Fantasy NASCAR Blog

Another dramatic race is in the books as we head to championship weekend. Congratulations to Matt Kenseth on winning his first race of the season in what might be his last season in the sport. Chase Elliott came oh so close once again and almost made the championship race in his rookie season. Denny Hamlin has nothing to complain about with the way Chase raced him on Sunday. Hamlin did the same exact thing to Chase at Martinsville and he got back what he dished out first.

FORD ECOBOOST 400

So, we head to Homestead-Miami Speedway, where Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski will fight for a championship. This is another of the mile-and-a-half tracks on the circuit and is very similar to the Las Vegas Speedway with its variable banking in the corners. This is going to be another fun race to watch no matter if your favorite driver is in contention or not. Hopefully none of the contenders have mechanical issues that take them out of this race and we all get to see great racing to the checkered flag and the crowning of this year’s champion.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has to be the odds on favorite to win the championship this season because of the way he has run on these mile-and-a-half tracks. He has won six races on these tracks this year including the race at Las Vegas. That doesn’t mean no one else has a chance this weekend. It just means none of the other contenders can make any mistakes is they want to beat Martin. On the other hand, Martin hasn’t had a top ten finish here the last three years, but he does have seven top ten finishes in his twelve career starts at this track.

Kevin Harvick: I didn’t think Kevin could do it this year as the team seemed to have lost some speed on this type of track. That is until he won the race at Texas a couple of weeks ago. Now I think he has a better shot than Kyle Busch to win the second championship of his career. He is probably the most consistent driver here with eight top five and fourteen top ten finishes in sixteen starts. I think it is going to come down to Kevin and Martin this week.

Kyle Busch: Let’s not count out Kyle. He has four top ten finishes in his last five races here including his win two years ago for his first championship. That tells you this guy knows how to get around this track too. The question for this team seems to be if they can make the right adjustments to the car with the changing track conditions and if they can avoid costly mistakes on pit road. Kyle also needs to have a little patience early in the race so he can stay in the hunt towards the end.

Brad Keselowski: Right now I give Brad the smallest chance to pull this off. He and teammate Joey Logano just haven’t shown they have the speed it takes to win races on the intermediate tracks towards the end of this season. However, if you look at what Ryan Blaney has done this season, he has shown that there is speed in these engines on these tracks and Ryan runs the same engine as the Penske teams as they have formed an alliance together this year. And, Brad has finished in the top six in three of his last four races and started in the top five in five of his last six starts here.

Chase Elliott: I still think Chase has a shot to win a race this year, and that means he has to win this weekend. This team has come so close so many times and when they do win their first race they might go on a tear. Chase finished eleventh in his only start at this track last year and would love nothing more than to win in his final race of the season and build up some momentum and confidence for next season.

Kyle Larson: Four straight DNF’s doesn’t look very good for this team as the season comes to a close. He had one of the fastest cars at Phoenix once again last weekend and then he lost another engine less than halfway through that race. Still, if you have a start left with him don’t be afraid to use it. Kyle has finished in the top five in his last two starts including a runner-up finish here last year. Maybe they are doing some engine testing for next year, but you can’t really worry about that if he is one of your best choices you have left.

Denny Hamlin: Denny’s season isn’t going to end the way he was hoping it would, but he could still win another race and think about what might have been. He has two career wins at this track and has finished in the top ten in his last four starts here. This team has really come on at the right time this year and all he needed to do was let Chase get by him last weekend and he would be in the championship. But, at the time he thought Chase might win the race if he let him by and then he would have been out anyway.

Matt Kenseth: If Matt can win back to back races at the end of this year he might not take a hiatus from the sport next year. I’m sure if he wins another race someone with a top tier team is going to try and sign him to a contract as he is still one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit. Matt has one win and nine top ten finishes in his seventeen starts at this track and will run this race like it is the last of his career.

Ryan Blaney: Ryan just didn’t have a car with long run potential last weekend at Phoenix which is what he would have needed to win that race and get himself into the championship. However, as I stated before, Ryan has been fast on the intermediate tracks all season and this is another of those places where he should be able to run towards the front for most of the race. He hasn’t run the best here in his first two starts, but he is getting better and so is this team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come away with another top five finish on the year.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
• Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Ty Dillon
• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Kevin Harvick
3. Kyle Busch
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Chase Elliott

Dark Horse: Ryan Blaney

Stay Away From: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Big 18: Daniel Suarez

Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. have both qualified for the championship race at Homestead-Miami in two weeks due to the face of Kevin winning the race at Texas and Martin having enough points that no one will be able to overtake him in next week’s race at Phoenix. That leaves one spot open for the remaining five drivers to fight for. Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott need to win the race to move on and I think we are going to see a lot of aggressive driving coming up in this week’s race.

CAN-AM 500

The last race before the championship race will be held at the Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, AZ. This is a one-mile fairly flat track. This will be a 500 km race, or about 312 miles. Can one of the five remaining drivers win this race and knock out the other hopefuls, or will we have a couple of drivers make the championship race on points?

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has eight wins at this track to lead all drivers here. He has also won six of the last ten races run here after the track was reconfigured and he will want to do everything he can to keep the likes of Jimmie Johnson out of the championship race. I think Kevin will get back to his winning ways here this weekend and give himself a lot of momentum as he heads to Homestead in search of his second championship.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is second among all active drivers with four wins at this track. He needs to win this weekend if he wants to have a shot at winning his eighth championship. This team hasn’t been on the top of their game this season during the playoffs and it is going to be hard for them to come away with the win this weekend. Jimmie hasn’t run as consistent here as he did before the track was reconfigured and I don’t think he is going to make the championship race.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is usually very good at Phoenix and he has run well lately on all types of tracks. I think this is one of his favorite tracks on the circuit and I think he is going to have another strong run this weekend. A win here will go a long way towards getting him resigned with Stewart-Haas Racing. I see him coming away with a top five finish this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny had a shot to win at Martinsville a couple of weeks ago and this track is similar in its layout. Denny will try to do everything in his power to get the win here so he doesn’t have to worry about racing his way into the championship on points. Any of the other four drivers win this race and Denny is out no matter how many points he has racked up. A second place finish here might not be enough to get him into the championship race.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is already locked into the championship race, but like the rest of those already in, Kyle is going to do everything he can to keep the likes of Jimmie Johnson out of the championship race. I think this is going to be one of the best championship races since the new playoff format started. Kyle has one win and sixteen top ten finishes in his twenty-four starts at this track.

Chase Elliott: Chase came oh so close once again at Martinsville a few weeks ago and a win here would get him into the championship race. That is a lot of pressure to put on a rookie who is still looking to win his first race in the series, but I think he can do it. He should have a lot of confidence heading into the weekend because of how well he ran at Martinsville and he just might pull off the upset here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has three wins at Phoenix in his career. He has run better lately other than having a mechanical issue at Texas last weekend. I look for him to run well here once again this weekend and maybe get himself in position to win one more race before he retires at the end of the season. I know there are going to be a lot of fans pulling for him in these next two weeks.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has three straight DNF’s. I think that comes to an end this weekend and he comes away with a top ten finish at Phoenix. This is the type of track where he will be at his best and he can relax a little bit. This team is looking to get a little momentum going into the off season so they can come back with a good attitude and a lot of confidence next year.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is going to do everything he can to pick up a win this weekend and propel himself into the championship race. This team has struggled a little bit lately with something always seeming to happen to them early in a race and then they have to spend the majority of the race trying to get back in contention. I think they will run well this weekend and have themselves in a position to battle for the win late in the race.

Ryan Newman: Ryan won the race here this spring which got him into the playoffs. He has two wins and ten top five finishes in thirty career starts at this track. They haven’t really run well lately, but he is someone you might want to take a chance on this week if you are looking to make up some ground in your league.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Kevin Harvick
• Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Kurt Busch
• Kyle Larson
• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Newman

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Daniel Suarez
• Michael McDowell

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

1. Kevin Harvick
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kurt Busch
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Chase Elliott

Stay Away From: Trevor Bayne

Big 18: Kevin Harvick

Kyle Busch is the first driver to guarantee himself a shot at the championship this season after winning a hard fought race in Martinsville this past weekend. Once again, Chase Elliott had a great chance to win his first ever race in this series, but was caught up in a late race accident and denied that coveted first win and more importantly a free pass to Homestead. Now he finds himself in a position where he almost has to win one of the next two races to make the championship.

AAA TEXAS 500

This week the series heads to the Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the AAA Texas 500. This is another of the mile-and-a-half tracks that make up the majority of the playoffs. This is one of the fastest tracks on the circuit and the 500-mile race could have motor implications although we haven’t seen a lot of that this year from any of the teams. You will definitely see the intensity pick up in these next two races as seven drivers compete for the final three spots in the championship race at Homestead.

Martin Truex Jr.: I have to stick with Martin on these intermediate tracks. This team even came away with a second place finish at Martinsville last week and they are going to be tough to knock out of the final race because of their huge point lead they accumulated with all of the playoff points they won during the last thirty-three races. Martin has finished in the top ten in his last five Texas races and has to be the odds on favorite to win here once again.

Jimmie Johnson: Once again Jimmie struggled at Martinsville last weekend at a track where he has already won nine times. He spun out during qualifying and had to start at the rear of the field after changing tires after qualifying. He then made his way to the front on pit strategy, but couldn’t stay there for long and had what he would say was a terrible finish. However, Jimmie has won three of the past five races at this track which should give this team something to look back on and give them some confidence going into this race.

Chase Elliott: I will say it once again. Chase will win a race yet this season and this might be the weekend he does it. He has only run three Cup races here, but he has two top five and three top ten finishes in those races. This team has come too close too many times to not believe they are capable of winning races in this series and he has been very good on the mile-and-a-half tracks this season, especially during the playoffs.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has nothing to gain in the next two races, but that won’t keep him from trying to win them all. He has battled Truex in almost every one of the races on these tracks throughout the season and now he can even take more chances on the track and with pit strategy to see if he can beat him. Kyle is one of the best drivers in this series and will not let anything keep him from trying to win the race this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin hasn’t shown the speed this season that he has in the past, but he has been very good at Texas the past few seasons. In his last five starts he has come away with three top five finishes, with two of those being runner-up finishes and five top ten finishes. This team knows they need another good finish here and hopefully a win even with Phoenix coming up where they have dominated the past few seasons. Still they don’t want to rely on getting in on points.

Brad Keselowski: Brad thought his best chance at getting a win in this round was at Martinsville last weekend. He almost did just that as he ran towards the front of the pack most of the race. This team doesn’t think they have the speed it will take to win this week at Texas, but I wouldn’t count them out. Brad has two top five and three top ten finishes in his last five starts here and has led more laps than any other driver in those five races. That tells me they might know something they don’t want the competition to know.

Ryan Blaney: This team has been impressive all year and definitely on the intermediate tracks. Ryan led 148 laps here in the spring race before coming away with a twelfth place finish in that race. This team knows they have the speed to get the job done here and just has to make sure to keep up with the changing track conditions and not make any mistakes on pit road to put themselves in position to come away with another win this season.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: We haven’t talked about Dale much this season as he never really lived up to expectations. However, he has been running much better since the playoffs started and this is one of the tracks he has been very good on lately. He has finished in the top six in each of his last five starts at this track including a fifth place finish this spring. He could surprise a lot of people who have written him off as he finishes up his full-time career in the next three races.

Joey Logano: Joey is another driver most people have written off this season. He might be someone you might want to take a look at if you are trying to come from behind in your league and are ready to take drivers no one at the top of your league is looking at. Joey has finished in the top four here in four of his last five races. I don’t care how bad a driver has looked, when he has stats like this you have to consider having him on your team, especially if you are behind in your league.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is another driver who hasn’t won a race yet this season and is not on a lot of peoples radar right now. Matt has always run well on the mile-and-a-half tracks and should have a decent car once again. If caution flags fall right for this team they could be another dark horse this week for those of you wanting to take some chances at this stage of the season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

• Martin Truex Jr.
• Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

• Chase Elliott
• Ryan Blaney
• Jamie McMurray
• Kasey Kahne

Yahoo Driver Group C

• Erik Jones
• Ty Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Chase Elliott
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Kyle Busch
5. Kevin Harvick

Dark Horse: Joey Logano

Stay Away From: Clint Bowyer

Big 18: Erik Jones