Accupredict Driver Finish Projections

Accupredict driver finish projections for the upcoming race. It ain't rocket science. But it's pretty darn close!

The Difference between AP Finish & Rank?

Accupredict Performance History at this Track and Track Type

Texas Motor Speedway

25 races
6 winners picked
148 correct top-10's
Avg -0.02 positions off
8.92 std dev off
932 drivers evaluated

Large Oval Track Group

121 races
27 winners picked
730 correct top-10's
Avg -0.30 positions off
8.79 std dev off
4,763 drivers evaluated

Sleepers / Under-ranked Contenders

Ideal for DFS pivots, fantasy sleepers, or value betting plays. These drivers are ranked outside the Top-10 in AP projections, but their historical Driver Rating at this track suggests they could finish much better.

Kyle Busch

AP Rank: 11th

Projected Finish: 15.14

Track Driver Rating: 85.59

Erik Jones

AP Rank: 20th

Projected Finish: 19.92

Track Driver Rating: 85.91

Potential Top-20 Breakouts

Could be a sneaky DFS Value Pick or Long Shot Top-10 Bet. These drivers are currently ranked outside the Top-20 but have a strong statistical chance to outperform their ranking.

Josh Berry

AP Rank: 29th

Variance: +5 spots

Projected Finish: 24.56

Katherine Legge

AP Rank: 30th

Variance: +6 spots

Projected Finish: 24.99

Metrics Used

BOLD METRICS are currently contributing to projection. 4 of 6 (66.7%) metrics are in use.

Qualifying
Practice
Recent Form
YTD Driver Rating
Track Type Form
Track Driver Rating

An official entry list has not been released yet. As a result, Accupredict is currently generating projections based on drivers listed in the Driver Standings.

Accupredict projections are recalculated as new race metric data is available. (Last updated Monday, April 28th at 11:55am ET)

VISUAL DRIVER PROJECTION RANGE

A visual breakdown of projected finish positions for each driver.

What This Graph Shows

Each bar represents a driver’s projected finish range.
Darker bars = More confidence in their position.
Wider bars = More uncertainty (larger prediction range).

How to Read This

Short Bars → Consistent, reliable drivers.
Long Bars → Unpredictable, high variance.
Rank Order → Sorted by best projected finish.

Your Strategy

Short-range drivers: More reliable picks for DFS & betting.
Long-range drivers: Higher risk, bigger upside.

Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

Sunday, May 4th, 2025

Texas Motor Speedway , Fort Worth, TX

The clock is ticking! Don't be a spectator - lock in your picks before the green flag drops!

* Fair Average Values in use:
Current Form: 24.00
Track Type Form: 24.50
Track Driver Rating: 65.86

Want to see the full rankings and all metrics? Start Free 2-Week Trial

Understanding Predicted Finish and Driver Rank in Accupredict

The Accupredict tool ranks drivers based on a calculated predicted finish, which is an estimate of where a driver is likely to finish in the race. This predicted finish is calculated using various metrics such as current form, track type performance, and year-to-date driver rating.

However, just like in Qualifying, there can be very small differences between the qualifying times of multiple drivers - yet they are ordered numerically based on sorting.

In Accupredict, a cluster of five drivers might have predicted finishes of 21.19, 21.35, 21.50, 21.53, and 21.83.

Very closely grouped, still these drivers are assigned an AP Rank of 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, and 25th.

This highlights how tightly grouped they are, much like how fractions of a second in qualifying can separate drivers on the starting grid.

What does this mean?

In scenarios like this, where drivers are closely ranked, it’s important to look for subtle advantages that might give one driver an edge over the others. Here are some strategies to identify potential differences:

Sort by Practice and Qualifying Performance: Just like in real qualifying sessions, sorting the Accupredict table by Practice or Qualifying performance can reveal which drivers might be better positioned to capitalize on their starting rank.
Sort by Key Accupredict Metrics: Sorting the table by Current Form, Year-to-Date Driver Rating, Average Finish at this Track Type, or Average Finish at this Track could provide insights into which driver has been performing better under similar conditions, offering a competitive edge.
Assess Driver Predictability: Another way to refine your analysis is to consider how accurate Accupredict has been for each driver in the past. If a driver consistently finishes close to their predicted finish, they might be a safer pick compared to drivers with more variability.

TL;DR: Missing data can distort NASCAR driver rankings, giving some an unfair advantage or disadvantage. The Fair Average Value system dynamically fills in missing stats with series-based averages, ensuring accurate, balanced projections. This approach maintains ranking integrity and improves transparency for users analyzing race data.

Handling Missing Data in Driver Rankings: The Fair Average Value Approach

Why This Matters

In NASCAR stats, ranking drivers fairly can be tricky when some lack historical data - especially when Cup drivers enter lower series like Xfinity or Trucks. Without adjustments, missing data could unfairly boost or hurt their ranking.

The Problem

Missing values affect rankings based on how the metric is used:

Advantageous Missing Values: If a driver lacks data for Current Form Finish or Track Form (where lower numbers are better), their default zero value could unfairly improve their ranking.

Disadvantageous Missing Values: If they lack YTD Driver Rating or Track Driver Rating (where higher numbers are better), their ranking suffers.

A zero placeholder isn't realistic. I needed a fair fallback value.

The Solution: Fair Average Value

To correct this, I implemented a Fair Average Value system, ensuring missing data doesn't skew rankings.

Calculating Fair Average Values
- Instead of using arbitrary numbers, the system calculates a fair replacement value based on real data from the series.
- This keeps rankings realistic and avoids artificial inflation or deflation.
Applying Fair Averages in Rankings
- If a driver has data, their actual value is used.
- If they don't, the fair average is applied to maintain ranking integrity.
Transparency on Accupredict
- Fair averages are stored in the database and displayed on the Accupredict page.
- Metrics using fair averages are marked with an '*', and a summary is shown above the table.
- This helps subscribers understand how rankings were adjusted.

You might notice a driver with an '*' next to a metric value, even when you'd expect them to have their own historical data. This means their actual performance aligns exactly with the fair average value, making their own data the basis for the replacement. This provides another point of comparison - consider how that driver stacks up against what you already know, given that value.

Why This Matters for Subscribers

When higher-tier drivers race in lower-tier Series, they often outperform their ranking - even with adjustments. This can happen even when lower-tier drivers move up a Series. Showing the fair average values keeps the system transparent and helps users interpret the data accurately.

Conclusion

The Fair Average Value system improves accuracy and fairness in driver rankings, preventing extreme shifts due to missing data. This ensures NASCAR fantasy and betting users can trust the projections while understanding how adjustments are made.