For the second week in a row, the winner of the race came down to a fuel strategy paying off in the last laps. NASCAR continues the summer series in the north this week as they return to Michigan International Speedway. This track is one of the fastest in the series, and the ability to find speed will be critical in determining the winner. The June race was filled with rain delays and cautions, and I hope this week’s race is easier to watch than the earlier installment.
From a NASCAR Fantasy Live perspective, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three best drivers and fill in the remaining roster spots with the best budget option available.
With the exception of a blown engine at Indianapolis, Kevin Harvick has consistently rewarded fantasy owners who have started him. He was a turn away from victory last week at Watkins Glen. Harvick led the most laps at the June race at Michigan before a botched tire from a pit stop shot him to a 29th place finish. Over the last five races at Michigan, Harvick has an average finish position of 7.4 and 91% of his laps have been in the top-15. Four of his last five races at Michigan have resulted in a top-5 finish. He has led the second-most laps and has the most fast laps of any driver in the series over this stretch. In 2015, Harvick has 19 top-10 finishes and the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kevin Harvick should be an easy choice to start your roster this week.
Joey Logano is coming off an impressive weekend at Watkins Glen and has enjoyed a streak of top-5 finishes. He finished in 5th place at the track earlier this year. Over his last five races at Michigan, Logano has finished in the top-10 all five times and has an average finish position of 5.4. His 194 laps led are the most in the series. In 2015, Logano has enjoyed 13 top-5 finishes and is third in laps led. Your lineup should have Joey Logano as one of its drivers.
Along with Logano, his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski is also a recommended choice for the second installment in MIchigan. Keselowski has a series-best 96% of his laps in the top-15 over the last five Michigan races. He finished in 6th place earlier this season. In 2015, Keselowski has finished in the top-10 13 times. The only drawback with Keselowski is that he has not led many laps at Michigan, and you may not enjoy many laps from this category.
With the first three spots taking up a significant amount of my team budget, the final two spots will be designated to budget drivers. Cole Whitt finished 32nd earlier this season at the track. In 2015, he has an average finish position of 28.4 including a top-20 finish. Michael Annett has two top-20 finishes in 2015 along with a 27th place average. Both of these drivers should provide enough value to warrant roster spots.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the best lineups each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Michigan races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. The end result is a number to predict which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Kurt Busch won the June race. Although he is off my lineup, we will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.
KURT BUSCH AT MICHIGAN
- Laps Led last five Michigan races: 89 equals 8.9 Fantasy Live points per race
- Fast laps last five Michigan races: 46 equals 4.6 Fantasy Live points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative 6.2 equals (-6.2) Fantasy Live points per race
- Average finish position: 16.6 equals 27.4 Fantasy Live points per race
- Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 34.7
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Number: $27.75
- Fantasy points per dollar: 34.7 divided by $27.75 equals 1.25 points per race
Below you will find the points per dollar for each driver at the track. For rookie drivers with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers for all their races to give you an idea of their value. Recommended drivers are in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Joey Logano 2.39
- Kevin Harvick 2.11
- Brad Keselowski 1.57
- Jeff Gordon 1.52
- Jimmie Johnson 1.33
- Jamie McMurray 1.30
- Kurt Busch 1.25
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.18
- Matt Kenseth 1.14
- Denny Hamlin 0.88
- Kyle Busch (-0.20)
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Clint Bowyer 2.10
- Paul Menard 1.88
- Ryan Newman 1.67
- Carl Edwards 1.49
- Kasey Kahne 1.33
- Aric Almirola 0.77
- Kyle Larson 0.75
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Greg Biffle 2.21
- AJ Allmendinger 2.20
- Tony Stewart 2.18
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Danica Patrick 2.75
- Casey Mears 2.44
- Cole Whitt 2.37
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.29
- Trevor Bayne 1.84
- Sam Hornish Jr. 1.54
- David Ragan 1.35
- Justin Allgaier 1.07
- Ryan Blaney 0.15
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Reed Sorenson 4.55
- Timmy Hill 4.00
- Michael Annett 3.18
- Alex Kennedy 3.09
- JJ Yeley 2.42
- Landon Cassill 2.06
- Josh Wise 1.94
- Brett Moffitt 1.70
- Jeb Burton 1.68
- David Gilliland 1.41
- Matt DiBenedetto 1.29
- Alex Bowman 0.81
2 replies on “NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MICHIGAN, PURE MICHIGAN 400”
Harvick lagano Larson Dillon Annette
Come on boyz 🙈
0% chance of rain in Brooklyn, MI this week. This should be more exciting than the June race.