Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Kansas Speedway, SpongeBob SquarePants 400

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr. who picked up his first win of the season at Talladega on Sunday afternoon and qualified his team for the Chase. Half of the Chase spots are now filled with sixteen more races left before it starts. Now we just have to wait and see who will fill those other eight spots. Let’s see what happens in this Saturday night race.

SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400

This week the series heads to Kansas Speedway for the running of the SpongeBob SquarePants 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half intermediate tracks on the circuit. This will be the last race before the series takes a week off for the All-Star race weekend in Charlotte. This will be a welcome break for most of the teams. Most of them will be able to take some time with their families as many of the teams are located in the Charlotte area.

Jimmie Johnson: I have to pick Jimmie to win this week’s intermediate track race once again. Jimmie has two career wins at Kansas, has finished in the top ten in fourteen of his seventeen starts there, and he has won two of the three races run at similar tracks this season. Those are the reasons I believe this team will garner their third win of the season on Saturday night.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has sat on the pole for the last three Kansas races in which he won one of those races and finished second in another. He is also the driver that won the mile and a half race at Las Vegas, which is the race Jimmie didn’t win. I look for Kevin to qualify well here once again and be in contention for the win at the end of the night.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won this race last season and leads all drivers with three career wins at Kansas. This team is still looking for their first win of the season and wants to get qualified for the Chase as soon as possible. He has finished in the top five in ten of his eighteen starts here and that is an impressive stat for any driver. Look for him to be in contention at the end of this race.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has two career wins at Kansas and he can relax and just try to win races now that he is qualified for the Chase. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his eighteen starts at this track. The Joe Gibbs teams seem to be getting a little faster every week, thus closing the gap with the Hendrick and Penske teams. I like Matt during night races, as he seems to run even better than normal during these races.

Carl Edwards: Carl is looking for his first win of the season and his first win at Kansas. Even though he doesn’t have a win, he has finished in the top ten in eleven of his fifteen starts here. This team just keeps getting better every week and they will break into the win column very soon and qualify for the Chase.

Joey Logano: Joey won the race here last fall during the Chase and has finished in the top four in his last three starts here. This team will be happy to get back to an intermediate track after being involved in some wrecks the past couple of races. They have been very disappointed in those races as they felt they has a chance to win those races. Now they should be back to contending.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Now that Dale has a win this season and is qualified for the Chase he can relax a little bit. Not that drivers who are qualified for the Chase really relax, but they don’t have the pressure of trying to win races to make the Chase. Dale will be looking for his first win at this track and with momentum on his side he just might get that win.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey is another driver without a win this season or at Kansas. Although he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen starts here. This team is also going to be glad to get back to an intermediate track after being involved in on track incidents the past few races. With the equipment they have, I think they will win at least one race before the start of the Chase.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won two races at Kansas and this team has looked better and better every week. They seem to be faster and just need to make the correct adjustment as the track changes and a night race might make that a little easier for them. I think Tony is going to keep improving as the season progresses and it won’t surprise me to see him in victory lane before the Chase starts.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won a race at Kansas in his career and he should have a fast car once again this weekend. I think this team has been very disappointed in their performance the past couple of races and are looking to get back to where they are contending in races. Look for Brad’s car to get faster as the race progresses and be in contention for the win at the end.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Tony Stewart
  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Eric Jones
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TALLADEGA, GEICO 500

Kurt Busch ended up being the driver we all wanted in our lineups at Richmond and has now punched his ticket into the Chase. We now proceed to the unpredictability of restrictor plate racing this week at Talladega Superspeedway. Typically, there is not a dominating car at the Alabama track so you do not have to aggressively chase laps led and fast laps. I will include drivers in this article who have seen success at Talladega for my early week roster recommendations.

The best strategy is to pick a lineup that qualifies near the back of the field and gain points from start-to-finish differential. The restrictor plates allow drivers to easily move from the front to the back of the field. If you are deep in the standings of the league, you may want to pick drivers who do not see many lineups and hope you get lucky. Set your lineup and hope that when the dust settles, you have four cars who can finish one of the most entertaining races to watch all season.

While Dale Earnhardt Jr. is known for his success in Talladega, the driver who has seen the most recent success is Matt Kenseth. Over the last five races at Talladega, Kenseth has led a series-best 209 laps. His 13.6 average finish position is the best of the top-end drivers. Since 2005, Matt Kenseth has spent 64% of his laps running in the top-15. His 13 top-20 finishes since 2005 is tied with Clint Bowyer for the most in the series. If Kenseth qualifies near the back of the field, he will be the first choice for my lineup.

Speaking of Clint Bowyer, watching his team in 2015 has generally been a painful experience. The restrictor plates are an equalizer for struggling teams and Bowyer has found consistent success at this week’s track. While he has not led too many laps here, Bowyer has an 11th place average at the track and a positive start-to-finish differential. His 13 top-20 finishes in 18 races shows that he usually avoids the big wreck. Bowyer will likely be a member of my roster this week.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a scary option for most weeks. With a +14 start-to-finish differential and an 11.4 average finish position in three races, Stenhouse has seen early success. He also has two top-10 finishes already and has stayed away from the carnage. In a race filled with quality budget options, Stenhouse has a high probability of success this week.

David Ragan will soon be switching from the #18 team to the #55 team. Whichever team he drives for, he should have a solid run in Talladega. Ragan’s value has increased since the beginning of the season and almost cannot be defined as a budget option unless you have stashed him on your roster. Ragan has averaged a 15th place finish over his last five Talladega races. Although he has only led nine laps during this time span, one of those laps propelled him to victory two years ago. Ragan has ten top-20 finishes in 16 Talladega races. He should be on your roster if he qualifies at the end of the field.

For once, I still have salary cap room available for the 5th roster spot. I am regretting leaving Kurt Busch off of my roster last week. He has not seen recent success at the track, as evidenced by his 25th place average finish position during the last five Talladega races. Long-term, he is tied for the best in the series with 64% of his laps inside the top-15 since 2005. With 12 top-20 finishes in 20 races, Kurt Busch can drive well here.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to manage the talent we choose every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Talladega races. Next, we divide the average number of points by the salary cap figure to help find potential value. By the end of this weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a good chance to find my roster. He is off right now, and we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT TALLADEGA

  • Average finish position last five Talladega races: 19.2 equals 24.8 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 1.2 equals negative 1.2 points per race
  • Laps led: 113 equals 11.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 14 equals 1.4 points per race
  • Total points per Talladega race: 62.67
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points per Dollar:62.67 divided by $27.25 equals 2.30 points per dollar

Below you will find the Points per Dollar for each driver. My picks are highlighted in bold. We will use 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Good luck and make sure to tweak your lineup after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.88
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.30
  • Kyle Larson 2.13
  • Kevin Harvick 1.69
  • Jamie McMurray 1.62
  • Denny Hamlin 1.23
  • Jeff Gordon 1.17
  • Kasey Kahne 1.06
  • Brad Keselowski 1.00
  • Joey Logano 0.90

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.81
  • Clint Bowyer 2.15
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
  • Paul Menard 1.29
  • Ryan Newman 1.28
  • Aric Almirola 1.05
  • Kurt Busch 0.89
  • Carl Edwards 0.71

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.30
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.69
  • Tony Stewart 0.24

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
  • David Gilliland 3.67
  • Bobby Labonte 3.56
  • David Ragan 3.49
  • Justin Allgaier 2.98
  • Michael Waltrip 2.73
  • Casey Mears 1.91
  • Danica Patrick 1.21
  • Ryan Blaney 0.30
  • Trevor Bayne 0.10

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 5.04
  • JJ Yeley 2.97
  • Josh Wise 2.80
  • Cole Whitt 2.55
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.50*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.45*
  • Michael McDowell 1.92
  • Jeb Burton 1.12*
  • Michael Annett 0.75
  • Alex Bowman (-0.14)
  • Brian Scott (-4.75)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Talladega Superspeedway, Geico 500

Congratulations to Kurt Busch who is the seventh driver to win a race this season after he went to victory lane at Richmond this past weekend. We are now over a third of the way to the start of the Chase and we have seven drivers who are virtually locked in. So, we have seventeen more races to find nine more drivers to complete the Chase field. If your favorite driver isn’t in yet, don’t worry, there is still plenty of time left to qualify and we have two more restrictor plate races and two road-course races in that stretch.

GEICO 500

This week is going to be one of those restrictor plate races as the teams head to Talladega Superspeedway for the running of the Geico 500. Talladega is the longest track on the circuit at 2.66-miles. This is also one of those races where any of the 43 drivers starting have a shot to win. These restrictor plate races are great for those teams that don’t have the same funding as the big boys.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale dominated this track for seven straight races from 2001-2004 when he won five of those races and finished second in the other two. He knows how to use the draft to his advantage and he had one of the fastest cars at Daytona earlier this year. I think Dale gets back to his winning ways at Talladega and grabs a spot in the Chase this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won six races at Talladega during his career and would love to get number seven this weekend and get himself qualified for the Chase in his last full-time season. He has also finished in the top five here in a third of the races he has run. That tells me he always has a car capable of making its way to the front of the field and all he needs to do is stay out of trouble early in the race.

Kurt Busch: Although Kurt has never won a race at Talladega, he has finished in the top ten in half of his twenty-eight starts. As well as he has been running this season, this might be the time that he breaks into the win column here. Momentum is on his side with the win last week and this team will arrive at Talladega with high expectations.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one win at Talladega and he has come looking for a win every week this year. I still think that Kevin is definitely the favorite to win his second championship because of how consistent he has been all year. If he can pick up a win at Talladega this weekend that will just be a bonus on his season.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has been getting better and better every week and has already won two races at Talladega in his career. He finished third in both races here last year and has also finished in the top ten in over half of the races he has run at this track. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he wins once again this weekend and qualifies himself for the Chase.

Brad Keselowski: Brad already has three wins in twelve starts at this track. I think he is going to have a car capable of winning this week’s race if they don’t have any mechanical problems that seem to be creeping up on them the last couple of races. 500-miles of racing at almost 200 mph could take a toll on engines, so they better hope they have all of their issues figured out.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won this race last season to qualify for the Chase. He also had one of the fastest cars at Daytona this year, so he should have a lot of confidence this weekend that he will have a car that is capable of winning this race. I think he will be in contention for the win late in the race this week.

Joey Logano: Joey won the Daytona 500 this year and that means that the car he won with is on display at Daytona U.S.A. I don’t think that will matter too much for Joey. I think he will have another fast car once again this weekend and his biggest concern should be mechanical problems much the same as his teammate, Brad Keselowski.

Michael Waltrip: Michael will be piloting the #55 Aaron’s Dream Machine once again this weekend. Michael is always good at restrictor plate tracks and he is subbing for Brian Vickers this week. That means he has a crew that has been practicing all season and a crew-chief that know what he is doing. Look for Michael to run at the back of the pack for a major portion of the race to try and stay out of trouble and then take a shot at winning because he isn’t racing for the points.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has won twice at Talladega and this team has been contenders in quite a few races this season. They would love to get a win and qualify themselves for the Chase and a shot at winning a championship. I think Jamie will do well once again this weekend and could very well win this race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Aric Almirola
  • Paul Menard
  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Casey Mears

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY

  1. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Michael Waltrip

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 RICHMOND, TOYOTA OWNERS 400

The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway was brutal last week and left many fantasy players licking their wounds.

With four DNFs in the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet Yahoo league, my total number of DNFs has grown to 13 for the season (41% of all selections). Needless to say, the element of luck has not been on my side yet this season. NASCAR stays in the east this week at Richmond International Raceway. Like Bristol, your goal is to select the drivers who will earn points in the laps led and fast laps categories. With more chances to earn points due to the number of laps in short tracks, we will once again see a significant difference between the winners and losers this week. My suggestion is to front load your lineup to get as many opportunities as possible to benefit from the laps led statistic.

Although he has not led a ton of laps at Richmond, Kevin Harvick has been running near the top all season. Given his lightning-hot start in 2015, he has to find your lineup on the tracks where he has seen success. Over the past five Richmond races, Harvick is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, he has spent 93% of his Richmond laps running in the top-15 since 2005. He also has earned 15 top-10 finishes during this time span. Harvick will eventually cool off, but he will stay in my lineup until he does.

For the second spot on my roster, I am choosing the driver with the most Fantasy Live points and laps led over the last five Richmond races. Brad Keselowski has led 639 laps and is significantly higher than the second-best driver (Clint Bowyer with 273). Keselowski also has the best lap-to-lap performance. Although the long-term numbers are not overly impressive, the #2 car is clearly a favorite this week after a disappointing Bristol outing.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon. I like Hamlin at Virginia tracks, but his 20.5 average finish over the last five Richmond races was enough to scare me away. His numbers looked eerily similar at Martinsville, and Denny won that race. Despite the similarities, Gordon is a safer option and has a high likelihood of success this week. He holds a 5th place average finish position over the last five Richmond races. Over the same period of time, Gordon has the third-most laps led and the second-most Fantasy Live points per race. Historically, Gordon has 12 top-10 finishes in his last twenty Richmond races. I am expecting Gordon to be near the top this week.

After choosing three of the highest salary drivers, there is little room remaining for the final two spots. Although he struggled in his Cup debut, Chase Elliot is a high-risk, high-reward option at $9.00. I am hoping he is over his jitters and does not bounce off cars like a pinball this week. Michael Annett has a 35th place average finish position at Richmond. For now, he is the top budget option available. My choice for the final position will be based on qualifying. I will likely pick a driver under $7.00 at the bottom of the qualifying field and hope he passes a few wrecked cars to provide value (see Matt DiBenedetto or Alex Kennedy most weeks).

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format.

Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Richmond races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary cap figure. The result is a number that reveals which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Since Denny Hamlin missed my lineup, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate this formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five Richmond races: 20.5 equals 23.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.5 equals (-7.5) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps Led: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast Laps: 77 equals 7.7 Fantasy Live Points
  • Average number of points per race last five Richmond races: 50.88
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.88 divided by $26.00 equals 1.96 points per dollar

Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver at Richmond. My picks are highlighted picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all tracks for any driver with no Richmond track history. I will comment on any suggestions after qualifying. I will also post my Yahoo lineup this week so you know who to avoid in your lineups. With 28 races still left in the season, there is plenty of time to catch up.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 4.03
  • Jeff Gordon 2.90
  • Matt Kenseth 2.12
  • Denny Hamlin 1.96
  • Kevin Harvick 1.85
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.81
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Joey Logano 1.31
  • Kyle Larson 0.89
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.77

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.53
  • Carl Edwards 2.35
  • Ryan Newman 2.23
  • Kurt Busch 2.10
  • Aric Almirola 1.73
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.67
  • Greg Biffle 1.58
  • Paul Menard 1.44
  • Kasey Kahne 1.40

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.29
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.27
  • Tony Stewart 1.97
  • Casey Mears 1.89
  • Austin Dillon 1.43
  • Danica Patrick 1.39

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.55
  • Justin Allgaier 2.49
  • Trevor Bayne 2.25 *
  • David Ragan 1.42
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.35

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Alex Kennedy 3.09 *
  • Brett Moffitt 2.86 *
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.50 *
  • Landon Cassill 2.24
  • JJ Yeley 1.89
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.83 *
  • Cole Whitt 1.18
  • Jeb Burton 1.08 *
  • Reed Sorenson 1.05
  • Josh Wise 0.80
  • Michael Annett 0.79
  • Alex Bowman 0.41
  • Chase Elliott(-0.33) *
  • Joey Gase n/a *

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Richmond International Raceway, Toyota Owners 400

Congratulations to Matt Kenseth, who broke a fifty-one race winless streak by winning the rain delayed Food City 500 in Support of Steve Byrnes on Sunday. I’m sure Matt is happy to qualify for the Chase early in the season this year and not have to worry about getting in on points. I also want to applaud NASCAR for completing the race in its entirety. they could very easily have called the race at the 500-lap mark when it started to rain once again, but they made sure they got to the checkered flag under green.

TOYOTA OWNERS 400

This week we go under the lights once again on a Saturday night in Richmond, VA. Richmond International Raceway is a three-quarter-mile D-shaped oval without a lot of banking in the corners. Once again drivers are going to have to qualify well so they can start up front and not have to worry about the leaders catching them in the first twenty laps of the race. At least with the race scheduled for Saturday night, if it rains they can run on Sunday and we won’t have to keep checking back to see if and when the race will be run.

Brad Keselowski: I am going to pick Brad to win this week. I picked him to win at Bristol and that didn’t pan out so well, but he did qualify well there and was fast in all of the practice sessions. Brad won the fall race here last year and finished fourth in the spring race. If he can stay out of trouble early in this week’s race, I think he can take the checkered flag.

Joey Logano: Joey won this race last year, finished third the previous year in the spring race, and finished sixth here last fall. That just tells me that the Penske teams have a good handle on this track and they should be the drivers to beat. Besides, both of these drivers want to make up for their disappointing showing at Bristol last weekend.

Kevin Harvick: Once again Kevin showed that he can be good every week on any type of track. If he doesn’t get caught up in a wreck with lapped traffic at Bristol he has a chance to win that race too. Kevin has won two of the past seven races at Richmond and I’m sure that he will come with another fast car capable of winning this week also. It is hard to stop this team right now.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff hasn’t won a race at Richmond since 2000, but he finished second in both of the races here last season. He has also qualified in the top ten in five of his last six races here and was close to winning at Bristol last week. This team needs to avoid costly mistakes in the pits so they don’t have to keep fighting their way back to the front during races.

Carl Edwards: Carl won the fall race here in 2013 and has finished in the top ten in eight of his last ten starts here. Carl was another driver looking for his first win of the season that came very close last weekend. These teams that are consistently coming to close to winning races are going to break through sooner rather than later.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver who has been running consistently towards the front of the pack over the past month and is getting closer and closer to that elusive first win of the season. Kurt has finished in the top ten at Richmond in three of his last four starts, finishing second in the fall race of 2013.

Ryan Newman: Ryan hasn’t won a race here since 2003, but he has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here. This team has fallen off a little bit over the past couple of races, but I think Ryan is capable of winning races almost every week. He said he didn’t have the best car at Bristol, but that the best car doesn’t always win at Bristol either.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is another driver who has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts at Richmond and has momentum on his side. With the monkey off his back now, Matt might go on a roll like he did two years ago when he lead the series in wins and almost won his second championship. I look for more wins from this team this year before the Chase starts.

Clint Bowyer: Clint hasn’t had the best cars in practice or qualifying this year. but he sure seems to figure it out during the race. Especially on these short flat tracks. Clint has finished in the top five in three of his last five starts here including a win back in the fall of 2012. This team wants to get a win really badly and make the Chase once again.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has never won a race at Richmond, but he has finished fourth here in two of his past three starts. This team seems to be very good early in races and makes most of the right adjustments to their car during the race. It seems that something always happens to him on the track to take him out of contention. Those kinds of things have a way of ruining your confidence, but I don’t think that is the case with Jamie.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Carl Edwards
  • Clint Bowyer
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Paul Menard