AccuPredict Driver Projections
NASCAR Cup Series
Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!
United Rentals 500 @ Phoenix Raceway
This Week's Race! Race #4 of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Season - March 12th, 2023.
METRICS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT PROJECTION
6 of 6 metrics are in use: Recent Form YTD Driver Rating Track Type Form Track Driver Rating Practice Qualifying
View this completed race projection with results and performance metrics included.
Accupredict Pages
Accupredict is my exclusive NASCAR driver finish position projection tool for Crew Chief and Owner subscribers. The projection algorithm is the work of research scientist Cliff DeJong using traditional and loop data statistics. I've had it online since the 2012 Daytona 500.
NASCAR CUP SERIES
NASCAR XFINITY SERIES
ACCUPREDICT ARTICLES by Cliff DeJong
The driver, track and race links in the tables link to more historical Accupredict data.
PROJECTION NOTE: Accupredict is a little too hot on Zane Smith - it's taking into account his Truck Series performance at Phoenix which is 1st, 5th and 2nd his last three races here.
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| Driver | # | Make | RNK | PRJ FIN | AP Win | AP T3 | AP T5 | AP T10 | AP Win % | AP T3 % | AP T5 % | AP T10 % | RCNT Form | YTD DR | Type | Track | PRAC | ST | DK $ | FD $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 5 | Chevrolet | 1 | 10.21 | +800 | +250 | +150 | -170 | 19% | 28% | 41% | 64% | 14.7 | 88.4 | 9.9 | 100.0 | 1.0 | 1 | 11,100 | 13,000 |
| Joey Logano | 22 | Ford | 2 | 10.40 | +850 | +250 | +150 | -170 | 18% | 27% | 40% | 63% | 12.3 | 93.5 | 8.8 | 116.2 | 4.0 | 16 | 10,800 | 14,000 |
| Ryan Blaney | 12 | Ford | 3 | 11.32 | +1050 | +350 | +175 | -140 | 15% | 23% | 35% | 58% | 14.7 | 76.9 | 9.6 | 108.8 | 2.0 | 8 | 10,300 | 13,500 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11 | Toyota | 4 | 11.37 | +1100 | +350 | +200 | -140 | 14% | 23% | 35% | 58% | 9.7 | 101.8 | 15.9 | 105.1 | 19.0 | 2 | 9,600 | 10,500 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | Ford | 5 | 12.86 | +1750 | +500 | +275 | -100 | 9% | 17% | 27% | 51% | 15.3 | 89.2 | 14.0 | 107.8 | 9.0 | 15 | 9,000 | 11,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | 6 | Ford | 6 | 13.01 | +1850 | +500 | +275 | -100 | 9% | 16% | 27% | 50% | 16.8 | 91.6 | 17.6 | 88.2 | 6.0 | 4 | 7,800 | 7,000 |
| William Byron | 24 | Chevrolet | 7 | 13.30 | +2050 | +550 | +300 | +100 | 8% | 15% | 25% | 49% | 13.8 | 99.1 | 12.9 | 86.0 | 20.0 | 3 | 9,800 | 9,500 |
| Christopher Bell | 20 | Toyota | 8 | 13.91 | +2650 | +650 | +350 | +125 | 6% | 13% | 23% | 46% | 13.6 | 79.1 | 6.9 | 94.6 | 24.0 | 5 | 8,800 | 10,000 |
| Kyle Busch | 8 | Chevrolet | 9 | 13.95 | +2650 | +700 | +350 | +125 | 6% | 13% | 23% | 46% | 18.3 | 107.0 | 15.5 | 112.3 | 29.0 | 9 | 10,600 | 12,500 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 19 | Toyota | 10 | 14.27 | +3100 | +750 | +375 | +125 | 5% | 12% | 21% | 44% | 17.3 | 90.0 | 13.0 | 99.2 | 17.0 | 13 | 9,200 | 12,000 |
| Alex Bowman | 48 | Chevrolet | 11 | 15.43 | +6350 | +1100 | +500 | +150 | 3% | 8% | 17% | 39% | 15.3 | 98.7 | 23.0 | 70.7 | 3.0 | 18 | 8,600 | 8,500 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | Chevrolet | 12 | 15.56 | +7000 | +1150 | +500 | +150 | 2% | 8% | 16% | 38% | 11.8 | 81.8 | 10.5 | 76.9 | 26.0 | 6 | 10,000 | 11,000 |
| Zane Smith | 38 | Ford | 13 | 15.78 | +8600 | +1250 | +525 | +175 | 2% | 8% | 16% | 37% | 13.0 | 96.8 | 17.0 | 121.0 | 21.0 | 34 | 5,200 | 4,800 |
| Daniel Suarez | 99 | Chevrolet | 14 | 15.81 | +8900 | +1250 | +550 | +175 | 2% | 7% | 16% | 37% | 14.4 | 88.6 | 16.9 | 67.2 | 13.0 | 11 | 8,500 | 8,000 |
| Austin Cindric | 2 | Ford | 15 | 16.70 | +45400 | +1750 | +675 | +200 | 0% | 5% | 13% | 33% | 16.8 | 74.2 | 15.4 | 100.4 | 18.0 | 20 | 7,100 | 6,800 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 16 | Chevrolet | 16 | 17.78 | +2950 | +925 | +250 | 0% | 3% | 10% | 28% | 12.1 | 58.6 | 17.5 | 88.3 | 11.0 | 22 | 6,200 | 5,200 | |
| Chase Briscoe | 14 | Ford | 17 | 18.07 | +3400 | +1000 | +275 | 0% | 3% | 9% | 27% | 18.1 | 46.8 | 16.8 | 94.5 | 5.0 | 24 | 8,400 | 9,000 | |
| Chris Buescher | 17 | Ford | 18 | 18.44 | +4300 | +1125 | +300 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 25% | 16.7 | 80.6 | 20.0 | 58.9 | 12.0 | 21 | 6,600 | 5,800 | |
| Bubba Wallace | 23 | Toyota | 19 | 18.70 | +5100 | +1225 | +300 | 0% | 2% | 8% | 24% | 18.1 | 77.9 | 13.6 | 53.7 | 16.0 | 19 | 8,200 | 7,200 | |
| Erik Jones | 43 | Chevrolet | 20 | 18.90 | +5850 | +1300 | +325 | 0% | 2% | 7% | 23% | 16.5 | 65.9 | 15.9 | 75.1 | 27.0 | 10 | 7,600 | 6,200 | |
| Tyler Reddick | 45 | Toyota | 21 | 19.04 | +1350 | +325 | 0% | 0% | 7% | 23% | 19.8 | 64.9 | 20.6 | 88.3 | 22.0 | 12 | 9,400 | 8,200 | ||
| Aric Almirola | 10 | Ford | 22 | 19.30 | +1450 | +350 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 22% | 20.7 | 68.1 | 14.8 | 84.5 | 10.0 | 31 | 6,900 | 7,500 | ||
| Ty Gibbs | 54 | Toyota | 23 | 19.44 | +1525 | +375 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 21% | 23.5 | 61.0 | 24.0 | 115.2 | 28.0 | 14 | 6,700 | 6,500 | ||
| Josh Berry | 9 | Chevrolet | 24 | 19.76 | +1700 | +400 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 20% | 29.0 | 85.1 | 27.0 | 93.7 | 23.0 | 17 | 8,000 | 7,800 | ||
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 47 | Chevrolet | 25 | 19.91 | +1775 | +425 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 19% | 22.2 | 75.1 | 24.0 | 57.7 | 7.0 | 23 | 5,800 | 4,000 | ||
| Harrison Burton | 21 | Ford | 26 | 20.20 | +1950 | +450 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 18% | 22.8 | 50.3 | 22.6 | 90.8 | 8.0 | 27 | 5,700 | 3,000 | ||
| Austin Dillon | 3 | Chevrolet | 27 | 20.61 | +2250 | +500 | 0% | 0% | 4% | 16% | 16.7 | 65.3 | 16.0 | 64.3 | 15.0 | 30 | 7,500 | 5,500 | ||
| Michael McDowell | 34 | Ford | 28 | 21.25 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.4 | 64.3 | 20.3 | 47.3 | 30.0 | 7 | 5,400 | 3,500 | ||||
| Noah Gragson | 42 | Chevrolet | 29 | 22.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.4 | 44.8 | 24.7 | 105.6 | 25.0 | 32 | 6,000 | 4,500 | ||||
| Justin Haley | 31 | Chevrolet | 30 | 22.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 18.5 | 68.2 | 23.1 | 77.5 | 33.0 | 26 | 6,400 | 4,200 | ||||
| Corey Lajoie | 7 | Chevrolet | 31 | 22.54 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 21.8 | 68.9 | 25.9 | 43.0 | 14.0 | 28 | 5,600 | 5,000 | ||||
| Todd Gilliland | 15 | Ford | 32 | 25.16 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 24.6 | 48.6 | 24.5 | 72.8 | 31.0 | 29 | 4,900 | 2,500 | ||||
| Ryan Preece | 41 | Ford | 33 | 26.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 30.7 | 54.1 | 27.0 | 48.7 | 32.0 | 25 | 7,300 | 6,000 | ||||
| Ty Dillon | 77 | Chevrolet | 34 | 28.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25.9 | 30.4 | 26.4 | 57.5 | 34.0 | 35 | 5,000 | 2,500 | ||||
| Cody Ware | 51 | Ford | 35 | 29.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.9 | 36.7 | 30.5 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 36 | 4,700 | 2,000 | ||||
| BJ McLeod | 78 | Chevrolet | 36 | 29.76 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 28.1 | 33.4 | 32.9 | 41.9 | 36.0 | 33 | 4,600 | 2,000 |