AccuPredict Driver Projections
NASCAR Cup Series
Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!
Toyota / Save Mart 350 @ Sonoma Raceway
This Week's Race! Race #16 of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Season - June 12th, 2022.
METRICS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT PROJECTION
6 of 6 metrics are in use: Recent Form YTD Driver Rating Track Type Form Track Driver Rating Practice Qualifying
View this completed race projection with results and performance metrics included.
Accupredict Pages
Accupredict is my exclusive NASCAR driver finish position projection tool for Crew Chief and Owner subscribers. The projection algorithm is the work of research scientist Cliff DeJong using traditional and loop data statistics. I've had it online since the 2012 Daytona 500.
NASCAR CUP SERIES
NASCAR XFINITY SERIES
ACCUPREDICT ARTICLES by Cliff DeJong
The driver, track and race links in the tables link to more historical Accupredict data.
PROJECTION NOTE: Take some of the AP Win, T5 and T10 values with 'logical caution' (I'm talking about you Josh Bilicki). Most of the odds are solid I believe. I'm combing through my code to see why it is not displaying more expected values for some. Read the new article by Cliff (linked in the side links) on how he determined the formula to convert Predicted Finish into a probability and odds.
NEW! I've added 8 new columns that show Accupredict's Predicted Finish calculated as a Percentage and American Odds to Win, Top-3, Top-5 and Top-10. The intention is to help find 'value' for drivers by comparing AP's Odds to the Sportsbooks. If the Sportsbook is offering payouts above the AP Odds there may be value there. Hopefully, the Win, Top-3, Top-5 and Top-10 percentages will help in your decision-making as well.
Maybe it IS rocket science?
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