Last week, Fantasy Live was separated into two groups: those who started Brad Keselowski and those who did not start Brad Keselowski. The dominating effort prevented drivers from sneaking into the Chase with a win. The playoff lineup is set at Chicago, and we get the see the drivers in the new playoff format for the first time. There was only one driver I liked this week, and the other four roster spots were designated to two top drivers and two bottom feeders. My recommendation, like most weeks, is to pick your three favorite drivers and fill your last two spots with the best drivers available.
My favorite driver this week has almost triple the amount of laps led over the last five years compared to the second-best driver in this category. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has an average running position of 7.1 and has run in the top 15 for 87% of his laps. Johnson has finished in the top 10 for seven of his last nine races. As long as he does not have a tire issue, I like Jimmie Johnson as a top driver this week.
After watching Brad Keselowski drive lap after lap in first place at Richmond, my subconscious is making him my second pick. Keselowski has a fourth place average finish position at the track over the past three years. Since 2005, Keselowski has the seventh-most laps led and fast laps. These numbers are not great, but Brad Keselowski with an average track history in 2014 still has a high probability for success. The third selection for my roster has led the second-most laps over the last five years and has now won a race in 2014. Matt Kenseth has been steady with an average running position of 10.3 and 72% of his laps in the top 15.
With three of the highest salary cap drivers on my roster, there is little cap room for the remaining two drivers. Reed Sorenson has an average running position of 24.7 and has recently led 6 laps at the track. He gets a slight edge over Landon Cassill, who only has a 31st place average finish at the track. With limited salary cap funds available, the fifth slot will go to Michael Annett. With a 28th place average finish in 2014, Annett does not need too much to provide value.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply selecting the top drivers every week, the website uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of fantasy live points over the past five years divided by the driver’s salary cap figure. The final number gives us an idea how many fantasy live points to expect from each salary cap dollar. Tony Stewart has great track data at Chicago, but is still a risky pick. Because he is the odd man out on my roster, we will use his Chicago data to illustrate our formula.
TONY STEWART AT CHICAGOLAND
- Total laps led last five years at Chicago: 4 laps equals 0.4 points per race
- Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
- Average finish position: 5th place average equals 39 fantasy live points per race
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 18 equals 18 fantasy live points per race
- Total points per race: 57.4
- Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure $22.25
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 57.4 divides by 22.25 equals 2.58 fantasy live points per race
Please see each driver’s fantasy points per dollar below. We will use the 2014 history for rookie drivers with no historical data at Chicago to give you an idea what to expect from them. This week’s suggested picks are in bold.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jimmie Johnson 2.49
- Clint Bowyer 1.68
- Kasey Kahne 1.67
- Matt Kenseth 1.57
- Kevin Harvick 1.57
- Brad Keselowski 1.55
- Carl Edwards 1.49
- Kyle Busch 1.45
- Kurt Busch 1.40
- Jeff Gordon 1.25
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.90
- Joey Logano 0.79
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.58
- Ryan Newman 1.65
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.63
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.61
- Austin Dillon 1.38
- Kyle Larson 1.23
- Jamie McMurray 1.13
- Aric Almirola 1.09
- Marcus Ambrose 1.06
- Denny Hamlin 0.97
- Brian Vickers 0.80
- Paul Menard 0.70
- Greg Biffle 0.45
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Danica Patrick 1.90
- Justin Allgaier 1.73
- AJ Allmendinger 1.26
- Casey Mears 0.65
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- David Ragan 2.76
- Cole Whitt 1.58
- David Gilliland 1.33
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 2.38
- Landon Cassill 1.87
- Alex Bowman 1.53
- Reed Sorenson 0.97