Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 BRISTOL, FOOD CITY 500 IN SUPPORT OF STEVE BYRNES AND STAND UP TO CANCER

After watching Jimmie Johnson hold off Kevin Harvick in the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway for his second win of the season, NASCAR moves back east to Bristol Motor Speedway. Due to the nature of the track, Bristol is one of the most exciting races of the season. This week’s pick is challenging because there are many drivers who have seen success at the steep track.

My suggestion is to front-load your lineup and hope you pick the drivers who dominate the laps led and fast laps. With 500 laps in the race, there will be a great disparity between the haves and the have nots in your fantasy leagues. Keep a close eye on qualifying as you may want to roster the teams that start at the front.

The first driver on my team seems to always be running in 8th place, and I hope this pattern changes this week. Over the past five Bristol races, Kenseth has twice as many laps led as the second-best driver (tied between Hamlin and Edwards). His average finish position is a modest 15.4, but his lap-to-lap performance is the best in the series. With eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Kenseth has seen the most success at the track. After ignoring track history last week and keeping Jimmie Johnson out of my lineup, I want to make sure the driver with the best track history remains in my lineup.

The second driver for my lineup has the best average finish position over the past five Bristol races. Joey Logano was in my lineup last week, and stayed in the top-5 for most of the race. However, he did not lead too many laps and was only an adequate selection. He is second to Kenseth in lap-to-lap performance and has a high probability for success this week. Although his long-term numbers at the track are not impressive, Logano is one of the best drivers in the series and should run near the top.

Usually, I select the third top driver for my lineup and fill the remaining with the best available budget drivers. Due to the value of Justin Allgaier and David Ragan this week, I added the budget drivers first and will fill the fifth spot with the best driver available. Allgaier seems like he wrecks every week, and I am afraid to include him on my roster. He generally outperforms his value on shorter tracks and averaged an 18th place finish in two Bristol races. He had similar numbers at Martinsville and did not finish the race. I will take the risk and hope it pays off.

I left David Ragan off my roster a couple of weeks ago at Martinsville due to his underwhelming track data. I regretted keeping him off my team. The scenario is similar at Bristol, where Ragan enjoys a 23rd place average finish over the last five races. That number should alone provide value. With the #18 team, he is likely to improve on his average. If you value track data, then you may want to choose Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has great numbers in a limited amount of Bristol races.

With the remaining budget, the best driver for the final roster spot is Carl Edwards. Edwards has led 242 laps over his last five Bristol races and is becoming more consistent as the season progresses. He only has a 17th place average finish position over the same time span, which makes him slightly risky. With nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Edwards has shown enough consistency at the track to be a contender this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Bristol races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure in order to know which starters will provide the most value for your fantasy dollars. I like Kasey Kahne this week, but he got squeezed out of my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use Kasey’s Bristol numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT BRISTOL

  • Average finish position last five Bristol races: 11th place equals 33 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 2.4 equals 2.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 207 laps equals 20.7 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: 215 equals 21.5 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total points per Bristol race: 72.8
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap: $25.00
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 2.91

Below are the numbers for each driver. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Recommended picks are in bold. Stay tuned after qualifying as I try to include any updates in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.47
  • Kasey Kahne 2.91
  • Joey Logano 2.45
  • Kyle Larson 2.24
  • Jamie McMurray 1.85
  • Jeff Gordon 1.82
  • Denny Hamlin 1.80
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.75
  • Brad Keselowski 1.46
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.40
  • Kevin Harvick 1.37

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.77
  • Clint Bowyer 2.34
  • Paul Menard 2.12
  • Greg Biffle 2.03
  • Kurt Busch 1.48
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.25
  • Ryan Newman 1.06
  • Aric Almirola 0.74

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.81
  • Tony Stewart 1.39
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.31

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
  • Justin Allgaier 3.48
  • Danica Patrick 2.00
  • David Gilliland 1.91
  • David Ragan 1.68
  • Casey Mears 1.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Chris Bueschler 4.62 *
  • JJ Yeley 4.60
  • Landon Cassill 3.27
  • Alex Kennedy 2.72 *
  • Josh Wise 2.37
  • Michael Annett 2.32
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.26 *
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • Mike Bliss 1.81 *
  • Jeb Burton 1.77 *
  • Alex Bowman 1.71
  • Michael McDowell 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 0.08
  • Brett Moffitt (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Bristol Motor Speedway, Food City 500 In Support Of Steve Byrnes And Stand Up To Cancer

Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson, who picked up his second win of the season at Texas Motor Speedway on Saturday night. Jimmie passed Kevin Harvick after the final restart and then held him off to tie Kevin for the most wins on the season so far. It was well worth watching Kevin do everything he could to try and catch Johnson while holding off Dale Earnhardt Jr. for second place.

FOOD CITY 500 IN SUPPORT OF STEVE BYRNES AND STAND UP TO CANCER

This week the series heads to Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Food City 500 in Support of Steve Byrnes and Stand Up To Cancer. Steve is a FOX Sports broadcaster that is battling head-and-neck cancer and I wish him the best of luck in his fight and hope to see him back on the broadcast team in the future. Get well Steve!

Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the shortest tracks on the circuit. The track is similar in length to Martinsville, but that is where the similarities end. Where Martinsville is quite flat, Bristol has high banking. Actually it has 26 to 30 degree banking in the corners and the drivers will turn a lap in less than 15-seconds. Qualifying is very important here, because if you qualify in towards the back, you will find yourself about half of a lap behind the leader when you start.

With that in mind, penalties will kill a drivers chances at this track. With the new technology NASCAR is using this year there have been more penalties called in the first seven races of the year than during the entire season last year, and they aren’t even looking at missed or loosed lug nuts! Most of the penalties are do to uncontrolled tires, too many men over the wall, and driving through too many pit stalls. Oh yeah, don’t forget too fast entering or exiting pit road. Teams will have to avoid all penalties to stay in contention this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: I am going to pick Brad as my driver to win this week’s race. Brad has two wins here in ten starts and has finished in the top 5 in four of those ten races. This is the type of racing Brad loves. He can mix it up with other drivers and do a little beating and banging as he works his way through traffic. You can’t let it bother you if you are constantly getting hit by the car behind you at Bristol if you want to win this race.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has five wins at this track and has really run well so far this season. He would like to get a win as he has already worked his way into the top thirty in the standings after being suspended for the first three races of the season. A win would qualify this team for the Chase and I think this is one of the tracks where Kurt will be better than Kevin Harvick with the same setup under their cars.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has five wins here in his career. He has also finished in the top ten in more than half of his forty-four starts at this track. Those are impressive numbers when you consider how small the track is and that there are forty-three other cars on the track with you. That means there is always other cars in your general vicinity at all times during the race.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is still looking for his first points race win since the 2013 season. He has won three races at Bristol during his career and has also finished in the top ten here in nineteen of his thirty starts. It seems like the Gibbs cars don’t have quite the speed as the Hendrick cars at this point of the season, but that shouldn’t really matter at this short track.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won three races at this track during his career including winning this race last season. This team seems to be getting a little better every week and they knew there would be growing pains when the season started. As a new team it isn’t surprising that Carl has struggled during parts of races and his finishing position is not where he would like it to be. They will be in victory lane very soon.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has only won one race here during his career, but he seems to finish quite well most of the time. He has finished in the top ten in fourteen of his twenty-six starts at Bristol and we all know that this team can win multiple weeks in a row. With the momentum from last week’s win on their side, they might pull off another victory.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has been close to winning races this season, but he wants to get that win and guarantee himself a spot in the Chase. He has won one race at Bristol before and has finished in the top ten there in fourteen of his thirty career starts. The main thing is to stay out of trouble on pit road this weekend and you will be in contention at the end of the race.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has quietly put together another great season so far. He has slipped a little the last two races, but this week as he heads to Bristol he should be optimistic that he can get his first win of the season. He has won three times at this track and this team has equipment that is very capable of winning races at any track. This weekend will be no different and Ryan could very well find himself in victory lane at the end of the race.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won this race two years ago for his first victory at Bristol. He has also finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here and has been running better and better every week. This team needs to have better pit stops, as it seems they are constantly losing positions on the track when they pit. You can’t afford to keep giving up spots in the pits, especially at a place like Bristol.

Paul Menard: Paul has finished in the top ten at Bristol in five of his last six starts. This team has been performing well all season and was having a great run at Texas last week until something happened to their ignition system as Paul was running in the top five more than halfway through the race. If this team keeps making improvements and can find themselves in the Chase, they could surprise people like Ryan Newman did last season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Carl Edwards
  • Kasey Kahne
  • Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Brett Moffitt

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Kasey Kahne

Dark Horse: Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TEXAS, DUCK COMMANDER 500

After taking a week off for Easter, we return to racing in Texas. With a few top drivers struggling in Martinsville, some of us had an extra week to brood about the lackluster effort of our fantasy roster. The extra week off allowed me to research data points specific to Fantasy Live for each driver in relation to the first six races in 2015. This data helped me to point to drivers I have not yet considered this season. The conclusion is that you should start drivers with a salary cap figure above $25 and below $10. There were few drivers who provided adequate value in the middle, but generally the best value is at the top and bottom. As a result, my suggested strategy is to front-load your lineup and fill the remaining spots with value choices.

For one reason or another, Joey Logano has avoided my lineups so far this season. For the top drivers in 2015, Logano has the second-most Fantasy Live points per dollar after six races. Also, Logano has the best average finish position in Texas over the last five races. The only track where Logano has enjoyed better lap-to-lap performance over the last five races is at Michigan. When a top driver in the current season is on a top track, he should find your lineup. Joey Logano should provide value for your team this week.

The next pick for my roster is due to his 2015 success as opposed to success in Texas. Kevin Harvick is average 134 laps led per race so far in 2015. Success in laps led and average finish position has translated to a series-best 4.62 fantasy points per dollar this season. While Texas is not his best track in the series, he has averaged a respectable average finish position of 14.8. Also, he has 11 Top Ten finishes since 2005. Harvick gets a slight nod over Keselowski and Johnson due to his historical start in 2015. He will cool off, but I will keep him on my roster until he falls back to earth.

The most surprising success of 2015 is my third pick for my roster. Martin Truex Jr. is one of the few middle-priced driving providing value with 2.43 fantasy points per dollar in 2015. With worse teams, Truex has averaged a 13.2 finish position at Texas. Intermediate tracks are the most friendly to Truex, and he is a top five driver this season. With 15 Top 20 finishes in his last 19 races, Truex has a good change to outperform his value for a seventh week.

Truex’s addition to my roster provides me with a little more flexibility than I am used to for the final two roster spots. The battle for the fourth spot is a toss-up between Casey Mears and David Ragan. Mears has provided slightly higher points per fantasy dollar in 2015, but I feel that Ragan provides more upside. Ragan finally earned a top ten finish in Martinsville. While he has only averaged a 32nd place finish at Texas over the last five races, even an average finish will provide value for his salary cap figure.

I was surprised that the fifth roster pick provided the most value for regular drivers with a salary cap figure below $10. Cole Whitt has quietly been rewarding fantasy owners with 2.72 fantasy points per dollar after six races in 2015. He has a 28.5 average finish position in two Texas races. I like his chances to provide my team with value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Texas races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each fantasy driver. I am ticked off at Jimmie Johnson after Martinsville. Emotion should be left out of fantasy sports, but he will be off my lineup. His Texas numbers over the last five races are dominating, and I will use these numbers to illustrate our formula. Good luck bouncing back in Texas!

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT TEXAS

  • Average finish position last five Texas races: 6.8 equals 37.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential last five Texas races: Negative 0.8 equals negative 0.8 points per race
  • Laps led last five Texas races: 614 equals 61.4 points per race
  • Fast laps last five Texas races: 283 equals 28.3 points per race
  • Average points per race: 126.1

Below is the Fantasy Points per dollar for each driver over the past five Texas races. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers for 2015. This week’s suggested are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 4.63
  • Brad Keselowski 2.64
  • Joey Logano 2.09
  • Matt Kenseth 1.86
  • Kyle Larson 1.81
  • Denny Hamlin 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.24
  • Kevin Harvick 1.20
  • Jeff Gordon 1.07
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.00

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.06
  • Clint Bowyer 1.90
  • Ryan Newman 1.82
  • Kasey Kahne 1.20
  • Paul Menard 1.20
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kurt Busch 0.72

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.43
  • Tony Stewart 2.30
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.97
  • Aric Almirola 1.30
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.30
  • Trevor Bayne 1.11
  • Austin Dillon 1.03

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.54
  • Danica Patrick 1.62
  • David Gilliland 1.59
  • Casey Mears 1.44
  • David Ragan 1.08
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.85
  • Ryan Blaney 0.53 *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Brian Scott 3.53 *
  • Michael Annett 3.28
  • Cole Whitt 3.08
  • DiBenedetto 2.40 *
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • JJ Yeley 2.00
  • Landon Cassill 1.83
  • Josh Wise 1.14
  • Brett Moffitt 0.61
  • Michael McDowell 0.56
  • Alex Bowman 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Texas Motor Speedway, Duck Commander 500

Congratulations to Denny Hamlin who won his first race of the season at Martinsville and is now virtually qualified for the Chase. Denny had to overcome an early pit road penalty for an uncontrolled tire and fight his way back to the front of the field. Even late in the race he had to pass quite a few cars on a restart and then hold off Brad Keselowski to pick up the win. Great job Denny!

DUCK COMMANDER 500

The series will take a week off to celebrate the Easter holiday weekend and then they will return the following Saturday night to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Duck Commander 500. Texas Motor Speedway is very similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway in its configuration, but the temperature should be a bit warmer here than it was in Atlanta earlier this season. The 500-mile race will test engines most of all once again during this race.

Matt Kenseth: I’m going to pick Matt to win his first race of the season at Texas on a Saturday night. Matt has two career wins here and has finished in the top five in thirteen of his twenty-five starts. This team has been getting better and better each week this year and I think this is the type of track that Matt will capitalize on that improvement.

Kevin Harvick: Let’s not rule out Kevin anywhere on the circuit. Even though he didn’t finish in the top two at Martinsville, he managed to lead a bunch of laps there and he will be even better on this fast track. He will probably qualify in the top five once again and lead more laps in this race. He will also be in contention at the end if he can stay out of trouble early in the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie had a terrible time at Martinsville last weekend and this team wants to forget all about those problems. Jimmie won the race this year at Atlanta, so he should arrive at the track with a great setup under his car. This team is already qualified for the Chase because of the Atlanta win and just needs to keep improving over the weeks so they are ready to go once the Chase starts.

Joey Logano: Joey has been fast all season and should be fast once again at Texas. He sat on the pole at Atlanta and lead a bunch of laps there before settling for a fourth place finish. This team has been very fast early in races this year, but they just haven’t quite made the right adjustments late in the race to stay at the front. Even then, top five and ten finishes are still very good and winning the Daytona 500 is awesome.

Dale Earhardt Jr.: Dale had a rough time at Martinsville, but this team has still been very stout the rest of the year. I think this is the type of track this team really excels at as Dale loves to run the high line on these tracks. He might not qualify in the top ten, but he will be able to make his way to the front and they seem to know how to adjust their car to keep up with the track as the race progresses.

Carl Edwards: Carl looked good at Martinsville until very late in the race and he has three wins under his belt at Texas. Like I said with Matt Kenseth, the Gibbs teams are all looking better and better every week and Carl is still settling in with his new team. It won’t be long before they start winning races.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has been very good all season and this team has shown a lot of speed. This weekend should be no different. Evan though Martin has only finished in the top five twice in nineteen starts, I think this team is on top of their game right now. Will they be able to improve as the year progresses and keep up with the big budget teams? That question can only be answered by watching them every week, but for right now they are competitive every week.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has won twice at Texas and has momentum on his side after picking up the win at Martinsville last weekend. Another of the Gibbs drivers who are all getting better every week. This team doesn’t have any pressure on themselves anymore as they have qualified for the Chase. Now they just need to concentrate on staying consistent and getting faster so they feel good about themselves when the Chase starts.

Jeff Gordon: Another late race mistake on pit road cost Jeff a shot at the win at Martinsville. This team has been good all year, but seem to have something happen late in races that takes them out of contention. Jeff only has one career win at this track, but he did finish second in this race last season. Jeff wants to get qualified for the Chase as soon as possible in his last full-time season driving the #24 car.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has always been good at Texas no matter what team he has been driving for. He has also been good in all of the races he has run this season and is still looking for his first win so he can qualify for the Chase. He started out good at Martinsville before losing the handle on his car and fading. Texas should be more to his liking.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Martin Truex Jr.
  • Carl Edwards
  • Kurt Busch
  • Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • David Ragan
  • Justin Allgaier

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT INSERT TRACK NAME

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, STP 500

After three races on the west coast, NASCAR moves back east to the short track of Martinsville Speedway. There are no sure things in racing, but we have a better chance of being right at Martinsville than most weeks. Due to 500 laps at this race, laps led and fast laps are at a premium. I would suggest front-loading your lineup this week in an effort to capture these numbers.

Fantasy analysts and players love Martinsville because generally the drivers perform as expected. The predictable nature of the track usually make us all feel smarter for one week.

CREAM OF THE CROP

Two drivers who will find their way to the top two roster spots are Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Over the past five races at Martinsville, Johnson has averaged 195 laps led per race. Over the same time span, he has an average finish position of 8.2. His historical data is also impressive. In his last 20 races at the track, 15 have resulted in a top-5 finish. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has spent 89% of his laps in the top-15 and had a series-best 2,576 laps led. Johnson is a safe bet to be an asset to your fantasy lineup this week.

Jeff Gordon has numbers that are equally impressive. He has a 5th place average over his past five Martinsville races. Since 2005, Gordon has 16 top-5 finishes in 20 races. He also has a 5th place average finish and 88% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span. With 1,869 laps led, Gordon is second to Johnson in this category. Gordon is a dependable driver to choose this week for your lineup.

REMAINING ROSTER SPOTS

The choice for the third driver for your lineup is not as clear of a choice. One can choose a driver with recent success in the series like Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski. The other strategy would be to choose a driver with historical track data like Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, or Clint Bowyer. Since Martinsville is generally a track with predictable outcomes, I am leaning towards choosing a driver with a successful track history.

Denny Hamlin has excellent long-term numbers at the track. His 16th place average finish position over the last five races is enough to scare me away from adding him to my roster. Kenseth has an 8th place average finish over his last five Martinsville races, but I am going to lean towards Clint Bowyer this week because of his lower salary cap figure.

While his 2015 effort has been mediocre, Clint Bowyer has enough recent success at the paperclip track to be worth the risk. If he makes his way into your lineup, keep an eye on the qualifying sessions and practice times to make sure he is fast. Bowyer has an average finish position of 5.2 over the past five races and the third-best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Since 2005, Bowyer has the fifth-best average finish position at the track (behind Gordon, Johnson, Hamlin, and Dale Jr.) With 12 top-10 finishes in his last 18 races, Bowyer should be an option in your lineup that will give your lineup additional flexibility for the final two spots.

While consistency is beneficial for the top of your lineup, consistency can be an enemy when attempting to select budget options at the bottom of your roster. Bowyer’s cap value is low enough to provide the salary cap room to add Justin Allgaier onto my roster. He has a 20th place average in two races last year. In a race where budget options are at a premium, I expect Allgaier to be a valuable addition to my roster if he matches his track average. He is slightly better than last year and specializes on short tracks.

The fifth choice for my roster was originally for David Ragan’s team, but I went a different direction with the pick. With Chase Elliot starting his NASCAR career at a $9.00 salary cap value, I will take the risk on the rookie. The expectations are low because he will be driving the #25 car. A $9.00 cap is a low risk, and there is a high reward. If he looks suspect in qualifying, then I will switch my pick back to David Ragan.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on www.nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the top driver, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five Martinsville races. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure on Fantasy Live. The end result is a number that will indicate which drivers provide the most value for each fantasy dollar. Since Denny Hamlin was a near miss on my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

  • Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 16.8 equals 27.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 13.5 equals (-13.5) points per race
  • Laps Led last five Martinsville races: 94 equals 9.4 points per race
  • Fast Laps last five Martinsville races: 117 equals 11.7 points per race
  • Total points per race: 40.08
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $25.50
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 40.08 / $25.50 equals 1.57 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per Fantasy Live dollar for each drivers. This week’s recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers who do not have a track history. Good luck in fantasy racing this week!

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.79
  • Jeff Gordon 3.73
  • Matt Kenseth 3.04
  • Denny Hamlin 1.57
  • Kasey Kahne 1.46
  • Joey Logano 1.43
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Kevin Harvick 1.16
  • Kyle Larson 0.09

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 3.78
  • Greg Biffle 2.25
  • Paul Menard 1.38
  • Carl Edwards 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.12
  • Ryan Newman 0.81

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.97
  • Austin Dillon 2.42
  • Aric Almirola 2.01
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.96
  • Tony Stewart 1.39
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.56

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.96
  • David Gilliland 2.59
  • Danica Patrick 2.03
  • Casey Mears 1.78
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.87
  • David Ragan 0.86

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.67
  • JJ Yeley 3.52
  • Brett Moffitt 3.25 *
  • Landon Cassill 3.23
  • Cole Whitt 2.57
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • Mike Bliss 1.90 *
  • Alex Kennedy 1.80 *
  • Josh Wise 1.67
  • Jeb Burton 1.35 *
  • Mike DiBenedetto 0.95 *
  • Alex Bowman 0.70
  • Chase Elliot n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.