Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHICAGOLAND, MYAFIBRISK.COM 400

The Chase has now started.

Like most weeks, you should front-load your lineup. I do not anticipate this week to be one where there is a great disparity in the standings because the laps led statistic is historically spread out. Congratulations to those of you who did not take my advice and rostered Matt Kenseth. Your standings took a hit if he missed your lineup.

The good news for Fantasy NASCAR players is that we now do not have to worry about teams experimented since the races matter now for all teams. You should concentrate on drivers who are Chase eligible since they have the most to race for in the next 10 races.

Kevin Harvick will continue to be my recommended pick for your roster. With the most laps and fast laps of any driver in 2015, Harvick provides a high probability for success every week. He also has the most top-5 finishes and the best average finish position of any driver in the series. In last year’s race at Chicago, Harvick led the most laps on his way to a 4th place finish. Harvick has three top-10 finishes in his last five races in Chicago. In eight large oval track races in 2015, Harvick has 403 laps led and 271 fast laps. Both numbers are good for the best in the series. He also boasts a 7th place average finish position and 96% of his laps inside the top-15 for similarly configured tracks. When you combine track success, track type success and 2015 success, you have a driver who you want in your lineup.

While the #2 and Brad Keselowski have not been an elite team in 2015, they are still one of the 10 best teams. Keselowski won the Chicago race in 2014, and led 62 laps on his way to the checkered flag. With three top-5 finishes in his last five Chicago races and two wins at the track, Keselowski has proven to be able to find success. On large oval tracks in 2015, Keselowski has finished inside the top-10 in all eight races. With an average finish position of 6.3 and 95% of his laps inside the top-15 for similarly tracks, Keselowski should continue his success this week in Chicago.

The decision for the third roster spot became a decision between Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch. Jimmie Johnson has the best track history, and Joey Logano has the best 2015 numbers of the three drivers. The Hendricks cars have not been as dominant, and I did not like Logano’s track numbers at Chicago. As a result, the recommended third driver is Kyle Busch. Kyle Busch finished in 7th place in 2014 while leading 46 laps during the race. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five races. With four wins in 2015, his team has proved itself to be one of the best in the series since July. While his numbers at large oval tracks is mediocre, Kyle Busch won at Kentucky earlier this season. Unless he struggles in qualifying, Kyle Busch will find his way onto my roster this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, the drawback is that there is not a lot of salary cap room for the final two roster spots. David Ragan is starting to find a pattern of having no fantasy value due to his qualifying speeds. The start-to-finish differential is hurting his value. Nonetheless, he has a 20th place average finish position over his last five Chicago races. You would be hard-pressed to find a better driver. I barely had enough budget for the fifth roster spot. This will tentatively go to Brett Moffitt, who is averaging a 30th place finish in 2015. As always, I will keep an eye on qualifying and may consider the 43rd driver in hopes of start-to-finish differential points.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, or start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculate the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Chicago races. Next, we divide the number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that provides us with an idea of which drivers provide value each week. Jimmie Johnson has the most laps led over the past five Chicago races, yet missed my lineup. As a consolation prize, we will use his Chicago numbers over the past five races to explain the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT CHICAGOLAND

  • Average finish position last five Chicago races: 10.8 equals 33.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 4.6 equals negative 4.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps Led: 343 equals 34.3 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 217 equals 21.7 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points last five Chicago races: 84.6
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $26.25
  • Points per Fantasy Dollar: 84.6 divided by $26.25 equals 3.22

Below you see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. Suggested picks are in bold. For rookie drivers with no history at Chicagoland, we will use their 2015 numbers to provide an idea of their value. Good luck with your picks as we enter the first round of the playoffs.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 3.22
  • Brad Keselowski 2.68
  • Kyle Busch 2.07
  • Kevin Harvick 2.06
  • Matt Kenseth 1.89
  • Kurt Busch 1.54
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.08
  • Joey Logano 1.07
  • Denny Hamlin 0.99

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 3.55
  • Jeff Gordon 2.03
  • Kasey Kahne 2.01
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.66
  • Carl Edwards 1.61
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Clint Bowyer 1.46
  • Jamie McMurray 1.45
  • Paul Menard 0.81
  • Greg Biffle 0.70

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.77
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.30

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.91
  • Danica Patrick 2.34
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.24
  • Justin Allgaier 1.71
  • Trevor Bayne 1.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.25
  • Casey Mears 0.93
  • Cole Whitt 0.50
  • Ryan Blaney 0.48*

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 4.68
  • JJ Yeley 3.53
  • David Ragan 3.18
  • Timmy Hill 3.16
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.53*
  • Brett Moffitt 2.52*
  • Reed Sorenson 2.38
  • Jeb Burton 3.11*
  • Timmy Hill 1.89*
  • David Gilliland 1.88
  • Landon Cassill 1.62
  • Alex Bowman 1.47
  • Josh Wise 1.05
  • Brian Scott 0.52*
  • Michael Annett (-0.17)
  • Michael McDowell (-0.58)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Chicagoland Speedway, MyAFibRisk.com 400

The Chase field is now officially set with Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, and Matt Kenseth sitting at the top of the board. As of right now I have three drivers who I think can win the Chase based on the way they have been running recently. Those drivers are defending champion, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Kyle Busch. Of these three drivers I am going to say Kyle Busch will win his first ever Sprint Cup championship. By no means does this mean that none of the other thirteen drivers can win the championship this season. Just look at last year where Ryan Newman, without a win, came within on spot of winning that championship so, don’t count anyone out.

MYAFIBRISK.COM 400

The Chase begins at Chicagoland Speedway this coming Sunday with the running of the MyAFibRisk.com 400. Chicagoland is the first of many Chase races on a mile-and-a-half track. The only type of track not run during the Chase is a road-course. Otherwise we have a restrictor-plate race that will be the one wild card in the Chase once again. There are also some short tracks, but five of the races including the finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be run on these mile-and-a-half tracks.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to finally win another race and secure his spot in the second round of the Chase. Kevin won the first two races run at Chicagoland and has finished in the top five here in eight of his fourteen starts. The defending champion will start off on the right foot this weekend where he will qualify well and make the right adjustments throughout the race to take his car to victory lane and take the pressure off of himself and his team for the next two races.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has one win here and has finished in the top five in four of his ten career starts at Chicagoland Speedway. The Joe Gibbs teams have won eight of the last eleven races heading into the Chase and I think Kyle will win more than one race during the Chase. He will be there at the end of this race to battle with Kevin for the win and the right to move on to the second round.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race two years ago and he is on a roll right now winning three of the last six races run. This is considered Matt’s home track as he hails from Cambridge, WI and everyone wants to win at the track where they have the most fans in attendance. Matt has always run well on these tracks and the Joe Gibbs teams have shown that they have the speed to get the job done every week.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has won two of the six races he has run here during his short career. This team has struggled a little bit lately running a completely clean race and that is what it takes to win. I think Brad and Paul Wolfe work very well together and they just need to eliminate mistakes on pit road and they will be in the thick of things as the Chase progresses.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is still looking for his first win at Chacagoland but, he has finished in the top ten in ten of his thirteen starts with seven of those finishes being in the top five. This team really needs to figure some things out if Jimmie wants to be a serious contender to win another championship this season. Despite having four wins, this team has really struggled for the past few months and is those struggles continue, Jimmie will won’t keep moving on as the Chase progresses.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has one win at this track and seven top five finishes in fourteen career starts. In his last full-time season with Hendrick Motorsports, Jeff would like to win a final championship and go out in style. So far Jeff is still looking for his first win of the season and right now would be a great time to get it. They just need to find a little more speed as they always seem to have a good handling car but, some other drivers are just a little better.

Joey Logano: Although Joey doesn’t always seem to get the results he would like at Chicagoland, he always seems to have a fast car here. He holds the qualifying record in the Sprint Cup series and the race record in the Xfinity series. Two years ago Joey sat on the pole and led quite a few laps until he lost an engine about halfway through the race. He has run much better here the last three years and knows how to get around this track.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has finished in the top ten here in seven of his nine starts. This year the Michael Waltrip drivers haven’t had the speed or the handling their drivers were hoping for. Now with them not going to run next year, Clint really needs to show something during the Chase if he wants to get an offer from one of the elite teams to drive for them next year. Does this put more pressure on him or does he take that challenge and show everyone that he deserves a ride in one of their cars next season?

Kurt Busch: Kurt has finished in the top ten in eight of his fourteen starts at this track and he has a car just about as good as his teammate, Kevin Harvick, every week. Kurt is always good on the short tracks and if he can run consistently on the mile-and-a-half tracks during the Chase he could find himself racing for a championship at Homestead this November.

Tony Stewart: Even though Tony didn’t make the Chase and he hasn’t run well for the majority of the season we still need to talk about his at Chicagoland. He leads the series in wins here with three, he has eight top five finishes in thirteen starts and he has the same equipment as Kevin and Kurt do. As a part owner of Stewart-Haas Racing he has an obligation to run better or consider retiring from the sport.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Kurt Busch
  • Clint Bowyer
  • Austin Dillon
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Danica Patrick
  • Ryan Blaney

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Paul Menard

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 RICHMOND, FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

The Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway lived up to its reputation as a 5-hour battle of attrition to the drivers and viewers. When the caution flags stopped, Carl Edwards came back from the dead to win the race in the closing laps!

We are now only one race away from the start of the Chase. Richmond International Raceway also offers the last opportunity for drivers to qualify for the playoffs by winning a race.

Expect drivers like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne to take long chances to try to sneak a win. From a fantasy racing perspective, front-load your lineup in an effort to get the most out of the laps led and fast laps statistic. With each team having a unique strategy due to the standings, the race in Richmond may prove itself to be difficult to forecast. I am leaning towards drivers who have been consistent throughout the season and had a positive outcome in the race earlier this season.

For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, the first roster choice will be no surprise. Kevin Harvick has been the most consistent driver in the series in 2015 and has a positive track history at Richmond. The combination is a recipe for a high probability for success this week. Harvick has finished in the top-5 in three of his last five Richmond starts. Over the same time span, Harvick has an average finish position of 6th place and has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15. In the April race, Harvick finished in 2nd place while spending 100% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 23 races in 2015, Harvick has earned 16 top-5 finishes and 20 top-10 finishes. He is 1st in the Series in laps led and fast laps. Due to his numbers, I recommend Harvick for your lineup.

After leading 291 laps en route to a victory in April, Kurt Busch is my recommendation for the 2nd roster spot. With laps led and fast laps weighted heavily this week, going with a driver who had a dominating effort during the most recent race is usually an effective strategy. Kurt Busch’s success at Richmond is not limited to the April race. With four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 8.4, Kurt Busch has enjoyed intermediate success as well. In 2015, Kurt Busch has the 2nd most laps led and 13 top-10 finishes. I expect Kurt Busch to reward owners who start him this week.

Although Joey Logano has not enjoyed long-term success in Richmond, his team has been on fire in the last couple of months. Logano finished in 5th place and led 94 laps earlier this season. With four top-10 finishes in five starts, Logano has seen success at the track. In 2015, Logano has 13 top-5 finishes and the 3rd-most laps led. Although my recommendations at the top of the lineups is predictable, all three combine 2015 success with positive track history. All three have a high probability for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I will round out my lineup with the best drivers available. These two slots are subject to change after qualifying. Michael Annett has a 34th place average in three starts and an average finish position of 32.3 in 2015. While neither number will lead you to a championship, there should be enough room to provide a value for his salary cap number. Annett has not provided my lineup with much value the last few weeks, so I will may consider the driver who qualifies 43rd in this spot. Matt DiBenedetto has been a pleasant surprise to those who have used him in 2015. He only finished 37th in April’s race, but a 31.5 average finish position in 2015 shows that he can provide value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best lineup each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Richmond races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Brad Keselowski has earned the most points of any driver, but misses my lineup because he has slipped a little over the last couple of months. As a consolation prize, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate the formula.

BRAD KESELOWSKI AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five Richmond races: 14.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.2 equals (-7.2) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 648 equals 64.8 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 209 equals 20.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total points earned last five Richmond races: 108.1
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 108.1 divided by $27.25 equals 3.97 points per dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. If you are far behind in the standings, you may want to consider drivers who are out of the Chase and going for broke this week. My suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Richmond history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 3.97
  • Kurt Busch 3.35
  • Kevin Harvick 2.07
  • Matt Kenseth 2.05
  • Joey Logano 2.01
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.67
  • Kyle Busch 1.37
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.18
  • Denny Hamlin 0.56

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Jeff Gordon 3.23
  • Carl Edwards 2.25
  • Ryan Newman 2.12
  • Aric Almirola 1.96
  • Clint Bowyer 1.96
  • Kasey Kahne 1.75
  • Jamie McMurray 1.68
  • Paul Menard 1.46
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.46
  • Kyle Larson 1.18

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Bifflo 1.50
  • Austin Dillon 1.34
  • Tony Stewart 0.92

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.58
  • Trevor Bayne 2.20
  • Casey Mears 1.59
  • Danica Patrick 1.52
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.46
  • Cole Whitt 0.74
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.27

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Timmy Hill 3.60
  • David Gilliland 2.87
  • Justin Allgaier 2.69
  • Reed Sorenson 2.21
  • JJ Yeley 1.98
  • Landon Cassill 1.97
  • Jeb Burton 1.89 *
  • David Ragan 1.85
  • Jeb Burton 1.58
  • Michael Annett 1.52
  • Alex Bowman 1.28
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.13
  • Brian Scott 0.53 *
  • Josh Wise 0.49
  • Brett Moffitt 0.00
  • Michael McDowell (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Richmond International Raceway, Federated Auto Parts 400

There is only one race left before the start of the Chase. Right now there are fourteen drivers locked into the Chase with the other two spots still open. If we don’t get a new winner this week Paul Menard should make the Chase as he has a thirty-nine point lead over Aric Almirola and Clint Bowyer just needs to stay out of major trouble to lock up the last spot.

That means that the rest of the drivers in the top thirty in points who aren’t qualified for the Chase have what is known as “One last race to make the Chase”. Could one of those drivers win this race and knock Clint or Paul out of the Chase. It is possible, so there are a couple of drivers who are going to be a little bit nervous when this race begins on Saturday night.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

This week the series heads to Richmond International Raceway for the running of the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond is a three-quarter-mile flatter D-shaped oval track with a tight pit road. If you want to win this race you need to qualify good enough that you can get a good pit stall because you want to be able to get in and out quickly if a late race caution flag flies.

There will be many different strategies this weekend with drivers not in the Chase taking any chance they might have to win this race and propel themselves into the Chase while drivers that are locked in will be trying to get that one last win to pick up the three bonus points they will get when the Chase starts at Chicagoland the following week. So, all in all I think just about every driver will take any chance they can to win this race. That could be staying out and hoping you don’t run out of gas at the end of the race or taking two tires or maybe gas only late in the race.

Kyle Busch: I am picking Kyle to win his fifth race of the season and catapult himself to the top of the standings as the Chase begins. Kyle has four wins and thirteen top five finishes in twenty starts at Richmond which tells me he knows how to get around this track. After Kyle broke a leg and an ankle in the Xfinity Series race at Daytona in February and missed the first eleven races of the season most people wrote him off for the year. If he wins the race this weekend he will have gone from worst to first in fifteen races.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has three wins at Richmond and comes to the track every week with a car capable of winning. He has also finished in the top ten in eighteen of his twenty-nine starts here and would love to win another race and keep his momentum going as the Chase starts next week. You can never count this guy out of any race.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has two wins at this track and nine top ten finishes in eighteen starts here. Those are pretty good numbers but, the only active driver to lead more laps at this track than Denny is Jeff Gordon, who has 247 more laps led than Denny. However it took Jeff twenty-seven more starts to accumulate those numbers. Denny just needs everything to go his was and he will find himself in victory lane once again this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is locked into the Chase once again this year without a win and that doesn’t really matter as he proved last year. He has one win at Richmond and sixteen top ten finishes in twenty-seven starts here. Those are very telling stats and what they tell me is Ryan really knows how to get around this place in a hurry and can communicate which changes he wants made to his car to keep up with the track as the race progresses.

Tony Stewart: Tony has three wins and four runner-up finishes in his career at Richmond. He also has nineteen top ten’s in thirty-two starts and this team has shown they are starting to get the handle on the adjustments they want to make as the race progresses. The biggest problem this team has is slow pit stops and that definitely won’t cut it at Richmond. You can’t afford to lose spots every time you pit at a place where track position is so important.

Carl Edwards: Carl has one win and is coming in with a lot of momentum following his win at Darlington last weekend. Carl fought his way back to the front from two laps down early in the race. That alone will give this team a lot of confidence heading into the Chase and this weekend. Look for Carl to run well once again this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won three races at Richmond with the last of those wins coming back in 2006. This team will need to pick it up a little bit if they want to compete for a championship. Although Dale has been good most every week, this team needs to get even better and win some races during the Chase which guarantees you will move to the next round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won this race two years ago and looked very good last week at Darlington. I think this is a team that is getting to the point they need to be to have a legitimate shot of winning another championship. They have shown a lot of speed all year and now they are making the right adjustments and avoiding mistakes on pit road which is one of the most important things with the way the Chase is set up now.

Kurt Busch: Kurt won the April race here and always seems to run well on this type of track. He has had cars that are just as fast as his teammate, Kevin Harvick, has had all season. They just need to avoid the mistakes on pit road that seem to eat them up late in races and take them out of contention. By no means is this team going to win a championship unless they can eliminate more of the mistakes that cost them.
Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has won three times here and this team currently is tied for the lead in wins with Kyle Busch with four. However, the way they have been running lately, they have a lot to improve on if they want to contend for another championship. Handling seems to be their biggest issue right now with tire wear coming in as a close second. They are very good for a small portion of the race and then they seem to lose the handle and spin out or blow a tire and crash. That will not win you a championship.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kyle Busch
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Kurt Busch
  • Tony Stewart
  • Clint Bowyer

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Justin Allgaier
  • Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Kyle Busch
  2. Denny Hamlin
  3. Kevin Harvick
  4. Kurt Busch
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Martin Truex Jr.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DARLINGTON, BOJANGLES’ SOUTHERN 500

NASCAR pulled a switch this year and the Labor Day race has moved to Darlington, South Carolina. Darlington Raceway is an historic track that is difficult for drivers to negotiate. As an Atlanta resident, I am slightly disappointed that our holiday race has moved to April. However, this week’s race will be fun to watch as drivers get frustrated at the conditions during the race.

For NASCAR Fantasy Live purposes, this is a good week to front-load your lineups. If you are far behind in the standings, you can pick drivers who are not Chase eligible like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne. They will be forced to take the risks you need to get back into the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, you can go with a conservative approach to your lineup and pick winless drivers who are currently set to go to the Chase like Jeff Gordon and Paul Menard as they will be attempting to avoid big mistakes this week.

As a regular to my lineup this season, Kevin Harvick has helped my team towards the top of the standings. He won last April’s race in Darlington, leading 238 laps on his way to the winner’s circle. We hope that he repeats his efforts from last year’s race. Over the last 5 races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 9th place average. He has the top team so far this season, logging 15 top-5 finishes through 22 races. Harvick has the most laps led of any driver this year by a wide margin, and there is no sign of regression. Keep Harvick in your lineup as long as he keeps up his level of production.

Denny Hamlin finished in the middle of the pack in last year’s race, but that is a rare circumstance. Since 2005, Hamlin has earned seven top-10 finishes in nine races. Recently, Hamlin has a 6th average and is running 99% of his laps inside the top-15 over the last five Darlington races. With only nine top-10 finishes in 2015 through 22 races, Hamlin has not been one of the elite drivers in the Series. In Hamlin’s case, I am valuing track history over seasonal statistics.

For the third spot in my lineup, I am recommending a driver that I had completely written off at one point of the season. Kyle Busch has recovered from a broken leg to win four races in 2015 and establish himself as a Chase contender. Kyle Busch has found success in South Carolina. Over the last five races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has earned four top-10 finishes and a 9th place average finish position. His 416 laps led over this stretch is the most in the Series. I expect Kyle Busch to be one of the front-runners for this week.

With a large chunk of my budget allocated to the top-three spots, I will need to choose the best budget options for my final two recommendations. Although I do not trust him on a tricky track like Darlington, Chase Elliot is in the lineup for his final installment before he joins the series full-time next season. In his previous four races this season, Elliot has averaged a 22nd place finish. As far as budget options, you will be hard-pressed to find one with more upside. For the fifth spot, I will go with my usual budget recommendation in Michael Annett. Annett only has a 32nd place average finish position and finished in 42nd place at Darlington last year. I may keep an eye on qualifying and switch him out if another budget driver looks more tempting. Alex Bowman and Matt DiBenedetto stand out as possible replacements.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. For our formula, we first calculate the total number of points earned by each driver over the last five Darlington races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Greg Biffle is a healthy option for a team that wants to go for broke in the standings. He has the most laps led since 2005 at Darlington. We will use his numbers to illustrate the points per dollar formula.

GREG BIFFLE AT DARLINGTON

  • Average finish position last five Darlington races: 12th place average equals 32 points per race
  • Start-to-Finish Differential: Plus 1.6 equals 1.6 points per race
  • Laps led: 79 equals 7.9 points per race
  • Fast laps: 45 equals 4.5 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 46
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $19.25
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar. 46 divided by 19.25 equals 2.39 points per dollar

Below you will find the points per dollar for all drivers entered at Darlington this week. We will use the 2015 numbers for any rookie driver with no track data. Good luck as we make the push towards the Fantasy NASCAR playoffs.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 3.70
  • Kevin Harvick 2.89
  • Denny Hamlin 2.41
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.25
  • Matt Kenseth 2.03
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.77
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brad Keselowski 1.07
  • Joey Logano 0.51

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.57
  • Jeff Gordon 2.35
  • Kyle Larson 2.13
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.72
  • Jamie McMurray 1.47
  • Ryan Newman 1.41
  • Clint Bowyer 1.33
  • Paul Menard 0.44

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.03
  • Austin Dillon 2.87
  • Greg Biffle 2.39
  • David Ragan 1.82
  • Aric Almirola 0.72

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 2.45
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.39
  • Justin Allgaier 2.35
  • Chase Elliott 2.00 *
  • Casey Mears 1.69
  • Cole Whitt 0.74
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 4.76
  • Timmy Hill 3.90
  • Alex Bowman 2.58
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.35 *
  • Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
  • Landon Cassill 2.13
  • Jeb Burton 2.00 *
  • David Gilliland 1.96
  • Reed Sorenson 1.69
  • Josh Wise 1.39
  • JJ Yeley 0.90
  • Mike Bliss (-0.73)
  • Michael Annett (-1.67)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.