Category: Fantasy NASCAR

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Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Michigan International Speedway, Quicken Loans 400

The stars are starting to shine as we get closer to the start of the Chase. Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr on getting his second win of the season and first of his career at Pocono. Winning at a track you have never won at before makes you a legitimate contender to win a championship with the new rules this year. This just shows that this team has a chance to win at tracks they haven’t won at yet.

This week the series heads to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Quicken Loans 400. MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped oval with 18 degree banking in the turns. It is very similar to California Speedway in the configuration and I believe the biggest difference in these tracks is the weather. Not a real big deal in racing, so those who are good at one of these tracks is usually good at the other.

QUICKEN LOANS 400

Greg Biffle: I am going to go out on a sturdy limb and predict that Greg gets his first victory of the season. He has won two of the past four races at this track and that is why I say the limb is sturdy. I believe that this is Greg’s favorite track to run on and that gives a driver an advantage heading into the weekend. He also has six top five finishes in his last eleven starts at this track, so he is a good pick to start no matter what.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin finished second in the last two race run here and the way he has been running this season I believe he will have a contending car once again. This team has had a great car every weekend and is a legitimate contender in Kevin’s first year with Stewart/Haas Racing. This team is ready to go every week this year.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has finished in the top ten in his last three starts here.. This team already has a win on the season, but they would like to win another race heading int;o the Chase to prove that they can run well on a consistent basis.

Tony Stewart: Smoke has had a pretty rough season so far, but the weather is warming up and he is feeling better every week. He has finished in the top ten at Michigan in six of his last seven races and knows that he has a car as good as Kevin Harvick under the hood every week I look for him to content this weekend and for the remainder of the season on a weekly basis.

Jimmie Johnson: I can’t talk about California and Michigan without mentioning Jimmie. He has won two of the last three races run this season and is always good at both of the aforementioned tracks. He has also lead laps in the last three races at this track, but lost engines in two of those races. I wouldn’t worry too much about the engines this week though.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has always been a terror at Michigan and California, and even though he is still in second place in the standings I know he would love to get a win very soon. I think this team needs to go back to the basics and not worry so much about what might or might not happen during the race and just race. Then they will be good to go.

Clint Bowyer: This is another team that has been very disappointed with themselves so far this year. but they have always been very good at Michigan. Clint has finished in the top ten here in his last six starts and just needs to have things go right throughout the day. His pit crew needs to be better and then he will be a contender late in this race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won two races at this track, including a win here two years ago. Last year he struggled here, blowing an engine in the spring race and losing a bunch of laps in the fall race. This team isn’t worried about those things this season and will be looking back at the win they had two years ago as they head into this weekend’s race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Grag Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Juan Pablo Montoya
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Greg Biffle
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

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Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Pocono Raceway, Pocono 400

Jimmie Johnson pulled off his second win in a row and Matt Kenseth, without a win yet this season, took over the point standings with a third place finish. So, now we are half-way to the Chase, we have ten different winners and the driver that is leading the standings doesn’t have a win yet.

Next week the series heads to Pocono Raceway for the running of the Pocono 400. Pocono is a two and a half mile flat track with only three turns. In other words it looks like a triangle and every corner is different for the drivers. In my opinion the races at Pocono are quite boring, but that is just my opinion.

POCONO 400

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is my pick to win this week at Pocono. He has always run well here throughout his career, winning six races and finishing in the top five in almost half of the races he has run here. Jeff won this race in the fall of 2012 and finished second here last fall. He is very consistent and is having a great year, having good cars every week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is on a roll and when he gets on a roll he is tough to beat. He won this race last season and finished and has finished in the top five here in four of his last six races and hasn’t finished outside of the top fifteen since 2007. This team looks like they have things figured out right now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has four straight top ten finishes here and had a good run at Dover last weekend. Tony has been inconsistent so far this year, but he has been that way in the past. I think he is still recovering from the broken leg he suffered last season and is going to start running better every week as we get further into the season.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has been very consistent all season and even though he has never been great at Pocono, I believe that this year will be different for this team. They are very confident week in and week out this year and will have another good run once again this weekend.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has had an up and down season so far this year, but he has always run well at Pocono. He has won four races in sixteen starts and has finished in the top five in half of those starts also. This could be the place where Denny picks up his second win of the season.

Kurt Busch: Here is a team that has been struggling lately, but this could be the week that they turn things around. Kurt has two wins at this track and has finished in the top five in forty percent of his career starts. That includes three top five finishes in his last five starts.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although Dale has never won a race at this track he is very consistent here. He has finished in the top ten in five of his last six starts here and has run well all season. This team would like to get another victory soon and a win here would really boost their confidence.

Carl Edwards: Carl is another driver that has always run well at Pocono. He has two wins to his credit and seems to excel on the flat tracks like Pocono. They already have a win that should get them into the Chase, but they would like to become a little more consistent and be able to compete for the win on a weekly basis.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has one win here and has finished no worse than twenty-third in his eight starts at this track. He has finished in the top six in three of his last five starts at Pocono and knows how to get around this track. This is the type of track that this team could pick up their second win of the season at.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR POCONO RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Carl Edwards
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT POCONO RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Tony Stewart
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Dover International Speedway, FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks

We are a third of the way through the 2014 season and Jimmie Johnson just became the tenth driver to win a race this year. There are a few notable drivers who don’t have a win yet this season including, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne just to name a few. Will NASCAR get six more winners in the next fourteen races to fill all of the Chase spots?

This week the series heads to Dover International Speedway which is one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. DIS is a one-mile concrete oval with twenty-four degrees of banking in the corners. Qualifying means a lot at this track as sixty-eight of the eighty-eight race winners have started in the top ten. You don’t want to start towards the back and get lapped early in the race because of an ill handling car.

FEDEX 400 BENEFITING AUTISM SPEAKS

Jimmie Johnson: Now that Jimmie has a win under his belt he might just win a bunch of races in the coming weeks. He has more wins than any other driver, eight, at this track and won the race here last fall. I am picking him to get his second straight win of the year this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint is one of the drivers still looking for his first win of the season and Dover is a good place for him to get it. Clint has finished in the top ten in his last six starts at this track and would like nothing better than to have a great run and get himself qualified for the Chase this weekend. He will need to do a better job of qualifying to have a legitimate shot at heading to victory lane though.

Joey Logano: Joey has four straight top ten finishes at Dover. The big problem for him here is that he has lead only one lap in the ten races he has run at this track. He needs to have a dominant car right from the beginning of the race so that he can stay up front. As I said before, if you start in the back it doesn’t bode well for a good finishing position.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff still leads the point standings and has always been good at Dover. He has four career wins here and has finished in the top five in his last three starts at Dover. This team wants to get another win and improve on their lead as we get closer to the Chase. Jimmie is the only active driver to lead more laps at Dover than Jeff.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eight starts. This is the type of track that Kyle loves to run on. The high banking in the corners gives him the option of passing high or low as he always has a great handling car at Dover.

Tony Stewart: Tony won this race last year, but he only lead a total of three laps in that race. Early in his career he was one of the dominant drivers at Dover each time he ran here. Lately he has struggle mightily here, only leading nine laps in his last eighteen starts. This team needs to shake things up a bit, because Tony has the same equipment that Kevin Harvick has and he should be able to run just as well every week.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has finished in the top ten in nineteen of thirty races he has run at Dover, including two wins. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid mechanical failures early in the race he will be in contention at the end of the race. There are still fourteen races before the start of the Chase, but this team would like to get their first win of the season as soon as possible.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has had a fast car each and every week this season. Although he has never won a Sprint Cup race at Dover he has finished in the top ten in six of his last eight starts there. The way this team has been running all year I wouldn’t put it past Kevin to pick up his first career victory here this weekend.

Greg Biffle: Greg is another driver who is chomping at the bit to visit victory lane for the first time this season. He has won here before and always seems to have a good car during practices and qualifying. he just needs a little luck to stay out of harms way early in the race and make the right adjustments at the end to give him a shot at the checkered flag.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale finished second to Jimmie Johnson last September at Dover and has a win to his credit at this track. This team is looking to rebound from a mechanical failure last week in Charlotte. It is imperative that they qualify well this week and keep up on their adjustments as the track changes during the race. Do that, stay out of trouble early, and you have a shot at the win.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Greg Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Clint Bowyer
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

Congratulations to Jamie McMurray on winning the Sprint All-Star race this past weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

This is the track the drivers will take to over the Memorial Day weekend, but first and foremost I would like to take this time to remember all of the men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice to keep our nation free and let us live the lives we live each and every day. Thank you to everyone that has ever served in the armed forces!

NOW COMES THE TRUE TEST

The race this week is going to test man and machine alike.

A 600-mile race will take its toll on engines, tires, and the mental focus of the drivers and crews. The All-Star race was run in segments. The Coca-Cola 600 will be run without any delays if mother nature allows it to, so everyone needs to be ready for a long afternoon and evening. Those who are fast early in the race will need to make adjustments later as the track conditions change, and those not so fast early will need to be patient as they will have plenty of time to get their cars running the way they would like them at the end of the race.

COCA-COLA 600

Kasey Kahne: I am picking Kasey to win the race this weekend. He had an awesomely fast car during the All-Star race, as did all of the Hendrick drivers, which is the first reason I am picking him. He has also finished first or second in each of the last three points races he has run at this track. Kasey needs to be patient early in the race and make sure he is around at the end to claim the victory.

Kevin Harvick: I am not forgetting about Kevin who has had a fast car every week this season. The only question I have is whether the machine will hold up for the 600-mile race. The Stewart-Haas teams have had a multitude of mechanical failures during the season and this will be the longest race they run all year. Kevin will be fast, but will the mechanical side hold up?

Jeff Gordon: Jeff sits on the top of the standings and has been competitive all year. Like I said, all of the Hendrick cars were fast on Saturday night and the engines in these cars seem to be able to handle the grueling task of a 600-mile race. Jeff knows that no matter how his car is handling at the beginning of the race, he will have to get the right adjustments to be able to contend at the end of the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Another of the Hendrick drivers who has been fast and competitive all season. I think the big thing for Dale in this race is to be patient. He can’t get too upset when his car doesn’t handle the best after making adjustments early in the race. Just do the best you can until the next time you stop and make further adjustments. You will all see comers and goers as the race progresses and the track changes from the start to the finish. The key is to have your best handling car at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Finally the last of the Hendrick drivers in the field this weekend. Jimmie is still looking for his first win of the season and this is the place that he would love to get that win. Charlotte Motor Speedway aka Lowe’s Motor Speedway is his self-proclaimed home track as it has the same sponsor as is on his car. Jimmie has won more points races here than any other active driver, so he knows how to get the job done in this race.


Matt Kenseth: Matt is always a patient driver and that really helps the longer the races are. He also knows how the track will change and gives excellent feed back to his crew chief during the race. This helps Jason Ratcliff determine what adjustments he wants to make to the car when they pit. I think these two work as well together as Jimmie and Chad do when it comes to communications and making the correct decisions.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has finished in the top ten in seven straight points races at Charlotte and had a fast car during both practice and the race last weekend. This team is still confident after getting the win at Talladega a few weeks ago and this is one of the tracks they always run well at. Denny knows not to get upset early in this race and has the patience to keep his car in good shape for a run late in the race.

Carl Edwards: Carl has yet to win a points race at this track, but he has five straight top ten finished here. He was another driver with a very fast car on Saturday night and the Roush/Fenway engines seem to hold up well over the longer races. This season Carl seems to be one of the drivers you don’t hear much about until late in the race when he gets his car dialed in and starts to make himself known at the front of the pack.

Greg Biffle: Greg had a very fast car last weekend also. He has the mentality to keep his focus over the long haul and can drive with the best of them. He is one of the drivers that can stay on the lead lap with an ill handling car until he can get in the pits and make adjustments to get the handling better. I can’t stress enough how much the track will change this weekend as we go from afternoon to evening. The track temperature will cool down considerably from the start of the race to the end and that really affects the handling.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. I think the biggest issue with Kyle is his patience in this long race. He always wants to be up front and race everyone hard. You need to take this race like a restrictor plate race. Keep yourself out of trouble, don’t take unnecessary chances early in the race and maintain your equipment so you can make the run late in the race. He just needs to remind himself of this early next week and he will be fine once again.

Check back later this week for possible changes to the Yahoo C group once the entry list is made available.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Trevor Bayne
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour Energy 400

Clint Bowyer #15 Boston Marathon

The unpredictable nature of Talladega took a heavy toll on last week’s salary cap picks for Talladega Superspeedway. Four of the five choices did not finish due to accidents and mechanical difficulties. Sometimes all the data points to an expected outcome, and the results are significantly different than expected. This reality is what makes us love and hate fantasy racing.

The results from Kansas will likely improve from last week as Kansas is one of the more predictable races in the NASCAR schedule.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

MATT KENSETH AT KANSAS

Matt Kenseth’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Matt Kenseth total laps led last 3 spring races: 165
  • Laps led per race: 55
  • Nascar.com laps led points per race: 27.5 (1 point for every 2 laps led)
  • Starting position to finish position differential: 9
  • Average finish: 3rd place (41 points)
  • Total points per race: 77.5
  • Nascar.com salary cap value: $28.25
  • Kansas points per salary cap dollar: 77.5/28.25 = 2.74 points per dollar

KANSAS SPEEDWAY SALARY CAP DARKHORSE

Of the major drivers, the one with the highest points per fantasy dollar is Martin Truex Jr. with 3.28. With 219 laps led over the last two years, Martin has experienced success at this type of track. The general inconsistency of the Furniture Row team is cause for concern, but the upside makes Martin Truex Jr. a viable option.

THE MORE CONSISTENT DRIVERS

Matt Kenseth (see statistical details above) has averaged a top four finish at Kansas over the last three spring races. Jimmie Johnson has been nearly as consistent here without as many laps led. Kansas could be the track where the 48 car leads half the race on its way to victory. There seems to be a hex over this team in 2014, which may be the direct result of the overplayed Lowe’s “boom confetti” commercial. Hopefully, they shake off the bad luck soon.

Other drivers with more than two points per dollar include Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. Feel free to use any of these drivers as your picks.

With results at this track leaning towards predictable finishes, the value choices at the bottom of the salary cap are slim. Reed Sorensen passed 14 cars last race and has the highest points per dollar of any driver this week (4.44). Justin Allgaier has been emerging as the third-best rookie over the last few weeks. With 1.6 points per fantasy dollar in 2014, he has better value in salary cap terms than his rookie counterparts Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 4.44 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Martin Treux Jr. 3.28
  • Matt Kenseth 2.74
  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.19
  • Brad Keselowski 2.18
  • Josh Wise 2.13
  • Kurt Busch 2.12

Worst Value Picks

  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.22) (points per fantasy dollar)
  • AJ Allmendinger (-0.05)
  • Joey Logano 0.11
  • Brian Vickers 0.32
  • Kyle Busch 0.60
  • Casey Mears 0.74
  • Clint Bowyer 0.77

Notable Drivers

  • Kasey Kahne 1.82 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.69
  • Tony Stewart 1.61
  • Carl Edwards 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.38
  • Kevin Harvick 1.31
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Paul Menard 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.97

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth $28.25
  2. Jimmie Johnson $27.25
  3. Martin Truex Jr. $21.50
  4. Justin Allgaier $16.25
  5. Reed Sorensen $6.75