Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DARLINGTON, BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

NASCAR pulled a switch this year and the Labor Day race has moved to Darlington, South Carolina. Darlington Raceway is an historic track that is difficult for drivers to negotiate. As an Atlanta resident, I am slightly disappointed that our holiday race has moved to April. However, this week’s race will be fun to watch as drivers get frustrated at the conditions during the race.

For NASCAR Fantasy Live purposes, this is a good week to front-load your lineups. If you are far behind in the standings, you can pick drivers who are not Chase eligible like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne. They will be forced to take the risks you need to get back into the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, you can go with a conservative approach to your lineup and pick winless drivers who are currently set to go to the Chase like Jeff Gordon and Paul Menard as they will be attempting to avoid big mistakes this week.

As a regular to my lineup this season, Kevin Harvick has helped my team towards the top of the standings. He won last April’s race in Darlington, leading 238 laps on his way to the winner’s circle. We hope that he repeats his efforts from last year’s race. Over the last 5 races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average. He has the top team so far this season, logging 15 top-5 finishes through 22 races. Harvick has the most laps led of any driver this year by a wide margin, and there is no sign of regression. Keep Harvick in your lineup as long as he keeps up his level of production.

Denny Hamlin finished in the middle of the pack in last year’s race, but that is a rare circumstance. Since 2005, Hamlin has earned seven top-10 finishes in nine races. Recently, Hamlin has a 6th average and is running 99% of his laps inside the top-15 over the last five Darlington races. With only nine top-10 finishes in 2015 through 22 races, Hamlin has not been one of the elite drivers in the Series. In Hamlin’s case, I am valuing track history over seasonal statistics.

For the third spot in my lineup, I am recommending a driver that I had completely written off at one point of the season. Kyle Busch has recovered from a broken leg to win four races in 2015 and establish himself as a Chase contender. Kyle Busch has found success in South Carolina. Over the last five races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has earned four top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position. His 416 laps led over this stretch is the most in the Series. I expect Kyle Busch to be one of the front-runners for this week.

With a large chunk of my budget allocated to the top-three spots, I will need to choose the best budget options for my final two recommendations. Although I do not trust him on a tricky track like Darlington, Chase Elliot is in the lineup for his final installment before he joins the series full-time next season. In his previous four races this season, Elliot has averaged a 22nd place finish. As far as budget options, you will be hard-pressed to find one with more upside. For the fifth spot, I will go with my usual budget recommendation in Michael Annett. Annett only has a 32nd place average finish position and finished in 42nd place at Darlington last year. I may keep an eye on qualifying and switch him out if another budget driver looks more tempting. Alex Bowman and Matt DiBenedetto stand out as possible replacements.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. For our formula, we first calculate the total number of points earned by each driver over the last five Darlington races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Greg Biffle is a healthy option for a team that wants to go for broke in the standings. He has the most laps led since 2005 at Darlington. We will use his numbers to illustrate the points per dollar formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT DARLINGTON

  • Average finish position last five Darlington races: 12th place average equals 32 points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Plus 1.6 equals 1.6 points per race
  • Laps led: 79 equals 7.9 points per race
  • Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 46
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $19.25
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar. 46 divided by 19.25 equals 2.39 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar for all drivers entered at Darlington this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for any rookie driver with no track data. Good luck as we make the push towards the Fantasy NASCAR playoffs.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.70
  • Kevin Harvick 2.89
  • Denny Hamlin 2.41
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.25
  • Matt Kenseth 2.03
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.77
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brad Keselowski 1.07
  • Joey Logano 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.57
  • Jeff Gordon 2.35
  • Kyle Larson 2.13
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.72
  • Jamie McMurray 1.47
  • Ryan Newman 1.41
  • Clint Bowyer 1.33
  • Paul Menard 0.44

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.03
  • Austin Dillon 2.87
  • Greg Biffle 2.39
  • David Ragan 1.82
  • Aric Almirola 0.72

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 2.45
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.39
  • Justin Allgaier 2.35
  • Chase Elliott 2.00 *
  • Casey Mears 1.69
  • Cole Whitt 0.74
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 4.76
  • Timmy Hill 3.90
  • Alex Bowman 2.58
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.35 *
  • Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
  • Landon Cassill 2.13
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • David Gilliland 1.96
  • Reed Sorenson 1.69
  • Josh Wise 1.39
  • JJ Yeley 0.90
  • Mike Bliss (-0.73)
  • Michael Annett (-1.67)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Darlington Raceway, Bojangles’ Southern 500

There are only two races left before the start of the Chase. Will we get a new winner that knocks someone out of the Chase who is trying to get in on points or will the next two race victories be claimed by drivers who are already qualified thus letting those without a win make it on points? Those questions will be answered after the Darlington and Richmond checkered flags fly.

BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

After taking a week off the series heads to Darlington Raceway for the running of the Bojangles’ Southern 500. The track also known as ‘The Track Too Tough to Tame’ and ‘The Lady in Black’ moves back to its Labor Day Weekend date this year. Daryl Waltrip said ‘This ain’t no lady’ during a broadcast once and he is spot on. You will hear them talk about the Darlington stripe this weekend, which is the mark that is left on a car and the wall when a car brushes up against it. The reason for this is the way the track is configured. It is more egg shaped than oval and when you come off the corner you better remember that or you will find yourself in the wall.

I am looking forward to this race as many drivers will be going to retro paint schemes this weekend. Dale Earnhardt Jr. will be running Mark Martins 1998 scheme with Valvoline as his sponsor. Jeb Burton will be running his father Ward’s black and yellow scheme, and Brad Keselowski will drive a Miller High Life car painted like the one Bobby Allison drove back in the 1970’s. Those are just a few of the paint schemes you will see this weekend. In all at least 29 drivers will have some type of retro paint scheme, so you will really need to focus to know who is who on the track.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin Harvick to finally return to victory lane this weekend at Darlington. He won this race last year after leading 238 laps and has finished in the top five here in his last two starts. He has finished second ten times this season to go along with his two wins and it is time for him to get back to victory lane. Kevin will be driving a retro Budweiser car this weekend.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race two years ago and has three straight top ten finishes here. The Joe Gibbs teams have been outstanding the past two months and this is another track they all seem to excel at. Matt always seems to have one of the best pit crews in the business and he never gets excited during a race. After losing an engine early at Bristol, Matt will be looking forward to getting back on the track.
Jeff Gordon: Jeff leads all active drivers with seven wins at Darlington. He has also finished in the top five in eight of his last eleven starts here and would love to pick up a win before the start of the Chase which would guarantee himself a spot no matter what happens at Richmond. This might be his best shot at picking up a win in his final season.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three wins and nine top ten finishes in his sixteen starts here. This team really needs to step up their program and stop making mistakes on pit road if they want to have a shot at winning another championship this season. Miscues during the Chase can knock a driver out in a hurry and the time to stop making those mistakes starts now, not when the Chase gets underway.

Ryan Newman: Ryan has a 63-point lead over Aric Almirola who is the first driver on the outside of Chase. If we don’t get a new winner in the next two weeks Ryan will once again make the Chase without a win as he enters. I think he is pretty safe and Darlington is one of the tracks he really runs well at consistently. He has seven top five and eleven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track and is looking for his first win here.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in seven of his nine starts here. As I said before, the Joe Gibbs teams have all looked very good the past two months and they will all have a shot at picking up a win this weekend. If Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win his second championship this year, he will see all of the JGR drivers in his rear view mirror looking to take that championship away from him.

Carl Edwards: Carl is still looking for his first win at Darlington but, he has finished in the top ten in seven of his eleven starts including two second place finishes. I think this team is still working on some communication issues and getting the right adjustments made on their car as the races progress. Still not bad for a team that is in their first year together.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has been the driver to beat almost every week for the past two months. In that time he has four wins and moved himself into the top thirty in points and he is now Chase eligible. He has a 46-point lead over Cole Whitt and that should be enough for him to make the Chase. He still needs to be careful early in the races because finishing towards the end of the pack could knock him out if he has two bad races in a row. At the end of the race he can go for the win again.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has nine top ten finishes in his twenty starts at this track and he finished second here last season. He has a top ten car every week it seems and that should be good enough to make it through the first round of the Chase but, teams will need to keep improving as the Chase wears on if they want to be in the final round at Homestead-Miami.

Tony Stewart: Tony is still looking for his first win at Darlington where he has finished in the top ten in twelve of his twenty-two starts. This team seems to be doing a little better and has qualified well and run well early in races lately but, then they lose the handling on the car or have some other issue on pit road or on the track and then they end up finishing the races a few laps down.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DARLINGTON RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ryan Blaney
  • Chase Elliott

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DARLINGTON RACEWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Jimmie Johnson
  4. Denny Hamlin
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kasey Kahne

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 BRISTOL, IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE

The NASCAR series returns south of the Mason-Dixon this week and returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for the second running of the season. When Brad Keselowski ran into Joey Logano in the early laps, I saw two drivers in my lineup limp to bad results earlier this season. I am hoping for better luck in the second installment.

With only a few races until the Chase, drivers have different strategies. Likewise, your fantasy teams position in the NASCAR Fantasy Live standings should determine how you handle your lineup. If you want to play it safe, choose drivers on the bubble of qualifying for the Chase as they are likely to have conservative setups. If you find yourself at the bottom of the standings, go for broke with drivers who need to win to get in. Either way, the key to Bristol is to pick the drivers who lead laps. Like last week with Matt Kenseth, this is a race of the haves and the have-nots. The amount of laps will enable dramatic swings in the standings. Your basic strategy should be to front-load your lineup in an effort to caputrue the laps led. My recommended lineup is based on a conservative approach based on my current position in the standings.

My first choice for my lineup won the Bristol Food City 500 race in 2015. Though he rarely finds his way onto my team, Matt Kenseth has seen consistent success at the short track. Over the last five Bristol races, he has two wins under his belt and three top-5 finishes. His 508 laps led during this stretch is the best in the series. He only led 47 laps in his winning effort in April, but he spent 100% of his laps inside the top-15 and had an average running position of 3rd. Over the long haul, Kenseth has 14 top-10 finishes since 2005 and has the second-most laps led. In 2015, Kenseth has enjoyed eight top-5 and 14 top-10 finishes in the first 22 races. He has only led 147 laps this entire season, but luckily two of those laps got him to the winner’s circle. Though not usually one of my lineup recommendations, Matt Kenseth should help your team this week.

The 2nd roster spot is reserved to a driver who is not a stranger to my Fantasy Live lineup. Kevin Harvick had a rare bad finish at the last Bristol race, but led 184 laps before being wrecked. With only six top-10 finishes in the last 21 Bristol races, Harvick has not seen long-term success in Tennessee. Harvick has hands-down been the best driver in the Series in 2015. With 15 top-5 finishes and 1,391 laps led this season, Harvick has a high probability for success this week if he can stay clear of the wrecks this time.

While Kyle Busch has long-term success at the track and was a tempting roster choice, there were some low cost drivers that I wanted on my roster. As a result, I had to save some salary cap funds with the 3rd spot. Paul Menard has earned three top-10 finishes in his last five Bristol races. In 2015, Menard has four top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 15.8. My concern with Menard is that I can leave a lot of points on the table with laps led and fast laps, but he should not hurt my team with a solid finish.

I left a little extra salary cap room for the final two spots because I like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Justin Allgaier. Stenhouse finished in 4th place in the April race at Bristol. Over five starts at the track, Stenhouse has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position in Bristol. His salary cap figure is low due to a 26th place average finish position in 2015. I expect the #17 car to exceed expectations this week. Justin Allgaier is always a risky option as he ends up in the wall as often as he crosses the finish line. He finished in 8th place in Bristol earlier this season and has a 14th place average finish at the track. Like Stenhouse, his 27th place average finish position in 2015 is pedestrian. There is a chance I could alter my lineup after qualifying to try to capture the laps led points, but I want to keep the #17 and #51 if at all possible. If you look at the numbers, there is value with the budget drivers this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Bristol races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap number to find out which drivers are expected to provide the most value. Joey Logano has been on a tear over the last month and a half. Although he missed my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JOEY LOGANO AT BRISTOL

  • Laps Led last five Bristol races: 89 equals 8.9 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast Laps: 88 equals 8.8 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average Finish Position: 16.6 equals 27.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Negative 10.4 equals (-10.4 Fantasy Live points per race)
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 34.7
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 34.7 divided by $27.75 equals 1.25 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in the field this week. For drivers with no track data, we will use the 2015 numbers to give you an idea how much value to expect this week. My picks are highlighted in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.68
  • Kevin Harvick 1.89
  • Kurt Busch 1.82
  • Jamie McMurray 1.80
  • Kyle Busch 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.48
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.46
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.25
  • Denny Hamlin 0.88

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 3.43
  • Carl Edwards 2.78
  • Kasey Kahne 2.43
  • Clint Bowyer 2.19
  • Jeff Gordon 2.10
  • Paul Menard 2.08
  • Ryan Newman 1.58
  • Aric Almirola 1.42
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.49

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.62
  • Austin Dillon 2.22
  • Greg Biffle 2.10

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.78
  • Justin Allgaier 3.76
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 3.10
  • Danica Patrick 2.46
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.66
  • Trevor Bayne 1.47
  • David Ragan 1.42
  • Casey Mears 1.36
  • Cole Whitt 0.97
  • Ryan Blaney 0.73 *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.12
  • Reed Sorenson 5.00
  • JJ Yeley 4.09
  • Michael Annett 3.69
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.31
  • Alex Bowman 2.92
  • Josh Wise 2.85
  • David Gilliland 2.42
  • Brett Moffitt 1.79
  • Mike Bliss 1.48
  • Michael McDowell 0.81
  • Timmy Hill 0.20
  • Jeb Burton (-0.95)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Bristol Motor Speedway, Irwin Tools Night Race

Congratulations to Matt Kenseth who picked up his third win of the season this past weekend in Michigan. All of the Joe Gibbs teams are looking good as we close in on the start of the Chase. There are only three races left before the start of the Chase now and we could get a new winner in any of those races which will knock out a driver who is trying to get in on points. These next three races are very critical to every driver without a win this season.

IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE

This week the series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Irwin Tools Night Race. As the name suggests, this race will be run on Saturday night weather permitting. This 0.533-mile concrete oval has 26-30 degree banking in the corners and drivers make a lap in about fifteen seconds. That means if you make a mistake you are going to get lapped in a hurry here. If you have a problem and have to pit under green you are going to lose multiple laps.

Kyle Busch: Kyle now sits in 29th place in the standings and has a twenty-three point lead over Cole Whitt who sits in thirty-first place. With five career wins at this track and the way he has run over the past two months, Kyle is my pick to win this week’s race. He has finished in the top five in eight of his twenty career starts here and he has the right attitude to get the job done here once again.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has four wins at this track including a win here in the spring race this season. He has also finished in the top ten in nine of his last twelve starts at this track and has momentum on his side after his dominating performance at Michigan last week. Once again it looks like the Joe Gibbs teams will be the teams to beat this weekend at Bristol.

Kurt Busch: Kurt, like his brother Kyle, has five wins at this track also. However, his last win here came way back in the 2006 season. Now that he is on a new team and is already qualified for the Chase, I think Kurt will come out with the fire he had when he was almost unbeatable at this track. I would love to see a last lap showdown between the Busch brothers this Saturday night.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has five career wins at Bristol and his last win here came even further back then Kurt’s. Jeff’s last win at this track was the fall race in 2002. Jeff would really like to pick up a win and lock himself into the Chase and not have to worry about getting in on points. I think he will have no problem using the chrome bumper at Bristol like he has done in the past to put himself in position to win this race.

Carl Edwards: Carl has three career wins at Bristol with the last coming in the spring race last season. Like I said earlier, all of the Joe Gibbs teams have run very well over the past two months and I think they are all going to run well once again this weekend. I think it is going to be hard for any other team to knock all of these guys off the top of the podium this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won twice at this track in eleven starts and has four top three finishes in those eleven starts. This team has struggled a little bit recently with the handling of their car early in races but, they have come back strong at the end of races. Brad has the right mentality to not worry about a little beating and banging and that is how you win at Bristol.

Tony Stewart: Tony has one win at this track and has qualified well the last month of the season. I think this team is getting closer to having better finishes and he should do well once again this weekend. He finished sixth here in the spring race and that was when this team was really struggling. He is a good pick this weekend if you need to make a move in your league.

Jimmie Johnson: After having a real rough time at Michigan last weekend, this team will be happy to get to Bristol. Jimmie finished second here in the spring race this year and fourth in the fall race last season. I think this team is going to get into Chase mode now and they are going to try and win another race before the Chase starts. Testing time is over for the Chase teams now as they get geared up to try and win a championship.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has struggled a bit at Bristol lately with only two top ten finishes in his last ten starts here. However, the way this team has run most of the year, I think they will have a good handling car this weekend and will have a shot at the win if they can stay clean on pit road and not get caught up in an accident early in the race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin sat on the pole for this race last season and has led over seven-hundred laps at this track. After another second place finish at Michigan last week this team is eager to get back into victory lane as we get closer to the start of the Chase. Kevin should have a good handling car once again this weekend and qualifying is very important here so that the teams can select a good pit stall.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kyle Busch
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Tony Stewart
  • Kyle Larson
  • Kurt Busch

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Justin Allgaier
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MICHIGAN, PURE MICHIGAN 400

For the second week in a row, the winner of the race came down to a fuel strategy paying off in the last laps. NASCAR continues the summer series in the north this week as they return to Michigan International Speedway. This track is one of the fastest in the series, and the ability to find speed will be critical in determining the winner. The June race was filled with rain delays and cautions, and I hope this week’s race is easier to watch than the earlier installment.

From a NASCAR Fantasy Live perspective, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three best drivers and fill in the remaining roster spots with the best budget option available.

With the exception of a blown engine at Indianapolis, Kevin Harvick has consistently rewarded fantasy owners who have started him. He was a turn away from victory last week at Watkins Glen. Harvick led the most laps at the June race at Michigan before a botched tire from a pit stop shot him to a 29th place finish. Over the last five races at Michigan, Harvick has an average finish position of 7.4 and 91% of his laps have been in the top-15. Four of his last five races at Michigan have resulted in a top-5 finish. He has led the second-most laps and has the most fast laps of any driver in the series over this stretch. In 2015, Harvick has 19 top-10 finishes and the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kevin Harvick should be an easy choice to start your roster this week.

Joey Logano is coming off an impressive weekend at Watkins Glen and has enjoyed a streak of top-5 finishes. He finished in 5th place at the track earlier this year. Over his last five races at Michigan, Logano has finished in the top-10 all five times and has an average finish position of 5.4. His 194 laps led are the most in the series. In 2015, Logano has enjoyed 13 top-5 finishes and is third in laps led. Your lineup should have Joey Logano as one of its drivers.

Along with Logano, his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski is also a recommended choice for the second installment in MIchigan. Keselowski has a series-best 96% of his laps in the top-15 over the last five Michigan races. He finished in 6th place earlier this season. In 2015, Keselowski has finished in the top-10 13 times. The only drawback with Keselowski is that he has not led many laps at Michigan, and you may not enjoy many laps from this category.

With the first three spots taking up a significant amount of my team budget, the final two spots will be designated to budget drivers. Cole Whitt finished 32nd earlier this season at the track. In 2015, he has an average finish position of 28.4 including a top-20 finish. Michael Annett has two top-20 finishes in 2015 along with a 27th place average. Both of these drivers should provide enough value to warrant roster spots.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the best lineups each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Michigan races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. The end result is a number to predict which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Kurt Busch won the June race. Although he is off my lineup, we will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KURT BUSCH AT MICHIGAN

  • Laps Led last five Michigan races: 89 equals 8.9 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps last five Michigan races: 46 equals 4.6 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 6.2 equals (-6.2) Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average finish position: 16.6 equals 27.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 34.7
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Number: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 34.7 divided by $27.75 equals 1.25 points per race

Below you will find the points per dollar for each driver at the track. For rookie drivers with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers for all their races to give you an idea of their value. Recommended drivers are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Joey Logano 2.39
  • Kevin Harvick 2.11
  • Brad Keselowski 1.57
  • Jeff Gordon 1.52
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.33
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Kurt Busch 1.25
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.18
  • Matt Kenseth 1.14
  • Denny Hamlin 0.88
  • Kyle Busch (-0.20)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.10
  • Paul Menard 1.88
  • Ryan Newman 1.67
  • Carl Edwards 1.49
  • Kasey Kahne 1.33
  • Aric Almirola 0.77
  • Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.21
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.20
  • Tony Stewart 2.18

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 2.75
  • Casey Mears 2.44
  • Cole Whitt 2.37
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.29
  • Trevor Bayne 1.84
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.54
  • David Ragan 1.35
  • Justin Allgaier 1.07
  • Ryan Blaney 0.15

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 4.55
  • Timmy Hill 4.00
  • Michael Annett 3.18
  • Alex Kennedy 3.09
  • JJ Yeley 2.42
  • Landon Cassill 2.06
  • Josh Wise 1.94
  • Brett Moffitt 1.70
  • Jeb Burton 1.68
  • David Gilliland 1.41
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.29
  • Alex Bowman 0.81