Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DAYTONA, DAYTONA 500

NASCAR Daytona car lineup

We are a few days away from the beginning of another NASCAR season!

Compete against us on the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet league! Details at end of article.

The Daytona 500 is one of the most anticipated races of the NASCAR schedule. For Fantasy Racing purposes, the restrictor plates and the changes in the car setup requirements will make week one very challenging. This article will indicate which drivers have a successful history at Daytona.

My suggestion is to find the drivers who qualify at the back of the field. Start-to-finish differential will be the key to success because we rarely see a dominant car leading a significant amount of laps during restrictor plate races. You can already take Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson out of your lineups.

The driver with the best average finish position over the last five races will find his way onto many fantasy lineups this weekend. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish position of 8th place during his last five Daytona races and has logged the most Fantasy Live points during the same time span. Since 2005, Junior has seven top-5 finishes and 15 top-20 finishes in his last 20 races. Junior is the best driver to choose this weekend unless he qualifies near the front of the field.

Matt Kenseth is a driver with great lap-to-lap performance data at Daytona who has finished in the middle of the pack in recent years. He has led the most laps over the last five races and ties Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the best lap-to-lap data. His fantasy points per race are low due to a negative start-to-finish differential. Kenseth has the second-best lap-to-lap performance since 2005 (behind Kyle Busch). His 14 top-20 finishes since 2005 is second only to Dale Earnhardt Jr. If Kenseth qualifies near the back of the pack, he should be considered in your lineup.

A driver who has quietly experienced recent success at the Florida track is my first bargain suggestion. Casey Mears has an average finish position of 14th over the past five races. At a $12 value, having the driver with the fourth-best average finish position is worth a shot. Since 2005, Mears has an average finish position of 21.3 and nine top-20 finishes in 17 races. In a race where many of the lower drivers are valuable, Mears stands out as one of the top bargain options.

At a $13 cap value, I anticipate Danica Patrick will find her way onto many fantasy lineups this weekend. Over her past five races at Daytona, Patrick has an average finish position of 17.5. Patrick also has two top-10 finishes in her last five Daytona races. While her numbers are not impressive enough to burn an allocation in a Yahoo league, she is an excellent selection in a salary cap league this week.

The original fifth choice on my team was Ricky Stenhouse Jr. before I realized I had enough cap room for Austin Dillon. Dillon, with a 15th place average finish position, has the fifth-best average finish position in the series over the last five races. Dillon has two top-10 finishes in three Daytona races. For all drivers, keep an eye on the qualifying order along with the value numbers below for the best chance of success.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines finish position, start-to-finish differential, fast laps, and laps led. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers ever week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap structure. Our formula uses the date form the last five Daytona races. For each driver, we calculate the average number of points earned. Then, we divide that number of points by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each driver.

Greg Biffle has seen recent success at Daytona, but missed the cut for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Daytona numbers to illustrate the formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT DAYTONA

  • Average finish position last five Daytona races: 10.8 equals 33 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative six equals -6 points per race
  • Laps led: 52 laps = 5.2 points per race
  • Fast laps: 14 = 1.4 points per race
  • Total points per race last five Daytona races: 33.6
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.00
  • Points per race: 33.6 / 23 equals 1.46 points per fantasy dollar

See this week’s fantasy live points per dollar numbers below with my picks highlighted in bold. Good luck with your picks for Daytona.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.89
  • Brad Keselowski 1.77
  • Denny Hamlin 1.74
  • Jimmy Johnson 1.40
  • Jamie McMurray 1.38
  • Joey Logano 1.23
  • Matt Kenseth 1.09
  • Kyle Busch 1.01
  • Jeff Gordon 0.70
  • Kevin Harvick 0.57
  • Kasey Kahne (-0.04)
  • Kyle Larson (-0.17)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 1.59
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.46
  • Aric Almirola 1.16
  • Tony Stewart 0.98
  • Clint Bowyer 0.88
  • Carl Edwards 0.77
  • Paul Menard 0.56

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.33
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.01
  • Ryan Blaney 0.47
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.11
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.34)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Bobby Labonte 4.27
  • Michael Waltrip 3.46
  • Casey Mears 3.05
  • Justin Allgaier 2.85
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.54
  • Danica Patrick 2.50
  • Trevor Bayne 0.75

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 8.22
  • Alex Bowman 4.88
  • Michael McDowell 4.27
  • Reed Sorenson 3.00
  • Michael Annett 3.00
  • Landon Cassill 2.97
  • Ty Dillon 2.50
  • David Ragan 2.17
  • Josh Wish 1.91
  • Brian Scott 0.87
  • David Gilliland 0.53

JOIN OUR FANTASY NASCAR LIVE LEAGUE

Play along with me and others on the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet NASCAR Fantasy Live League! Once you are logged in to the game at nascar.com click the ‘Join A League’ link and search for us.

Here are the details:

  • LEAGUE NAME: Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
  • LEAGUE PASSWORD: nascar
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 NASCAR Preview

Here we go.

The 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup series is almost here. Saturday we start out the year with the Sprint Unlimited. I think this race is for those who can’t wait until some real important racing gets underway. That for me will be this coming Thursday when the Budweiser Duels are run. This is when I get really interested in the season. I know that there is qualifying on Sunday for the Daytona 500, but that only sets the top two positions and we all know that it doesn’t really matter where you start at Daytona, it’s whether or not you can avoid the big wreck and put yourself in position to win the Great American Race.

JOIN OUR YAHOO FANTASY RACING LEAGUE

Once again I am running a Yahoo Fantasy Racing League. The league is almost full so if you want in get signed up as soon as you can. The Group ID is 4143 and the password is harvick.

Last year was the first year of the new championship format and it was more exciting than I thought it was going to be. I just wish they wouldn’t have one race decide the eventual champion. I do believe that Kevin Harvick deserved to win the championship and he was the best driver on the track week in and week out last year. I just think that a blown tire, accident, or blown engine will knock out a deserving driver in the not so distant future with this system and it is hard to fathom a driver running so well all year and not winning a championship because of one race in 36.

JOIN ME HERE EACH RACE WEEK

Come back next Friday night to see my picks for the Daytona 500 and let’s get this season started!

Good luck to all of you fantasy race team owners and remember, I am here to give you the best advice I can. It might not be right all of the time, but I do base my opinions on more than just intuition. I do the research and will not just give you an answer to your question, but I will also give you my reasoning behind my answer. So, don’t be afraid to ask questions. I try to answer every question within 24 hours of it being asked.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

HOW TO PLAY NASCAR FANTASY LIVE TO WIN

fantasy nascar live strategy

Welcome to the 2015 NASCAR season!

As Fantasy NASCAR players, we begin another year of deciding which drivers will carry us to victory. This season, we will have a weekly article posted on Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet committed specifically to finding the best bargain drivers on Fantasy Live. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of how to play Fantasy Live and some basic strategies that are used in this format.

Compete against us on the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet league! Details at end of article.

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE SCORING METHOD

The scoring system on NASCAR Fantasy Live combines 1) Finish Position, 2) Start-to-finish differential, 3) Laps led, 4) Fast laps.

The benefit to this format is that the statistics reward drivers based on how they drive throughout the race. I love the Yahoo Fantasy Racing format, but get frustrated when I pick a team that dominates the race only to blow a tire in the last ten laps and ruin my week. In Fantasy Live, you will at least be rewarded for Fast Laps and Laps Led for the race.

Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to prevent you from simply starting the best drivers every week. You have to choose five drivers ever week and are limited a $100 salary cap.

The top drivers in the series typically carry a salary cap figure of $28. Every week, you also need to select a pit crew and manufacturer for additional bonus points. Last season, Chevrolet won the most consistent manufacturer. Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth were two of the more consistent pit crews last season. My suggestion would be to pick one of these crews for the first few weeks until we find out which pit crews are having success in 2015.

There are a few different strategies that you can use when selecting a roster for Fantasy Live. Every strategy has strengths and weaknesses.

MY TOP-4 STRATEGY TIPS FOR NASCAR FANTASY LIVE

#1 : FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP

This is my suggested strategy for most weeks.

Because Fantasy Live rewards drivers for Laps Led and Fast Laps, your team can win your league if you can pick a dominant car. This strategy is especially recommended on short tracks like Dover and Martinsville. With 500 laps at these tracks, dominant cars have the opportunity to rack up several hundred points. If you pick the top-3 drivers at a track, you usually have about $20 remaining for the other two drivers in your lineup.

I do not recommend this strategy for Daytona and Talladega because there is rarely a dominant team due to the nature of the restrictor plate tracks.

#2 : CHOOSE THE POOR QUALIFIERS

Another common strategy is to start drivers who qualify near the back of the field. This way you can gain points as your driver charges through the field.

Usually, I do not solely lean on this strategy. However, if I see a driver I ranked near the top qualify at the back of the field, I may consider switching my driver. The drawback to this strategy is that drivers often qualify at the back of the field for a reason. Sometimes, they stay at the back of the field all race and provide no value to your team.

This strategy is recommended at Daytona and Talladega.

#3 : STICK WITH A BARGAIN DRIVER

Sometimes, a driver is undervalued at the beginning of the season (see Kyle Larson 2014). If you can lock up a driver early in the year and keep him on your roster, you can have more overall value than the other players in your league as the season progresses.

Driver values change throughout the year based on their performance. Drivers to keep an eye on early in the season include Sam Hornish Jr. and Trevor Bayne. Generally, I avoid this strategy because I prefer to choose drivers on a race-to-race basis. If you are a casual player and do not obsess over your roster on a week-to-week basis, sticking with a bargain driver may be the best option for your team.

#4 : MY WEEKLY NASCAR FANTASY LIVE ARTICLE

Watch for my weekly NASCAR Fantasy Live article posted on our website that is specific to the Fantasy Live scoring format.

In the article, we look at the average points earned by each driver over the last five races at a particular track. Then, we divide the point value by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. The final number can show where to find value for your roster.

The Accupredict Method, Fantasy Statistics Wizard, and weekly articles on this site are a valuable resource to help with your lineup decisions. We look forward to seeing you throughout the season, and good luck with your 2015 Fantasy Racing season!

JOIN OUR FANTASY NASCAR LIVE LEAGUE

Play along with me and others on the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet NASCAR Fantasy Live League! Once you are logged in to the game at nascar.com click the ‘Join A League’ link and search for us.

Here are the details:

  • LEAGUE NAME: Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet
  • LEAGUE PASSWORD: nascar
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

36 Races – One Driver Per Race – Fantasy NASCAR

One Fantasy NASCAR Driver Per Race

Around this time every NASCAR pre-season I’ll have a subscriber or two contact me about helping them out with their fantasy NASCAR game. The most difficult and urgent request is always the fantasy NASCAR game where you have to select one driver for each of the 36 races on the NASCAR schedule. In addition, you can only use a driver one time. Oh, and you have to make your complete season selections prior to the Daytona 500!

Unfortunately, none of the NASCAR statistical tools on the site make that challenge very easy. Actually, I still haven’t scripted or figured out a database query that makes the task easy either. It’s a labor intensive project that is an excruciating 90-minutes of 1) database query 2) copy/paste 3) rearrange drivers 4) do it again. But, like most research projects that suck while you’re doing it, in the end you’re pretty happy with the data you’ve compiled.

Since I put the effort in to this project and I think that 100 people could interpret and select a different combination of driver-to-race pairings I’m putting the spreadsheet here for anyone to download.

Click to download the spreadsheet.

NASCAR STATISTICS EXAMINED

Last season I created this spreadsheet using the averaged NASCAR Loop Data Driver Rating over the previous three seasons. This year I went with each drivers average finish position.

The top row of the spreadsheet follows the actual race schedule order of the 2015 NASCAR season. Going on the theory that certain drivers do better (or worse) as the season progresses I compiled the average finishes to be race specific. So, the column labeled Daytona 1 uses just the historical data from the first Daytona races during 2012, 2013 and 2014 (aka the Daytona 500). When you move along the top and get to Daytona 2 those values use the average finishes for the Daytona summer race (aka Coke Zero 400). This applies to all two race date tracks on the schedule.

I’ve included 54 NASCAR drivers in the list. This is basically the drivers the website considers as ‘active’ in 2015…meaning we should see them at some time this year attempting to make a race. The number along each driver row is their 3-year average finish (as noted above to be race specific).

Be aware that some of the lower-tier drivers on the list may not have three races of history for a race. For example, Kyle Larson has an average finish of 8th at Atlanta. In reality, he has only raced one race there so that is not really an average but his only finish.

Enjoy!

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Homestead-Miami, EcoBoost 400

2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship Four

This week’s championship race at Homestead will have a difficult time matching the excitement generated by the Phoenix race. When the dust settled in Arizona, we are left with four drivers who could win the title this week.

While he has been out of my Fantasy Live lineup most of the season, Carl Edwards has a track history that makes him a front-runner this week. Edwards has 5 Top Five finishes in his last 9 Homestead races. His lap-to-lap performance is the best in the series as evidenced by 86% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 7.9 since 2005. He is also on top of the series in laps led and fast laps. Over his last five Homestead races, Edwards has the best average finish position in the series and will be a contributor in my lineup.

The second choice for my lineup is one of the four drivers vying for a championship. Kevin Harvick has 4 Top Five finishes in his last 9 Homestead races. With 75% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 10.9 since 2005, Harvick is the fourth-best driver in lap-to-lap performance. Considering his dominant effort at Phoenix, Harvick is a great choice for your roster this week.

I had a difficult time deciding between Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin for the third roster spot. While Kenseth has better numbers at the track, Hamlin will be my pick due to his chance to win the season title. Picking contenders will make the race more exciting to watch from a fantasy perspective. Hamlin has a ninth place average finish position over the last five races and the fourth-most laps led. With 4 Top Five finishes in his last 9 races, Hamlin could easily find a way to win the championship. Cases can also be made to start Martin Truex Jr. if you need to gain points on the leaders. He has excellent track data.

For Fantasy Racing, your strategy should reflect your position in the standings. Leaders should take a conservative approach and start the drivers with the highest probability for success. Those of us behind in the standings should take risks with drivers in order to gain points on the other players. Your level of risk should coincide with how many points you are behind the leaders. Whatever your strategy, we will have champions this time next week in NASCAR and in our fantasy leagues. Good luck as you try to capture your league title.

There was not a ton of salary cap room available after selecting the top three drivers. Hamlin and Edwards have a salary cap figure that is a little lower than some of the top drivers I have been recommending. As a result of the extra space, I had enough cap room to afford Justin Allgaier this week. While Allgaier does not have any track data, he has a 26th place average finish position in 2014. He was a slightly better option than some of the other budget options. With the remaining salary cap, the fifth selection will be Brian Scott. While Scott only has a 33rd place average in 2014 races, he should provide decent value at a $7.25 salary cap figure.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start to finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points accumulated by each driver over the last five Homestead races and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that indicates how many points to expect from each salary cap figure. Matt Kenseth has some of the best track data at Homestead and is one of the best drivers in the series in 2014, but he missed the cut for my lineup. As a consolation prize, we will use his Homestead data to illustrate the formula.

MATT KENSETH AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI

  • Average finish position last five Homestead races: 9th place equals 35 points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 equals 4 points
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Laps Led: 162 laps equals 16.2 points
  • Average Fantasy Live points per race: 55.20
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy Points per dollar: 55.20 divided by 27.75 equals 1.99

Since this is the first race at Homestead this season, several rookies have not raced at the track. For these rookies, we will use their 2014 data to give you an idea how many points to expect from them. See the Fantasy Live points per dollar figures below with this week’s suggestions in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.82
  • Kevin Harvick 1.99
  • Matt Kenseth 1.99
  • Clint Bowyer 1.75
  • Ryan Newman 1.37
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.36
  • Jeff Gordon 1.33
  • Brad Keselowski 0.97
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.88
  • Joey Logano 0.73

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.44
  • Tony Stewart 2.36
  • Aric Almirola 2.05
  • Brian Vickers 1.66
  • Kyle Larson 1.48
  • Austin Dillon 1.41
  • Kasey Kahne 1.33
  • Greg Biffle 1.04
  • Paul Menard 0.94
  • Jamie McMurray 0.84
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.69
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.10

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.78
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.53
  • Justin Allgaier 1.20
  • Casey Mears 1.12

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 1.42
  • David Ragan 0.89
  • Trevor Bayne 0.43
  • Cole Whitt (-0.09)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorensen 2.18
  • Michael Annett 2.10
  • Alex Bowman 1.33
  • Michael McDowell 1.33
  • Brett Moffitt 1.17
  • Landon Cassill 1.09
  • JJ Yeley 0.18
  • Blake Koch 0.00
  • Josh Wise (-0.15)
  • Brian Scott (-0.41)