AccuPredict Driver Projection Results
NASCAR Cup Series
This is a historical results' page analyzing Accupredict's accuracy in driver projections. A novel idea, right? Checking how accurate an experts projections are.
Pennzoil 400 @ Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Race #3 of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Season - March 6th, 2022.
Picked Race Winner? NO
TOP-10
TOP-20
MID-TIER
LOW-TIER
| Driver | FIN | RNK | RNK +/- | PRJ FIN | PRJ +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bowman | 1 | 11 | -10 | 15.13 | -14.13 |
| Aric Almirola | 6 | 23 | -17 | 20.03 | -14.03 |
| Austin Cindric | 19 | 18 | 1 | 17.51 | 1.49 |
| Austin Dillon | 11 | 16 | -5 | 16.43 | -5.43 |
| BJ McLeod | 28 | 35 | -7 | 29.58 | -1.58 |
| Brad Keselowski | 24 | 9 | 15 | 13.78 | 10.22 |
| Bubba Wallace | 25 | 22 | 3 | 19.99 | 5.01 |
| Chase Briscoe | 35 | 14 | 21 | 15.77 | 19.23 |
| Chase Elliott | 9 | 4 | 5 | 11.43 | -2.43 |
| Chris Buescher | 18 | 20 | -2 | 18.34 | -0.34 |
| Christopher Bell | 10 | 10 | 0 | 14.02 | -4.02 |
| Cody Ware | 26 | 32 | -6 | 28.25 | -2.25 |
| Cole Custer | 33 | 25 | 8 | 20.13 | 12.87 |
| Corey Lajoie | 15 | 31 | -16 | 26.03 | -11.03 |
| Daniel Hemric | 22 | 21 | 1 | 19.82 | 2.18 |
| Daniel Suarez | 37 | 24 | 13 | 20.11 | 16.89 |
| Denny Hamlin | 32 | 8 | 24 | 13.52 | 18.48 |
| Erik Jones | 31 | 15 | 16 | 15.88 | 15.12 |
| Garrett Smithley | 30 | 36 | -6 | 29.91 | 0.09 |
| Greg Biffle | 34 | 33 | 1 | 28.74 | 5.26 |
| Harrison Burton | 16 | 27 | -11 | 20.78 | -4.78 |
| Joey Logano | 14 | 2 | 12 | 8.46 | 5.54 |
| Josh Bilicki | 29 | 37 | -8 | 29.91 | -0.91 |
| Justin Haley | 17 | 29 | -12 | 24.42 | -7.42 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12 | 12 | 0 | 15.45 | -3.45 |
| Kurt Busch | 13 | 19 | -6 | 17.94 | -4.94 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 13 | -9 | 15.75 | -11.75 |
| Kyle Larson | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7.25 | -5.25 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12.84 | -4.84 |
| Michael McDowell | 27 | 28 | -1 | 21.30 | 5.70 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 21 | 17 | 4 | 16.53 | 4.47 |
| Ross Chastain | 3 | 26 | -23 | 20.31 | -17.31 |
| Ryan Blaney | 36 | 3 | 33 | 10.01 | 25.99 |
| Todd Gilliland | 23 | 34 | -11 | 28.80 | -5.80 |
| Ty Dillon | 20 | 30 | -10 | 24.51 | -4.51 |
| Tyler Reddick | 7 | 7 | 0 | 13.29 | -6.29 |
| William Byron | 5 | 6 | -1 | 12.99 | -7.99 |
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View Accupredict's Projection History Performance by a helpful variety of groupings to better identify the tracks and drivers that it projects the best.
Accupredict Pages
Accupredict is my exclusive NASCAR driver finish position projection tool for Crew Chief and Owner subscribers. The projection algorithm is the work of research scientist Cliff DeJong using traditional and loop data statistics. I've had it online since the 2012 Daytona 500.
NASCAR CUP SERIES
NASCAR XFINITY SERIES
ACCUPREDICT ARTICLES by Cliff DeJong
The driver, track and race links in the tables link to more historical Accupredict data.
How I Calculate Difference (+/-)
Differences are calculated as: Actual Finish minus Projection
Which 'direction' the difference 'moves' is important. A difference that is negative means the driver finished better than projected. A difference that is positive means he finished worse than projected. A zero means Accupredict got the drivers finish position spot on.
Driver was projected to finish 12th. If the difference is calculated using the Absolute Value of the number (the number of positions 'off' without classifying the number positive or negative) then you're getting a range of eight positions. Four of which are worse than the projected finish.
In my experience, differences between +2 to -4 consistently, are the 'sweet spot' for favorable use of a driver based on Accupredicts projection.
When I show the Absolute Value (distance from zero that a number is on the number line, without considering direction. Absolute Value is always a positive number.) value of a number in addition to Real value.
The MEDIAN and the MEAN numbers in the sidebar both use the Absoulte Value of the number difference between Rank/Predicted Finish and Actual Finish. Otherwise, the positive and negative differences cancel each other out and calculate to 0. I show the STANDARD DEVIATION and the FREQUENCY TABLE using both the absolute and real numbers and note there which is being shown.
I've watched over the years, Accupredict is more conservative in projecting a drivers finish and thus has more negative differences. That is, projecting a driver to finish 18th - they finish 14th - resulting in a difference of (ACTUAL - RANK) 14 - 18 = -4. Whereas, the other way around is a +4. To me, knowing that I missed the projection of a driver by 4 spots...and they were 4 spots better, is a lot better than being 4 spots worse. One way I get more points, the other way I get fewer.
Also, the large positive numbers are the result of a 'top-tier' driver ranked in the top-10 being the victim of a wreck, mechanical failure or unfortunate timed caution.
USING ABSOLUTE VALUES
8.70 Mean (Average) number of positions 'off' that the projections were.
7.00 Median (the middle number when all are sorted, descending) number of 'positions off' that the projections were. Median helps account for outliers in the sequence that might skew the Mean with such a small population of data.
7.74 Standard Deviation measures the dispersion of each driver 'positions off' in relationship to the Mean (Average).
The Frequency table below shows the distribution of values (Accupredict projection vs actual finish position) projections were 'off by'.
| VALUE | FREQUENCY | % |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8.11% |
| 1 | 6 | 16.22% |
| 2 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 3 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 4 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 5 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 6 | 3 | 8.11% |
| 7 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 8 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 9 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 10 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 11 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 12 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 13 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 15 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 16 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 17 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 21 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 23 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 24 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 33 | 1 | 2.70% |
USING INTEGER VALUES
11.65 When the Standard Deviation is large, look at the Frequency Table for outliers (a projection that is way off) to see if that has skewed the numbers. The larger the difference in range of numbers, the larger the Standard Deviation will be.
The Frequency table below shows the distribution of values (Accupredict projection vs actual finish position) projections were 'off by' using both positive and negative numbers.
| VALUE | FREQUENCY | % |
|---|---|---|
| -23 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -17 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -16 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -12 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -11 | 2 | 5.41% |
| -10 | 2 | 5.41% |
| -9 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -8 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -7 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -6 | 3 | 8.11% |
| -5 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -2 | 1 | 2.70% |
| -1 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 0 | 3 | 8.11% |
| 1 | 4 | 10.81% |
| 3 | 2 | 5.41% |
| 4 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 5 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 8 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 12 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 13 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 15 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 16 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 21 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 24 | 1 | 2.70% |
| 33 | 1 | 2.70% |