Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 RICHMOND, FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

The Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway lived up to its reputation as a 5-hour battle of attrition to the drivers and viewers. When the caution flags stopped, Carl Edwards came back from the dead to win the race in the closing laps!

We are now only one race away from the start of the Chase. Richmond International Raceway also offers the last opportunity for drivers to qualify for the playoffs by winning a race.

Expect drivers like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne to take long chances to try to sneak a win. From a fantasy racing perspective, front-load your lineup in an effort to get the most out of the laps led and fast laps statistic. With each team having a unique strategy due to the standings, the race in Richmond may prove itself to be difficult to forecast. I am leaning towards drivers who have been consistent throughout the season and had a positive outcome in the race earlier this season.

For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, the first roster choice will be no surprise. Kevin Harvick has been the most consistent driver in the series in 2015 and has a positive track history at Richmond. The combination is a recipe for a high probability for success this week. Harvick has finished in the top-5 in three of his last five Richmond starts. Over the same time span, Harvick has an average finish position of 6th place and has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15. In the April race, Harvick finished in 2nd place while spending 100% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 23 races in 2015, Harvick has earned 16 top-5 finishes and 20 top-10 finishes. He is 1st in the Series in laps led and fast laps. Due to his numbers, I recommend Harvick for your lineup.

After leading 291 laps en route to a victory in April, Kurt Busch is my recommendation for the 2nd roster spot. With laps led and fast laps weighted heavily this week, going with a driver who had a dominating effort during the most recent race is usually an effective strategy. Kurt Busch’s success at Richmond is not limited to the April race. With four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 8.4, Kurt Busch has enjoyed intermediate success as well. In 2015, Kurt Busch has the 2nd most laps led and 13 top-10 finishes. I expect Kurt Busch to reward owners who start him this week.

Although Joey Logano has not enjoyed long-term success in Richmond, his team has been on fire in the last couple of months. Logano finished in 5th place and led 94 laps earlier this season. With four top-10 finishes in five starts, Logano has seen success at the track. In 2015, Logano has 13 top-5 finishes and the 3rd-most laps led. Although my recommendations at the top of the lineups is predictable, all three combine 2015 success with positive track history. All three have a high probability for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I will round out my lineup with the best drivers available. These two slots are subject to change after qualifying. Michael Annett has a 34th place average in three starts and an average finish position of 32.3 in 2015. While neither number will lead you to a championship, there should be enough room to provide a value for his salary cap number. Annett has not provided my lineup with much value the last few weeks, so I will may consider the driver who qualifies 43rd in this spot. Matt DiBenedetto has been a pleasant surprise to those who have used him in 2015. He only finished 37th in April’s race, but a 31.5 average finish position in 2015 shows that he can provide value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best lineup each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Richmond races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Brad Keselowski has earned the most points of any driver, but misses my lineup because he has slipped a little over the last couple of months. As a consolation prize, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate the formula.

BRAD KESELOWSKI AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five Richmond races: 14.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.2 equals (-7.2) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 648 equals 64.8 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 209 equals 20.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total points earned last five Richmond races: 108.1
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 108.1 divided by $27.25 equals 3.97 points per dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. If you are far behind in the standings, you may want to consider drivers who are out of the Chase and going for broke this week. My suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Richmond history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 3.97
  • Kurt Busch 3.35
  • Kevin Harvick 2.07
  • Matt Kenseth 2.05
  • Joey Logano 2.01
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.67
  • Kyle Busch 1.37
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.18
  • Denny Hamlin 0.56

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Jeff Gordon 3.23
  • Carl Edwards 2.25
  • Ryan Newman 2.12
  • Aric Almirola 1.96
  • Clint Bowyer 1.96
  • Kasey Kahne 1.75
  • Jamie McMurray 1.68
  • Paul Menard 1.46
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.46
  • Kyle Larson 1.18

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Bifflo 1.50
  • Austin Dillon 1.34
  • Tony Stewart 0.92

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.58
  • Trevor Bayne 2.20
  • Casey Mears 1.59
  • Danica Patrick 1.52
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.46
  • Cole Whitt 0.74
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.27

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Timmy Hill 3.60
  • David Gilliland 2.87
  • Justin Allgaier 2.69
  • Reed Sorenson 2.21
  • JJ Yeley 1.98
  • Landon Cassill 1.97
  • Jeb Burton 1.89 *
  • David Ragan 1.85
  • Jeb Burton 1.58
  • Michael Annett 1.52
  • Alex Bowman 1.28
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.13
  • Brian Scott 0.53 *
  • Josh Wise 0.49
  • Brett Moffitt 0.00
  • Michael McDowell (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DARLINGTON, BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

NASCAR pulled a switch this year and the Labor Day race has moved to Darlington, South Carolina. Darlington Raceway is an historic track that is difficult for drivers to negotiate. As an Atlanta resident, I am slightly disappointed that our holiday race has moved to April. However, this week’s race will be fun to watch as drivers get frustrated at the conditions during the race.

For NASCAR Fantasy Live purposes, this is a good week to front-load your lineups. If you are far behind in the standings, you can pick drivers who are not Chase eligible like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne. They will be forced to take the risks you need to get back into the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, you can go with a conservative approach to your lineup and pick winless drivers who are currently set to go to the Chase like Jeff Gordon and Paul Menard as they will be attempting to avoid big mistakes this week.

As a regular to my lineup this season, Kevin Harvick has helped my team towards the top of the standings. He won last April’s race in Darlington, leading 238 laps on his way to the winner’s circle. We hope that he repeats his efforts from last year’s race. Over the last 5 races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average. He has the top team so far this season, logging 15 top-5 finishes through 22 races. Harvick has the most laps led of any driver this year by a wide margin, and there is no sign of regression. Keep Harvick in your lineup as long as he keeps up his level of production.

Denny Hamlin finished in the middle of the pack in last year’s race, but that is a rare circumstance. Since 2005, Hamlin has earned seven top-10 finishes in nine races. Recently, Hamlin has a 6th average and is running 99% of his laps inside the top-15 over the last five Darlington races. With only nine top-10 finishes in 2015 through 22 races, Hamlin has not been one of the elite drivers in the Series. In Hamlin’s case, I am valuing track history over seasonal statistics.

For the third spot in my lineup, I am recommending a driver that I had completely written off at one point of the season. Kyle Busch has recovered from a broken leg to win four races in 2015 and establish himself as a Chase contender. Kyle Busch has found success in South Carolina. Over the last five races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has earned four top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position. His 416 laps led over this stretch is the most in the Series. I expect Kyle Busch to be one of the front-runners for this week.

With a large chunk of my budget allocated to the top-three spots, I will need to choose the best budget options for my final two recommendations. Although I do not trust him on a tricky track like Darlington, Chase Elliot is in the lineup for his final installment before he joins the series full-time next season. In his previous four races this season, Elliot has averaged a 22nd place finish. As far as budget options, you will be hard-pressed to find one with more upside. For the fifth spot, I will go with my usual budget recommendation in Michael Annett. Annett only has a 32nd place average finish position and finished in 42nd place at Darlington last year. I may keep an eye on qualifying and switch him out if another budget driver looks more tempting. Alex Bowman and Matt DiBenedetto stand out as possible replacements.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. For our formula, we first calculate the total number of points earned by each driver over the last five Darlington races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Greg Biffle is a healthy option for a team that wants to go for broke in the standings. He has the most laps led since 2005 at Darlington. We will use his numbers to illustrate the points per dollar formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT DARLINGTON

  • Average finish position last five Darlington races: 12th place average equals 32 points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Plus 1.6 equals 1.6 points per race
  • Laps led: 79 equals 7.9 points per race
  • Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 46
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $19.25
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar. 46 divided by 19.25 equals 2.39 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar for all drivers entered at Darlington this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for any rookie driver with no track data. Good luck as we make the push towards the Fantasy NASCAR playoffs.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.70
  • Kevin Harvick 2.89
  • Denny Hamlin 2.41
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.25
  • Matt Kenseth 2.03
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.77
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brad Keselowski 1.07
  • Joey Logano 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.57
  • Jeff Gordon 2.35
  • Kyle Larson 2.13
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.72
  • Jamie McMurray 1.47
  • Ryan Newman 1.41
  • Clint Bowyer 1.33
  • Paul Menard 0.44

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.03
  • Austin Dillon 2.87
  • Greg Biffle 2.39
  • David Ragan 1.82
  • Aric Almirola 0.72

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 2.45
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.39
  • Justin Allgaier 2.35
  • Chase Elliott 2.00 *
  • Casey Mears 1.69
  • Cole Whitt 0.74
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 4.76
  • Timmy Hill 3.90
  • Alex Bowman 2.58
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.35 *
  • Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
  • Landon Cassill 2.13
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • David Gilliland 1.96
  • Reed Sorenson 1.69
  • Josh Wise 1.39
  • JJ Yeley 0.90
  • Mike Bliss (-0.73)
  • Michael Annett (-1.67)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 BRISTOL, IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE

The NASCAR series returns south of the Mason-Dixon this week and returns to Bristol Motor Speedway for the second running of the season. When Brad Keselowski ran into Joey Logano in the early laps, I saw two drivers in my lineup limp to bad results earlier this season. I am hoping for better luck in the second installment.

With only a few races until the Chase, drivers have different strategies. Likewise, your fantasy teams position in the NASCAR Fantasy Live standings should determine how you handle your lineup. If you want to play it safe, choose drivers on the bubble of qualifying for the Chase as they are likely to have conservative setups. If you find yourself at the bottom of the standings, go for broke with drivers who need to win to get in. Either way, the key to Bristol is to pick the drivers who lead laps. Like last week with Matt Kenseth, this is a race of the haves and the have-nots. The amount of laps will enable dramatic swings in the standings. Your basic strategy should be to front-load your lineup in an effort to caputrue the laps led. My recommended lineup is based on a conservative approach based on my current position in the standings.

My first choice for my lineup won the Bristol Food City 500 race in 2015. Though he rarely finds his way onto my team, Matt Kenseth has seen consistent success at the short track. Over the last five Bristol races, he has two wins under his belt and three top-5 finishes. His 508 laps led during this stretch is the best in the series. He only led 47 laps in his winning effort in April, but he spent 100% of his laps inside the top-15 and had an average running position of 3rd. Over the long haul, Kenseth has 14 top-10 finishes since 2005 and has the second-most laps led. In 2015, Kenseth has enjoyed eight top-5 and 14 top-10 finishes in the first 22 races. He has only led 147 laps this entire season, but luckily two of those laps got him to the winner’s circle. Though not usually one of my lineup recommendations, Matt Kenseth should help your team this week.

The 2nd roster spot is reserved to a driver who is not a stranger to my Fantasy Live lineup. Kevin Harvick had a rare bad finish at the last Bristol race, but led 184 laps before being wrecked. With only six top-10 finishes in the last 21 Bristol races, Harvick has not seen long-term success in Tennessee. Harvick has hands-down been the best driver in the Series in 2015. With 15 top-5 finishes and 1,391 laps led this season, Harvick has a high probability for success this week if he can stay clear of the wrecks this time.

While Kyle Busch has long-term success at the track and was a tempting roster choice, there were some low cost drivers that I wanted on my roster. As a result, I had to save some salary cap funds with the 3rd spot. Paul Menard has earned three top-10 finishes in his last five Bristol races. In 2015, Menard has four top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 15.8. My concern with Menard is that I can leave a lot of points on the table with laps led and fast laps, but he should not hurt my team with a solid finish.

I left a little extra salary cap room for the final two spots because I like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Justin Allgaier. Stenhouse finished in 4th place in the April race at Bristol. Over five starts at the track, Stenhouse has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position in Bristol. His salary cap figure is low due to a 26th place average finish position in 2015. I expect the #17 car to exceed expectations this week. Justin Allgaier is always a risky option as he ends up in the wall as often as he crosses the finish line. He finished in 8th place in Bristol earlier this season and has a 14th place average finish at the track. Like Stenhouse, his 27th place average finish position in 2015 is pedestrian. There is a chance I could alter my lineup after qualifying to try to capture the laps led points, but I want to keep the #17 and #51 if at all possible. If you look at the numbers, there is value with the budget drivers this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. First, our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Bristol races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap number to find out which drivers are expected to provide the most value. Joey Logano has been on a tear over the last month and a half. Although he missed my roster, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

JOEY LOGANO AT BRISTOL

  • Laps Led last five Bristol races: 89 equals 8.9 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast Laps: 88 equals 8.8 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average Finish Position: 16.6 equals 27.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Negative 10.4 equals (-10.4 Fantasy Live points per race)
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 34.7
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 34.7 divided by $27.75 equals 1.25 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in the field this week. For drivers with no track data, we will use the 2015 numbers to give you an idea how much value to expect this week. My picks are highlighted in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.68
  • Kevin Harvick 1.89
  • Kurt Busch 1.82
  • Jamie McMurray 1.80
  • Kyle Busch 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.48
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.46
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.33
  • Joey Logano 1.25
  • Denny Hamlin 0.88

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 3.43
  • Carl Edwards 2.78
  • Kasey Kahne 2.43
  • Clint Bowyer 2.19
  • Jeff Gordon 2.10
  • Paul Menard 2.08
  • Ryan Newman 1.58
  • Aric Almirola 1.42
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.49

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.62
  • Austin Dillon 2.22
  • Greg Biffle 2.10

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.78
  • Justin Allgaier 3.76
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 3.10
  • Danica Patrick 2.46
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.66
  • Trevor Bayne 1.47
  • David Ragan 1.42
  • Casey Mears 1.36
  • Cole Whitt 0.97
  • Ryan Blaney 0.73 *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.12
  • Reed Sorenson 5.00
  • JJ Yeley 4.09
  • Michael Annett 3.69
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.31
  • Alex Bowman 2.92
  • Josh Wise 2.85
  • David Gilliland 2.42
  • Brett Moffitt 1.79
  • Mike Bliss 1.48
  • Michael McDowell 0.81
  • Timmy Hill 0.20
  • Jeb Burton (-0.95)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MICHIGAN, PURE MICHIGAN 400

For the second week in a row, the winner of the race came down to a fuel strategy paying off in the last laps. NASCAR continues the summer series in the north this week as they return to Michigan International Speedway. This track is one of the fastest in the series, and the ability to find speed will be critical in determining the winner. The June race was filled with rain delays and cautions, and I hope this week’s race is easier to watch than the earlier installment.

From a NASCAR Fantasy Live perspective, my recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three best drivers and fill in the remaining roster spots with the best budget option available.

With the exception of a blown engine at Indianapolis, Kevin Harvick has consistently rewarded fantasy owners who have started him. He was a turn away from victory last week at Watkins Glen. Harvick led the most laps at the June race at Michigan before a botched tire from a pit stop shot him to a 29th place finish. Over the last five races at Michigan, Harvick has an average finish position of 7.4 and 91% of his laps have been in the top-15. Four of his last five races at Michigan have resulted in a top-5 finish. He has led the second-most laps and has the most fast laps of any driver in the series over this stretch. In 2015, Harvick has 19 top-10 finishes and the most laps led of any driver in the series. Kevin Harvick should be an easy choice to start your roster this week.

Joey Logano is coming off an impressive weekend at Watkins Glen and has enjoyed a streak of top-5 finishes. He finished in 5th place at the track earlier this year. Over his last five races at Michigan, Logano has finished in the top-10 all five times and has an average finish position of 5.4. His 194 laps led are the most in the series. In 2015, Logano has enjoyed 13 top-5 finishes and is third in laps led. Your lineup should have Joey Logano as one of its drivers.

Along with Logano, his Penske teammate Brad Keselowski is also a recommended choice for the second installment in MIchigan. Keselowski has a series-best 96% of his laps in the top-15 over the last five Michigan races. He finished in 6th place earlier this season. In 2015, Keselowski has finished in the top-10 13 times. The only drawback with Keselowski is that he has not led many laps at Michigan, and you may not enjoy many laps from this category.

With the first three spots taking up a significant amount of my team budget, the final two spots will be designated to budget drivers. Cole Whitt finished 32nd earlier this season at the track. In 2015, he has an average finish position of 28.4 including a top-20 finish. Michael Annett has two top-20 finishes in 2015 along with a 27th place average. Both of these drivers should provide enough value to warrant roster spots.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply choosing the best lineups each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Michigan races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. The end result is a number to predict which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Kurt Busch won the June race. Although he is off my lineup, we will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KURT BUSCH AT MICHIGAN

  • Laps Led last five Michigan races: 89 equals 8.9 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps last five Michigan races: 46 equals 4.6 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 6.2 equals (-6.2) Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average finish position: 16.6 equals 27.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 34.7
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Number: $27.75
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 34.7 divided by $27.75 equals 1.25 points per race

Below you will find the points per dollar for each driver at the track. For rookie drivers with no track history, we will use their 2015 numbers for all their races to give you an idea of their value. Recommended drivers are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Joey Logano 2.39
  • Kevin Harvick 2.11
  • Brad Keselowski 1.57
  • Jeff Gordon 1.52
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.33
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Kurt Busch 1.25
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.18
  • Matt Kenseth 1.14
  • Denny Hamlin 0.88
  • Kyle Busch (-0.20)

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.10
  • Paul Menard 1.88
  • Ryan Newman 1.67
  • Carl Edwards 1.49
  • Kasey Kahne 1.33
  • Aric Almirola 0.77
  • Kyle Larson 0.75

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.21
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.20
  • Tony Stewart 2.18

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 2.75
  • Casey Mears 2.44
  • Cole Whitt 2.37
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.29
  • Trevor Bayne 1.84
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.54
  • David Ragan 1.35
  • Justin Allgaier 1.07
  • Ryan Blaney 0.15

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 4.55
  • Timmy Hill 4.00
  • Michael Annett 3.18
  • Alex Kennedy 3.09
  • JJ Yeley 2.42
  • Landon Cassill 2.06
  • Josh Wise 1.94
  • Brett Moffitt 1.70
  • Jeb Burton 1.68
  • David Gilliland 1.41
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.29
  • Alex Bowman 0.81
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 WATKINS GLEN, CHEEZ-IT 355 AT THE GLEN

The last three laps of the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway made significant changes to our NASCAR standings as we waited to see who would have enough gas to finish the race. My lineup followed the path of Kevin Harvick, as a rare misfortune buried me in the standings. Matt Kenseth’s team found a way to victory much to Logano, Busch, and Truex’s misfortune.

Congratulations to the Pavement Pounders out of the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet league, who is now up to second overall in the Fantasy Live standings.

NASCAR stays in the north this week for the second road course of the season. You should not expect to earn many points from laps led and fast laps. Your best chance is to earn your points through average finish position and start-to-finish differential. There are some drivers who over-achieve and should provide value for your roster. If you look at the points per dollar numbers below, the results clearly point to leaning toward middle-tier drivers. As a result, I would recommend balancing your lineup with some of these overachieving drivers instead of the usual front-loading strategy. This may be the last chance for several teams to make the Chase, and I expect the closing laps to be as competitive as last season’s race.

My last Fantasy Live recommendations at a road course turned out to be a disaster, and we are rolling with a similar team this week. My first recommendation for your lineup is AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger had a top-car in Sonoma before a mechanical issue shot him to the back of the field. He has a moderate price tag, and his 2014 victory at Watkins Glen qualified him to make the Chase. Over the last five Watkins Glen races, Allmendinger has an average finish position of 5.8 and 81% of his laps in the top-15. Over his career, AJ has four top-10 finishes in six races. He only has an average finish position of 23rd place in 2015, and that is keeping his salary cap low. He should provide great value this week in New York. Let us hope the results are more prosperous than the last time he was recommended.

Kyle Busch has had an amazing recovery from a broken leg. At the time of Sonoma, I held him out of my lineup due to the risk with his leg. After winning Sonoma and three other races, the worry over his leg has subsided. Kyle Busch has the most laps led at Watkins Glen over the last five races. He has four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 11.8. Historically, he has eight top-10 finishes in 10 races since 2005. Kyle Busch has collected three wins in his first eight races since returning. His lap-to-lap performance is good for fourth-best in the series. His recent string of finishes gives him great potential this week.

After watching Keselowski drive in Watkins Glen last year, I was surprised to see that he has not yet won at the track. He seems to be near the top when the race comes to a close, as evidenced by his three top-5 finishes in his last five races. Although he has not been as successful in the summer months, Keselowski has earned 11 top-10 finishes through the first 19 races in 2015. He is sixth in laps led this season. Keselowski is due to break his slump, and Watkins Glen is a great track for him to find his groove.

Casey Mears is another driver who was a disappointing Sonoma recommendations. He drove a little too hard, resulting in his entire brake assembly ripping off his car at the end of the race. He is back in my recommendations at Sonoma due to an average finish position of 15.8 over the last five Watkins Glen races. Mears has four straight top-20 finishes at Watkins Glen. Traditionally, Mears has worked his way through the field. On many tracks, I tend to ignore this number. At a track like Watkins Glen, you want someone who has proven the ability to pass. He only has an average finish position of 21.6 in 2015, which should translate to a valuable option this week.

With a few moderately-priced drivers in my lineup, I had more budget than usual for the final roster spot. My choice came down to Austin Dillon or Danica Patrick. In the end, I went with Austin Dillon because he is improving in the standings throughout the summer. He only has one run at the track, finishing 16th. He also passed 15 cars in the race, and he has shown the ability to pass in a limited sample. His average finish position in 2015 is a modest 21.3 and should be a value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the top five drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Watkins Glen races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine how much value each driver is expected to provide for your lineup. Danica Patrick missed out on the fifth spot of my lineup, and we will use her Watkins Glen numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DANICA PATRICK AT WATKINS GLEN

  • Average finish position last five Watkins Glen races: 20.5 equals 22.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 18.5 equals 18.5 Fantasy Live Points per race
  • Laps Led: 0
  • Fast Led: 0
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 41
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $12.50
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 41 divided by $12.50 equals 3.28 points per race

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver this week. Recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 history for rookie drivers with no history at the track.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 1.63
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
  • Brad Keselowski 1.50
  • Kevin Harvick 1.45
  • Matt Kenseth 1.37
  • Kurt Busch 0.95
  • Joey Logano 0.83
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.81
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.80
  • Jamie McMurray 0.72
  • Jeff Gordon 0.71
  • Denny Hamlin 0.24

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 2.60
  • Carl Edwards 1.85
  • Clint Bowyer 1.22
  • Kasey Kahne 1.19
  • Aric Almirola 1.19
  • Paul Menard 0.92
  • Ryan Newman 0.72

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Casey Mears 2.86
  • Austin Dillon 2.80
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.68
  • Greg Biffle 1.46
  • Tony Stewart 0.91

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 3.28
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.84
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.75
  • David Gilliland 2.66
  • David Ragan 2.39
  • Cole Whitt (-2.27)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Chris Buescher 4.00 *
  • Michael Annett 3.83
  • Alex Kennedy 3.36
  • Landon Cassill 3.09
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.67 *
  • Justin Allgaier 2.46
  • Timmy Hill 2.20 *
  • Jeb Burton 1.40 *
  • Boris Said 1.30 (Currently not listed in Fantasy Live, based on $10 cap)
  • Alex Bowman 0.90
  • JJ Yeley (-1.10)
  • Michael McDowell (-1.87)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.