Accupredict Driver Finish Projections

Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!

The Difference between AP Finish & Rank?

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Accupredict Performance History at this Track and Track Type

Texas Motor Speedway
  • 25 races
  • 6 winners picked
  • 148 correct top-10's
  • Avg -0.02 positions off
  • 8.92 std dev off
  • 932 drivers evaluated
Large Oval Track Group
  • 121 races
  • 27 winners picked
  • 730 correct top-10's
  • Avg -0.30 positions off
  • 8.79 std dev off
  • 4,763 drivers evaluated

Sleepers / Under-ranked Contenders

Ideal for DFS pivots, fantasy sleepers, or value betting plays. These drivers are ranked outside the Top-10 in AP projections, but their historical Driver Rating at this track suggests they could finish much better.

Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch


AP Rank: 11th

Projected Finish: 15.14

Track Driver Rating: 85.59


Erik Jones

Erik Jones


AP Rank: 20th

Projected Finish: 19.92

Track Driver Rating: 85.91


Potential Top-20 Breakouts

Could be a sneaky DFS Value Pick or Long Shot Top-10 Bet. These drivers are currently ranked outside the Top-20 but have a strong statistical chance to outperform their ranking.

Josh Berry

Josh Berry


AP Rank: 29th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 24.56


Katherine Legge

Katherine Legge


AP Rank: 30th

Variance: +6 spots

Projected Finish: 24.99


Metrics Used

BOLD METRICS are currently contributing to projection. 4 of 6 (66.7%) metrics are in use.

  • Qualifying
  • Practice
  • Recent Form
  • YTD Driver Rating
  • Track Type Form
  • Track Driver Rating

An official entry list has not been released yet. As a result, Accupredict is currently generating projections based on drivers listed in the Driver Standings.

Accupredict projections are recalculated as new race metric data is available. (Last updated Monday, April 28th at 11:55am ET)

VISUAL DRIVER PROJECTION RANGE

A visual breakdown of projected finish positions for each driver.

What This Graph Shows
  • Each bar represents a driver’s projected finish range.
  • Darker bars = More confidence in their position.
  • Wider bars = More uncertainty (larger prediction range).
How to Read This
  • Short Bars → Consistent, reliable drivers.
  • Long Bars → Unpredictable, high variance.
  • Rank Order → Sorted by best projected finish.
Your Strategy
  • Short-range drivers: More reliable picks for DFS & betting.
  • Long-range drivers: Higher risk, bigger upside.

Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

Sunday, May 4th, 2025

Texas Motor Speedway , Fort Worth, TX

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