Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Martinsville Speedway, STP 500

Congratulations to Brad Keselowski on getting his first win of the season at Auto Club Speedway last weekend. The win virtually guarantees Brad a spot in the Chase, so both of the Penske drivers are in. Getting a win this early in the season takes a lot of pressure off of those teams, and they can concentrate on getting even better before the start of the Chase.

STP 500

The series heads back east this week for the running of the STP 500 at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit at .526-miles. It is also relatively flat with only twelve degrees of banking in the corners. You really need to qualify well here so you get a good pit stall. Plus, you need to have a really good handling car so that you don’t get lapped early in the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won eight races at Martinsville and has finished in the top five in eighteen of his twenty-six starts there. He is my pick to win his second race of the season and he is a must to have on your team this weekend. He has also finished in the top five in four of his last five races at this track.

Jeff Gordon: Not to be outdone by Jimmie, Jeff also has eight wins at this track and he should be one of the drivers to give Jimmie a run for his money this week. Jeff has finished in the top three in three of his last four starts here and he has twenty-eight top five finishes in his forty-four career starts at this track.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has four wins at this track and has finished in the top five in half of his eighteen starts here. Denny has been running well lately and should have another good run once again this weekend. I think handling is worth more than power at this track and so far this season, the Toyota’s seem to be a little bit behind the Chevrolet’s in that department. Like I said, that shouldn’t make that much of a difference here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale won the race at Martinsville last fall and has seven top ten finishes in his last nine starts here. This team has been good all season and he should have confidence coming back here after that win last season. It is too bad that most of the drivers that run well at this track are all in the same group in the Yahoo league.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has yet to win a race at this track, but he has finished in the top ten in his last five starts at Martinsville. Clint needs a good finish to give himself and his team some confidence as the season progresses. Clint has finished in the top ten here in twelve of his eighteen career starts which is very good for anyone on this track.

Tony Stewart: This could be the track that Tony breaks out of his funk at. Tony finished fourth here last fall and has finished in the top ten in more than half of his starts here. With the way Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch have looked this season, Tony should have the equipment to get the job done here.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has run well all year once again and is getting closer to winning a race all the time. He has one win at Martinsville and finished third here last fall. This is the type of track that he likes to run at and this weekend should be no different. I won’t be surprised when he comes away with a win sometime this season.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has finished in the top ten here in half of his ten career starts. With momentum on their side this team could reel off some consecutive wins. However, he has only led laps in two of his ten races here and his best finish so far is fourth. I think there are better choices to pick for your team this week.

Kevin Harvick: With eight straight top two finishes it’s hard to pick against Kevin any week. He has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in twelve of his twenty-seven starts at this track. Once again there are better tracks to use Kevin at even with the streak he is on right now. I will save him for some other time.

Joey Logano: Joey finished in the top five in both of the Martinsville races last year and he also led a bunch of laps in both of those races. This team needs to figure out how to finish a race because they seem to start out fast every week and then fade away towards the end of the race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Clint Bowyer
  • Tony Stewart
  • Greg Biffle
  • AJ Allmendinger

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Brett Moffitt

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Ryan Newman

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 AUTO CLUB, AUTO CLUB 400

For your sake, I hope that Kevin Harvick found his way onto your fantasy lineups last week. After watching the #4 team dominate the 312 lap effort in Phoenix, NASCAR moves to the third track in the west coast swing. Although there are many drivers with favorable track data, Auto Club is a challenging track to choose as there are not too many standout drivers.

For those of you who have already dropped in the standings, there is an opportunity to gain points with riskier picks. Some of us have seen a positive start to the season and can settle on safer picks. My advice to you is to continue to front-load your lineup with the top drivers and fill your bottom two spots with budget picks.

The driver with the best numbers in California, Kyle Busch, is out indefinitely with a broken leg. As a result, I am going to lean towards drivers who have long-term success at the track. Kyle Larson and Brian Vickers have a successful history at the track, but I am going to choose other options because both drivers have limited race data. Either driver can help a lineup near the bottom of the standings. Although not my suggestion, there is value for several drivers in the $15.00 to $19.75 range, and five average drivers may prove to be an effective strategy.

The active driver with the best lap-to-lap performance at the track over the last five years is Jimmie Johnson. Johnson has ten top-5 finishes in the race in California. During the same time span, Johnson has spent 93% of his laps in the top-15 and has an average running position of 5.8. As a west coast driver, I like his chances in a track close to home. Since he has seen early success in 2015, the #48 team has a high probability for success this week.

My choice for the second roster spot is one of the safest drivers to pick in the series. For some reason, it seems to me that Matt Kenseth is consistently running in 8th place at all times this season. His numbers reflect this at Auto Club, where he has an average finish position of 8.8 since 2005. In the same time span, Kenseth has the third-most laps led. He has also seen recent success as evidenced by a 12.2 average finish position over his last five races in California. He has earned 12 top-10 finishes in his last 16 races. If you are at the top of your league in points, Kenseth is a dependable roster option.

As we continue the theme of safe drivers, Kevin Harvick has been on fire since late last year. While this race is not one of his best, his numbers are favorable enough to justify his roster spot. With only 10 laps led and a 12th place average finish, Harvick has finished near the top. Also, he has eight top-10 finishes in 16 races. Based on his string of 1st and 2nd place finishes, Harvick has to be considered as a lock in your lineup as long as he stays hot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much wiggle room for the last two roster spots. Cole Whitt finished in 18th place last year. While, I am not anticipating a repeat finish, there is enough potential reward for his bargain price. For the same reason, the 5th roster spot will go to Michael Annett. Annett finished in 19th place last year. Like Whitt, the sample size is small, but worth the risk at a low dollar value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide this number by the salary cap number in Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows which drivers should provide value for your salary cap budget each week. Carl Edwards has decent numbers at Auto Club, and we will use his numbers at the track to illustrate the formula.

CARL EDWARDS AT AUTO CLUB

  • Average finish position last five Auto Club races: 11.8 equals 32.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish position last five Auto Club races: Plus 4.8 equals 4.8 points per race
  • Total laps led last five Auto Club races: 0 laps equals 0 points per race
  • Fast laps led last five Auto Club races: 11 laps equals 1.1 points per race
  • Total points per race: 38.1 points
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $22.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 38.1/ 22 = 1.73

The points per race for each driver this week is listed below. Suggested drivers are highlighted in bold. Good luck in the fifth week of the Fantasy NASCAR season.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.10
  • Kyle Larson 2.00
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.39
  • Matt Kenseth 1.30
  • Kasey Kahne 1.15
  • Jamie McMurray 0.86
  • Denny Hamlin 0.65
  • Joey Logano 0.61
  • Brad Keselowski 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 2.00
  • Paul Menard 1.81
  • Ryan Newman 1.75
  • Carl Edwards 1.73
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.85
  • Brian Vickers 2.61
  • Austin Dillon 2.37
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.21
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.18
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.32
  • Aric Almirola 0.69

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 3.00
  • Casey Mears 1.99
  • David Gilliland 1.93
  • David Ragan 1.71
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.43
  • Trevor Bayne 0.97

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Alex Bowman 5.33
  • Cole Whitt 4.80
  • Michael Annett 3.74
  • Brett Moffitt 3.50*
  • Mike Bliss 2.29*
  • Landon Cassill 2.18
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.71*
  • Josh Wise 1.52*
  • JJ Yeley 1.49
  • Brian Scott 1.42
  • JJ Yeley 1.35*
  • Reed Sorenson (-0.88)*
  • Brandan Gaughan (-0.95)
  • Mike Wallace (-2.08)*

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Auto Club Speedway, Auto Club 400

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick, this year’s first repeat winner, on dominating the CampingWorld.com 500 at Phoenix this past weekend. There really wasn’t anyone who could compete with Kevin and he won his fourth straight race at this track and fifth in his last six attempts.

AUTO CLUB 400

The series stays out west this week as they head to the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA. This will be the first time this season that the series visits a two-mile low-banked, D-shaped oval superspeedway. Once again I think we will have a driver win his second race of the season and guarantee himself a spot in the Chase field.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won five races at this track and he is my pick to win once again this weekend. Jimmie has finished in the top five here in twelve of the twenty races he has started and those are very impressive stats. Another impressive stat that Jimmie has at this track is that he has finished every lap of every race he has run here also.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has three wins at this track also and I think he is looking forward to this weekend. Matt is still trying to win his first points race in over a year so he doesn’t have to worry about making the Chase on points instead of by winning a race during the season. This could be the week he breaks the streak and goes back to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has a streak of his own going right now. He has finished first or second in his last six points race starts. I think that streak will come to an end this weekend. Kevin has won one race at this track, but he is mostly average here. He would love to win this race in his home state, but that won’t happen this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl has one win at this track, but I think this team is still learning to work together. I’m guessing about the middle of the season you will see this team run better and more consistently. Don’t use up all of his starts early in the season in the Yahoo league. Wait until later and you will score more points.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey also has won a race at this track and this team looks better at this point of the season than they did last year. I don’t think it will be long before you see them in victory lane. Kasey should do well in qualifying as well as the race this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three times at this track, but hasn’t won since the 2004 season here. I still see him running well this weekend and leading some laps during the race. I think the Hendrick cars will once again have the most power and speed among all of the teams on the circuit and that will propel them to the front of the field.

Kurt Busch: Kurt ran his first race of the season last week at Phoenix and came away with a great finish. This weekend shouldn’t be any different. Kurt has one win here during his career and has finished in the top ten in six of his last eight starts here. He should be able to work his way into the top thirty in points and if he wins a race he will make the Chase.

Clint Bowyer: Clint always runs well at the flatter tracks. After struggling early in the race last weekend at Phoenix. The team made some adjustments late in the race and Clint came to life a little bit. I think they learned a lot during that race and will be able to apply some of what they learned this week. I look for him to come away with a top ten finish this weekend.

Tony Stewart: Tony hasn’t run well yet this year, but they did have a good car last weekend. If Tony doesn’t get caught up in a crash at Phoenix I think he comes away with a top ten finish. This week he should be able to have a decent car right off the trailer and I see him leading laps and finishing in the top ten.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has yet to win a race at this track, but he has finished in the top five in two of his last three starts here. This team has been strong all year and this weekend should be no different. I think they will be fast just like all of the Hendrick cars and they will have a shot at going to victory lane.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kurt Busch
  • Tony Stewart
  • Clint Bowyer

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  5. Kurt Busch

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 PHOENIX, CAMPING WORLD 500

kevin harvick victory lane phoenix 2014

The first three weeks of the NASCAR season have been devastating to some fantasy rosters. The unpredictable nature of racing will make us tear our hair out, but is the beauty of playing fantasy NASCAR racing. For those of you with Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards on your roster last week, the race at Phoenix offers an opportunity to gain back some of your points. Phoenix has some drivers who stand out statistically. My advice to you is to front-load your roster and fill the final spots with budget drivers.

There is an obvious choice who should make his way onto your fantasy NASCAR rosters. Over the past five races at Phoenix, Kevin Harvick has an average finish position of 3.4. With 573 laps led in the same time span, Harvick has more than double the second-best driver in this statistical category. Since 2005, Harvick has spent 78% of his laps in the top-15 and has eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Phoenix races. The combination of early success in 2015 with the track data makes the #4 team a must-own this week.

Although he has stayed quiet so far by his standards, Brad Keselowski is a great candidate for your roster this week. His 5.6 average finish position over the past five Phoenix races is second to Kevin Harvick. His lap-to-lap performance is also second to the #4 team over the same time span. With only five top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at the track, Keselowski does not have long-term track success, but I think he is due for a top-5 finish.

Originally, I had Jimmie Johnson as the third member on my roster. His challenges at Las Vegas scared me enough to switch to his teammate. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been competitive each week this season and has an eighth place average over the last five Phoenix races. His nine top-10 finishes in twenty races is not overly impressive, but he has displayed consistency at the track. I expect Dale Earnhardt Jr. to remain competitive this week, and is worth a roster spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final roster spots. The #18 car is historically one of the best cars in the series. Because of this, one of the budget drivers for your lineup should be David Ragan. While he only has a 31st place average, even average numbers should provide value for your lineup. The final pick performs better than his average at Phoenix. JJ Yeley has an average finish position of 29th place and should provide great value for your lineup. If he comes close to the 3.41 points per fantasy dollar, you will be glad to use him this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top five drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our points per dollar formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five races at a given track. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that can be used to predict how many points to expect from each driver. Since I chickened out of putting Jimmie Johnson in my lineup this week, I will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT PHOENIX

  • Average finish position last five years: 16.4 equals 27.6 fantasy points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative seven equals -7 fantasy points per race
  • Laps Led: Two laps equals 0.2 fantasy points per race
  • Fast Laps: 103 laps equals 10.3 fantasy points per race
  • Average number of points per race last five years: 31.1
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 31.1 / 27.25 equals 1.14 points per dollar

Below you will see the Points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommendations are highlighted in bold. Good luck in your lineups in Phoenix.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 4.78
  • Brad Keselowski 2.26
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.06
  • Joey Logano 1.56
  • Jeff Gordon 1.54
  • Denny Hamlin 1.44
  • Matt Kenseth 1.36
  • Jamie McMurray 1.19
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.14
  • Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.84
  • Greg Biffle 1.86
  • Kasey Kahne 1.76
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Tony Stewart 1.47
  • Paul Menard 1.03
  • Clint Bowyer 0.65
  • Brian Vickers 0.63

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.84
  • Aric Almirola 1.37
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.62
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.48
  • Austin Dillon 0.37

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.67
  • Casey Mears 2.00
  • David Gilliland 1.65
  • Danica Patrick 1.60
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Regan Smith 0.55

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 3.27
  • Michael Annett 2.47
  • Landon Cassill 2.12
  • Reed Sorenson 1.78
  • Justin Allgaier 1.05
  • Alex Bowman 0.93
  • Cole Whitt 0.55
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Jeb Burton * 1.24
  • Brett Moffitt* 3.86
  • Brendan Gaughan * 2.86

* No Phoenix statistics available. This number represents the points per dollar for all 2015 races.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Phoenix International Raceway, CampingWorld.com 500

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick on winning the race in Las Vegas this past weekend. We now have three different winners in three races this year. Kevin dominated the race and there wasn’t anyone who had anything for him at the end. Martin Truex Jr. continued his strong season with a second place finish, while Ryan Newman rounded out the top three. This week the series stays out west and I think we will see our first repeat winner of the season.

CAMPINGWORLD.COM 500

The series stays west as they head to Phoenix International Raceway for the running of the CampingWorld.com 500.
Phoenix is a one-mile, low-banked D-shaped tri-oval race track located in Avondale, Arizona. This is the only non-road course track that measures their race mileage in kilometers. That means the race is not 500-miles or 500 laps, It is actually 312-miles long.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is my pick to win back-to-back races this week. He has won four of the last five races here. That makes four out of seven since the track was reconfigures in 2011 and he also finished second in one of those other races. It is hard to bet against a guy with stats like that.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has finished in the top ten in his last four races here including a second place finish in this race last season. The way this team is running so far, Dale might be able to move up one more spot and win his first race of the year and qualify for the Chase. No matter what he does this weekend, we will see him win races soon.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t had the best start to his season, but this week that can all change. Brad has finished in the top six in five of his last six starts at this track. He has also led laps in five of those races and sat on the front row in both of last year’s races. This is the week this team might see their luck change to the better.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has been fast all year and now he just needs the luck to swing around for him. Jeff has four top ten finishes in his last six starts here and finished second in the fall race last season. In his final full-time season, Jeff would like nothing better than to get an early win and ensure himself a shot at a final championship before he retires.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won four races here, finished in the top five fourteen times, and the top ten eighteen times. That has all been accomplished in only twenty-three races. He already has one win this year, so he is in the Chase. He is a must for your fantasy team this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny always run well at the shorter, flatter tracks and Phoenix is no exception. He has finished in the top five here in four of his last six starts and this team looks better at this point of the season than he did last year. He has the equipment to get the job done and I think he will be a contender this week.

Carl Edwards: Carl has two career wins at Phoenix and has had good cars every week this year. He might be pressing a little too hard with his new team and he just needs to relax and race his race. Once this team really gets used to working together they will start to win races. A short track might the thing to get this team on the right track.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has been very good so far this year and it shouldn’t surprise anyone after what he did last season. He has always run well at Phoenix and has one win and four poles to prove it. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him win the race this weekend if he can put himself in the top five with 50-laps to go.

Joey Logano: Joey has three straight top ten finish here and has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run here. This team already has a win this year and can so a little experimenting on tracks that are going to have races during the Chase and Phoenix is one of them. They will take everything they learn this weekend and apply to their strategy and car come this November.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is still looking to break his winless streak, but he hasn’t won here since 2002. He is capable of winning this race, but I would hold off on using him this week. He runs better on the more banked tracks and the longer tracks on the circuit and there will be plenty of time to use him later this season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Clint Bowyer
  • AJ Allmendinger

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Regan Smith

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Greg Biffle

Stay Away From: Brian Vickers