for statistical comparisons. 20.97 22.68 -1.71 20.49 0.48
Steep 86 The 'Steep' NASCAR tracks are Bristol, Darlington, Dover, Homestead-Miami and Las Vegas. 19.52 18.93 0.59 18.44 1.08

Seasons

Season Races AVG FIN AVG RNK RNK +/- AVG PRJ PRJ +/-
2023 8 25.88 19.13 6.75 19.28 6.59
2022 37 17.73 21.49 -3.76 18.94 -1.21
2021 36 19.97 17.94 2.03 18.00 1.98
2020 37 13.49 11.32 2.16 14.05 -0.56
2019 36 15.44 11.92 3.53 14.86 0.58
2018 36 12.75 14.22 -1.47 15.98 -3.23
2017 29 18.79 23.52 -4.72 20.90 -2.11
2016 36 23.31 23.94 -0.64 21.27 2.03
2015 36 17.92 21.42 -3.50 19.99 -2.07
2014 36 21.44 21.69 -0.25 19.52 1.93
2013 36 18.75 20.94 -2.19 18.86 -0.11
2012 35 19.57 22.03 -2.46 22.44 -2.87