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NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 LAS VEGAS, KOBALT 400

NASCAR Fantasy Live commercial

Last week’s race took a toll on many of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters. We hope for more consistent finishes from the top drivers during the first leg of the west coast swing in Las Vegas. This week’s recommended strategy is to pick your three top drivers and fill the final two spots with value picks.

NOT PLAYING FAVORITES

There is not a team that is a clear-cut favorite statistically this week.

Because of this, my first pick this week is one of the consistent drivers in the series coming off his first win of the season. Over the last five races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has a sixth-place average finish and the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Half of his starts since 2005 have resulted in a top-5 finish at the track. Johnson has an excellent chance of a top-5 finish and is a low-risk option on your roster.

Carl Edwards, with a 5.6 average finish position over the past five races, has the best average finish numbers in the series. His salary cap number took a dive after Daytona and can be on your roster at a better price. Like Johnson, Edwards has finished in the top-5 in half of his races since 2005. Historically, Edwards spends 70% of his laps in the top-15, which is third-best in the series behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Maybe as a NASCAR Fantasy Live writer, I can be too technical when I am annoyed that the Fantasy Live commercial airing during races boasts a lineup that is significantly over the Fantasy Live salary cap. Random misgivings aside, NASCAR moves west for the next three weeks after a cold weekend in Georgia.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have led the most laps over the last five races, and have some of the best points-per-dollar rates of any drivers. Both drivers will stay off my roster this week. For Gordon, his car has been competitive. Luck has not been on his side so far in 2015. This may not be fair, but luck plays an important role in Fantasy NASCAR. Tony Stewart is off to a slow start this season, which is not unusual for him. I need to see more from his team before I consider rostering him.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Logano and Harvick. Their numbers are very close with a slight edge going to Logano. In the last five years, Logano has an average finish position of 12.2. His team has started the season hot and this pick has more to do with the start of the season. Since 2005, Logano has spent 62% of his laps in the top-15. My biggest concern with Logano is that he only has one top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Given his early success, he is worth the risk. Qualifying position may determine if I go with Harvick or Logano when I officially set my roster late in the week.

With the top drivers absorbing a high percentage of the salary cap, the remaining two spots will be filled by budget drivers. David Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish over the last five years. With Kyle Busch’s equipment, he has a good chance for a top-20 finish. Trevor Bayne has an 18th place average in his last four races at Las Vegas. He also has three top-20 finishes in four attempts. Though I am not expecting points from fast laps and laps led from either driver, a middle-of-the-pack finish will make both drivers valuable.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race for each driver. Then, we divide the average points by the Fantasy Live salary cap number. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect for each fantasy dollar. Since I narrowly kept Kevin Harvick off my roster, I will use his numbers to illustrate the points-per-dollar formula.

KEVIN HARVICK AT LAS VEGAS

Average finish position last five Las Vegas races: 16th place equals 28 fantasy points per race. Start-to-finish differential: Plus 1 equals 1 fantasy point per race. Laps Led: 29 equals 2.9 points per race.

  • Fast Laps: 72 equals 7.2 points per race
  • Total points per race last five Las Vegas races: 39.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Points per Dollar: 39.1 / 28 equals 1.41 Fantasy Points Per Dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points-per-dollar for each driver. Suggested picks are in bold. Brian Scott and Matt DiBenedetto have no 2015 or track data and are not included on this list. Good luck having a successful third week of the Fantasy NASCAR season. Feel free to share your roster decisions in the comment section at the end of the article.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.62
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.17
  • Kasey Kahne 2.17
  • Matt Kenseth 2.16
  • Jeff Gordon 1.88
  • Kevin Harvick 1.41
  • Denny Hamlin 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.27
  • Brad Keselowski 1.21
  • Kyle Larson 1.03
  • Jamie McMurray 0.89

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.84
  • Carl Edwards 2.61
  • Paul Menard 2.33
  • Brian Vickers 1.41
  • Greg Biffle 1.31
  • Ryan Newman 1.15
  • Clint Bowyer 1.00

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.03
  • Austin Dillon 1.28
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.88
  • Aric Almirola 0.79
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 3.23
  • David Ragan 2.19
  • Justin Allgaier 1.90
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • Casey Mears 1.56
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.66
  • Ryan Blaney (-1.58) *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.00
  • Reed Sorenson 2.29
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • Regan Smith 1.94
  • Travis Kvapil 1.60
  • David Gilliland 1.57
  • Alex Bowman 0.80
  • Josh Wise 0.23
  • Brendan Gaughan 0.00
  • Cole Whitt 0.00
  • Landon Cassill (-0.12)
  • Michael McDowell (-0.13)
  • JJ Yeley (-0.18)

* Jeb Burton and Ryan Blaney are using their 2015 totals from all races since they have no track history.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kobalt 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Kobalt 400

Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson on winning his first race of the season and virtually ensuring he will have a spot in the 2015 Chase. Once again we saw which teams will be competitive on a weekly basis and which teams have a lot of work to do if they want to compete for the championship this year.

KOBALT 400

This week the series heads out west to Las Vegas Nevada to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the Kobalt 400. This is another mile and a half oval track with just slightly less banking than at Atlanta. This will mean that the speeds will be a little lower this week and the race is only 400-miles, so there should be less engine issues.

Other than that, the drivers who were fast at Atlanta should be fast once again this week at Las Vegas. I also think that the track won’t be as slick as the track was at Atlanta and the temperatures should be higher too. With that said lets see how are drivers will fare this week.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the race this week at Las Vegas. Kevin was the fastest car for most of the weekend at Atlanta where he came from the back of the pack to the front in the blink of an eye. A poor restart late in the race probably cost this team their first win of the season. If things go according to plan this week Kevin will be sitting in victory lane at the end of the race.

Joey Logano: Joey was fast all weekend also and the team just missed with their final adjustment of last week’s race. The engine issues I was worried about after Daytona have been corrected and this team should have another fast car this week. The temperature might change more during this week’s race and that means they will have to stay on top of the adjustments they need to make to be in contention at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie won the race at Atlanta, so he should have a car capable of winning back to back races. Jimmie and crew-chief Chad Knaus work well together and they seem to make the right adjustments to get their car where they want it to be late in the race. It always seems like when Jimmie wins a race he wins multiple races in a short period of time and that could happen again.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff had a good car last week also, but his luck just wasn’t of the good type. Bad things don’t happen to good teams consistently, so this week his luck should change and he will have a car capable of winning this race. Jeff really wants to have a great year before he retires from full-time competition at the end of the season.

Matt Kenseth: It’s hard to believe that Matt hasn’t won a points race in over a year, and I think that will come to an end very shortly. Matt is too good of a driver and has equipment that puts him in contention every week. He also remains calm throughout the race and makes good decisions which give him the opportunity to win races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale had another great race and almost made the pass on Jimmie on the final restart of the race at Atlanta. This team looks like they have improved from a very good season last year and they will win multiple races before the start of the Chase. Dale finished second in this race last season and looks like he could be poised to take one more position in this year’s race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t had the kind of start he was looking for heading into the start of this season, but he won this race last year and finished third here in 2013. Those facts might give this team the confidence to come into this week and win their first race of the season. Brad is one of the best drivers on the circuit and this team will qualify for the Chase.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has a string of four straight top five finishes here. Last week they just couldn’t make the correct adjustment to find the speed they needed to have a shot at winning the race. I think Carl has the equipment to be a serious contender for a championship once again this season and once he gets more comfortable with his new team they will start winning races.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey’s best finish at Las Vegas is second which he has accomplished twice. He has also finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts at this track and he looked good in last week’s race. This team would love to get a win early this year to grab their spot in the Chase without having to wait until the final few races to know if they are in or not.

Ryan Newman: Once again, Ryan is quietly going about his season. You don’t hear much about him, but he always seems to be hanging around the top ten and avoids getting into huge trouble on the track. He has always run well at Vegas and this week should be no different. One of these week’s he is going to surprise people and win a race. Don’t be surprised, Ryan is communicating with his team and they understand each other and make the necessary adjustments to stay in contention every week.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Regan Smith

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 ATLANTA, FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500

This week’s race in Atlanta will be hard-pressed to have a better racing stretch than the final twenty laps at Daytona. Congratulations to Joey Logano on earning the first win of the season. The NASCAR series moves north for a newly-scheduled March race in Atlanta. For Fantasy Live, the strategy changes from the restrictor plate tracks. This week, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill in your final two roster spots with budget drivers.

The first pick on my team dominated the majority of the race last year. Kevin Harvick was in front of the race until a late wreck sent him to an average finish. With 296 laps led and 179 fast laps, Harvick is the best in the series in both categories over the last five races. His lap-to-lap performance over the same time span is second to Jeff Gordon. His historical numbers are not as impressive, with only seven Top 10 finishes in his last 16 Atlanta starts, but I feel his recent success overcomes his historical data.

Jeff Gordon has the best number in the series at Hampton. He was on my team last year when he wrecked early in the race. He was running some of the fastest laps in the field, but there were not enough cautions in the race for Gordon to get back on the lead lap. Over the last five races, Gordon has an average finish position of 7.8 and has the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Gordon has finished in the Top Ten eleven times and the Top Twenty fifteen times. Gordon has an excellent chance for success this weekend.

By a narrow margin, Jimmie Johnson beat out Matt Kenseth for the third roster spot. Kenseth has more recent success, but Johnson has better long-term numbers at the track. Also, I think the Hendrick cars will have a slight advantage with the new setup rules. Johnson has a 14th place average over the last five races. Historically, he boasts eight Top Five finishes in sixteen races. I like his chances on my team this weekend.

With three of the top drivers in the series on my roster, there is little room for the final two roster spots. Regan Smith’s value climbed to $7.50 this week. With Kurt Busch’s equipment, he should provide great value at that price. Keep an eye on his status towards the end of the week, as he is expecting a child anytime. Michael Annett finished 21st in last year’s race. If he comes close to that number, he will be be a valuable choice.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a Salary Cap format. Our formula uses the number from the last five races at a given track. We calculate the average number of points earned by each driver. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to identify the driver with the best value. Matt Kenseth is one of the most consistent drivers in the series, but is being left off my roster in favor of Jimmie Johnson. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers to illustrate our formula.

MATT KENSETH AT ATLANTA

  • Average finish position last five Atlanta races: 8.6 average equals 35.4 Fantasy Live Points
  • Start to finish differential: Plus 1.6 = 1.6 Fantasy Live Points
  • Laps led: 117 laps led = 11.7 Fantasy Live Points
  • Fast laps: 63 fast laps = 6.3 Fantasy Live Points
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 55 points per race
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $26
  • Fantasy Points Per Race: 55 points / $26 = 2.11 points per dollar

Please review the numbers below for each driver’s points per fantasy dollar. Suggested picks are in bold and good luck building on your early success in the 2015.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.02
  • Jeff Gordon 2.44
  • Matt Kenseth 2.11
  • Denny Hamlin 1.92
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.53
  • Joey Logano 1.53
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.35
  • Jamie McMurray 1.24
  • Kyle Larson 1.20
  • Brad Keselowski 0.97
  • Kasey Kahne 0.53

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.46
  • Carl Edwards 1.96
  • Paul Menard 1.22
  • Ryan Newman 1.21
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Clint Bowyer 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex 2.38
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.55
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.34
  • Aric Almirola 1.17
  • Austin Dillon 1.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 4.09
  • Danica Patrick 2.52
  • Justin Allgaier 2.30
  • Casey Mears 1.80
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.71

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Regan Smith 4.53
  • Landon Cassill 3.88
  • Reed Sorenson 3.62
  • Michael Annett 3.37
  • JJ Yeley 2.95
  • Ty Dillon 2.87
  • Brett Moffitt 2.83
  • Cole Whitt 2.82
  • David Gilliland 2.62
  • David Ragan 1.23
  • Alex Bowman 0.60
  • Josh Wise 0.60
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY, Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500

kasey kahne wins atlanta

The 2015 NASCAR season is now officially underway. Congratulations to Joey Logano on winning his first Daytona 500 in an interesting race. The win will probably lock Joey into the Chase grid, so now he can relax and just go out and race. I would also like to wish Kyle Busch a speedy recovery and I hope he can get back on the track as soon as possible.

FOLDS OF HONOR QUIKTRIP 500

Now that the Daytona 500 is in the books the teams can start focusing on the types of tracks they will spend most of their weekends racing on. This week the series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the running of the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. Atlanta is a mile and a half quad-oval and is one of the fastest tracks on the circuit. A 500-mile race here is going to test engines and tires and I am sure we will see more than one driver have problems with these issues.

Carl Edwards: Carl is my pick to win the race this week at Atlanta. Carl has won three races at this track and I believe that he is going to have faster cars this season with Joe Gibbs Racing then he had last year at Roush/Fenway. The Gibbs and Hendrick teams had the fastest cars last weekend and I think these two teams are ahead of the curve at this point of the season.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has five career wins here and has run very well on this type of track over the past year. If he can keep out of trouble early in the race, he will have a shot at the win when the laps wind down. Hopefully his pit crew is a little more consistent this year than last season and they can service the car and get Jeff out in at least the same position he entered in.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie also has three career wins at Atlanta and I think he will have a better season this year than last year where he struggled for a stretch in the middle of the thirty-six race season. I think this team will once again win multiple races before the Chase begins and will be vying for a championship once again.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is looking to break his winless streak and I think he will do it at some point early in the season. Matt has yet to win a race at Atlanta, but he has finished in the top five here in a third of the races he has started including a second place finish here last season. I think this race will tell me a lot about where this team is and how well they will compete this year.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the very first race of his career at this very track. He hasn’t won here since, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his last ten starts here. This team will pick up right where they left off last season and will definitely be in the hunt for a second straight championship this year. He should be fast every week once again and win some more poles.

Joey Logano: I think I will stay away from Joey this week just because of the two Ford engines that blew at Daytona last weekend. This is a 500-mile race and I just want to be sure that the issue Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney had at Daytona is fixed. I don’t think it will take them long to figure out what went wrong and get the problem rectified, but just to be safe I will run other drivers this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has one win at Atlanta during his career and this is the type of track he loves to run at. He likes to run the high line and carry his speed through the corners. As fast as his car was at Daytona he should be confident he will have one of the faster cars on the track once again this weekend.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won the race here last fall and that win propelled him into the Chase. This year he would like to win a race much earlier in the season, so he is locked in the Chase and doesn’t have to worry about winning with just a couple of races to go before the Chase begins. Like Dale, Kasey loves to run the high line at this track and if he can keep his car off the wall he will be a contender at the end of the race.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won three races at Atlanta and I think he will have a much better year than he had last season. If Kevin Harvick can have a fast car every week, Tony should have one equally as fast. I think he will win multiple races this year and make the Chase. This week will tell me if this team has improved since last season or if they still have a lot of work to do to become contenders on a weekly basis.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has one win at this track and finished 3rd here last fall. I think Denny’s back is feeling fine once again and he is going to be more comfortable in his car every week. That in itself will help him win a few races this season and he might get his first win this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Tony Stewart
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Driver of the #18
  • Driver of the #41

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Carl Edwards
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Joey Logano

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Daytona International Speedway, Daytona 500

hendrick motorsports vs joe gibbs racing

I am going to make this short and sweet this week because of the qualifying format for the Daytona 500. Next week when NASCAR returns to the regular qualifying format I will have a full article ready to go early in the week.

HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS vs JOE GIBBS RACING

It looks to me like this is going to be a race between the Hendrick Motorsports drivers and the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers. I think Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth will be the two drivers fighting for the win this Sunday. As we all know, anyone can win a race at Daytona, so nothing is written in stone.

One piece of advice before I give my picks for this week’s race. Don’t waste drivers you will need later in the season in the Yahoo league.

You only get to start a driver nine times during the season and when you get towards October and November you will be happy to have good drivers left to start. The A group you can use anyone you want to, but the B and C groups are a different story. These picks could possibly change depending on what happens in the practices that are left to run.

With that said, here are my picks for the Daytona 500.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Aric Almirola
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • David Gilliland

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Martin Truex Jr.
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: David Gilliland

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch