Tag: pocono

As we begin the month of August, the summer months are beginning to end and kids are getting ready to go back to school. In the NASCAR series, this means that drivers are running out of opportunities to qualify for the Chase.

We are back at Pocono Raceway this week, and all of the top drivers at the track are likely to make the Chase. There will probably not be any surprises. Since the Pocono race in June was not too long ago, I like to see the results from the June race as the best indicator for results this week. You will not get a ton of points out of laps led or fast laps this week, but I would still recommend front-loading your lineup with your three top choices and rounding out your lineup with budget options.

For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, you already have a good idea who the first choice for my lineup will be. Kevin Harvick led 39 laps en route to a second place finish earlier this summer at Pocono. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five races at the track and an average finish position of 8.8. His 86 fast laps over the same time span is second among racers. Harvick’s 2015 numbers continue to be strong. He has 12 top-5 finishes and 16 top-10 finishes through 18 races. He has the most laps led and the most fast laps of any driver this season. With 91% of his laps within the top-15, he shows a consistency on a lap-to-lap basis. Harvick will continue to stay in my lineup as long as he continues to run near the top.

While leading 97 laps, Martin Truex Jr. won the June race at Pocono. Since the race dates are, the previous race results have a good chance to be duplicated. The only reason to avoid Truex is that his historical track numbers only show an average finish position of 15.1 and only seven top-10 finishes since 2005. Despite his track numbers, Truex has 14 top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 11.7 in 2015. His 486 Laps Led is third in the Series, and he has run 83% of his laps in the top-15. The #78 Furniture Row team has cooled down a bit as the summer months have progressed, but this appears to be more due to bad luck than a slow car. Expect a strong effort from Martin Truex Jr. this week.

I cannot have a recommended driver list from Pocono without including Dale Earnhardt Jr. Junior finished 11th in the last Pocono race, but won both races in 2014. His numbers at the track over the last five races is impressive. Dale Jr. has four top-5 finishes, an average finish position of 4.2, and 91% of his laps in the top-15. In 2015, Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s average finish position is 10.6, good for fifth in the series. He is also top-10 in laps led and fast laps.

With limited salary cap resources available, the bottom two drivers will not be as successful. Justin Allgaier finished in 20th place earlier this season and has a 21st place average finish position at the track. I have been expecting the #51 car to exceed his budget salary cap number for a few weeks. His team is always risky, but he has upside for his low salary cap number. In 2015, Allgaier has two top-20 finishes and an average finish position of 27.1. Michael Annett disappointed me earlier this season with a 34th place finish at Pocono. Over three races, he has a 25th place average finish position. Considering his low salary cap number, Michael Annett is a great budget option for your team. There are other budget options who provide incredible value this week. I am half-tempted to roster Brendan Gaughan at $4.50 to provide more versatility to my other roster spots for the rest of the season.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the five best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned over the last five Pocono races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the most salary cap value. Jimmie Johnson finished 3rd earlier in 2015, but narrowly missed my lineup recommendations. To make it up to him, we will use his numbers from the last five Pocono races to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT POCONO

• Average finish position last five Pocono races: 12.4 equals 30.6 Fantasy Live points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 2.8 equals negative 2.8 points per race
• Laps Led: 176 laps led equals 17.6 points per race
• Fast Laps: 52 fast laps equals 5.2 points per race
• Fantasy Live points per race: 50.6
• Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.50
• Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.6 divided by 27.50 equals 1.84 points per dollar

Below you will see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for all the drivers in the series. Highlighted picks are in bold. Because we already ran at Pocono two months ago, all drivers in the race have a track history this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.05
• Jeff Gordon 1.91
• Jimmie Johnson 1.84
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.65
• Kurt Busch 1.61
• Brad Keselowski 1.60
• Kevin Harvick 1.56
• Jamie McMurray 1.44
• Joey Logano 1.13
• Denny Hamlin 0.91
• Kyle Busch 0.74
• Matt Kenseth 0.63

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Kyle Larson 1.71
• Ryan Newman 1.57
• Kasey Kahne 1.54
• Clint Bowyer 1.36
• Carl Edwards 0.46
• Aric Almirola 0.30
• Paul Menard 0.09

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Greg Biffle 2.30
• Tony Stewart 2.09
• Austin Dillon 1.32
• AJ Allmendinger (-0.01)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• David Ragan 2.47
• David Gilliland 2.27
• Casey Mears 2.14
• Trevor Bayne 2.11
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.82
• Danica Patrick (-0.14)
• Sam Hornish Jr. (-1.05)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 4.23
• Jeb Burton 3.58
• Matt DiBenedetto 3.08
• Justin Allgaier 2.91
• Brett Moffitt 2.53
• Alex Bowman 2.40
• Josh Wise 2.27
• Alex Kennedy 2.16
• JJ Yeley 2.10
• Brendan Gaughan 1.33
• Landon Cassill 1.18

Pocono Raceway is a challenging track to forecast from a Fantasy Live perspective. Unlike Dover last week, there is no driver who dominates the race. The laps led and fast laps numbers are spread out. While I would still recommend front-loading your lineup, it is not as necessary to try this strategy. I would keep an eye on qualifying and try to benefit from start-to-finish differential if possible. While not wildly unpredictable like a restrictor plate track, Pocono offers an opportunity to take some risks in your lineup if you are behind in the standings.

There are many drivers who have favorable numbers at the track, but nobody who stands out as a must-start driver. My first roster spot will go to a fan favorite who won both races last year in Pocono. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has an average finish position of 8.4 over the last five Pocono races. He is one of the best drivers in the series in 2015 and has a high probability for success. While he is second-best in the series with 82% of laps in the top-15 since 2005, Junior has only led 44 laps during this same time span. Historically, he has nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 races at the track. Junior is hard to keep off your roster due to last year’s success at the track, but the upside may not be as high as one would think. Earnhardt Jr. is a good choice for those at the top of the standings, but I would not define him as a must start.

While he does not have the dominant numbers in Pocono, keeping Kevin Harvick out of your lineup is difficult. Harvick has been the best driver in Fantasy Live in total number of points earned and has provided the best value per Fantasy Live dollar of any regular driver this season. Over the last five Pocono races, Harvick has an average finish of 11.6 and only five laps led. He is consistent at the track, but not dominant. He has enjoyed nine top-10 finishes and 19 top-20 finishes in the last 20 races.

The spot for the third driver in my lineup is a toss-up between Jeff Gordon and Brad Keselowski. Gordon has the most Fantasy Live points in the series over the last five races. However, Gordon has been underwhelming so far in 2015. Even though his track numbers are slightly worse, Brad Keselowski is my recommendation for your weekly lineup. With 121 laps led over the last five Pocono races, Brad Keselowski has the second-most in the series (Jimmie Johnson with 220). With 75% of his laps in the top-15 during the same time span, Keselowski shows enough consistency. His long-term numbers are not extremely impressive, but he does have three top-10 finishes in ten races. I may change this pick after qualifying and will keep a close eye on Keselowski, Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson.

Since I decided to front-load my lineup, there is little salary cap room to work with for the final two roster spots. One of the reasons why I decided to front-load my lineup is because there were some budget options I liked for this week. In two Pocono starts last year, Michael Annett over-achieved with a 21st place average. While his team is near the bottom most weeks, he has the potential to provide excellent value. If he matches last year’s production, Annett will average six points per dollar and is well worth the risk. Cole Whitt, with a 25th place average in two races last year, is the other budget driver. Whitt’s 2.95 points per dollar at Pocono is second-best in the series. I will keep an eye on qualifying, but I like these two drivers this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to force us to use strategy with our line-ups. Our formula calculates the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Pocono races. Next, we divide that number by the current Fantasy Live salary cap value to show which drivers are the most likely to provide value. Jeff Gordon missed my lineup despite earning the most Fantasy Live points of any driver over the past five Pocono races. As a consolation prize, we will use Gordon’s numbers to further illustrate the points per dollar formula.

JEFF GORDON AT POCONO

• Average finish position last five Pocono races: 5.8 equals 38.2 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 8.2 equals 8.2 points per race
• Laps led: 80 equals 8 points per race
• Fast laps: 63 laps equals 6.3 points per race
• Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 60.7
• Fantasy Live salary cap number: $26.75
• Points per dollar: 60.7 / 26.75 = 2.27 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar figure for each driver in the series. This week’s recommended picks are highlighted in bold. We will use the 2015 for all rookie drivers with no track history. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Jeff Gordon 2.27
• Ryan Newman 2.06
• Brad Keselowski 1.98
• Jimmie Johnson 1.90
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.78
• Kurt Busch 1.42
• Jamie McMurray 1.37
• Kevin Harvick 1.19
• Joey Logano 1.06
• Denny Hamlin 0.66
• Kyle Busch 0.52
• Matt Kenseth 0.33

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 1.66
• Kasey Kahne 1.65
• Kyle Larson 1.54
• Martin Truex 1.35
• Aric Almirola 0.72
• Carl Edwards 0.70
• Paul Menard 0.38

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Tony Stewart 2.33
• Sam Hornish Jr. 2.07
• Greg Biffle 2.06
• AJ Allmendinger 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Cole Whitt 2.95
• Justin Allgaier 2.48
• David Ragan 2.46
• Casey Mears 2.00
• Josh Wise 1.87
• JJ Yeley 1.57
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.47
• Landon Cassill 1.12
• Danica Patrick 0.07

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Michael Annett 6.00
• Ty Dillon 2.84*
• Alex Bowman 2.38
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.24*
• Brendan Gaughan 2.00*
• Jeb Burton 1.33*
• Travis Kvapil n/a

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.