Author: Jeff Gutowski

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Chicagoland Speedway, MyAFibStory.com 400

Jimmie Johnson's #48 team pit stop at Chicagoland Speedway

The field for the Chase is set with the Challenger round beginning next week at Chicagoland Speedway. Brad Keselowski leads the pack by virtue of his four wins this season after last weekend’s victory at Richmond. A race that Brad dominated, leading 383 of the 400 laps. Each driver is given three bonus points for each win they acquired during the first twenty-six races this season as they enter the Chase.

The rules of the new Chase format are pretty simple. The Chase is separated into four stages. The Challenger round, the Contender round, the Eliminator round, and the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship round. The first three stages are each three races long, while the last race of the season will determine this year’s champion. Win and you automatically move on to the next round, the four drivers with the lowest point totals and no wins will be eliminated. An accident, mechanical failure, or mistake on pit road by driver, crew-chief, or pit crew member could eliminate a driver.

MYAFIBSTORY.COM 400

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is my pick to win the championship this season and I think he starts out the Chase with his fourth victory of the season and automatically qualifies for the next round of the Chase. He has two wins at Chicagoland and has been very fast all season. I think he runs as well as he did at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but avoids the disaster he found at the end of that race.

Jeff Gordon: I think Jeff is the next best contender of the Chase field. Jeff has been very consistent on all types of tracks this season and won three races so far. He also has a win at Chicagoland Speedway and has shown a lot of speed on this type of track. Jeff has won four championships in his career, but none of those have come under the Chase format.

Joey Logano: Both Joey and Brad Keselowski have had great seasons. I believe Joey has been better than Brad on the intermediate tracks though and I think he will have another great car once again this weekend. This team has won three races already this season and they have the confidence that they can compete for the championship this year.

Brad Keselowski: Brad leads the series in victories, so that gives him a three point lead heading into the Chase. This team has had a fast car all season and should easily make it into the second round as long as they don’t have a disaster on the track. They haven’t really had many tire issues or engine issues all year and that eliminates that issue from a drivers mind.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget about the six time champion as we head into the Chase. This team hasn’t been on the top of their game much of the season, but they know how to win championships. They have run a little better over the past five or six races and just need to find a little more to get back to their winning ways. While Jimmie has never won a race at Chicagoland, he has finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here. That alone gives them confidence heading to this track this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is currently in the final spot of the Chase by virtue of the tiebreaker of how many top five finishes he has had on the season. This means virtually nothing as the Chase starts and I think Ryan has the mindset not to worry about things like that anyway. Ryan has won a race at this track and has finished in the top ten in eight of his twelve starts here. This is a sleeper team to watch right now.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won a race here and has run very well on the intermediate tracks all season. They need to make one more adjustment that will help them to win one of these races seeing there are so many of them in the Chase. I think this team has a chance at winning a championship this season, but I think they are going to have to win at least one more race to do it.

Tony Stewart: Tony leads all drivers with three wins at this track. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here and only Jimmie Johnson has lead more laps at Chicagoland than Tony over their careers. Tony is my dark horse to win this race and get his team on the right track for next season.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won the race at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and that victory propelled him into the Chase. The track at Chicago is very similar to the Atlanta track, so this team should come with a good setup already under their car. They are going to need to win races to stay in contention because they haven’t been consistent enough to keep making it through the elimination rounds without wins.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won the first two races of the Chase last season including the race at Chicago. This is the closest track to Matt’s hometown of Cambridge, Wisconsin and he would love to get another victory to move himself into the next round and make his local fans very happy. I think this team is consistent enough and can start winning races during the Chase to be serious contenders for the championship.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Ryan Newman
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Carl Edwards

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Richmond International Raceway, Federated Auto Parts 400

Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch at Richmond

And then there was one! Congratulation to Kasey Kahne on winning his first race of the season and qualifying for the Chase. Fourteen of the Chase spots have been locked in, but two are still open. Right now Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle sit in those spots with one to go. Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson are close enough in points to overtake either of those drivers by points, but we could still get another new winner on the season at Richmond which will eliminate another spot unless the driver is Matt Kenseth. Ryan has the best chance of making the Chase on points as of now, with a nineteen point lead on Greg, forty-two over Bowyer, and forty-three over Larson. One of these four drivers will get in on points no matter who wins the race and two of them can make it with a repeat winner or a Kenseth win. It looks like it will be another no holds barred race at Richmond this Saturday night.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Richmond International Raceway is a 3/4-mile D-shaped oval asphalt racetrack that is considered quite flat by NASCAR standards. Jeff Gordon set a track record here last year with a qualifying lap of 130.599 mph and I think that record might fall this weekend. This could be one of the most exciting races of the season, so try not to miss it.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this week at Richmond. He has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in well over half of his starts at this track. This team has been solid all season and would like to get that extra bonus point for wins heading into the Chase next week. Jeff lead the most laps in the spring race here on his way to a second place finish, which I think he will improve on this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: This is Brad’s type of track to race on. He loves the short, flat tracks and would like to build some momentum heading into the Chase. He has lead a lot of laps in the last two races at this track, so I think he has a good idea on how to make it around here quickly. If he can stay out of trouble early he should be in contention at the end of the race.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won four races at this track, has finished in the top five in thirteen of his nineteen starts, and finished third this spring here. He is by far the most consistent driver at this track and I would have picked him for the win, but lately he has been way too hot headed on the track. He needs to control his emotions if he really wants to have a chance at winning a championship. He is a great pick if you are trying to make a move in your fantasy league.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has three career wins at Richmond and dominated the race at Atlanta last weekend until he was involved in a crash on a green/white/checker restart at the end of the race. This team has brought a car capable of winning every week this season and Kevin is my odds on favorite to win the championship this season. He has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty-seven starts here and lead twenty-three laps in the spring race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has also won three races at this track with the last of those coming back in 2006. He hasn’t been real consistent here throughout his career, but the way he has run this season, we can throw out what he was like in the past. This team has a legitimate shot at winning the title this season and another win this weekend would make the other Chase drivers see what this team is capable of.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has two career wins here and looked very good at Atlanta last weekend. We don’t really know if the teams that qualified for the Chase early in the year were doing some experimenting once they were in, or if they just weren’t on the same page. We are going to find out starting this weekend if this team might have been laying in the weeds and are now ready to try and win a championship. Denny has always been good on the flat tracks and we will see if they are going to be a serious contender this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has won two races at Richmond during his career and a win this weekend is his best shot a making the Chase. This team knows that and is going to come with an all or nothing attitude. They will take every chance they can as the race progresses to put themselves in a position to win this race and take one of the last two spots in the Chase. Don’t count him out yet.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three career wins at this track and they all came during the 2007 and 2008 seasons. This team is another team that had struggled after winning three races in a short stretch earlier this season. Once again, were they doing some testing after that, or did they just struggle to find handling and speed? They have run much better this past month and I think they will be fine once the Chase starts.

Carl Edwards: Carl won this race last season and this team has looked better lately. They seem to have found some speed on the intermediate tracks and have been good on the short tracks all year. I think they have a good shot at winning the race this weekend and grabbing some momentum as the Chase looms. Even though this is Carl’s last season at Roush/Fenway Racing, I think they will do everything in their power to make Carl a contender.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is locked into the Chase, but is still looking for his first win of the season. He would like nothing better than to get it this weekend just so he can get a bonus point at the start of the Chase. He has never won a race at Richmond, but has finished in the top seven here in each of the last four races. They have looked very good over the past month and just need to make that one last correct adjustment late in the race and have the cautions fall right for them to get their first win on the season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Ryan Newman
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Atlanta Motor Speedway, Oral-B USA 500

NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Atlanta Juan Pablo Montoya and Carl Edwards

There are only two races left before the start of the Chase this season and the last two spots still aren’t decided yet. We have twelve spots filled by drivers with wins this season and Matt Kenseth has to basically start the next two races and not finish in last place to secure his spot. We could get two new winners in the next couple of races and that would eliminate two spots on points if it happens. All I know is that it could be two wild weeks at the track.

ORAL-B USA 500

This week the series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the running of the Oral-B USA 500. Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval track, which makes it similar to most other intermediate tracks on the circuit. I predict that a new qualifying record will be set once again this weekend if the weather cooperates. The race will be held on Sunday evening as it is Labor Day weekend. Tires and engines will be tested to their limits in this 500-mile race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the first race he ever ran in the Sprint Cup series at this track back in 2001, when he took over for the late Dale Earnhardt. That is the only race he has run at this track, but the way he has run every week, I look for him to qualify and run well here once again this weekend. He is my pick to win his third race of the season and move into a tie with five other drivers for most wins on the year.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is a five-time winner at Atlanta and after his win at Michigan a couple of weeks ago has shown that he is a serious contender at all types of tracks this year. Jeff has finished in the top ten in twenty-six of his forty starts at this track, and that tells me he is very consistent here. You will want him on your fantasy team this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has had a disappointing finish last week at Bristol after getting caught up in an accident that was no fault of his own. This team has been bringing it every week and on all types of tracks this season and this weekend will be no different. I think that Dale and Steve Latarte are on the same page and Steve makes the right adjustments during the race to fit Dale’s style of driving. They can win the championship this year.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has been improving over the past few weeks and this will be a huge test for this team. This week will let them know if they have their setup correct so they don’t blow tires. That issue needs to be taken care of before the start of the Chase if they want to repeat as champions. Jimmie has three wins here and has finished in the top ten in more than half of his starts here also.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has two career wins at Atlanta and his best chance of making the Chase is to pick up a win in the next two weeks. Kasey runs well at this track and he always seems to run well at night, so both factors are in his favor this weekend. All of the Hendrick teams run well at this track on a consistent basis so you can’t really go wrong with using as many of them as you can in your league this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won three races at this track and has finished in the top five in eight of his sixteen starts here. The real problem here is that the Roush/Fenway teams have not had the speed on this type of track for much of the season. Carl wound up two laps down at Michigan a couple of weeks ago partly due to speed and the other part pit road penalties.

Joey Logano: Joey finished second in this race last year and the way the Penske teams have shown speed on this type of track this season, he is another good pick for this weekend. Even though the Penske teams run the same motors as the Roush/Fenway teams they have found something aerodynamically that makes them contenders on these tracks. I look for both of the Penske drivers to qualify towards the front of the field and run there for much of the race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the other Penske driver and will have a fast car himself once again this weekend. Brad was a little disappointed at Michigan a couple of weeks ago, because he really wanted to win that race in his home state. He can change that disappointment into another celebration with his fourth win of the season this weekend in Atlanta.

Matt Kenseth: Although Matt has never won a race at Atlanta and hasn’t won a race yet this season, this team will be in the Chase and can go on a roll at any time. Matt has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his twenty-five starts and would love to pick up his first win of the year before the Chase starts. This team looked good at Bristol last weekend and just needs to make the right adjustments during the races on the intermediate tracks.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has quietly been running very well over the past month at all types of tracks. This team will be dangerous once the Chase starts, because I think they are still experimenting a little bit and will be even better once the Chase starts. They might just pull out all of the stops over the next two weeks to see what they really have and it could be enough to win a couple of more races this season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Carl Edwards

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Bristol Motor Speedway, Irwin Tools Night Race

Matt Kenseth NASCAR Bristol Irwin Tools Night Race

Jeff Gordon won his third race of the season at Michigan last week and looks like a strong contender for this year’s championship. The win ties him with Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Brad Keselowski for most wins on the season with only three races left until the Chase starts. Kyle Larson dropped out of the last Chase spot after a disappointing last place finish and now Greg Biffle and Kasey Kahne are fighting for the last Chase spot to go by points. If we get another different winner in the next three races, that spot will vanish.

IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE

This week the series heads back to Bristol Motor Speedway for the running of the Irwin Tools Night Race. This Saturday night race is one of my favorites of the year and always has a lot of excitement in it. This is also a track where we could see the thirteenth different winner on the season.

Bristol is a slightly longer than half-mile high banked track that the drivers can get around in about fifteen seconds. Qualifying is important at this track because you want to get a good pit stall. The pits are located all the way around the track and your pit stall location could be the difference between winning and losing this race.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win his fourth race of the season this week. Jeff has five career wins at this track and the way he has been running lately, it is hard to pick against him. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now and that is exactly where you want to be as we close in on the Chase. Every bonus point will come in handy once the Chase starts also.

Kyle Busch: Kyle also has five career wins at Bristol and would like to come away with a great finish this week after hitting the wall very early in the race at Michigan last week which lead to a dismal finish for him. Kyle has the mentality to win at Bristol where trading paint is the name of the game. If they can start towards the front of the field he will have a great shot at winning this race.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is another driver with five wins at this track and I think that with his new team he should have a car that is good enough for him to get back to victory lane once again this season. Look for Kurt to be in contention at the end of this race if they can stay out of trouble early in the race. Small mistakes are huge at this track because you can find yourself down multiple laps in a hurry if you have a penalty on pit road.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won twice here in only nine starts and he loves this type of racing where you can trade a little paint if you need to move someone out of your way as you work your way through traffic. If you go to Bristol with this mind set you will be successful more often than not. Brad never seems to get too upset when someone bumps him when they are racing hard and knows that he can do the same.

Carl Edwards: Carl won the race here in March and this is the type of track that this team has been good at this season. They have really struggled on the intermediate tracks, but have been very good on the short tracks. Carl could very well pick up his third short track win of the season and gain some valuable bonus points for the Chase. However, if they want to have a real shot at winning the championship this year they will have to correct the problems they have on those intermediate tracks.

Greg Biffle: Greg has never won a race at Bristol in the Sprint Cup series, but he has had some very good cars and very bad luck during the races here. Instead of worrying if he can make the Chase on points he would just love to get the win here this weekend. If this team can stay close to the front and have a flawless pit stop late in the race they should have a good chance of getting that win.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race last year which gave him three career victories at this track. Matt should make the Chase on points without a win, but they would like to get that win for the bonus point. A win would also give this team some confidence as we near the Chase. You are going to have to win races during the Chase to win the championship and those who have wins going in know that they can finish races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has one win at Bristol and has finished in the top ten in almost half of his starts here. This team looks good every week on all types of tracks. They will have a great chance at winning the championship the way they are going about business this season and I think they will win at least one more race this season.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has struggled for the past couple of months with mechanical problems that has taken them out of races. I think this is the type of track that this team will be able to turn their fortunes around at this weekend. I don’t think we will see a lot of tire issues this weekend which is something that has really plagued this team lately.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one career win at Bristol, but he has only one top ten finish here in his last eleven starts. However, the way this team has brought a fast car to the track every week this season, I think they will be a contender once again this weekend. All they need is for all the cautions to fall right for them just like every other team.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Marcos Ambrose

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Jeff Burton (tentative)
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Kurt Busch
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Marcos Ambrose

Stay Away From: Brian Vickers

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Michigan International Speedway, Pure Michigan 400

AJ Allmendinger is a virtual lock to make the Chase by virtue of his win at Watkins Glen this past weekend. This is AJ’s first win in the Sprint Cup series and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Once again the finish at Watkins Glen was exciting, with Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose, and Kurt Busch racing for the win after a restart with only two laps remaining in the race.

There are now twelve different winners so far this season and it looks like all of them should be in the top thirty in points after the next four races. That leaves only four spots open right now that will go to drivers by points. Right now Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Larson hold those final four spots, but that could easily change over the next four weeks with new winners, or even a poor finish in a race that could drop these drivers out of the Chase and put another driver into the final spot.

PURE MICHIGAN 400

This week the series heads back to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Pure Michigan 400. MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped oval track and it is very fast after being repaved. How much faster is it now? Kevin Harvick set a new track qualifying record in June at over 204.5 m.p.h. which is over 10 m.p.h. faster than the old track record. At these speeds, engines and tires are going to be at a premium this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win once again this weekend because he has been fast all season and he is due for another win. He has finished second in the last three races here and should be able to pick up that final position this weekend. I see this team coming with a very similar setup to what they had in June and they haven’t been having any mechanical issues lately. I think they have the correct setup to reduce tire wear while still be fast.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won two races at this track and always seems to have a great car here. However, this season the Joe Gibbs Racing teams haven’t had the best cars and probably need to work on their aerodynamics more to be really competitive with the Hendrick and Penske teams right now. Matt should make the Chase no matter if he has a win or not because of his point standing, but I’m sure he would love to win a race and gain some valuable bonus points heading into the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie won the race here in June, but he has had a lot of issues over the past month or so. This team needs to figure out their tire issues before the Chase starts if they want to repeat as champions once again. With the speeds these cars will be running this weekend, there is going to be a lot of strain on the tires in the corners and a blown tire will end your day quickly.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has always been good at Michigan finishing in the top ten in well over half of the races he has run here. That includes two wins, but he hasn’t won a race here since 2001. He did lead a bunch of laps here in June and came away with a sixth place finish in that race. This team has been consistent all year and that is why they are in first place in the standings right now.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: This is the type of track that Dale should run very well at. He knows how to get off the corners and get back into the gas to carry that speed down the straightaways and that is the name of the game at Michigan. The way this team has run all year they have a great shot at winning another race this weekend. They are a legitimate title contender right now.

Joey Logano: Joey has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts here. The Penske cars have been very fast all season at this type of track and this weekend should be no different. I look for Joey to qualify in the top five and have a car that is capable of winning this race. I think if they stay away from mechanical issues and penalties on pit road, they will have a shot at the end of this race.

Kasey Kahne: There are a couple of races before the Chase that this team has a good chance of winning and making it into the Chase. This is one of those races. Kasey has won a race here before and has finished in the top ten in almost half of his starts at this track. They have a chance to make the Chase by points, but I know they would rather win a race and take that chance out of the equation. Win and your in.

Greg Biffle: Greg has won four races at this track, but this season the Roush/Fenway cars have really struggled to find the speed on the intermediate tracks. Until they figure out why they can’t get the speed out of their cars that the competition is getting, I would stay away from these drivers on this type of track. Greg is only five points from the last Chase spot at this time, but would like to get a win and lock himself in.

Carl Edwards: Carl is already locked in the Chase, but they also have a Roush/Fenway car. They will not be able to win a championship this season unless they can find the speed on these tracks. The competition is too much better than they are right now and a poor finish in the Chase can spell doom for any driver with a three race knockout round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the other Penske driver that should have a fast car once again this weekend. They are all ready locked into the Chase and would just like to get a few more bonus points heading into the Chase. I look for Brad to qualify in the top five along with Joey Logano and if they can stay clean throughout the race, they should have a great shot at the end to visit victory lane.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Aric Almirola

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Jeff Burton
  • Kyle Larson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle