Author: Bill Hnat

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

With the first race of the second round of the playoffs in the books, the second leg in Kansas offers different strategies for the teams remaining in the Chase. With the unpredictable nature of a restrictor plate tracking looming, teams will feel a lot of pressure to finish near the front of the field this week. You should front-load your lineup, and your roster decisions should reflect your standings in your league.

If you want to take a risk, take a driver like Kenseth or Junior who are behind in the standings. If you are near the top and want to minimize your risk, take Harvick or Carl Edwards since they will try to play it safe. There are only a few weeks left this season, and you need to make a push for the top of your lineup right now.

As a mainstay in my lineup, I will keep Kevin Harvick as the first driver in my lineup. In the May race, Harvick led 53 laps on his way to a 2nd place finish. He has seen success at the track recently, with three top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races. His 371 laps led and 178 fast laps over the same stretch are good for best in the series. On large oval tracks in 2015, Harvick has seven top-10 finishes and the most laps led of any driver. Through 26 races in 2015, Harvick has seen 17 top-5 finishes and has led the most laps of any driver. With a combination of track success, track type success, and 2015 success, Harvick has a high probability for success in Kansas. Given his current standings in the playoffs, I expect the #4 team to have a conservative approach to the race. This will benefit lineups that are near the top of the standings.

Another driver who has helped fantasy NASCAR lineups to the top of the standings this season is Joey Logano. Logano ended up finishing 5th in the Kansas earlier this season, leading a handful of laps during the race. With four top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races, starting Logano has a high probability to bring you success this week. In large oval tracks this year, Logano has eight top-10 finishes in nine races of this track type. After 26 races, Logano has passed Harvick for the best average finish position in the series in 2015. With 15 top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led in the series, Logano has been one of the most consistent drivers in the series. My only concern with Logano is that the team may take some risks now that they have qualified to the next round of the playoffs.

The third lineup recommendation started the season hot and cooled off slightly as the season continues. He joins my lineup due to his performance in Kansas earlier this season. Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps in the May race en route to a 9th place finish. Truex Jr. reminds me of Kenseth earlier in the season when it seems like he is always running in 9th place. While this is a good run by NASCAR standards, it does no benefit to a scoring system that rewards points for laps led and fast laps. Truex Jr. has three top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races. He has the 10th best average finish position in 2015 and boasts 16 top-10 finishes through 26 races. I will keep an eye on practice and qualifying, and I am hoping the #78 team repeats their performance earlier this season. Truex needs another solid finish to remain in contention in the playoffs, and I expect a conservative setup from their team as well.

Sometimes recommending budget drivers can be challenging. This week, two drivers stood out from the pack. Michael Annett, due to his low salary cap number, has a tendency to show up at the bottom of my roster. I am usually rewarded with modest numbers that do not help or hurt me. Annett finished 23rd in the May race and has a 24th place average finish position at the track through three attempts. These numbers outperform his 2015 average finish position of 33.4. If Annett comes near his average, you will benefit from having him in your lineup. Matt DiBenedetto finished 25th place in the May Race with a plus-ten start-to-finish differential. This finish outperforms his value and is worth a risk at the bottom of your roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary figure for each driver to determine which drivers are likely to provide the most value this week. Jimmie Johnson won the Kansas race, but only led a handful of laps and missed the cut-off for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the last five Kansas races to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position last five Kansas races: 11.8 equals 32.2 Fantasy Live Points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus six equals 6 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 49 equals 4.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 91 equals 9.1 Fantasy Live points
  • Average points per race: 52.2
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.25
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 52.2 divided by $25.25 equals 2.07 points per dollar

Below are the points per race for each driver over the last five Kansas races. Please use this as a tool to give to an edge as the season winds down.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.22
  • Matt Kenseth 2.54
  • Joey Logano 2.31
  • Jeff Gordon 2.21
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.07
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.65
  • Brad Keselowski 1.44
  • Carl Edwards 1.39
  • Denny Hamlin 0.71
  • Kyle Busch 0.48

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.37
  • Kyle Larson 2.28
  • Kasey Kahne 2.08
  • Paul Menard 1.65
  • Clint Bowyer 1.38
  • Aric Almirola 1.33
  • Ryan Newman 1.16
  • Jamie McMurray 1.02
  • Kurt Busch 0.99

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 1.42
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.47

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.49
  • Austin Dillon 2.30
  • Danica Patrick 1.70
  • Cole Whitt 1.69
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Casey Mears 1.53
  • Trevor Bayne 0.91
  • Ryan Blaney 0.84
  • Tony Stewart 0.65
  • Justin Allgaier (-0.73)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 6.77
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.87
  • Timmy HIll 3.10
  • Landon Cassill 2.75
  • Reed Sorenson 2.62
  • JJ Yeley 2.28
  • Brett Moffitt 2.21
  • David Gilliland 2.18
  • Reed Sorenson 2.00 *
  • Brian Scott 1.03 *
  • David Ragan 1.01
  • Alex Bowman 0.71
  • Jeb Burton (1.40)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHARLOTTE, BANK OF AMERICA 500

With the first cuts of the playoffs past us, the pressure is on once again for the 12 survivors to claim one of the eight available spots for the next cut.

As the first leg of the race, Charlotte should favor the drivers who have a good record on intermediate tracks. With over four months since the Memorial Day race, my only conscious memories of it were that the race was very long and Carl Edwards won. Though slightly shorter than the 600 miles in May, you should still front-load your lineup in an effort to capture the all-important laps led and fast lap numbers.

The top suggested driver for your weekly lineup continues to be Kevin Harvick. Harvick has the combination of track success, track type success, and 2015 success that provides a high probability for success in Charlotte. With a top-10 finish in every Charlotte race since 2013, Harvick is likely to run near the front of the field. He has two wins and the most laps led and fast laps over the last five races. In the May race at Charlotte, Harvick ended up finishing in 9th. This would be considered a success most most drivers, but is actually worse than his 4th place average. Harvick has a 7th place average finish position in large oval tracks in 2015. I cannot ignore his history at the track and will keep having the #4 team in my lineup.

After Harvick, the next two roster spots were difficult to decide. There were many good options, but not any great options for your roster. The choice for spots #2 and #3 were between Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Kurt Busch. With the drivers appearing equal, I leaned more toward the May race as a barometer of who to add to my roster. Carl Edwards won the May race, although he only stayed out front for 25 laps. Edwards has enjoyed four top-10 finishes in his last five races at the track. He is averaging a top-10 finish for all large oval tracks. He started out slowly in 2015, but has improved as the season progressed.

I chose the driver who led the most laps in the May race for the 3rd roster spot. Kurt Busch led 118 laps in the 600-mile race on his way to a 10th place finish. With only two top-10 finishes at Charlotte in his last five races, he has not enjoyed the success at Charlotte as some of the other drivers. Kurt Busch is 3rd in the series in laps led and fast laps through 26 races. Kurt Busch will be a member of my roster with a hope that he matches his May effort. Keep a close eye on Logano and Kenseth in practice and qualifying to see if they deserve the top spot.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not much salary cap flexibility for the bottom two spots on my roster. I get frustrated with the caution-causing Alex Bowman during many races, but I think he could outperform his salary value this week. Bowman finished in 26th during the May race and has a 29th place career average finish at the track. If Bowman can stay off the wall and finish inside the top-30, he will provide value for your team. Michael Annett has an underwhelming average finish position of 31st in three races at Charlotte. I will check qualifying and consider a bottom driver for this roster spot, but Annett should be okay this week. As with most weeks, qualifying may have an impact on who rounds out the bottom spots of my roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the total number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Charlotte races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Kasey Kahne has a history of success at Charlotte, but is too erratic in 2015 to consider for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his 2015 numbers to further illustrate our formula.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

  • Average finish position last five Charlotte races: 8th place equals 36 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 5.2 equals 5.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 299 equals 29.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 91.3
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap figure: $20.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 91.3 divided by $20.75 equals 4.40 points per dollar

Below you will find the value numbers for the last five races at Charlotte. There are only a handful of races remaining in the 2015 season, so be sure to make your picks count.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.44
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.49
  • Matt Kenseth 2.38
  • Kurt Busch 1.83
  • Denny Hamlin 1.69
  • Brad Keselowski 1.68
  • Kyle Busch 1.56
  • Joey Logano 1.41
  • Dale Earnhardt 0.93

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kasey Kahne 4.40
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.18
  • Jeff Gordon 2.09
  • Carl Edwards 2.00
  • Ryan Newman 1.91
  • Jamie McMurray 1.91
  • Kyle Larson 1.18
  • Clint Bowyer 1.06
  • Paul Menard 1.03
  • Aric Almirola 0.87

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.46
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.73
  • Greg Biffle 1.00

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.26
  • Ricky Stenhouse 2.10
  • Tony Stewart 2.08
  • Trevor Bayne 2.07
  • Cole Whitt 1.68
  • Casey Mears 1.60
  • Danica Patrick 0.79

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Timmy Hill 3.60
  • Michael Annett 3.52
  • Alex Kennedy 2.73
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.62
  • Alex Bowman 2.32
  • Reed Sorenson 2.15
  • David Gilliland 1.84
  • Brett Moffitt 1.72
  • Landon Cassill 1.61
  • Josh Wise 1.49
  • JJ Yeley 1.40
  • David Ragan 0.80
  • Justin Allgaier 0.46
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 DOVER, AAA 400

With one race until the initial playoff cuts, there are some unexpected drivers facing elimination. As usual, the best strategy is to front-load your lineup with your top three drivers and round out your roster with budget options. I tried to find a balance between risky and conservative drivers in a week where anything goes for some of the top teams in the series.

From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, the results will be more unpredictable than average results at Dover. Drivers will take more risks than average behind the wheel, with their fuel strategies, and with their setups. Know if you want a conservative or risky approach this week and choose the drivers whose Chase standings match your strategy.

FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP

As usual, the first spot of my lineup is dedicated to the driver who has earned 22 top-10 finishes in his first 25 races in 2015. Kevin Harvick has found success at the Monster Mile. With three top-10 finishes in his last five Dover races, Harvick has found consistency at the track. During the same time span, Harvick is second in fast laps and laps led so he has a good chance to take advantage of those numbers. In May’s race, Harvick led 91 laps on his way to a 2nd place finish. In five steep tracks in 2015, four have resulted in a top-5 finish. With the most laps led and fast laps in 2015, Harvick has a combination of track success, track type success and 2015. That translates to a high probability of success in this week’s race. Harvick needs to win to qualify for the next round of the playoffs. He will be taking risks to win the race. This can be helpful or detrimental to your lineup. If you want a conservative approach, I would suggest another driver like Joey Logano, Matt Kenseth, or Brad Keselowski.

My next lineup recommendation is not due to 2015 success. Jimmie Johnson has 16 top-10 finishes in 2015 and a 12.2 average finish position, but has struggled in stretches. Anything short of a championship team is a disappointment for the #48 car. His track success is the reason that he gets my roster recommendation. Although he only led 23 laps during the race, Jimmie Johnson won the Dover race earlier this season. Over the last five races at the track, Johnson has earned three victories. He is first in laps led and fast laps by a wide margin during this time period. Johnson has an impressive 13 top-5 finishes at the since since 2005. Jimmie Johnson should be near the top when the checkered flag flies. With a solid run, Johnson will qualify for the next round so I can see Chad Knaus playing it safe with this team.

Kyle Busch had a forgettable race in Dover earlier this year. He was running 3rd with 25 laps left in the race when a collision with Brian Scott sent him to a 36th place finish. We are hoping for a better result this time around. Kyle Busch has earned three top-10 finishes in his last five Dover races. During these five races, Busch is 3rd in fast laps and laps led. He has seen long-term success at the track with the 2nd-most laps led at the track since 2005. In fourteen races in 2015, Kyle Busch has eight finishes inside the top-10. Unless someone changes my mind in qualifying, I will go with the 18 car for my 3rd team. Kyle Busch is at the cut line for the next round. Like Harvick, the Chase standings increase your risk, but Kyle Busch is not in the desperate situation that we see in the 4 team.

FILLING OUT THE BOTTOM

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little room for the remaining roster spots. David Ragan finished in 13th in the May race. He has a 24th place average finish position in 2015. He looks like he has the speed for most weeks, but cannot get the breaks to fall his way. Over the last five Dover races, he has a 25th place average. He provides upside as a budget option. Landon Cassill looks to be improving slightly as the season progresses. Cassill finished 23rd during the May race and has a 30th place average in 2015. Both drivers should provide value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average fantasy live points earned by race by each driver over the last five Dover races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that will dictate which drivers are expected to provide the most value this week. Brad Keselowski has earned three top-10 finishes over the last five races. He missed my lineup spot to Kyle Busch. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers to further illustrate the formula.

KYLE BUSCH AT DOVER

  • Average finish position last five Dover races: 11.6 equals 32.4 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative four equals (-4) Fantasy Live points)
  • Laps led: 109 laps led equals 10.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 109 fast laps equals 10.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 50.2
  • Fantasy Live Salary cap figure: $27.25
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 50.2 divided by $27.25 equals 1.84 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points for all drivers entered in this week’s race. Good luck as you make a push to the top of your league standings.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.50
  • Kevin Harvick 2.90
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
  • Kyle Busch 1.84
  • Brad Keselowski 1.84
  • Joey Logano 1.47
  • Denny Hamlin 1.29
  • Matt Kenseth 1.28
  • Kurt Busch 1.06

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.88
  • Clint Bowyer 2.18
  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.08
  • Kasey Kahne 1.95
  • Kyle Larson 1.88
  • Aric Almirola 1.64
  • Paul Menard 1.62
  • Carl Edwards 0.99
  • Jamie McMurray 0.93
  • Ryan Newman 0.80

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.00
  • Greg Biffle 1.10
  • Austin Dillon 0.67

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.40
  • Danica Patrick 2.23
  • Cole Whitt 1.81
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.64
  • Casey Mears 1.43
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.17
  • Justin Allgaier 0.74
  • Trevor Bayne (-0.79)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Jeb Burton 3.80
  • Brett Moffitt 3.21
  • Travis Kvapil 2.89*
  • Alex Kennedy 2.73*
  • JJ Yeley 2.55
  • David Ragan 2.39
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.22
  • Alex Bowman 2.22
  • Timmy Hill 2.06
  • Travis Kvapil 1.93
  • Josh Wise 1.84
  • David Gilliland 1.75
  • Landon Cassill 1.75
  • Michael Annett 0.39

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 NEW HAMPSHIRE, SYLVANIA 300

After one week in the Chase, teams are taking more risks to win. The risks make the races more exciting, but can be nerve-wracking for Fantasy NASCAR lineups. I am still trying to figure out how Hamlin won in Chicago, but the win came down to making the right risk at the right time. With only two races left in this round of the playoffs, the pressure is mounting to post a solid finish and advance for 15 Chase-eligible drivers.

FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP

Although there is some value available in the middle-price range drivers, my recommendation is to front-load your lineup and try to capture the laps led and fast laps statistics. Pick wisely and you are sure to move up in the standings this week and hope you find the driver who runs like Kenseth at Richmond two weeks ago. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski are three drivers who I like this week.

As per usual, my first recommendation for your Fantasy Live lineup is the Kevin Harvick. Sometimes in fantasy sports, the key to success to to avoid being cute and simply choose the favorites. This strategy has helped my team with Harvick this season, and Chicago was a rare regret for me last week. Harvick has three top-10 finishes in his last five New Hampshire starts and has an average finish position of 12.6 during this stretch. He has the 3rd-most laps led and 2nd most fast laps in these races as well. Earlier this summer, Harvick led 59 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. On similar configured tracks in 2015, Harvick has enjoyed five top-5 finishes in seven races. With 24 top-10 finishes in 2015, Harvick shows a combination of season success, track-type success, and track success. When a driver is proficient in all three areas, there is a high probability for success. With an accident sending him to the bottom of the Chase standings, Harvick will be under high pressure to finish near the top of the field. This makes him a riskier selection than most weeks, but I am going to stick with the driver who has helped me to success in 2015.

CONSIDER RESULTS FROM PREVIOUS LOUDON RACE

One of the benefits of fantasy racing at this point in the season is that you have a frame of reference from the race earlier in the season. Using this frame of reference provides the choice for the 2nd roster spot on my team. Kyle Busch led 96 laps on his way to a victory in New Hampshire in July. Over the past five races at Loudon, Busch has finished in the top-10 each time. His average finish position of 3rd over this stretch makes his the most successful driver at the race. Although he has only driven on four flat tracks this season, two have resulted in the winner’s circle. In 2015, Kyle Busch is in the top-5 in laps led through 28 races despite the fact that he missed 11 races. With one of the best cars in the field last week, I like Kyle Busch’s chances for a successful race this week.

With a 5th place average finish position in the last five Loudon races and four top-10 finishes during this stretch, Brad Keselowski is a solid option for your lineup this week. The Penske team led 100 laps on their way to a 2nd place finish in July. Keselowski has led the most laps and accumulated the most fast laps over the last five New Hampshire races. With five top-10 finishes in seven flat tracks this season, this team should be running near the top. Keselowski has been one of the top drivers this season, and is in the top-5 drivers for laps led in 2015. Keselowski needs to break out from running 8th or 9th to really help your fantasy lineup, and this track provides a good chance for him to lead some laps.

FILLING OUT THE BOTTOM

After front-loading the lineup with three high-priced favorites, there is not much room to fill out the bottom two roster spots. Based on the salary cap, I had to choose between David Ragan and David Gilliland for the fourth roster spot. In the end, I went with Ragan because I feel he offers more upside than the 38 car. Ragan qualified 3rd and finished 18th in the race earlier this season. Ragan has performed adequately on similarly configured tracks and has finished inside the top-20 three times on flat tracks. Michael Annett, with a 32nd place average finish position in New Hampshire, rounds out my roster. He finished 36th earlier this year and averages of 32nd place finish in 2015 races. Your expectations should be low for his team, and this roster spot may change after qualifying.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five New Hampshire races. Next, we divide this number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows where to expect value from each driver entered in the race. Joey Logano finished 4th in the July race, but failed to make my roster this week. As a consolation prize to one of the best drivers this year, we will use Logano’s numbers at Loudon to further illustrate the formula.

JOEY LOGANO AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Average finish position last five New Hampshire races: 19.8 equals 24.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 10.6 equals (-10.6) points per race
  • Laps led: 89 equals 8.9 points per race
  • Fast laps: 56 equals 5.6 points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 28.1
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $28.75
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 28.1 divided by $28.75 equals 0.98 points per dollar

Below you will see the points per Fantasy Live dollar for all drivers entered in this week’s race. We are set for another exciting round of the playoffs and should be some great racing in New Hampshire.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Brad Keselowski 3.62
  • Kyle Busch 2.70
  • Matt Kenseth 2.33
  • Kevin Harvick 2.01
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.79
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.10
  • Joey Logano 0.98
  • Kurt Busch 0.96
  • Denny Hamlin 0.87

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.05
  • Aric Almirola 1.80
  • Kyle Larson 1.73
  • Carl Edwards 1.64
  • Jamie McMurray 1.35
  • Clint Bowyer 1.35
  • Jeff Gordon 1.33
  • Ryan Newman 1.05
  • Kasey Kahne 1.04
  • Paul Menard 1.03

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 3.01
  • Greg Biffle 1.78

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.65
  • Tony Stewart 2.40
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.77
  • Danica Patrick 1.37
  • Casey Mears 1.28
  • Cole Whitt 1.23
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.88
  • Trevor Bayne 0.80

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 3.40
  • Josh Wise 3.28
  • Travis Kvapil 2.59
  • David Gilliland 2.56
  • Timmy Hill 2.42
  • Alex Bowman 2.11
  • Travis Kvapil 2.10
  • Brett Moffitt 2.00
  • Landon Cassill 1.33
  • David Ragan 1.22
  • Matt DiBenedetto 1.20
  • Justin Allgaier 0.57
  • Jeb Burton (-0.42)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 CHICAGOLAND, MYAFIBRISK.COM 400

The Chase has now started.

Like most weeks, you should front-load your lineup. I do not anticipate this week to be one where there is a great disparity in the standings because the laps led statistic is historically spread out. Congratulations to those of you who did not take my advice and rostered Matt Kenseth. Your standings took a hit if he missed your lineup.

The good news for Fantasy NASCAR players is that we now do not have to worry about teams experimented since the races matter now for all teams. You should concentrate on drivers who are Chase eligible since they have the most to race for in the next 10 races.

Kevin Harvick will continue to be my recommended pick for your roster. With the most laps and fast laps of any driver in 2015, Harvick provides a high probability for success every week. He also has the most top-5 finishes and the best average finish position of any driver in the series. In last year’s race at Chicago, Harvick led the most laps on his way to a 4th place finish. Harvick has three top-10 finishes in his last five races in Chicago. In eight large oval track races in 2015, Harvick has 403 laps led and 271 fast laps. Both numbers are good for the best in the series. He also boasts a 7th place average finish position and 96% of his laps inside the top-15 for similarly configured tracks. When you combine track success, track type success and 2015 success, you have a driver who you want in your lineup.

While the #2 and Brad Keselowski have not been an elite team in 2015, they are still one of the 10 best teams. Keselowski won the Chicago race in 2014, and led 62 laps on his way to the checkered flag. With three top-5 finishes in his last five Chicago races and two wins at the track, Keselowski has proven to be able to find success. On large oval tracks in 2015, Keselowski has finished inside the top-10 in all eight races. With an average finish position of 6.3 and 95% of his laps inside the top-15 for similarly tracks, Keselowski should continue his success this week in Chicago.

The decision for the third roster spot became a decision between Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, and Kyle Busch. Jimmie Johnson has the best track history, and Joey Logano has the best 2015 numbers of the three drivers. The Hendricks cars have not been as dominant, and I did not like Logano’s track numbers at Chicago. As a result, the recommended third driver is Kyle Busch. Kyle Busch finished in 7th place in 2014 while leading 46 laps during the race. He has three top-10 finishes in his last five races. With four wins in 2015, his team has proved itself to be one of the best in the series since July. While his numbers at large oval tracks is mediocre, Kyle Busch won at Kentucky earlier this season. Unless he struggles in qualifying, Kyle Busch will find his way onto my roster this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, the drawback is that there is not a lot of salary cap room for the final two roster spots. David Ragan is starting to find a pattern of having no fantasy value due to his qualifying speeds. The start-to-finish differential is hurting his value. Nonetheless, he has a 20th place average finish position over his last five Chicago races. You would be hard-pressed to find a better driver. I barely had enough budget for the fifth roster spot. This will tentatively go to Brett Moffitt, who is averaging a 30th place finish in 2015. As always, I will keep an eye on qualifying and may consider the 43rd driver in hopes of start-to-finish differential points.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, average finish position, or start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculate the number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Chicago races. Next, we divide the number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that provides us with an idea of which drivers provide value each week. Jimmie Johnson has the most laps led over the past five Chicago races, yet missed my lineup. As a consolation prize, we will use his Chicago numbers over the past five races to explain the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT CHICAGOLAND

  • Average finish position last five Chicago races: 10.8 equals 33.2 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Negative 4.6 equals negative 4.6 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps Led: 343 equals 34.3 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 217 equals 21.7 Fantasy Live points
  • Total Fantasy Live points last five Chicago races: 84.6
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $26.25
  • Points per Fantasy Dollar: 84.6 divided by $26.25 equals 3.22

Below you see the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. Suggested picks are in bold. For rookie drivers with no history at Chicagoland, we will use their 2015 numbers to provide an idea of their value. Good luck with your picks as we enter the first round of the playoffs.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 3.22
  • Brad Keselowski 2.68
  • Kyle Busch 2.07
  • Kevin Harvick 2.06
  • Matt Kenseth 1.89
  • Kurt Busch 1.54
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.08
  • Joey Logano 1.07
  • Denny Hamlin 0.99

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 3.55
  • Jeff Gordon 2.03
  • Kasey Kahne 2.01
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.66
  • Carl Edwards 1.61
  • Ryan Newman 1.56
  • Clint Bowyer 1.46
  • Jamie McMurray 1.45
  • Paul Menard 0.81
  • Greg Biffle 0.70

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 1.77
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 1.30

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Tony Stewart 3.91
  • Danica Patrick 2.34
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.24
  • Justin Allgaier 1.71
  • Trevor Bayne 1.57
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.25
  • Casey Mears 0.93
  • Cole Whitt 0.50
  • Ryan Blaney 0.48*

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Travis Kvapil 4.68
  • JJ Yeley 3.53
  • David Ragan 3.18
  • Timmy Hill 3.16
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.53*
  • Brett Moffitt 2.52*
  • Reed Sorenson 2.38
  • Jeb Burton 3.11*
  • Timmy Hill 1.89*
  • David Gilliland 1.88
  • Landon Cassill 1.62
  • Alex Bowman 1.47
  • Josh Wise 1.05
  • Brian Scott 0.52*
  • Michael Annett (-0.17)
  • Michael McDowell (-0.58)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.