Author: nascar_geek

I am chief cook and bottle washer for Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet.

Categories
By The Numbers Fantasy NASCAR

2014 NASCAR Driver Finish Predictions

I got an email from Cliff DeJong this morning. Cliff is the creator of our exclusive AccuPredict weekly NASCAR Driver finish position predictor algorithm. He has worked with statistics his whole life and each off-season he pours back over the NASCAR numbers to learn how his computations can be modified to increase their accuracy. Cliff is and has been a great asset for me and all the subscribers at Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet that use his AccuPredict data each week to help pick their weekly fantasy NASCAR drivers.

CLIFF HAS BEEN HARD AT WORK AGAIN

During this off-season Cliff examined the 2010 – 2013 NASCAR seasons and projected what he thinks will be the statistically likely finishes for the 2014 NASCAR season.

He used 2010 – 2012 to predict 2013, and then the same methodology with 2011-2013 data to predict 2014. As an interesting side-project he also looked at the last 10 years of notable rookies to estimate how Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Danica Patrick will do this year. As well as how well the rookies in general will do.

He is pretty happy with his results. Those of you that are really geeky into stats will get how exciting it is to have correlations of 0.88+. That is what Cliff was able to accomplish in this study.

ANY SURPRISES?

You bet.

Kevin Harvick is projecting to be the best average finisher in 2014. Matt Kenseth is second, and Jimmie Johnson will fall to third. Carl Edwards is in fourth, and Kyle Busch is just behind Carl in fifth. Cliff still is uncertain about how to predict who will be in the Chase with the new format, but right now he is comfortable to pick the top-twelve on his list almost for sure to be in.

Cliff shared that the major unknowns are how well Denny Hamlin and Tony Stewart will bounce back after their respective injuries. Plus, he notes the performance of rookies Austin Dillon and Parker Kligerman are also only rough estimates. For all the #3 fans he says the Austin Dillon in particular could do much better than the forecast shows.

ON TO THE RESULTS

Without further ado, here is Cliff’s predictions for the 2014 NASCAR season.

Rank Driver Average Finish
1 Kevin Harvick 10.9
2 Matt Kenseth 11.4
3 Jimmie Johnson 11.7
4 Carl Edwards 12.3
5 Kyle Busch 12.4
6 Brad Keselowski 12.7
7 Clint Bowyer 13.1
8 Dale  Earnhardt Jr 13.4
9 Jeff Gordon 13.7
10 Tony Stewart 13.9
11 Kasey Kahne 14.1
12 Greg Biffle 14.3
13 Martin Truex Jr 15.1
14 Joey Logano 15.3
15 Ryan Newman 15.4
16 Kurt Busch 15.7
17 Paul Menard 17.0
18 Denny Hamlin 17.3
19 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 17.7
20 Brian Vickers 18.3
21 Marcos Ambrose 18.7
22 Jamie McMurray 18.8
23 AJ Allmendinger 19.3
24 Austin Dillon 19.6
25 Parker  Kligerman 22.7
26 Danica Patrick 24.3
27 David Ragan 24.8
28 Casey Mears 25.7
29 Kyle Larson 26.7
30 David Gilliland 27.2
31 David Reutimann 27.4
32 Dave Blaney 29.4
33 Justin Allgaier 29.5
34 Travis Kvapil 29.6
35 Landon Cassill 30.0
36 David Stremme 32.8
37 JJ Yeley 33.6
38 Michael McDowell 37.3

PHOTO CREDIT: NASCAR via Getty Images. PHOTO DESCRIPTION: Brendan Gaughan, driver of the #62 South Point Hotel & Casino Chevrolet, leads a pack of cars during NASCAR Preseason Thunder at Daytona International Speedway on January 12, 2014 in Daytona Beach, Florida.

Categories
By The Numbers

NASCAR 2013 GEN-6 RACE CAR IN REVIEW

GEN-6 preview display at NASCAR Hall of Fame
GEN-6 preview display at NASCAR Hall of Fame. Credit NASCAR/Getty Images

NASCAR invested over two years of development, wind tunnel and on-track testing to bring the biggest change in NASCAR since 2007 when the “Car of Tomorrow” (aka COT) was introduced. NASCAR’s Generation-6 (GEN-6) car rolled out on to the track in Daytona at the start of the 2013 NASCAR season and now has its first season under its belt.

The intent was that the GEN-6 car would continue to bring more competition to the races and move closer to identifying the manufacturers brand than the cars have in many years.

BY THE NUMBERS

Here is a look at some of the interesting numbers tallied looking back at a full NASCAR season of data.

[separator type=’transparent’ normal_full_width=” pattern_full_width=” color=” thickness=’20’ up=’15’ down=’15’]

[two_col_50_50_col1]
[counter type=’type1′ position=’center’ delay=’500′ digit=’127306′ font_size=” font_color=’#E91B23′]

GREEN FLAG PASSES

The second highest total since the inception of Loop Data in 2005 – and 17,398 more passes than 2012.

[/counter]
[/two_col_50_50_col1]
[two_col_50_50_col2]
[counter type=’type1′ position=’center’ delay=’500′ digit=’971′ font_size=” font_color=’#E91B23′]

GREEN FLAG PASSES FOR THE LEAD

An increase from the 946 Green Flag Passes for the Lead in 2012.

[/counter]
[/two_col_50_50_col2]

[separator type=’transparent’ normal_full_width=” pattern_full_width=” color=” thickness=’30’ up=’15’ down=’15’]

[pie_chart type=’normal’ delay=’500′ title=’RUNNING AT FINISH’ percent=’83’ percentage_color=’#E91B23′ active_color=’#E91B23′ noactive_color=’#F1F1F1′] Percentage of cars that were running at the finish of races, up from 74.7% in 2012. [/pie_chart]

[pie_chart type=’normal’ delay=’500′ title=’FINISH ON LEAD LAP’ percent=’51’ percentage_color=’#E91B23′ active_color=’#E91B23′ noactive_color=’#F1F1F1′] Percentage of cars that finished on the lead lap, the highest percentage since 2009. [/pie_chart]

[pie_chart type=’normal’ delay=’500′ title=’MARGIN OF VICTORY UNDER 1-SECOND’ percent=’56’ percentage_color=’#E91B23′ active_color=’#E91B23′ noactive_color=’#F1F1F1′] Percentage of races that ended with a margin of victory under one second, up from 47% of races in the 2012 NASCAR season. [/pie_chart]

[separator type=’transparent’ normal_full_width=” pattern_full_width=” color=” thickness=” up=’25’ down=’10’]

[counter type=’type1′ position=’center’ delay=’500′ digit=’19’ font_size=” font_color=’#E91B23′]

TRACK QUALIFYING RECORDS BROKEN

[/counter]

[counter type=’type1′ position=’center’ delay=’500′ digit=’5′ font_size=” font_color=’#E91B23′]

RACES WITH RECORD PASSES FOR THE LEAD

[/counter]

[counter type=’type1′ position=’center’ delay=’500′ digit=’10’ font_size=” font_color=’#E91B23′]

AVERAGE NUMBER OF LEADERS PER RACE

[/counter]