Month: June 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Michigan, Quicken Loans 400

By passing Brad Keselowski in the final laps at Pocono, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has officially punched his ticket to the chase. Similar to last week’s race, there is not a historically dominant driver to pick this week at Michigan. This week, there are several viable options to choose from for salary cap racing. You will need luck on your side this week as we dive into the numbers at Michigan.

With many solid choices at the top, the strategy for this article is to find the potential sleepers first. Juan Pablo Montoya is crossing over from open-wheel racing this week and provides excellent value at $10. At first, Montoya seemed risky because of a concern about driving in an unreliable vehicle. Knowing that he is driving on the Penske team reduces this risk. Montoya is a bargain-pick who should be in your lineup.

Danica Patrick is the second-best sleeper option. Although she has been inconsistent in 2014, she passed twenty-four cars en route to a 13th place finish last June. She may not be able to duplicate her 55 points from last spring, but you should get value out of her $14.75 price tag. Other value drivers to consider include Landon Cassill and Travis Kvapil.

With the two sleeper choices identified, we can focus on the top choices. The driver with the most fantasy live points over the last five years is Carl Edwards. Edwards has only led 47 total laps during this time span. The 99 car is a consistent finisher at Michigan with a 6th place average over the last ten years.

Greg Biffle is a close second to Edwards in total fantasy live points. Biffle has led the most laps in June races since 2009 with 196 laps led. He has led 40 laps or more in four of the last five years, showing his consistency at the track. Biflle also boasts a 7th place average finish over the last five years.

With $25 remaining, the final salary car pick will go to Tony Stewart. Kevin Harvick and Matt Kenseth are expected to do well, but carry too high of a price. Smoke has improved since the summer races began with solid runs at Pocono and Dover. Stewart has averaged a fifth-place finish over the last five years.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com uses a salary cap format for each race in order to prevent us from simply choosing the top drivers every week. Their scoring system combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. This formula calculates the total number of points each driver accumulates for a given race over the past five years. Once the point total is determined, we divide this figure by the salary cap total on fantasy live. We can then determine the number of points to expect from each salary cap dollar.

For further clarification, see the Michigan details for Greg Biffle below:

GREG BIFFLE AT MICHIGAN

  • Total laps led last five June races: 196 (19.6 points per race)
  • Final position: Average position of 6.8 = 38 points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Start to finish differential: Plus 6 = 6 points per race
  • Total points per race: 63.60
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 63.6/23.25 = 2.74

We will use 2014 totals for drivers with no historical data at the track. The points per fantasy dollar for each driver are below. Suggested drivers this week are in bold:

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Carl Edwards 2.06
  • Clint Bowyer 1.69
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.65
  • Matt Kenseth 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.39
  • Brad Keselowski 1.34
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.32
  • Jeff Gordon 1.13
  • Kyle Busch 1.12
  • Joey Logano 0.82

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Greg Biffle 2.31
  • Tony Stewart 1.99
  • Denny Hamlin 1.79
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr 1.32
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.30
  • Brian Vickers 1.26
  • Kyle Larson 1.21
  • Austin Dillon 1.14
  • Jamie McMurray 1.10
  • Paul Menard 1.02
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.99
  • Ryan Newman 0.98
  • Aric Almirola 0.93
  • Kurt Busch 0.60
  • Kasey Kahne 0.12

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.46
  • Justin Allgaier 1.23
  • Casey Mears 1.09

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • Danica Patrick 3.73
  • David Ragan 2.19
  • David Gilliland 1.61
  • Cole Whitt 1.56

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 3.54
  • Landon Cassill 3.23
  • Juan Pablo Montoya 2.94
  • Reed Sorenson 2.52
  • JJ Yeley 2.15
  • Michael Annett 1.73
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Ryan Truex 0.76
  • Trevor Bayne 0.56
  • Josh Wise (-0.53)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Michigan International Speedway, Quicken Loans 400

The stars are starting to shine as we get closer to the start of the Chase. Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr on getting his second win of the season and first of his career at Pocono. Winning at a track you have never won at before makes you a legitimate contender to win a championship with the new rules this year. This just shows that this team has a chance to win at tracks they haven’t won at yet.

This week the series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Quicken Loans 400. MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped oval with 18 degree banking in the turns. It is very similar to California Speedway in the configuration and I believe the biggest difference in these tracks is the weather. Not a real big deal in racing, so those who are good at one of these tracks is usually good at the other.

QUICKEN LOANS 400

Greg Biffle: I am going to go out on a sturdy limb and predict that Greg gets his first victory of the season. He has won two of the past four races at this track and that is why I say the limb is sturdy. I believe that this is Greg’s favorite track to run on and that gives a driver an advantage heading into the weekend. He also has six top five finishes in his last eleven starts at this track, so he is a good pick to start no matter what.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin finished second in the last two race run here and the way he has been running this season I believe he will have a contending car once again. This team has had a great car every weekend and is a legitimate contender in Kevin’s first year with Stewart/Haas Racing. This team is ready to go every week this year.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has finished in the top ten in his last three starts here.. This team already has a win on the season, but they would like to win another race heading int;o the Chase to prove that they can run well on a consistent basis.

Tony Stewart: Smoke has had a pretty rough season so far, but the weather is warming up and he is feeling better every week. He has finished in the top ten at Michigan in six of his last seven races and knows that he has a car as good as Kevin Harvick under the hood every week I look for him to content this weekend and for the remainder of the season on a weekly basis.

Jimmie Johnson: I can’t talk about California and Michigan without mentioning Jimmie. He has won two of the last three races run this season and is always good at both of the aforementioned tracks. He has also lead laps in the last three races at this track, but lost engines in two of those races. I wouldn’t worry too much about the engines this week though.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always been a terror at Michigan and California, and even though he is still in second place in the standings I know he would love to get a win very soon. I think this team needs to go back to the basics and not worry so much about what might or might not happen during the race and just race. Then they will be good to go.

Clint Bowyer: This is another team that has been very disappointed with themselves so far this year. but they have always been very good at Michigan. Clint has finished in the top ten here in his last six starts and just needs to have things go right throughout the day. His pit crew needs to be better and then he will be a contender late in this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won two races at this track, including a win here two years ago. Last year he struggled here, blowing an engine in the spring race and losing a bunch of laps in the fall race. This team isn’t worried about those things this season and will be looking back at the win they had two years ago as they head into this weekend’s race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Grag Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Juan Pablo Montoya
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Greg Biffle
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Pocono, Pocono 400

During last week’s Dover race, all of the data strongly pointed towards a dominating effort by Jimmie Johnson. Johnson did not disappoint with a dominant car that led over 200 laps on his way to his second consecutive victory. The Pocono race this week does not have as clear of a path to fantasy success, as there is not a dominant team over the past five years. Still, there are definitely drivers who perform well at the Pennsylvania tri-oval and can guide you to victory.

While reviewing the total laps led over the last five spring races, no driver has led more than 200 total laps over the five races. The drivers with the most laps led are Denny Hamlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards. Johnson should be chosen because his team is returning to its usual elite form. Hamlin and Edwards have a lower average finish than Johnson. Between the two, I would recommend Hamlin because he has led the most laps.

Of the remaining top drivers, Tony Stewart has the highest points per fantasy dollar at Pocono with 1.85. He only averaged 8 laps led per race with a 13th place average. He looked better last week in Dover, and usually finishes strong in the summer races. Stewart, Hamlin, and Johnson combine for a promising starting trio with a combined salary cap total of $73.25.

To fill out the roster, we need to find the best value with the remaining $26.75 on the cap. During last year’s Pocono race, I started Travis Kvapil in my yahoo league and was worried on how he would run. He did not disappoint and has great value play of the week. Wit a 23rd place average are the last five races, Kvapil can easily outperform is $6.50 salary cap value.

There were not many superb options to choose with the remaining $20.25. The best drivers remaining at this dollar value are Casey Mears and AJ Allmendinger. Neither driver has a successful history at Pocono with the edge going slightly to Mears. The expectations are low with a 25th place average, but I would rather choose Mears than take Hamlin, Johnson, or Stewart off the roster.

Another option to consider is Matt Kenseth. As the season continues, Kenseth is becoming more desperate to earn his first win. He will be taking risks to win, which may make him worth starting. Jeff Gordon is having a consistent 2014 and has a successful history at Pocono. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano can be considered on any given week of the season even if the track data does not support starting them.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent players from simply starting the best five drivers every week. The format forces you to try to find value in under-the-radar drivers. The point accumulated are a combination of final position, laps led, fast laps, and start-to-finish differential. This formula measures the total points per race over the last five spring races and divides that number by the salary cap figure on nascar.com. The final number allows us to predict how many points to expect per fantasy dollar for each driver.

For further clarification, please see Tony Stewart’s spring Pocono details below:

TONY STEWART AT POCONO

  • Total laps leds last five Pocono spring races: 40
  • Laps led per race: 8 (4 fantasy points)
  • Start-to-finish differential: 7
  • Average finish position: 13th (31 points)
  • Total points per race: 42
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Total: $23.25
  • Fantasy points per salary cap dollar: 1.85

For rookie drivers with no track history, this article is uses the driver’s results for the 2014 season in order to get an idea what to expect from them. My picks for this weeks race at Pocono are in bold below.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 1.67
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Joey Logano 1.49
  • Matt Kenseth 1.45
  • Kyle Larson 1.36
  • Jeff Gordon 1.29
  • Carl Edwards 1.18
  • Kyle Busch 1.14
  • Clint Bowyer 1.04
  • Brad Keselowski 0.85
  • Kevin Harvick 0.84

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Denny Hamlin 1.89
  • Tony Stewart 1.85
  • Ryan Newman 1.73
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.38
  • Austin Dillon 1.43
  • Greg Biffle 1.32
  • Kasey Kahne 1.13
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.95
  • Brian Vickers 0.90
  • Jamie McMurray 0.90
  • Paul Menard 0.87
  • Aric Almirola 0.70
  • Kurt Busch 0.39
  • Ricky Stenhouse 0.39

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Justin Allgaier 1.23
  • Casey Mears 1.07
  • Danica Patrick 1.07
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.79

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 1.72
  • David Gilliland 1.46
  • Cole Whitt 1.43

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 5.54
  • Dave Blaney 2.88
  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Michael Annett 1.78
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Josh Wise 0.53
  • Landon Cassill 0
  • JJ Yeley (-0.46)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Pocono Raceway, Pocono 400

Jimmie Johnson pulled off his second win in a row and Matt Kenseth, without a win yet this season, took over the point standings with a third place finish. So, now we are half-way to the Chase, we have ten different winners and the driver that is leading the standings doesn’t have a win yet.

Next week the series heads to Pocono Raceway for the running of the Pocono 400. Pocono is a two and a half mile flat track with only three turns. In other words it looks like a triangle and every corner is different for the drivers. In my opinion the races at Pocono are quite boring, but that is just my opinion.

POCONO 400

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is my pick to win this week at Pocono. He has always run well here throughout his career, winning six races and finishing in the top five in almost half of the races he has run here. Jeff won this race in the fall of 2012 and finished second here last fall. He is very consistent and is having a great year, having good cars every week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is on a roll and when he gets on a roll he is tough to beat. He won this race last season and finished and has finished in the top five here in four of his last six races and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen since 2007. This team looks like they have things figured out right now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has four straight top ten finishes here and had a good run at Dover last weekend. Tony has been inconsistent so far this year, but he has been that way in the past. I think he is still recovering from the broken leg he suffered last season and is going to start running better every week as we get further into the season.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has been very consistent all season and even though he has never been great at Pocono, I believe that this year will be different for this team. They are very confident week in and week out this year and will have another good run once again this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has had an up and down season so far this year, but he has always run well at Pocono. He has won four races in sixteen starts and has finished in the top five in half of those starts also. This could be the place where Denny picks up his second win of the season.

Kurt Busch: Here is a team that has been struggling lately, but this could be the week that they turn things around. Kurt has two wins at this track and has finished in the top five in forty percent of his career starts. That includes three top five finishes in his last five starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although Dale has never won a race at this track he is very consistent here. He has finished in the top ten in five of his last six starts here and has run well all season. This team would like to get another victory soon and a win here would really boost their confidence.

Carl Edwards: Carl is another driver that has always run well at Pocono. He has two wins to his credit and seems to excel on the flat tracks like Pocono. They already have a win that should get them into the Chase, but they would like to become a little more consistent and be able to compete for the win on a weekly basis.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win here and has finished no worse than twenty-third in his eight starts at this track. He has finished in the top six in three of his last five starts at Pocono and knows how to get around this track. This is the type of track that this team could pick up their second win of the season at.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR POCONO RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT POCONO RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch