Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Chicagoland Speedway, MyAFibStory.com 400

The field for the Chase is set with the Challenger round beginning next week at Chicagoland Speedway. Brad Keselowski leads the pack by virtue of his four wins this season after last weekend’s victory at Richmond. A race that Brad dominated, leading 383 of the 400 laps. Each driver is given three bonus points for each win they acquired during the first twenty-six races this season as they enter the Chase.

The rules of the new Chase format are pretty simple. The Chase is separated into four stages. The Challenger round, the Contender round, the Eliminator round, and the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship round. The first three stages are each three races long, while the last race of the season will determine this year’s champion. Win and you automatically move on to the next round, the four drivers with the lowest point totals and no wins will be eliminated. An accident, mechanical failure, or mistake on pit road by driver, crew-chief, or pit crew member could eliminate a driver.

MYAFIBSTORY.COM 400

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is my pick to win the championship this season and I think he starts out the Chase with his fourth victory of the season and automatically qualifies for the next round of the Chase. He has two wins at Chicagoland and has been very fast all season. I think he runs as well as he did at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but avoids the disaster he found at the end of that race.

Jeff Gordon: I think Jeff is the next best contender of the Chase field. Jeff has been very consistent on all types of tracks this season and won three races so far. He also has a win at Chicagoland Speedway and has shown a lot of speed on this type of track. Jeff has won four championships in his career, but none of those have come under the Chase format.

Joey Logano: Both Joey and Brad Keselowski have had great seasons. I believe Joey has been better than Brad on the intermediate tracks though and I think he will have another great car once again this weekend. This team has won three races already this season and they have the confidence that they can compete for the championship this year.

Brad Keselowski: Brad leads the series in victories, so that gives him a three point lead heading into the Chase. This team has had a fast car all season and should easily make it into the second round as long as they don’t have a disaster on the track. They haven’t really had many tire issues or engine issues all year and that eliminates that issue from a drivers mind.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget about the six time champion as we head into the Chase. This team hasn’t been on the top of their game much of the season, but they know how to win championships. They have run a little better over the past five or six races and just need to find a little more to get back to their winning ways. While Jimmie has never won a race at Chicagoland, he has finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here. That alone gives them confidence heading to this track this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is currently in the final spot of the Chase by virtue of the tiebreaker of how many top five finishes he has had on the season. This means virtually nothing as the Chase starts and I think Ryan has the mindset not to worry about things like that anyway. Ryan has won a race at this track and has finished in the top ten in eight of his twelve starts here. This is a sleeper team to watch right now.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won a race here and has run very well on the intermediate tracks all season. They need to make one more adjustment that will help them to win one of these races seeing there are so many of them in the Chase. I think this team has a chance at winning a championship this season, but I think they are going to have to win at least one more race to do it.

Tony Stewart: Tony leads all drivers with three wins at this track. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here and only Jimmie Johnson has lead more laps at Chicagoland than Tony over their careers. Tony is my dark horse to win this race and get his team on the right track for next season.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won the race at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and that victory propelled him into the Chase. The track at Chicago is very similar to the Atlanta track, so this team should come with a good setup already under their car. They are going to need to win races to stay in contention because they haven’t been consistent enough to keep making it through the elimination rounds without wins.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won the first two races of the Chase last season including the race at Chicago. This is the closest track to Matt’s hometown of Cambridge, Wisconsin and he would love to get another victory to move himself into the next round and make his local fans very happy. I think this team is consistent enough and can start winning races during the Chase to be serious contenders for the championship.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Ryan Newman
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Carl Edwards

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Richmond, Federated Auto Parts 400

Due to an unfortunate crash late in the race, Kevin Harvick had a 19th place finish and a 1st place fantasy live finish at Atlanta. One positive aspect of the Fantasy Live points system is that dominant performers with bad luck are still rewarded. I was able to see Kasey Kahne’s first victory of the season in person, and my ears are still ringing as I write this article. Richmond is the last chance to punch a ticket to the Chase for the twenty-seven teams on the outside looking in. Richmond is also a short track. From a Fantasy Live perspective, this translates to a scoring system that will benefit the best cars more than average. This week, you need to focus on three top drivers and fill the remaining two roster spots with the best value drivers remaining.

Some weeks are challenging to find the three top drivers who stand out statistically at a race. This week, however, three drivers jumped out as the best options. Since 2005, three drivers have combined to lead 3,342 laps! Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick are at the top three drivers for most historical statistics at Richmond. All three competitors have a high probability for success.

Harvick was dialed in last week, and his pit crew let him down throughout the race. At Richmond, he has run in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and maintains an average running position of 7.8. He is third for all drivers in laps led, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. His average finish position of 8.8 since 2005 is second in the series. When track data combines with a successful 2014 campaign, there is s high probability for success.

Although he has been slightly inconsistent at Richmond for the last three years with a `16th place average finish position, Denny Hamlin is a must start. Denny has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September races. This statistic is worth repeating for emphasis: Denny Hamlin has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September starts. With 1390 laps led since 2005, Hamlin is 459 laps more than the second-best driver. Hamlin is also the best driver in the series in average running position, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. Hamlin’s upside is too high to ignored and should be in your lineup.

Jeff Gordon was a tempting choice due to his recent performance at the track, but Kyle Busch still gets the nod over Gordon this week. Since 2005, Kyle Busch has an average finish position of seventh and has finished in the top five an astounding thirteen times in the last nineteen Richmond races. Like Hamlin, Kyle Busch has run in the top 15 for 87% of his laps. He is second in the series in fast laps, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance. The biggest drawback with this pick is his overall 2014 performance, but I will place him in the third spot due to his consistency at Richmond.

The three drivers were easy to choose, and we need to complete the last two roster spots with value options. I was able to upgrade from Landon Cassill to David Ragan for one position. David Ragan has averaged a 24th place finish over the past five September races. David Gilliland has a 27th place average in the same time span. Neither number is impressive, but results is enough fantasy points per dollar to serve as adequate performers. I wanted to make a run at AJ Allmendinger this week, but there simply was not enough cap room to make the move I wanted.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. The salary cap format prevents us from simply selecting the best drivers every week. Our formula for fantasy live points per dollar simply averages a driver’s points over the last five races at the track and divides that number by the alary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Jeff Gordon has led the fourth-most laps since 2005 and was the odd man out for a roster spot. We will use his statistics to help clarify our formula.

JEFF GORDON AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five starts at Richmond: 5th place = 39 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 equals 4 fantasy live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Laps Led: 155 laps = 15.5 fantasy live points per race
  • Total points per race: 58.5
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 58.5 / $28 = 2.79 fantasy points per dollar

For rookies with no September history at the track, we will use their statistics from the race earlier this year at Richmond. These projections are also useful in choosing Yahoo lineups because the number take into account more data points than only the final position. See our fantasy live projections below with this week’s lineup in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.79
  • Carl Edwards 2.39
  • Kevin Harvick 2.30
  • Clint Bowyer 1.80
  • Kyle Busch 1.62
  • Brad Keselowski 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
  • Matt Kenseth 1.09
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.60
  • Kasey Kahne 0.60
  • Joey Logano 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 4.89
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.22
  • Tony Stewart 2.13
  • Ryan Newman 2.03
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.66
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.33
  • Paul Menard 0.88
  • Brian Vickers 0.85
  • Aric Almirola 0.71
  • Austin Dillon 0.71
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.65
  • Kyle Larson 0.60

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.20
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.83
  • Casey Mears 1.49
  • Danica Patrick 1.29

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 1.90
  • David Gilliland 1.80

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.21
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Reed Sorenson 1.14
  • Cole Whitt 0.37
  • Michael Annett 0.11
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Richmond International Raceway, Federated Auto Parts 400

And then there was one! Congratulation to Kasey Kahne on winning his first race of the season and qualifying for the Chase. Fourteen of the Chase spots have been locked in, but two are still open. Right now Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle sit in those spots with one to go. Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson are close enough in points to overtake either of those drivers by points, but we could still get another new winner on the season at Richmond which will eliminate another spot unless the driver is Matt Kenseth. Ryan has the best chance of making the Chase on points as of now, with a nineteen point lead on Greg, forty-two over Bowyer, and forty-three over Larson. One of these four drivers will get in on points no matter who wins the race and two of them can make it with a repeat winner or a Kenseth win. It looks like it will be another no holds barred race at Richmond this Saturday night.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Richmond International Raceway is a 3/4-mile D-shaped oval asphalt racetrack that is considered quite flat by NASCAR standards. Jeff Gordon set a track record here last year with a qualifying lap of 130.599 mph and I think that record might fall this weekend. This could be one of the most exciting races of the season, so try not to miss it.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this week at Richmond. He has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in well over half of his starts at this track. This team has been solid all season and would like to get that extra bonus point for wins heading into the Chase next week. Jeff lead the most laps in the spring race here on his way to a second place finish, which I think he will improve on this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: This is Brad’s type of track to race on. He loves the short, flat tracks and would like to build some momentum heading into the Chase. He has lead a lot of laps in the last two races at this track, so I think he has a good idea on how to make it around here quickly. If he can stay out of trouble early he should be in contention at the end of the race.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won four races at this track, has finished in the top five in thirteen of his nineteen starts, and finished third this spring here. He is by far the most consistent driver at this track and I would have picked him for the win, but lately he has been way too hot headed on the track. He needs to control his emotions if he really wants to have a chance at winning a championship. He is a great pick if you are trying to make a move in your fantasy league.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has three career wins at Richmond and dominated the race at Atlanta last weekend until he was involved in a crash on a green/white/checker restart at the end of the race. This team has brought a car capable of winning every week this season and Kevin is my odds on favorite to win the championship this season. He has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty-seven starts here and lead twenty-three laps in the spring race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has also won three races at this track with the last of those coming back in 2006. He hasn’t been real consistent here throughout his career, but the way he has run this season, we can throw out what he was like in the past. This team has a legitimate shot at winning the title this season and another win this weekend would make the other Chase drivers see what this team is capable of.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has two career wins here and looked very good at Atlanta last weekend. We don’t really know if the teams that qualified for the Chase early in the year were doing some experimenting once they were in, or if they just weren’t on the same page. We are going to find out starting this weekend if this team might have been laying in the weeds and are now ready to try and win a championship. Denny has always been good on the flat tracks and we will see if they are going to be a serious contender this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has won two races at Richmond during his career and a win this weekend is his best shot a making the Chase. This team knows that and is going to come with an all or nothing attitude. They will take every chance they can as the race progresses to put themselves in a position to win this race and take one of the last two spots in the Chase. Don’t count him out yet.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three career wins at this track and they all came during the 2007 and 2008 seasons. This team is another team that had struggled after winning three races in a short stretch earlier this season. Once again, were they doing some testing after that, or did they just struggle to find handling and speed? They have run much better this past month and I think they will be fine once the Chase starts.

Carl Edwards: Carl won this race last season and this team has looked better lately. They seem to have found some speed on the intermediate tracks and have been good on the short tracks all year. I think they have a good shot at winning the race this weekend and grabbing some momentum as the Chase looms. Even though this is Carl’s last season at Roush/Fenway Racing, I think they will do everything in their power to make Carl a contender.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is locked into the Chase, but is still looking for his first win of the season. He would like nothing better than to get it this weekend just so he can get a bonus point at the start of the Chase. He has never won a race at Richmond, but has finished in the top seven here in each of the last four races. They have looked very good over the past month and just need to make that one last correct adjustment late in the race and have the cautions fall right for them to get their first win on the season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Ryan Newman
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Atlanta Motor Speedway, Oral-B USA 500

There are only two races left before the start of the Chase this season and the last two spots still aren’t decided yet. We have twelve spots filled by drivers with wins this season and Matt Kenseth has to basically start the next two races and not finish in last place to secure his spot. We could get two new winners in the next couple of races and that would eliminate two spots on points if it happens. All I know is that it could be two wild weeks at the track.

ORAL-B USA 500

This week the series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the running of the Oral-B USA 500. Atlanta is a 1.54-mile quad-oval track, which makes it similar to most other intermediate tracks on the circuit. I predict that a new qualifying record will be set once again this weekend if the weather cooperates. The race will be held on Sunday evening as it is Labor Day weekend. Tires and engines will be tested to their limits in this 500-mile race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the first race he ever ran in the Sprint Cup series at this track back in 2001, when he took over for the late Dale Earnhardt. That is the only race he has run at this track, but the way he has run every week, I look for him to qualify and run well here once again this weekend. He is my pick to win his third race of the season and move into a tie with five other drivers for most wins on the year.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is a five-time winner at Atlanta and after his win at Michigan a couple of weeks ago has shown that he is a serious contender at all types of tracks this year. Jeff has finished in the top ten in twenty-six of his forty starts at this track, and that tells me he is very consistent here. You will want him on your fantasy team this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has had a disappointing finish last week at Bristol after getting caught up in an accident that was no fault of his own. This team has been bringing it every week and on all types of tracks this season and this weekend will be no different. I think that Dale and Steve Latarte are on the same page and Steve makes the right adjustments during the race to fit Dale’s style of driving. They can win the championship this year.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has been improving over the past few weeks and this will be a huge test for this team. This week will let them know if they have their setup correct so they don’t blow tires. That issue needs to be taken care of before the start of the Chase if they want to repeat as champions. Jimmie has three wins here and has finished in the top ten in more than half of his starts here also.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has two career wins at Atlanta and his best chance of making the Chase is to pick up a win in the next two weeks. Kasey runs well at this track and he always seems to run well at night, so both factors are in his favor this weekend. All of the Hendrick teams run well at this track on a consistent basis so you can’t really go wrong with using as many of them as you can in your league this weekend.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won three races at this track and has finished in the top five in eight of his sixteen starts here. The real problem here is that the Roush/Fenway teams have not had the speed on this type of track for much of the season. Carl wound up two laps down at Michigan a couple of weeks ago partly due to speed and the other part pit road penalties.

Joey Logano: Joey finished second in this race last year and the way the Penske teams have shown speed on this type of track this season, he is another good pick for this weekend. Even though the Penske teams run the same motors as the Roush/Fenway teams they have found something aerodynamically that makes them contenders on these tracks. I look for both of the Penske drivers to qualify towards the front of the field and run there for much of the race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the other Penske driver and will have a fast car himself once again this weekend. Brad was a little disappointed at Michigan a couple of weeks ago, because he really wanted to win that race in his home state. He can change that disappointment into another celebration with his fourth win of the season this weekend in Atlanta.

Matt Kenseth: Although Matt has never won a race at Atlanta and hasn’t won a race yet this season, this team will be in the Chase and can go on a roll at any time. Matt has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his twenty-five starts and would love to pick up his first win of the year before the Chase starts. This team looked good at Bristol last weekend and just needs to make the right adjustments during the races on the intermediate tracks.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has quietly been running very well over the past month at all types of tracks. This team will be dangerous once the Chase starts, because I think they are still experimenting a little bit and will be even better once the Chase starts. They might just pull out all of the stops over the next two weeks to see what they really have and it could be enough to win a couple of more races this season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • AJ Allmendinger
  • Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT ATLANTA MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: AJ Allmendinger

Stay Away From: Carl Edwards

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Bristol, Irwin Tools Night Race

With only a few weeks remaining until the playoffs begin, many teams will be taking great risks to qualify for the Chase. Bristol Motor Speedway is a short-track with deep banking, and the end result will be multiple paint transfers. From a fantasy racing perspective, Bristol is a relatively predictable track where the top drivers are expected to finish near the top. With short tracks, there are more point opportunities for laps led and fast laps. As a result, my suggestion is to pick your three favorite drivers, then fill in the other two spots with the salary cap leftovers.

When using the Fantasy NASCAR Statistics Wizard tool to look at the multiple data points at Bristol since 2005, three drivers stand out from the pack. Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, and Kyle Busch provide the best chances for success. Kyle Larson has the best average running position and loop data of any driver, but he only has a sample size of one race. Of the drivers with more than one race in their history, Jeff Gordon has the best average running position of 9.8. Gordon runs in the top 15 for 81% of his laps since 2005. In this same time span, Gordon is 10th in total laps led and fifth in fast laps. This is a little low, but there are high expectations for Gordon.

Kyle Busch has led the most laps of any drivers and also leads fast laps since 2005. With an average finish position of 12.9 and 66% of his laps in the top 15, Busch also should be near the top when the checkered flag falls. Matt Kenseth is second with fast laps and laps led since 2005. He also ties Gordon with 81% of his laps in the top 15. Jimmie Johnson has the historical data to show his success, but I will not trust his team for a few more weeks. They are working on setups and have proved to be a high-risk high-reward team over the past month.

I like these three drivers this week, and I better like them because choosing these three drivers does not leave much salary cap space. Landon Cassill has averaged a 21st place average over the last five Bristol night races. If he gets close to this finish, he will be worth starting. David Ragan has been one of my value starters for many races this year, and almost always provides value for his salary cap space. He has a 22nd place average at Bristol and should be functional. Keep an eye on Reed Sorenson as well as he is expected to outperform his salary cap number.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a salary cap formula that prevents us from simply choosing the top drivers each week. The scoring system uses the statistics of laps led, fast laps, start-to-finish differential, and final position.

This article uses a formula that determines how many points a driver has earned per race over the last five years and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that will show how many fantasy points to expect from each fantasy dollar. We will look at the driver who just missed my cut this week, Dale Earnhardt Jr., to show the details of the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT BRISTOL

  • Total laps led last five Bristol night races: 45 laps led = 4.5 fantasy live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Final position: 12th place average = 32 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus ten = 10 fantasy live points per race
  • Fantasy Live Points Per Race: 46.5
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28
  • Final Ranking 46.5 / $28 = 1.70 points per fantasy dollar

Please review the rankings below for the last five Bristol night races. For rookie drivers, we are using their numbers from the last Bristol race to give you an idea what to expect from them. This week’s selections are shown in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.43
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.50
  • Jeff Gordon 2.42
  • Matt Kenseth 2.21
  • Kasey Kahne 1.71
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.70
  • Clint Bowyer 1.53
  • Carl Edwards 1.32
  • Joey Logano 1.19
  • Brad Keselowski 0.81
  • Kevin Harvick 0.47

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.26
  • Brian Vickers 2.06
  • Kyle Larson 2.05
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.89
  • Denny Hamlin 1.80
  • Greg Biffle 1.76
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.75
  • Jamie McMurray 1.67
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.53
  • Paul Menard 1.37
  • Kurt Busch 1.12
  • Ryan Newman 0.98
  • Aric Almirola 0.29

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.67
  • Jeff Burton 1.97
  • Danica Patrick 1.44
  • Casey Mears 0.94
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.39

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.38
  • Cole Whitt 1.67
  • David Gilliland 0.94

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • JJ Yeley 4.62
  • Landon Cassill 4.28
  • David Stremme 4.17
  • Reed Sorenson 3.43
  • Michael Annett 2.67
  • Alex Bowman 1.53
  • Dave Blaney 1.00
  • Michael McDowell 0.32
  • Josh Wise (-0.13)
  • Ryan Truex (-1.26)