Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 SONOMA, TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350

In the sixteenth race of the NASCAR season, we finally get to enjoy a road course after an off-week. Based on the nature of a road courses, there are drivers who specialize and are usually consistent in Sonoma. One of the challenges is that there are not many laps in the race and that passing is a challenge.

From a Fantasy Live perspective, the best strategy is to aim for points from the average finish position. As far as getting the best value out of your Fantasy Live dollar, you still want to front-load your lineup. There should be some budget options who are expected to overachieve this week. There is a lower risk to try alternate strategies this week, but the reward will also be lower than the typical race.

While I typically pick three top drivers and fill out my roster with budget choices, the strategy is slightly different in Sonoma. I will pick two top drivers, two budget drivers, and then fill out my roster with the best budget option available. A pair of Hendricks teammates will be at the top of my roster. Jimmie Jonson has spent 93% of his laps over the last five Sonoma races in the top-15 and has an average finish position of 5.8 during this time span. 56 laps led over five races would keep a driver off my roster on most tracks, but this is the fourth-best in the series at Sonoma. Due to gaining points from start-to-finish differential, Johnson has the most Fantasy Live points per race of any driver since 2010. With seven top-10 finishes over his last 10 races, Johnson is likely to earn finish position points for my team this week.

Johnson’s teammate, Jeff Gordon, has an even more impressive history at the track. While only leading twenty laps in the last five races at the track, Gordon has an third place average finish position. 80% of his laps have been run in the top-15 during this time span, good for third-best in the series. Since 2005, Gordon has six top-5 finishes and nine top-10 finishes. Jeff Gordon has a high probability for success this week.

The third selection for my roster is a budget option who has quietly provided value on Fantasy Live rosters all season. David Gilliland comes at a lower price tag and should outperform his value this week. While I am not expecting a top-5 finish out of the #38 car, Gilliland has averaged a 20th place finish over the past five races at the track. With a +7 start-to-finish differential, Gilliland has consistently worked his way through the field. Since 2005, Gilliland has three top-20 finishes and an average finish position of 21.4. If he averages anywhere around this mark, he will reward owners with two Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar.

Casey Mears has likely stayed off of most fantasy rosters this season, but this is a week where one can take a risk on the #13 car. His salary cap figure is relatively low. Like Gilliland, Mears average finish position should be enough to provide value for your roster. Since 2010, Mears has averaged a 19th place finish. He has six top-20 finishes over his last nine Sonoma races. I am expecting Mears to earn about two Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar. At Sonoma, this is a valuable number.

For the fifth roster spot, my goal is to fill the spot with the best driver available. Three middle-tier drivers were tempting for the last spot. Austin Dillon finished 17th at Sonoma last year, and Tony Stewart has six top-10 finishes in his last 10 Sonoma races. Due to Dillon’s limited history and Stewart’s recent history, I went in another direction for the final spot. AJ Allmendinger has a lower average finish position at Sonoma, but he has decent overall numbers at the track. He has led 35 laps over the last five Sonoma races and has an average running position around 15th place. Allmendinger has two top-10 finishes in six races and has the highest upside of the middle-tier drivers.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to force us to use strategy in our roster selections, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Sonoma races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar and to reveal budget options. Kurt Busch is a top-end driver at Sonoma and should be considered for your roster. Regrettably, I did not have the room on my roster for him. As a consolation prize, we will use his Fantasy Live numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KURT BUSCH AT SONOMA

  • Average finish position last five Sonoma Races: 10.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 3.6 equals (-3.6) points per race
  • Laps led: 93 equals 9.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned: 43.8
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: 27
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 43.8 divided by 27 equals 1.62 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in the series. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no track history, we will use the 2015 numbers to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. I hope you get the chance to watch one of the more exciting races of the NASCAR season and that you find success on your rosters. As always, feel free to post your lineup in the comment field.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.95
  • Jeff Gordon 1.94
  • Kurt Busch 1.62
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.08
  • Jamie McMurray 0.99
  • Joey Logano 0.97
  • Brad Keselowski 0.93
  • Matt Kenseth 0.61
  • Kyle Busch 0.42
  • Denny Hamlin (-0.09)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.11
  • Edwards 1.72
  • Kasey Kahne 1.61
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.33
  • Aric Almirola 1.32
  • Paul Menard 1.27
  • Ryan Newman 1.00
  • Kyle Larson (-0.35)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.25
  • Greg Biffle 1.73
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.47
  • Tony Stewart 1.38
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.76

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.81
  • Boris Said 2.40
  • Cole Whitt 2.15
  • Casey Mears 2.08
  • David Ragan 1.44
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.38
  • Danica Patrick 1.32
  • Justin Allgaier 1.30

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 4.33
  • Alex Bowman 3.20
  • Michael McDowell 3.00
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.88*
  • JJ Yeley 2.85
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Josh Wise 1.92
  • Jeb Burton 1.89*
  • Landon Cassill 1.15
  • Alex Kennedy 0.45
  • Justin Mars 0.00

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MICHIGAN, QUICKEN LOANS 400

I was glad to see Martin Truex Jr. and the #78 team pickup a win in the Pocono race last weekend, although this did not benefit me in Fantasy Live.

Like Pocono, there is not a driver who stands out in laps led over the last five races in Michigan. Several of the top drivers, however, have finished at the top of the standings consistently. I think the best strategy this week is to front-load your lineup with three of the top drivers and find value selections with the remaining two spots. This is not a necessary strategy, and Michigan is a opportunity for owners behind in the standings looking for an alternate lineup to gain back points. Michigan is a lower risk to swing for the fences than other tracks in the series because many drivers have seen success.

With an average finish position of 4.8 over the last five Michigan races, Kevin Harvick should be an easy choice for your lineup. Over the same time span, the best driver in the series in 2015 has the most Fantasy Live points per race. He also has a respectable 81% of his laps running in the top-15 and the best lap-to-lap performance data in the series. Over the long-term, Harvick has enjoyed nine top-10 finishes and 17 top-20 finishes. Based on the combination of 2015 success and historical success at MIS, Harvick has a high probability for success this week.

The next two picks for my lineups are Penske teammates who perform favorably in Michigan. Brad Keselowski is one of the most consistent drivers at Michigan. While he does not lead many laps, he is consistently running near the front of the field. Over the last five races at Michigan, Keselowski has spent a series-best 96% of his laps running in the top-15. Because he only has 40 laps led, he is fifth in the series in Fantasy Live points per race. His long-term numbers are not impressive, but I think the #2 car will find enough speed to stay near the top this week.

Keselowski’s teammate, Joey Logano, has led the most laps of any driver in the last five Michigan races. With 80% of his races in the top-15 and an average finish position of 10.6, you can expect the #22 car to run near the front. Like Keselowski, Logano does not have long-term consistency at the track, but has found speed since switching over the Penske. There are a couple of more cost-effective options like Greg Biffle or Paul Menard to consider, but the price difference was not worth taking the best drivers with the top-3 spots on my roster. With his current success, I will keep on eye on Truex in qualifying and practice.

The drawback to front-loading my lineup is that there is very little salary cap room to work with for the final two spots. Cole Whitt has a 26th place average finish position in two Michigan races. He has worked his way through the field, and his +13 start-to-finish differential provides additional value. I’m not thrilled about the options for the fifth roster spot. With a 30th place average, I will tentatively go with Michael Annett. I will likely save this spot for a driver who qualifies near the back of the field and go for start-to-finish differential. Brendan Gaughan can provide value with only a $4.75 cap hit if he can make the field.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position and start-to-finish differential. Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to manage the quality of drivers who find our rosters. Our formula calculate the amount of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Michigan races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the most value. Greg Biffle is a top five driver at Michigan, but his inconsistency in 2015 scared me away from adding him to my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Michigan data over the last five Michigan races to further illustrate the formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT MICHIGAN

  • Average finish position last five Michigan races: 8.2 equals 35.8 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.2 equals 7.2 points per race
  • Fast laps: 71 equals 7.1 points per race
  • Laps led: 102 equals 10.2 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 60.3
  • Salary cap figure: $19.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 60.3 divided by 19.75 = 3.05 points per Fantasy Live Dollar

Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in Michigan. This week’s recommended picks are highlighted in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for rookie drivers with no track history. Good luck navigating through another week of your NASCAR lineup and feel free to discuss your lineup decisions in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 2.10
  • Joey Logano 2.03
  • Brad Keselowski 1.75
  • Jeff Gordon 1.36
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.29
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.25
  • Jamie McMurray 1.16
  • Denny Hamlin 0.96
  • Matt Kenseth 0.88
  • Kurt Busch 0.85
  • Kyle Busch 0.36

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.20
  • Paul Menard 1.92
  • Ryan Newman 1.72
  • Kasey Kahne 1.53
  • Carl Edwards 1.38
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.06
  • Aric Almirola 0.93
  • Kyle Larson 0.35

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 3.05
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.09
  • Tony Stewart 1.79
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.52
  • Austin Dillon 1.36
  • Ryan Blaney 0.07*

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 3.08
  • Cole Whitt 2.93
  • Danica Patrick 2.54
  • David Gilliland 2.12
  • David Ragan 1.99
  • Casey Mears 1.94
  • Trevor Bayne 1.28
  • Justin Allgaier 0.29

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Brandan Gaughan 3.58
  • Ty Dillon 3.27*
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
  • Michael Annett 3.17
  • Brett Moffitt 2.67*
  • JJ Yeley 2.61*
  • Mike Bliss 2.43*
  • JJ Yeley 2.23
  • Josh Wise 2.08*
  • Landon Cassill 2.02
  • Alex Bowman 1.93
  • Jeb Burton 1.80*
  • Josh Wise 1.38
  • Brett Moffitt 1.27
  • Mike Bliss 0.87

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 POCONO, AXALTA WE PAINT WINNERS 400

Pocono Raceway is a challenging track to forecast from a Fantasy Live perspective. Unlike Dover last week, there is no driver who dominates the race. The laps led and fast laps numbers are spread out. While I would still recommend front-loading your lineup, it is not as necessary to try this strategy. I would keep an eye on qualifying and try to benefit from start-to-finish differential if possible. While not wildly unpredictable like a restrictor plate track, Pocono offers an opportunity to take some risks in your lineup if you are behind in the standings.

There are many drivers who have favorable numbers at the track, but nobody who stands out as a must-start driver. My first roster spot will go to a fan favorite who won both races last year in Pocono. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish position of 8.4 over the last five Pocono races. He is one of the best drivers in the series in 2015 and has a high probability for success. While he is second-best in the series with 82% of laps in the top-15 since 2005, Junior has only led 44 laps during this same time span. Historically, he has nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the track. Junior is hard to keep off your roster due to last year’s success at the track, but the upside may not be as high as one would think. Earnhardt Jr. is a good choice for those at the top of the standings, but I would not define him as a must start.

While he does not have the dominant numbers in Pocono, keeping Kevin Harvick out of your lineup is difficult. Harvick has been the best driver in Fantasy Live in total number of points earned and has provided the best value per Fantasy Live dollar of any regular driver this season. Over the last five Pocono races, Harvick has an average finish of 11.6 and only five laps led. He is consistent at the track, but not dominant. He has enjoyed nine top-10 finishes and 19 top-20 finishes in the last 20 races.

The spot for the third driver in my lineup is a toss-up between Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Gordon has the most Fantasy Live points in the series over the last five races. However, Gordon has been underwhelming so far in 2015. Even though his track numbers are slightly worse, Brad Keselowski is my recommendation for your weekly lineup. With 121 laps led over the last five Pocono races, Brad Keselowski has the second-most in the series (Jimmie Johnson with 220). With 75% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span, Keselowski shows enough consistency. His long-term numbers are not extremely impressive, but he does have three top-10 finishes in ten races. I may change this pick after qualifying and will keep a close eye on Keselowski, Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.

Since I decided to front-load my lineup, there is little salary cap room to work with for the final two roster spots. One of the reasons why I decided to front-load my lineup is because there were some budget options I liked for this week. In two Pocono starts last year, Michael Annett over-achieved with a 21st place average. While his team is near the bottom most weeks, he has the potential to provide excellent value. If he matches last year’s production, Annett will average six points per dollar and is well worth the risk. Cole Whitt, with a 25th place average in two races last year, is the other budget driver. Whitt’s 2.95 points per dollar at Pocono is second-best in the series. I will keep an eye on qualifying, but I like these two drivers this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to force us to use strategy with our line-ups. Our formula calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Pocono races. Next, we divide that number by the current Fantasy Live salary cap value to show which drivers are the most likely to provide value. Jeff Gordon missed my lineup despite earning the most Fantasy Live points of any driver over the past five Pocono races. As a consolation prize, we will use Gordon’s numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

JEFF GORDON AT POCONO

  • Average finish position last five Pocono races: 5.8 equals 38.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 8.2 equals 8.2 points per race
  • Laps led: 80 equals 8 points per race
  • Fast laps: 63 laps equals 6.3 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 60.7
  • Fantasy Live salary cap number: $26.75
  • Points per dollar: 60.7 / 26.75 = 2.27 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar figure for each driver in the series. This week’s recommended picks are highlighted in bold. We will use the 2015 for all rookie drivers with no track history. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.27
  • Ryan Newman 2.06
  • Brad Keselowski 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.78
  • Kurt Busch 1.42
  • Jamie McMurray 1.37
  • Kevin Harvick 1.19
  • Joey Logano 1.06
  • Denny Hamlin 0.66
  • Kyle Busch 0.52
  • Matt Kenseth 0.33

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 1.66
  • Kasey Kahne 1.65
  • Kyle Larson 1.54
  • Martin Truex 1.35
  • Aric Almirola 0.72
  • Carl Edwards 0.70
  • Paul Menard 0.38

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.33
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.07
  • Greg Biffle 2.06
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Cole Whitt 2.95
  • Justin Allgaier 2.48
  • David Ragan 2.46
  • Casey Mears 2.00
  • Josh Wise 1.87
  • JJ Yeley 1.57
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.47
  • Landon Cassill 1.12
  • Danica Patrick 0.07

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 6.00
  • Ty Dillon 2.84*
  • Alex Bowman 2.38
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.24*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
  • Jeb Burton 1.33*
  • Travis Kvapil n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DOVER, FEDEX 400

The last time that we had a short track with drivers with consistent histories, I made the mistake of calling the track predictable. All four of my Yahoo drivers for the week proceeded to wreck in the race, and the fantasy gods had their day. Two months later, we have Dover International Speedway, where a few drivers are typically dominant. This time, I will not go as far as to call the track predictable in order to keep luck on my side.

Based on the amount of laps at the short track and the consistency of some drivers, my best suggestion is to front-load your lineup with the top three spots and fill the remaining two spots with the best budget driver possible.

My first choice as a recommended driver has not finished outside the top-20 in the last 20 races at Dover. With 2,581 laps led since 2005 at Dover, Jimmie Johnson is over 1,500 laps higher than the second driver in this categories (Kyle Busch 1,011). Over the last five races at the track, Johnson has led the most laps of any driver and has the most fast laps. During the same time span, he has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15 and an average finish position of 5.0. Unless there is an unforeseen circumstance, Jimmie Johnson is an obvious choice for your lineup this week.

Kevin Harvick is going to continue to stay in my lineup until he cools off. He has provided the most fantasy live points per dollar of any driver in 2015. His Dover numbers are strong enough to continue to have him on your team. Since 2005, Harvick has led the third-most laps of any driver in the series and has a decent average finish position of 11.4. While there are other drivers with better numbers who will be off my roster this week, Harvick has spent 75% of his laps in the top-15. His long-term numbers should not scare you off either. While he has not been a dominant car, he has eight top-10 finishes and 17 top-20 finishes since 2005 at Dover. Keep Harvick in your lineup this week.

There are four drivers with dominant track numbers who are fighting for the third roster spot on my rosters. Two are recent fathers, and one is retiring at the end of the season. With the numbers being close, I am going to leave Kyle Busch off my team. Kyle Busch has the second-most laps led over the last five years and is a consistent driver at the track. With the numbers being close, Kyle Busch has a slightly higher risk associated with his leg injury. Matt Kenseth, with 12 top-5 finishes at Dover since 2005 can also be considered for your roster. Keselowski has been better in 2015 and runs strong at Dover, but Jeff Gordon’s numbers are too tempting to pass up. Early in the week, I will lean towards Jeff Gordon for the third roster spot while keeping a close eye on qualifying.

Gordon has been one of the least valuable drivers for Fantasy Live in 2015. He has not necessarily struggled, but he has not been rewarding fantasy owners even when the track numbers are in his favor. Over the past five races at Dover, Gordon has the best average finish position in the series (5.0). Also, he has spent 97% of his laps running in the top-15. His drawback is that he has only spent 98 of these laps at the front of the lineup. Over the long-term, Gordon has nine top-10 and 17 top-20 finishes since 2005. He has a high probability for success this week.

The drawback for a race where the top drivers are dominant is that finding budget options at the bottom of your roster proves to be more challenging. Cole Whitt has a 28th place average in three races at the track and has provided enough value to be functional at the bottom of your roster. With 3.33 fantasy points per dollar throughout 2015, Matt DiBenedetto has been the most valuable driver with a salary cap figure under $10.00 in 2015. Although he has no track history, he does not need to do a lot to provide value with such a low salary cap hit. I will keep an eye after qualifying and may tweak my lineup based on who is at the back of the field.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, start-to-finish differential, and finish position. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula determines the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Dover races. Next, we divide that number by their salary cap figure to unveil which drivers are expected to provide the most value for your lineup each week. Kyle Busch is a slight risk with his leg injury, but I may regret leaving him off my roster for a safer option. As a consolation prize, we will use his Dover numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT DOVER

  • Laps led last five Dover races: 563 equals 56.3 fantasy live points
  • Fast laps last five Dover races: 187 equals 18.7 fantasy live points
  • Average finish position last five Dover races: 13.6 equals 30.4 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential last five Dover races: Negative 8.4 equals (-8.4) fantasy live points
  • Average number of points last five Dover races: 97
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $25.25
  • Points per Fantasy Dollar: 3.84

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver over the last five Dover races. Recommended drivers are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all drivers with no history in Delaware. Good luck with your lineups as the summer series kicks off.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.14
  • Kyle Busch 3.84
  • Jeff Gordon 2.67
  • Kevin Harvick 2.25
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.00
  • Brad Keselowski 1.92
  • Joey Logano 1.62
  • Matt Kenseth 1.39
  • Kurt Busch 1.33
  • Denny Hamlin 1.32
  • Jamie McMurray 0.69

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.10
  • Kyle Larson 1.49
  • Carl Edwards 1.44
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.43
  • Kasey Kahne 1.37
  • Paul Menard 1.37
  • Aric Almirola 1.37
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.67

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.55
  • Austin Dillon 0.97
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.23

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.00
  • Justin Allgaier 1.77
  • David Ragan 1.69
  • Danica Patrick 1.66
  • Casey Mears 1.60
  • David Gilliland 1.33
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.20

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.33*
  • Brett Moffitt 2.41
  • JJ Yeley 2.09
  • Cole Whitt 1.98
  • Josh Wise 1.35
  • Jeb Burton 1.27*
  • Brian Scott 1.16*
  • Alex Bowman 0.89
  • Michael Annett 0.88
  • Brendan Gaughan 0.71*
  • Landon Cassill 0.60
  • Mike Bliss 0.50
  • Jeff Green: n/a
  • Travis Kvapil: n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHARLOTTE, COCA-COLA 600

After a week off from fantasy racing due to the All-Star race, we stay at Charlotte this weekend for the longest race of the NASCAR season. 600-miles is a battle of attrition to the drivers and teams in NASCAR and can also feel like a battle of attrition to those of us watching with young kids in the house. Difficulties aside, Memorial Day is always an exciting racing weekend. Due to the extra laps, front-loading your lineup is important this week. My suggestion, like most weeks, is to choose your three favorite drivers and fill in the rest of your roster with the best budget options available.

The driver who has the highest probability for success this week is Kevin Harvick. For the 2015 season, Harvick is rewarding us with a series-best 4.87 points per Fantasy Live dollar. He should be considered for your lineup every week. Combined with his 2015 numbers, Harvick also has a series best average finish position of 5.2 over the last five Charlotte races. During the same time span, he has spent an astounding 97% of his laps running in the top-15. Even though he has a commanding salary cap figure, you have to keep starting Kevin Harvick in all fantasy NASCAR formats.

The next driver for my suggested lineup is a high-risk high-reward racer on most weeks. At Charlotte, Kasey Kahne is among the most successful drivers in the series. With a 7.2 average finish position over the past five Charlotte races, Kahne has the second best average finish position in the series. He also has the second-most laps led in the series. With 13 top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the North Carolina track, Kahne is a lower risk than most weeks. His salary cap figure is slightly lower than the other front-runners and should provide a little more flexibility at the bottom of your roster.

With 347 laps led over the last five Charlotte races, Jimmie Johnson will likely find success this week. Johnson has already won three races this season and is one of the top drivers in the series over the last few weeks. His 93% of his laps in the top-15 is second-best in the series to Kevin Harvick. Over the first 11 races in 2015, Jimmie Johnson is rewarding fantasy owners with 2.80 points per fantasy dollar. For the top drivers in the series, he is providing the second-most value per dollar.

With high dollar options for the top three drivers on my roster, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I have ignored David Gilliland for the 2015 season because he consistently runs in the bottom third. His track data, as evidenced by his 29th place average over the last five Charlotte races, is not overly impressive. In 2015, he is offering over three points per fantasy dollar. Most of this is due to a plus nine start-to-finish differential. Gilliland will stay on my roster unless he qualifies better than average. I may sub Chase Elliott for Gilliland depending on practice times and qualifying.

Another driver who benefits from start-to-finish differential is Matt DiBenedetto. With a plus seven figure and an average finish position of 30th, he is providing great value in 2015. While these numbers do not sound overly impressive, the translation is 3.78 fantasy points per dollar this year. This value is third-best in the series behind Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Charlotte races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is that we know which drivers will provide the most value each week. Kurt Busch does not have the track history at Charlotte, but has provided the second-most value of any driver in the series in 2015. As a consolation prize, we will use his Charlotte numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KURT BUSCH AT CHARLOTTE

  • Laps Led last five Charlotte races: 10 laps equals 1 points per race
  • Fast laps last five Charlotte races: 37 laps equals 3.7 points per race
  • Average finish position: 17.8 equals 26.2 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 3.4 equals (-3.4) points per race
  • Average number of points last five Charlotte races: 27.50
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.50
  • Points per dollar: 27.5 divided by 25.5 equals 1.08 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar rankings for each driver. For drivers with no track history, we will use 2015 numbers. Feel free to add your team to the comments section and check the comments after qualifying for any additional updates.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 3.16
  • Kevin Harvick 3.09
  • Brad Keselowski 2.33
  • Matt Kenseth 2.24
  • Denny Hamlin 1.89
  • Jamie McMurray 1.89
  • Jeff Gordon 1.82
  • Kyle Busch 1.73
  • Joey Logano 1.50
  • Kyle Larson 1.31
  • Kurt Busch 1.08
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.60

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 3.62
  • Carl Edwards 2.23
  • Ryan Newman 1.58
  • Clint Bowyer 1.42
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.42
  • Greg Biffle 1.33
  • Aric Almirola 0.94
  • Paul Menard 0.82

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.58
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.20
  • Tony Stewart 2.12

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 2.35
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.94
  • David Gilliland 1.90
  • Casey Mears 1.37
  • David Ragan 1.21
  • Ryan Blaney 0.77*
  • Danica Patrick 0.52

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.78*
  • Michael Annett 3.28
  • Landon Cassill 2.24
  • Chase Elliott 2.22*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.13*
  • Cole Whitt 1.94
  • Alex Bowman 1.86
  • Jeb Burton 1.42*
  • Josh Wise 1.15
  • Michael McDowell 1.00
  • JJ Yeley 0.67
  • Brett Moffitt 0.34

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.