Month: September 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Chicagoland Speedway, MyAFibStory.com 400

Jimmie Johnson's #48 team pit stop at Chicagoland Speedway

The field for the Chase is set with the Challenger round beginning next week at Chicagoland Speedway. Brad Keselowski leads the pack by virtue of his four wins this season after last weekend’s victory at Richmond. A race that Brad dominated, leading 383 of the 400 laps. Each driver is given three bonus points for each win they acquired during the first twenty-six races this season as they enter the Chase.

The rules of the new Chase format are pretty simple. The Chase is separated into four stages. The Challenger round, the Contender round, the Eliminator round, and the NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship round. The first three stages are each three races long, while the last race of the season will determine this year’s champion. Win and you automatically move on to the next round, the four drivers with the lowest point totals and no wins will be eliminated. An accident, mechanical failure, or mistake on pit road by driver, crew-chief, or pit crew member could eliminate a driver.

MYAFIBSTORY.COM 400

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is my pick to win the championship this season and I think he starts out the Chase with his fourth victory of the season and automatically qualifies for the next round of the Chase. He has two wins at Chicagoland and has been very fast all season. I think he runs as well as he did at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, but avoids the disaster he found at the end of that race.

Jeff Gordon: I think Jeff is the next best contender of the Chase field. Jeff has been very consistent on all types of tracks this season and won three races so far. He also has a win at Chicagoland Speedway and has shown a lot of speed on this type of track. Jeff has won four championships in his career, but none of those have come under the Chase format.

Joey Logano: Both Joey and Brad Keselowski have had great seasons. I believe Joey has been better than Brad on the intermediate tracks though and I think he will have another great car once again this weekend. This team has won three races already this season and they have the confidence that they can compete for the championship this year.

Brad Keselowski: Brad leads the series in victories, so that gives him a three point lead heading into the Chase. This team has had a fast car all season and should easily make it into the second round as long as they don’t have a disaster on the track. They haven’t really had many tire issues or engine issues all year and that eliminates that issue from a drivers mind.

Jimmie Johnson: Let’s not forget about the six time champion as we head into the Chase. This team hasn’t been on the top of their game much of the season, but they know how to win championships. They have run a little better over the past five or six races and just need to find a little more to get back to their winning ways. While Jimmie has never won a race at Chicagoland, he has finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here. That alone gives them confidence heading to this track this weekend.

Ryan Newman: Ryan is currently in the final spot of the Chase by virtue of the tiebreaker of how many top five finishes he has had on the season. This means virtually nothing as the Chase starts and I think Ryan has the mindset not to worry about things like that anyway. Ryan has won a race at this track and has finished in the top ten in eight of his twelve starts here. This is a sleeper team to watch right now.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has won a race here and has run very well on the intermediate tracks all season. They need to make one more adjustment that will help them to win one of these races seeing there are so many of them in the Chase. I think this team has a chance at winning a championship this season, but I think they are going to have to win at least one more race to do it.

Tony Stewart: Tony leads all drivers with three wins at this track. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his twelve starts here and only Jimmie Johnson has lead more laps at Chicagoland than Tony over their careers. Tony is my dark horse to win this race and get his team on the right track for next season.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won the race at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and that victory propelled him into the Chase. The track at Chicago is very similar to the Atlanta track, so this team should come with a good setup already under their car. They are going to need to win races to stay in contention because they haven’t been consistent enough to keep making it through the elimination rounds without wins.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won the first two races of the Chase last season including the race at Chicago. This is the closest track to Matt’s hometown of Cambridge, Wisconsin and he would love to get another victory to move himself into the next round and make his local fans very happy. I think this team is consistent enough and can start winning races during the Chase to be serious contenders for the championship.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Ryan Newman
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Joey Logano
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Carl Edwards

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Richmond, Federated Auto Parts 400

NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase celebration Richmond

Due to an unfortunate crash late in the race, Kevin Harvick had a 19th place finish and a 1st place fantasy live finish at Atlanta. One positive aspect of the Fantasy Live points system is that dominant performers with bad luck are still rewarded. I was able to see Kasey Kahne’s first victory of the season in person, and my ears are still ringing as I write this article. Richmond is the last chance to punch a ticket to the Chase for the twenty-seven teams on the outside looking in. Richmond is also a short track. From a Fantasy Live perspective, this translates to a scoring system that will benefit the best cars more than average. This week, you need to focus on three top drivers and fill the remaining two roster spots with the best value drivers remaining.

Some weeks are challenging to find the three top drivers who stand out statistically at a race. This week, however, three drivers jumped out as the best options. Since 2005, three drivers have combined to lead 3,342 laps! Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick are at the top three drivers for most historical statistics at Richmond. All three competitors have a high probability for success.

Harvick was dialed in last week, and his pit crew let him down throughout the race. At Richmond, he has run in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and maintains an average running position of 7.8. He is third for all drivers in laps led, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. His average finish position of 8.8 since 2005 is second in the series. When track data combines with a successful 2014 campaign, there is s high probability for success.

Although he has been slightly inconsistent at Richmond for the last three years with a `16th place average finish position, Denny Hamlin is a must start. Denny has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September races. This statistic is worth repeating for emphasis: Denny Hamlin has averaged 111.2 Fantasy Live points per race over the past five September starts. With 1390 laps led since 2005, Hamlin is 459 laps more than the second-best driver. Hamlin is also the best driver in the series in average running position, fast laps, and lap-to-lap performance. Hamlin’s upside is too high to ignored and should be in your lineup.

Jeff Gordon was a tempting choice due to his recent performance at the track, but Kyle Busch still gets the nod over Gordon this week. Since 2005, Kyle Busch has an average finish position of seventh and has finished in the top five an astounding thirteen times in the last nineteen Richmond races. Like Hamlin, Kyle Busch has run in the top 15 for 87% of his laps. He is second in the series in fast laps, laps led, and lap-to-lap performance. The biggest drawback with this pick is his overall 2014 performance, but I will place him in the third spot due to his consistency at Richmond.

The three drivers were easy to choose, and we need to complete the last two roster spots with value options. I was able to upgrade from Landon Cassill to David Ragan for one position. David Ragan has averaged a 24th place finish over the past five September races. David Gilliland has a 27th place average in the same time span. Neither number is impressive, but results is enough fantasy points per dollar to serve as adequate performers. I wanted to make a run at AJ Allmendinger this week, but there simply was not enough cap room to make the move I wanted.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast laps, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. The salary cap format prevents us from simply selecting the best drivers every week. Our formula for fantasy live points per dollar simply averages a driver’s points over the last five races at the track and divides that number by the alary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar. Jeff Gordon has led the fourth-most laps since 2005 and was the odd man out for a roster spot. We will use his statistics to help clarify our formula.

JEFF GORDON AT RICHMOND

  • Average finish position last five starts at Richmond: 5th place = 39 fantasy live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 equals 4 fantasy live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Laps Led: 155 laps = 15.5 fantasy live points per race
  • Total points per race: 58.5
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 58.5 / $28 = 2.79 fantasy points per dollar

For rookies with no September history at the track, we will use their statistics from the race earlier this year at Richmond. These projections are also useful in choosing Yahoo lineups because the number take into account more data points than only the final position. See our fantasy live projections below with this week’s lineup in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jeff Gordon 2.79
  • Carl Edwards 2.39
  • Kevin Harvick 2.30
  • Clint Bowyer 1.80
  • Kyle Busch 1.62
  • Brad Keselowski 1.23
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.15
  • Matt Kenseth 1.09
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.60
  • Kasey Kahne 0.60
  • Joey Logano 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 4.89
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.22
  • Tony Stewart 2.13
  • Ryan Newman 2.03
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.66
  • Jamie McMurray 1.40
  • Greg Biffle 1.33
  • Paul Menard 0.88
  • Brian Vickers 0.85
  • Aric Almirola 0.71
  • Austin Dillon 0.71
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.65
  • Kyle Larson 0.60

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Justin Allgaier 2.20
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.83
  • Casey Mears 1.49
  • Danica Patrick 1.29

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 1.90
  • David Gilliland 1.80

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 2.21
  • Alex Bowman 1.41
  • Reed Sorenson 1.14
  • Cole Whitt 0.37
  • Michael Annett 0.11
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Richmond International Raceway, Federated Auto Parts 400

Jeff Gordon and Kurt Busch at Richmond

And then there was one! Congratulation to Kasey Kahne on winning his first race of the season and qualifying for the Chase. Fourteen of the Chase spots have been locked in, but two are still open. Right now Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle sit in those spots with one to go. Clint Bowyer and Kyle Larson are close enough in points to overtake either of those drivers by points, but we could still get another new winner on the season at Richmond which will eliminate another spot unless the driver is Matt Kenseth. Ryan has the best chance of making the Chase on points as of now, with a nineteen point lead on Greg, forty-two over Bowyer, and forty-three over Larson. One of these four drivers will get in on points no matter who wins the race and two of them can make it with a repeat winner or a Kenseth win. It looks like it will be another no holds barred race at Richmond this Saturday night.

FEDERATED AUTO PARTS 400

Richmond International Raceway is a 3/4-mile D-shaped oval asphalt racetrack that is considered quite flat by NASCAR standards. Jeff Gordon set a track record here last year with a qualifying lap of 130.599 mph and I think that record might fall this weekend. This could be one of the most exciting races of the season, so try not to miss it.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this week at Richmond. He has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in well over half of his starts at this track. This team has been solid all season and would like to get that extra bonus point for wins heading into the Chase next week. Jeff lead the most laps in the spring race here on his way to a second place finish, which I think he will improve on this weekend.

Brad Keselowski: This is Brad’s type of track to race on. He loves the short, flat tracks and would like to build some momentum heading into the Chase. He has lead a lot of laps in the last two races at this track, so I think he has a good idea on how to make it around here quickly. If he can stay out of trouble early he should be in contention at the end of the race.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won four races at this track, has finished in the top five in thirteen of his nineteen starts, and finished third this spring here. He is by far the most consistent driver at this track and I would have picked him for the win, but lately he has been way too hot headed on the track. He needs to control his emotions if he really wants to have a chance at winning a championship. He is a great pick if you are trying to make a move in your fantasy league.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has three career wins at Richmond and dominated the race at Atlanta last weekend until he was involved in a crash on a green/white/checker restart at the end of the race. This team has brought a car capable of winning every week this season and Kevin is my odds on favorite to win the championship this season. He has finished in the top ten in sixteen of his twenty-seven starts here and lead twenty-three laps in the spring race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has also won three races at this track with the last of those coming back in 2006. He hasn’t been real consistent here throughout his career, but the way he has run this season, we can throw out what he was like in the past. This team has a legitimate shot at winning the title this season and another win this weekend would make the other Chase drivers see what this team is capable of.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has two career wins here and looked very good at Atlanta last weekend. We don’t really know if the teams that qualified for the Chase early in the year were doing some experimenting once they were in, or if they just weren’t on the same page. We are going to find out starting this weekend if this team might have been laying in the weeds and are now ready to try and win a championship. Denny has always been good on the flat tracks and we will see if they are going to be a serious contender this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has won two races at Richmond during his career and a win this weekend is his best shot a making the Chase. This team knows that and is going to come with an all or nothing attitude. They will take every chance they can as the race progresses to put themselves in a position to win this race and take one of the last two spots in the Chase. Don’t count him out yet.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has three career wins at this track and they all came during the 2007 and 2008 seasons. This team is another team that had struggled after winning three races in a short stretch earlier this season. Once again, were they doing some testing after that, or did they just struggle to find handling and speed? They have run much better this past month and I think they will be fine once the Chase starts.

Carl Edwards: Carl won this race last season and this team has looked better lately. They seem to have found some speed on the intermediate tracks and have been good on the short tracks all year. I think they have a good shot at winning the race this weekend and grabbing some momentum as the Chase looms. Even though this is Carl’s last season at Roush/Fenway Racing, I think they will do everything in their power to make Carl a contender.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is locked into the Chase, but is still looking for his first win of the season. He would like nothing better than to get it this weekend just so he can get a bonus point at the start of the Chase. He has never won a race at Richmond, but has finished in the top seven here in each of the last four races. They have looked very good over the past month and just need to make that one last correct adjustment late in the race and have the cautions fall right for them to get their first win on the season.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Ryan Newman
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Jeff Gordon
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Brad Keselowski
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Carl Edwards

Dark Horse: Tony Stewart

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch