NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MICHIGAN, QUICKEN LOANS 400

I was glad to see Martin Truex Jr. and the #78 team pickup a win in the Pocono race last weekend, although this did not benefit me in Fantasy Live.

Like Pocono, there is not a driver who stands out in laps led over the last five races in Michigan. Several of the top drivers, however, have finished at the top of the standings consistently. I think the best strategy this week is to front-load your lineup with three of the top drivers and find value selections with the remaining two spots. This is not a necessary strategy, and Michigan is a opportunity for owners behind in the standings looking for an alternate lineup to gain back points. Michigan is a lower risk to swing for the fences than other tracks in the series because many drivers have seen success.

With an average finish position of 4.8 over the last five Michigan races, Kevin Harvick should be an easy choice for your lineup. Over the same time span, the best driver in the series in 2015 has the most Fantasy Live points per race. He also has a respectable 81% of his laps running in the top-15 and the best lap-to-lap performance data in the series. Over the long-term, Harvick has enjoyed nine top-10 finishes and 17 top-20 finishes. Based on the combination of 2015 success and historical success at MIS, Harvick has a high probability for success this week.

The next two picks for my lineups are Penske teammates who perform favorably in Michigan. Brad Keselowski is one of the most consistent drivers at Michigan. While he does not lead many laps, he is consistently running near the front of the field. Over the last five races at Michigan, Keselowski has spent a series-best 96% of his laps running in the top-15. Because he only has 40 laps led, he is fifth in the series in Fantasy Live points per race. His long-term numbers are not impressive, but I think the #2 car will find enough speed to stay near the top this week.

Keselowski’s teammate, Joey Logano, has led the most laps of any driver in the last five Michigan races. With 80% of his races in the top-15 and an average finish position of 10.6, you can expect the #22 car to run near the front. Like Keselowski, Logano does not have long-term consistency at the track, but has found speed since switching over the Penske. There are a couple of more cost-effective options like Greg Biffle or Paul Menard to consider, but the price difference was not worth taking the best drivers with the top-3 spots on my roster. With his current success, I will keep on eye on Truex in qualifying and practice.

The drawback to front-loading my lineup is that there is very little salary cap room to work with for the final two spots. Cole Whitt has a 26th place average finish position in two Michigan races. He has worked his way through the field, and his +13 start-to-finish differential provides additional value. I’m not thrilled about the options for the fifth roster spot. With a 30th place average, I will tentatively go with Michael Annett. I will likely save this spot for a driver who qualifies near the back of the field and go for start-to-finish differential. Brendan Gaughan can provide value with only a $4.75 cap hit if he can make the field.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position and start-to-finish differential. Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format to manage the quality of drivers who find our rosters. Our formula calculate the amount of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Michigan races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide the most value. Greg Biffle is a top five driver at Michigan, but his inconsistency in 2015 scared me away from adding him to my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his Michigan data over the last five Michigan races to further illustrate the formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT MICHIGAN

• Average finish position last five Michigan races: 8.2 equals 35.8 points per race
• Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.2 equals 7.2 points per race
• Fast laps: 71 equals 7.1 points per race
• Laps led: 102 equals 10.2 points per race
• Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 60.3
• Salary cap figure: $19.75
• Fantasy points per dollar: 60.3 divided by 19.75 = 3.05 points per Fantasy Live Dollar

Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver in Michigan. This week’s recommended picks are highlighted in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for rookie drivers with no track history. Good luck navigating through another week of your NASCAR lineup and feel free to discuss your lineup decisions in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Kevin Harvick 2.10
• Joey Logano 2.03
• Brad Keselowski 1.75
• Jeff Gordon 1.36
• Jimmie Johnson 1.29
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.25
• Jamie McMurray 1.16
• Denny Hamlin 0.96
• Matt Kenseth 0.88
• Kurt Busch 0.85
• Kyle Busch 0.36

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 2.20
• Paul Menard 1.92
• Ryan Newman 1.72
• Kasey Kahne 1.53
• Carl Edwards 1.38
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.06
• Aric Almirola 0.93
• Kyle Larson 0.35

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Greg Biffle 3.05
• AJ Allmendinger 2.09
• Tony Stewart 1.79
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.52
• Austin Dillon 1.36
• Ryan Blaney 0.07*

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• Sam Hornish Jr. 3.08
• Cole Whitt 2.93
• Danica Patrick 2.54
• David Gilliland 2.12
• David Ragan 1.99
• Casey Mears 1.94
• Trevor Bayne 1.28
• Justin Allgaier 0.29

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Brandan Gaughan 3.58
• Ty Dillon 3.27*
• Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
• Michael Annett 3.17
• Brett Moffitt 2.67*
• JJ Yeley 2.61*
• Mike Bliss 2.43*
• JJ Yeley 2.23
• Josh Wise 2.08*
• Landon Cassill 2.02
• Alex Bowman 1.93
• Jeb Burton 1.80*
• Josh Wise 1.38
• Brett Moffitt 1.27
• Mike Bliss 0.87

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.