Kurt Busch ended up being the driver we all wanted in our lineups at Richmond and has now punched his ticket into the Chase. We now proceed to the unpredictability of restrictor plate racing this week at Talladega Superspeedway. Typically, there is not a dominating car at the Alabama track so you do not have to aggressively chase laps led and fast laps. I will include drivers in this article who have seen success at Talladega for my early week roster recommendations.
The best strategy is to pick a lineup that qualifies near the back of the field and gain points from start-to-finish differential. The restrictor plates allow drivers to easily move from the front to the back of the field. If you are deep in the standings of the league, you may want to pick drivers who do not see many lineups and hope you get lucky. Set your lineup and hope that when the dust settles, you have four cars who can finish one of the most entertaining races to watch all season.
While Dale Earnhardt Jr. is known for his success in Talladega, the driver who has seen the most recent success is Matt Kenseth. Over the last five races at Talladega, Kenseth has led a series-best 209 laps. His 13.6 average finish position is the best of the top-end drivers. Since 2005, Matt Kenseth has spent 64% of his laps running in the top-15. His 13 top-20 finishes since 2005 is tied with Clint Bowyer for the most in the series. If Kenseth qualifies near the back of the field, he will be the first choice for my lineup.
Speaking of Clint Bowyer, watching his team in 2015 has generally been a painful experience. The restrictor plates are an equalizer for struggling teams and Bowyer has found consistent success at this week’s track. While he has not led too many laps here, Bowyer has an 11th place average at the track and a positive start-to-finish differential. His 13 top-20 finishes in 18 races shows that he usually avoids the big wreck. Bowyer will likely be a member of my roster this week.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a scary option for most weeks. With a +14 start-to-finish differential and an 11.4 average finish position in three races, Stenhouse has seen early success. He also has two top-10 finishes already and has stayed away from the carnage. In a race filled with quality budget options, Stenhouse has a high probability of success this week.
David Ragan will soon be switching from the #18 team to the #55 team. Whichever team he drives for, he should have a solid run in Talladega. Ragan’s value has increased since the beginning of the season and almost cannot be defined as a budget option unless you have stashed him on your roster. Ragan has averaged a 15th place finish over his last five Talladega races. Although he has only led nine laps during this time span, one of those laps propelled him to victory two years ago. Ragan has ten top-20 finishes in 16 Talladega races. He should be on your roster if he qualifies at the end of the field.
For once, I still have salary cap room available for the 5th roster spot. I am regretting leaving Kurt Busch off of my roster last week. He has not seen recent success at the track, as evidenced by his 25th place average finish position during the last five Talladega races. Long-term, he is tied for the best in the series with 64% of his laps inside the top-15 since 2005. With 12 top-20 finishes in 20 races, Kurt Busch can drive well here.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to manage the talent we choose every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Talladega races. Next, we divide the average number of points by the salary cap figure to help find potential value. By the end of this weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a good chance to find my roster. He is off right now, and we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.
DALE EARNHARDT JR AT TALLADEGA
- Average finish position last five Talladega races: 19.2 equals 24.8 Fantasy Live points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative 1.2 equals negative 1.2 points per race
- Laps led: 113 equals 11.3 points per race
- Fast laps: 14 equals 1.4 points per race
- Total points per Talladega race: 62.67
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
- Points per Dollar:62.67 divided by $27.25 equals 2.30 points per dollar
Below you will find the Points per Dollar for each driver. My picks are highlighted in bold. We will use 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Good luck and make sure to tweak your lineup after qualifying.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Matt Kenseth 3.88
- Jimmie Johnson 2.87
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.30
- Kyle Larson 2.13
- Kevin Harvick 1.69
- Jamie McMurray 1.62
- Denny Hamlin 1.23
- Jeff Gordon 1.17
- Kasey Kahne 1.06
- Brad Keselowski 1.00
- Joey Logano 0.90
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Greg Biffle 2.81
- Clint Bowyer 2.15
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
- Paul Menard 1.29
- Ryan Newman 1.28
- Aric Almirola 1.05
- Kurt Busch 0.89
- Carl Edwards 0.71
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Austin Dillon 1.57
- AJ Allmendinger 1.30
- Sam Hornish Jr. 0.69
- Tony Stewart 0.24
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
- David Gilliland 3.67
- Bobby Labonte 3.56
- David Ragan 3.49
- Justin Allgaier 2.98
- Michael Waltrip 2.73
- Casey Mears 1.91
- Danica Patrick 1.21
- Ryan Blaney 0.30
- Trevor Bayne 0.10
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Landon Cassill 5.04
- JJ Yeley 2.97
- Josh Wise 2.80
- Cole Whitt 2.55
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.50*
- Brendan Gaughan 2.45*
- Michael McDowell 1.92
- Jeb Burton 1.12*
- Michael Annett 0.75
- Alex Bowman (-0.14)
- Brian Scott (-4.75)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.