Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live 2015 Spring Summary

We are already a third of the way through the NASCAR season. With a week away from Fantasy Live for the All Star Race, this is a good week to review the first 11 races of the season.

Our weekly Fantasy Live article often focuses on each driver’s performance at the weekly track, but taking into account the 2015 results is also important. With eleven races into the season, we now have enough data where we can see which drivers are providing the best value in each group.

Not that this is a surprise to anyone this year, but the driver who has provided the most fantasy live value per salary cap dollar is Kevin Harvick. In eleven races in 2015, Kevin Harvick has spent 92% of his laps in the top-15. He will continue to be the among the favorites every week. With a series-best 4.87 per Fantasy Live dollar, Harvick is a must start every week.

Since returning from his early suspension, Kurt Busch has been one of the top drivers in the series. He is competing well in tracks where he usually struggles. One more solid finish and Kurt Busch will graduate to the top tier of drivers. With three less starts than the other drivers, Kurt Busch is second in total laps led and has spent 85% of his laps running in the top-15. He should produce at a level that you would expect Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano or Brad Keselowski.

The third tier has proven to be the least productive group. With a couple exceptions (see Allmendinger expanded driver averages at Watkins Glen), I would not roster any driver with a price range between $15.00 to $20.00. The least valuable driver in the series, Tony Stewart, is in this tier. With 0.38 points per dollar and an average finish position of 28th place, Tony Stewart cannot be considered for your roster. I am expecting his numbers to improve during the summer months as he traditionally performs better after Memorial Day.

While compiling this article, I was surprised to see the value that David Gilliland has provided this season. He is not flashy, as evidenced by his 24th place average. One of the areas where Gilliland is generated points is start-to-finish differential. With a plus nine in this category, Gilliland earns enough points to be worth his $10.75 salary cap value. I will be more mindful of the #38 car going forward.

In the bottom drivers, Matt DiBenedetto has quietly become a valuable option. He will start at 40th place and finish 34th on most tracks. The 15 Fantasy Live points generated provides value for your roster. Due to his success, his salary cap value is starting to clim a little so he may provide less value as the season progresses. Eighty percent of regular drivers with a salary cap figure are earning two points per fantasy dollar making the bottom drivers the safest ones to pick. The value at the bottom is one of the reasons I suggest front-loading your lineup every week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, fantasy live uses a salary cap format. Our formula simply calculates the average number of points earned by each driver for the last five races at a track. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine the value of each driver. The numbers below reflect the value for each driver for the eleven 2015 races. Enjoy your week’s rest from Fantasy NASCAR. We will have a Charlotte article posted later this week.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 4.87
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.80
  • Joey Logano 2.34
  • Brad Keselowski 1.97
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.92
  • Matt Kenseth 1.76
  • Denny Hamlin 1.60
  • Jeff Gordon 1.51
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Kyle Larson 1.24

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kurt Busch 3.88
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.62
  • Aric Almirola 1.99
  • Ryan Newman 1.59
  • Kasey Kahne 1.59
  • Clint Bowyer 1.44
  • Carl Edwards 1.44
  • Paul Menard 1.41
  • Greg Biffle 1.19
  • Austin Dillon 1.19

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.68
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.61
  • Tony Stewart 0.38

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 3.05
  • Danica Patrick 2.35
  • Trevor Bayne 2.13
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.11
  • Justin Allgaier 1.95
  • David Ragan 1.49
  • Ryan Blaney 0.77

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.78
  • Alex Bowman 2.85
  • Cole Whitt 2.72
  • Brett Moffitt 2.69
  • JJ Yeley 2.66
  • Michael Annett 2.62
  • Josh Wise 2.44
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.13
  • Michael McDowell 2.02
  • Landon Cassill 1.59
  • Jeb Burton 1.42
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s starting position scared me away at Talladega. The fan favorite rewarded the owners who added him to their roster. After a series of short track and super speedways, we return to an intermediate sized track this week at Kansas. Intermediate tracks generally favor the top drivers in the series. As a result, I would suggest front-loading your roster with three top drivers and finding the best budget drivers possible for the final two spots.

An easy choice for your Kansas lineup this week is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has run near the top at every track, and he is especially dominant at tracks this size. Harvick has led the most laps over the past five Kansas races and is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, Harvick has run 73% of his laps in the top-15 since 2005 and has a 10th place average finish position during this time span. Kevin Harvick is an easy choice for the top of your lineup.

There are three other top drivers I would like this weekend and choosing a driver to leave off was challenging. After much deliberation, my second roster spot is going to Jimmie Johnson due to his long-term history at the track. Johnson has a respectable 13th place average finish position in the last five Kansas races and the fourth-most laps led. Since 2005, Johnson has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 races. During the same time span, Johnson has the best average finish position and the most laps led of any driver. The #48 team is looking more consistent as the season progresses, and I have high expectations this week.

Joey Logano’s long-term numbers at Kansas do not warrant a roster spot. However, he has looked much better since joining the Penske team and is one of the favorites to win this race. Over the last five races, Logano has a 13th place average finish position and the second-most laps led. Logano’s team is one of the best this year and Logano is a solid pick for your roster.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not many salary cap dollars available for the final two roster spots. I am going with two high-risk, high-reward options. Erik Jones struggled as a last second substitute for Denny Hamlin earlier this season. With time to prepare, I am expecting a decent finish now that he is taking over for the #18 team. Ty Dillon has a 28th place finish in one race this year. My expectations are low, but a similar finish would provide value with an $8 salary cap. Michael Annett missed my roster, but has a 25th place average finish in two races. Consider him as a budget option.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each NASCAR driver. Matt Kenseth is the front-end driver that barely missed my roster. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was in this position last week and won in Talladega. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the past five Kansas races to illustrate the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position last five Kansas races: 7.2 = 36.8 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.8 equals 7.8 points per race
  • Laps led: 263 equals 26.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 121 equals 12.1 point per race
  • Total points per race: 83
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 83 divided by $26 equals 3.19 points per dollar

Below you will find the results for each drivers. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Kansas history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.19
  • Kevin Harvick 2.83
  • Kyle Larson 2.19
  • Joey Logano 2.08
  • Jeff Gordon 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Brad Keselowski 1.36
  • Denny Hamlin 1.23
  • Jamie McMurray 1.03

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.25
  • Kasey Kahne 1.98
  • Paul Menard 1.85
  • Carl Edwards 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.60
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52
  • Aric Almirola 1.50
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.76
  • Kurt Busch 0.73

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.09
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.06
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.52)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 2.78
  • David Gilliland 2.17
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.67
  • Danica Patrick 1.63
  • Casey Mears 1.21
  • Justin Allgaier (-1.22)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 4.65
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
  • Landon Cassill 2.75
  • Cole Whitt 2.59
  • Brett Moffitt 2.56*
  • Ty Dillon 2.38*
  • Mike Bliss 2.36*
  • Josh Wise 1.60
  • Alex Bowman 1.38
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.33*
  • Jeb Burton 1.17*
  • Michael McDowell (-0.88)
  • Erik Jones (no data)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 TALLADEGA, GEICO 500

Kurt Busch ended up being the driver we all wanted in our lineups at Richmond and has now punched his ticket into the Chase. We now proceed to the unpredictability of restrictor plate racing this week at Talladega Superspeedway. Typically, there is not a dominating car at the Alabama track so you do not have to aggressively chase laps led and fast laps. I will include drivers in this article who have seen success at Talladega for my early week roster recommendations.

The best strategy is to pick a lineup that qualifies near the back of the field and gain points from start-to-finish differential. The restrictor plates allow drivers to easily move from the front to the back of the field. If you are deep in the standings of the league, you may want to pick drivers who do not see many lineups and hope you get lucky. Set your lineup and hope that when the dust settles, you have four cars who can finish one of the most entertaining races to watch all season.

While Dale Earnhardt Jr. is known for his success in Talladega, the driver who has seen the most recent success is Matt Kenseth. Over the last five races at Talladega, Kenseth has led a series-best 209 laps. His 13.6 average finish position is the best of the top-end drivers. Since 2005, Matt Kenseth has spent 64% of his laps running in the top-15. His 13 top-20 finishes since 2005 is tied with Clint Bowyer for the most in the series. If Kenseth qualifies near the back of the field, he will be the first choice for my lineup.

Speaking of Clint Bowyer, watching his team in 2015 has generally been a painful experience. The restrictor plates are an equalizer for struggling teams and Bowyer has found consistent success at this week’s track. While he has not led too many laps here, Bowyer has an 11th place average at the track and a positive start-to-finish differential. His 13 top-20 finishes in 18 races shows that he usually avoids the big wreck. Bowyer will likely be a member of my roster this week.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is a scary option for most weeks. With a +14 start-to-finish differential and an 11.4 average finish position in three races, Stenhouse has seen early success. He also has two top-10 finishes already and has stayed away from the carnage. In a race filled with quality budget options, Stenhouse has a high probability of success this week.

David Ragan will soon be switching from the #18 team to the #55 team. Whichever team he drives for, he should have a solid run in Talladega. Ragan’s value has increased since the beginning of the season and almost cannot be defined as a budget option unless you have stashed him on your roster. Ragan has averaged a 15th place finish over his last five Talladega races. Although he has only led nine laps during this time span, one of those laps propelled him to victory two years ago. Ragan has ten top-20 finishes in 16 Talladega races. He should be on your roster if he qualifies at the end of the field.

For once, I still have salary cap room available for the 5th roster spot. I am regretting leaving Kurt Busch off of my roster last week. He has not seen recent success at the track, as evidenced by his 25th place average finish position during the last five Talladega races. Long-term, he is tied for the best in the series with 64% of his laps inside the top-15 since 2005. With 12 top-20 finishes in 20 races, Kurt Busch can drive well here.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to manage the talent we choose every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Talladega races. Next, we divide the average number of points by the salary cap figure to help find potential value. By the end of this weekend, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has a good chance to find my roster. He is off right now, and we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT TALLADEGA

  • Average finish position last five Talladega races: 19.2 equals 24.8 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 1.2 equals negative 1.2 points per race
  • Laps led: 113 equals 11.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 14 equals 1.4 points per race
  • Total points per Talladega race: 62.67
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $27.25
  • Points per Dollar:62.67 divided by $27.25 equals 2.30 points per dollar

Below you will find the Points per Dollar for each driver. My picks are highlighted in bold. We will use 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Good luck and make sure to tweak your lineup after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.88
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.30
  • Kyle Larson 2.13
  • Kevin Harvick 1.69
  • Jamie McMurray 1.62
  • Denny Hamlin 1.23
  • Jeff Gordon 1.17
  • Kasey Kahne 1.06
  • Brad Keselowski 1.00
  • Joey Logano 0.90

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Greg Biffle 2.81
  • Clint Bowyer 2.15
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
  • Paul Menard 1.29
  • Ryan Newman 1.28
  • Aric Almirola 1.05
  • Kurt Busch 0.89
  • Carl Edwards 0.71

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.30
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.69
  • Tony Stewart 0.24

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
  • David Gilliland 3.67
  • Bobby Labonte 3.56
  • David Ragan 3.49
  • Justin Allgaier 2.98
  • Michael Waltrip 2.73
  • Casey Mears 1.91
  • Danica Patrick 1.21
  • Ryan Blaney 0.30
  • Trevor Bayne 0.10

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 5.04
  • JJ Yeley 2.97
  • Josh Wise 2.80
  • Cole Whitt 2.55
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.50*
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.45*
  • Michael McDowell 1.92
  • Jeb Burton 1.12*
  • Michael Annett 0.75
  • Alex Bowman (-0.14)
  • Brian Scott (-4.75)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 RICHMOND, TOYOTA OWNERS 400

The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway was brutal last week and left many fantasy players licking their wounds.

With four DNFs in the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet Yahoo league, my total number of DNFs has grown to 13 for the season (41% of all selections). Needless to say, the element of luck has not been on my side yet this season. NASCAR stays in the east this week at Richmond International Raceway. Like Bristol, your goal is to select the drivers who will earn points in the laps led and fast laps categories. With more chances to earn points due to the number of laps in short tracks, we will once again see a significant difference between the winners and losers this week. My suggestion is to front load your lineup to get as many opportunities as possible to benefit from the laps led statistic.

Although he has not led a ton of laps at Richmond, Kevin Harvick has been running near the top all season. Given his lightning-hot start in 2015, he has to find your lineup on the tracks where he has seen success. Over the past five Richmond races, Harvick is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, he has spent 93% of his Richmond laps running in the top-15 since 2005. He also has earned 15 top-10 finishes during this time span. Harvick will eventually cool off, but he will stay in my lineup until he does.

For the second spot on my roster, I am choosing the driver with the most Fantasy Live points and laps led over the last five Richmond races. Brad Keselowski has led 639 laps and is significantly higher than the second-best driver (Clint Bowyer with 273). Keselowski also has the best lap-to-lap performance. Although the long-term numbers are not overly impressive, the #2 car is clearly a favorite this week after a disappointing Bristol outing.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon. I like Hamlin at Virginia tracks, but his 20.5 average finish over the last five Richmond races was enough to scare me away. His numbers looked eerily similar at Martinsville, and Denny won that race. Despite the similarities, Gordon is a safer option and has a high likelihood of success this week. He holds a 5th place average finish position over the last five Richmond races. Over the same period of time, Gordon has the third-most laps led and the second-most Fantasy Live points per race. Historically, Gordon has 12 top-10 finishes in his last twenty Richmond races. I am expecting Gordon to be near the top this week.

After choosing three of the highest salary drivers, there is little room remaining for the final two spots. Although he struggled in his Cup debut, Chase Elliot is a high-risk, high-reward option at $9.00. I am hoping he is over his jitters and does not bounce off cars like a pinball this week. Michael Annett has a 35th place average finish position at Richmond. For now, he is the top budget option available. My choice for the final position will be based on qualifying. I will likely pick a driver under $7.00 at the bottom of the qualifying field and hope he passes a few wrecked cars to provide value (see Matt DiBenedetto or Alex Kennedy most weeks).

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format.

Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Richmond races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary cap figure. The result is a number that reveals which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Since Denny Hamlin missed my lineup, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate this formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five Richmond races: 20.5 equals 23.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.5 equals (-7.5) Fantasy Live points
  • Laps Led: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast Laps: 77 equals 7.7 Fantasy Live Points
  • Average number of points per race last five Richmond races: 50.88
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.88 divided by $26.00 equals 1.96 points per dollar

Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver at Richmond. My picks are highlighted picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all tracks for any driver with no Richmond track history. I will comment on any suggestions after qualifying. I will also post my Yahoo lineup this week so you know who to avoid in your lineups. With 28 races still left in the season, there is plenty of time to catch up.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 4.03
  • Jeff Gordon 2.90
  • Matt Kenseth 2.12
  • Denny Hamlin 1.96
  • Kevin Harvick 1.85
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.81
  • Jamie McMurray 1.39
  • Joey Logano 1.31
  • Kyle Larson 0.89
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.77

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.53
  • Carl Edwards 2.35
  • Ryan Newman 2.23
  • Kurt Busch 2.10
  • Aric Almirola 1.73
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.67
  • Greg Biffle 1.58
  • Paul Menard 1.44
  • Kasey Kahne 1.40

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.29
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.27
  • Tony Stewart 1.97
  • Casey Mears 1.89
  • Austin Dillon 1.43
  • Danica Patrick 1.39

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Gilliland 2.55
  • Justin Allgaier 2.49
  • Trevor Bayne 2.25 *
  • David Ragan 1.42
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.35

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Alex Kennedy 3.09 *
  • Brett Moffitt 2.86 *
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.50 *
  • Landon Cassill 2.24
  • JJ Yeley 1.89
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.83 *
  • Cole Whitt 1.18
  • Jeb Burton 1.08 *
  • Reed Sorenson 1.05
  • Josh Wise 0.80
  • Michael Annett 0.79
  • Alex Bowman 0.41
  • Chase Elliott(-0.33) *
  • Joey Gase n/a *

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 BRISTOL, FOOD CITY 500 IN SUPPORT OF STEVE BYRNES AND STAND UP TO CANCER

After watching Jimmie Johnson hold off Kevin Harvick in the Duck Commander 500 at Texas Motor Speedway for his second win of the season, NASCAR moves back east to Bristol Motor Speedway. Due to the nature of the track, Bristol is one of the most exciting races of the season. This week’s pick is challenging because there are many drivers who have seen success at the steep track.

My suggestion is to front-load your lineup and hope you pick the drivers who dominate the laps led and fast laps. With 500 laps in the race, there will be a great disparity between the haves and the have nots in your fantasy leagues. Keep a close eye on qualifying as you may want to roster the teams that start at the front.

The first driver on my team seems to always be running in 8th place, and I hope this pattern changes this week. Over the past five Bristol races, Kenseth has twice as many laps led as the second-best driver (tied between Hamlin and Edwards). His average finish position is a modest 15.4, but his lap-to-lap performance is the best in the series. With eight top-5 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Kenseth has seen the most success at the track. After ignoring track history last week and keeping Jimmie Johnson out of my lineup, I want to make sure the driver with the best track history remains in my lineup.

The second driver for my lineup has the best average finish position over the past five Bristol races. Joey Logano was in my lineup last week, and stayed in the top-5 for most of the race. However, he did not lead too many laps and was only an adequate selection. He is second to Kenseth in lap-to-lap performance and has a high probability for success this week. Although his long-term numbers at the track are not impressive, Logano is one of the best drivers in the series and should run near the top.

Usually, I select the third top driver for my lineup and fill the remaining with the best available budget drivers. Due to the value of Justin Allgaier and David Ragan this week, I added the budget drivers first and will fill the fifth spot with the best driver available. Allgaier seems like he wrecks every week, and I am afraid to include him on my roster. He generally outperforms his value on shorter tracks and averaged an 18th place finish in two Bristol races. He had similar numbers at Martinsville and did not finish the race. I will take the risk and hope it pays off.

I left David Ragan off my roster a couple of weeks ago at Martinsville due to his underwhelming track data. I regretted keeping him off my team. The scenario is similar at Bristol, where Ragan enjoys a 23rd place average finish over the last five races. That number should alone provide value. With the #18 team, he is likely to improve on his average. If you value track data, then you may want to choose Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who has great numbers in a limited amount of Bristol races.

With the remaining budget, the best driver for the final roster spot is Carl Edwards. Edwards has led 242 laps over his last five Bristol races and is becoming more consistent as the season progresses. He only has a 17th place average finish position over the same time span, which makes him slightly risky. With nine top-10 finishes in his last 20 Bristol races, Edwards has shown enough consistency at the track to be a contender this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Bristol races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure in order to know which starters will provide the most value for your fantasy dollars. I like Kasey Kahne this week, but he got squeezed out of my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use Kasey’s Bristol numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT BRISTOL

  • Average finish position last five Bristol races: 11th place equals 33 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 2.4 equals 2.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 207 laps equals 20.7 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: 215 equals 21.5 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Total points per Bristol race: 72.8
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap: $25.00
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 2.91

Below are the numbers for each driver. We will use the 2015 numbers for drivers with no track history. Recommended picks are in bold. Stay tuned after qualifying as I try to include any updates in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.47
  • Kasey Kahne 2.91
  • Joey Logano 2.45
  • Kyle Larson 2.24
  • Jamie McMurray 1.85
  • Jeff Gordon 1.82
  • Denny Hamlin 1.80
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.75
  • Brad Keselowski 1.46
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.40
  • Kevin Harvick 1.37

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Carl Edwards 2.77
  • Clint Bowyer 2.34
  • Paul Menard 2.12
  • Greg Biffle 2.03
  • Kurt Busch 1.48
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.25
  • Ryan Newman 1.06
  • Aric Almirola 0.74

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.81
  • Tony Stewart 1.39
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.31

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 4.19
  • Justin Allgaier 3.48
  • Danica Patrick 2.00
  • David Gilliland 1.91
  • David Ragan 1.68
  • Casey Mears 1.61

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Chris Bueschler 4.62 *
  • JJ Yeley 4.60
  • Landon Cassill 3.27
  • Alex Kennedy 2.72 *
  • Josh Wise 2.37
  • Michael Annett 2.32
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.26 *
  • Brendan Gaughan 2.10 *
  • Mike Bliss 1.81 *
  • Jeb Burton 1.77 *
  • Alex Bowman 1.71
  • Michael McDowell 1.07
  • Cole Whitt 0.08
  • Brett Moffitt (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.