NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 SONOMA, TOYOTA/SAVE MART 350

In the sixteenth race of the NASCAR season, we finally get to enjoy a road course after an off-week. Based on the nature of a road courses, there are drivers who specialize and are usually consistent in Sonoma. One of the challenges is that there are not many laps in the race and that passing is a challenge.

From a Fantasy Live perspective, the best strategy is to aim for points from the average finish position. As far as getting the best value out of your Fantasy Live dollar, you still want to front-load your lineup. There should be some budget options who are expected to overachieve this week. There is a lower risk to try alternate strategies this week, but the reward will also be lower than the typical race.

While I typically pick three top drivers and fill out my roster with budget choices, the strategy is slightly different in Sonoma. I will pick two top drivers, two budget drivers, and then fill out my roster with the best budget option available. A pair of Hendricks teammates will be at the top of my roster. Jimmie Jonson has spent 93% of his laps over the last five Sonoma races in the top-15 and has an average finish position of 5.8 during this time span. 56 laps led over five races would keep a driver off my roster on most tracks, but this is the fourth-best in the series at Sonoma. Due to gaining points from start-to-finish differential, Johnson has the most Fantasy Live points per race of any driver since 2010. With seven top-10 finishes over his last 10 races, Johnson is likely to earn finish position points for my team this week.

Johnson’s teammate, Jeff Gordon, has an even more impressive history at the track. While only leading twenty laps in the last five races at the track, Gordon has an third place average finish position. 80% of his laps have been run in the top-15 during this time span, good for third-best in the series. Since 2005, Gordon has six top-5 finishes and nine top-10 finishes. Jeff Gordon has a high probability for success this week.

The third selection for my roster is a budget option who has quietly provided value on Fantasy Live rosters all season. David Gilliland comes at a lower price tag and should outperform his value this week. While I am not expecting a top-5 finish out of the #38 car, Gilliland has averaged a 20th place finish over the past five races at the track. With a +7 start-to-finish differential, Gilliland has consistently worked his way through the field. Since 2005, Gilliland has three top-20 finishes and an average finish position of 21.4. If he averages anywhere around this mark, he will reward owners with two Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar.

Casey Mears has likely stayed off of most fantasy rosters this season, but this is a week where one can take a risk on the #13 car. His salary cap figure is relatively low. Like Gilliland, Mears average finish position should be enough to provide value for your roster. Since 2010, Mears has averaged a 19th place finish. He has six top-20 finishes over his last nine Sonoma races. I am expecting Mears to earn about two Fantasy Live points per salary cap dollar. At Sonoma, this is a valuable number.

For the fifth roster spot, my goal is to fill the spot with the best driver available. Three middle-tier drivers were tempting for the last spot. Austin Dillon finished 17th at Sonoma last year, and Tony Stewart has six top-10 finishes in his last 10 Sonoma races. Due to Dillon’s limited history and Stewart’s recent history, I went in another direction for the final spot. AJ Allmendinger has a lower average finish position at Sonoma, but he has decent overall numbers at the track. He has led 35 laps over the last five Sonoma races and has an average running position around 15th place. Allmendinger has two top-10 finishes in six races and has the highest upside of the middle-tier drivers.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to force us to use strategy in our roster selections, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Sonoma races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar and to reveal budget options. Kurt Busch is a top-end driver at Sonoma and should be considered for your roster. Regrettably, I did not have the room on my roster for him. As a consolation prize, we will use his Fantasy Live numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KURT BUSCH AT SONOMA

• Average finish position last five Sonoma Races: 10.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 3.6 equals (-3.6) points per race
• Laps led: 93 equals 9.3 points per race
• Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
• Total Fantasy Live points earned: 43.8
• Fantasy Live salary cap figure: 27
• Fantasy points per dollar: 43.8 divided by 27 equals 1.62 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in the series. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no track history, we will use the 2015 numbers to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. I hope you get the chance to watch one of the more exciting races of the NASCAR season and that you find success on your rosters. As always, feel free to post your lineup in the comment field.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jimmie Johnson 1.95
• Jeff Gordon 1.94
• Kurt Busch 1.62
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.08
• Jamie McMurray 0.99
• Joey Logano 0.97
• Brad Keselowski 0.93
• Matt Kenseth 0.61
• Kyle Busch 0.42
• Denny Hamlin (-0.09)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 2.11
• Edwards 1.72
• Kasey Kahne 1.61
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.33
• Aric Almirola 1.32
• Paul Menard 1.27
• Ryan Newman 1.00
• Kyle Larson (-0.35)

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Austin Dillon 2.25
• Greg Biffle 1.73
• AJ Allmendinger 1.47
• Tony Stewart 1.38
• Sam Hornish Jr. 0.76

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• David Gilliland 2.81
• Boris Said 2.40
• Cole Whitt 2.15
• Casey Mears 2.08
• David Ragan 1.44
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.38
• Danica Patrick 1.32
• Justin Allgaier 1.30

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 4.33
• Alex Bowman 3.20
• Michael McDowell 3.00
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.88*
• JJ Yeley 2.85
• Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
• Josh Wise 1.92
• Jeb Burton 1.89*
• Landon Cassill 1.15
• Alex Kennedy 0.45
• Justin Mars 0.00

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.