Month: September 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

Kyle Busch climbs from his tore up race car at Kansas Speedway

The 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Challenger Round is over and the Contender round starts next week at Kansas Speedway. AJ Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, and Aric Almirola have been eliminated from the Chase. The twelve drivers that advance will all have their points reset to 3,000 and the four drivers who are lowest in points among those twelve that don’t win one of the next three races will be eliminated and will not advance to the third round.

The next two races will be run on mile and a half tracks and the third race of the Contender round will be a restrictor plate race at Talladega. You can bet that the remaining Chase drivers want to be locked into the next round before they get to Talladega. That means that the race this week at Kansas Speedway is very important to all of these drivers. Kansas Speedway is very similar to Chicagoland Speedway, which was where the first Chase race was run this season, so those who did well at Chicago should do well once again this weekend.

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

Jimmie Johnson: I am going to pick Jimmie to win the first race of the Contender round. Jimmie has two career wins at Kansas Speedway and has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his sixteen starts. Those are very impressive stats and I think this team is going to take the next step towards moving on the the next round of the Chase this weekend. They seem to be getting a little better every week and have found some of the speed they had lost over the middle of the season.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three races at Kansas and is really looking like a championship contender. After winning the race at Dover last weekend, this team has momentum and confidence on their side. I look for Jeff to run towards the front of the pack all day on Sunday and have a shot at the win in the final laps. Jeff has also finished in the top ten here in twelve of his seventeen starts.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won two races at Kansas and this team, which is still looking for their first win of the season, just keeps finishing in the top ten every week and moving along. All they have to do is keep qualifying for the next round and then win their first race of the season at Homestead and Matt will have another championship to celebrate. They need to find a little bit more speed though to do it.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race last year, finished second here this spring, sat on the pole here for the last two races, and has been fast all season. I look for him to once again qualify in the top five and perhaps win another pole. They just need to have their luck change a little bit and they will find themselves back in victory lane very soon.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run at this track. They need to improve on their performance as the Chase continues and I think they will do that over the next three races. Dale is very good at all of the tracks he will visit during this stage of the Chase. Even though he has never won at Kansas, this is the type of track he excels at.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won a race at Kansas in 2011 and he won the first Chase race at Chicagoland. Like I said earlier, this track is very much like Chicagoland and the drivers that ran well there will have an advantage with their setups when they get to the track this week. Brad has been fast in all of the Chase races and leads the series in wins this season with five so far.

Joey Logano: Joey won the second Chase race and should have a fast car once again this weekend. Both of the Penske cars have shown a lot of speed all year and even though Joey has struggled at Kansas for much of his career, he has finished in the top five in his last two starts here.

Carl Edwards: Carl has been really good at Kansas during his career, finishing in the top ten in ten of his fourteen starts there. However, this team has really struggled to find speed on this type of track for most of the year and they will need to find it soon with most of this segment of the Chase being run on this type of track. I think there are better drivers to choose for your team this week.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey overcame some problems last week at Dover and races his way into the Contender round by not giving up. Now he heads to Kansas where he has been very good lately with five top ten finishes in his last six starts. This team could win one of the next two races and propel themselves into the third round of the Chase. These are the types of tracks where Kasey has been very good his whole career.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Joey Logano
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Dover International Speedway, AAA 400

Ricky Stenhouse Jr wrecked NASCAR Dover

Both of the Penske drivers have won a race in the Chase and are guaranteed a place in the next round after Joey Logano won the race on Sunday at New Hampshire. Many of the other Chase drivers found a lot of trouble on the track and now they have one race to move into the top twelve in the standings or they will be eliminated from the Chase. Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Jeff Gordon, and Matt Kenseth were all involved in crashes that put them in a precarious position heading to Dover this week.

AAA 400

The first elimination race will be held at Dover International Speedway, which is a one-mile concrete oval with a lot of banking in the corners also known as the Monster Mile. The last five Chase spots are going to be up for grabs as all of the drivers from eighth to sixteenth are all within twelve points of each other. A mistake on the track or on pit road will end the season for a driver, so all of the drivers who are in the eighth thru sixteenth positions will be nervous next weekend.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is my pick to get back to his winning ways this weekend at Dover. Jimmie has won the last two races at this track and has nine career wins here. This team knows that they are going to have to win races during the Chase to have any chance of winning another championship and they will get their first win of the Chase this weekend.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has four career wins at this track and has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. Jeff should remain in the top twelve in points no matter where he finishes in this race, but would love to pick up his first win of the Chase and gain some points Brad Keselowski as the Chase continues.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has also finished in the top five here in three of his last four starts including a win in this race two years ago. He is already locked in the next round by virtue of his win at Chicagoland in the first race of the Chase and leads the point standings right now.

Joey Logano: Joey picked up his fourth win of the season and first of the Chase as he heads to Dover this weekend. Joey has not won a race at Dover yet, but he has run well there lately. He has five straight top ten finishes and just needs to stay in contention and pick up a few points each week on those ahead of him in the standings. Both of the Penske drivers look very good so far during the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin is another driver who has yet to win a race at Dover. Kevin has finished in the top ten in three of his last five starts here. This team has had a car that could contend for a win almost every week this season and need to pick up some wins during the Chase to keep advancing.

Clint Bowyer: Clint hasn’t won a race yet this season and didn’t make the Chase, but that doesn’t mean this team won’t win any races during the Chase. Clint has finished in the top ten in seven straight races at Dover and they will be confident heading into the weekend. Clint is a great driver and just needs to have luck on his side to get a win this year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale finished second in this race last season and has finished in the top eleven in his last five starts at Dover. This team needs to run a little better to keep advancing and giving themselves a shot to win the championship. I think this week will be the one where they get back to having a contending car and that will give them confidence moving forward.

Matt Kenseth: Matt is currently in eighth place in the standings, but only eight points ahead of Denny Hamlin and Greg Biffle who are tied in points and sit in thirteenth and fourteenth place heading to the final race of the Challenger round of the Chase. Matt has run well at Dover recently finishing in the top ten in five of his last seven starts. He needs another top ten finish to make sure he moves into the Contender round.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has won two races at this track during his career and showed me that he can remain calm and is able to fight back from adversity, which is something you need to do to stay in contention. After being involved in a wreck last week at Loudon, Kyle fought back the remainder of the race and salvaged a top ten finish. He has finished in the top ten at Dover in seven of his last nine starts.

Kyle Larson: Kyle has been in contention in a lot of races lately and he finished eleventh in his only start at Dover back in June. Kyle looks like he is going to win a race very soon and wrap up rookie of the year honors. He seems to have a good head on his shoulders when he is interviewed after an accident and doesn’t get upset over things he can’t control. This guy is just going to keep getting better as his career progresses.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Denny Hamlin

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Joey Logano
  4. Matt Kenseth
  5. Clint Bowyer

Dark Horse: Clint Bowyer

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Sylvania 300

NASCAR Fantasy Live for New Hampshire Motor Speedway

We have completed one race of the new NASCAR playoff format and the only driver who is safe to advance is Brad Keselowski. He earned the win threading Kyle Larson and Jeff Gordon in an exciting Chicago finish. This week, we head back north to Loudon, a short flat track that will benefit most of the top drivers in the series. For Fantasy NASCAR enthusiasts, we have one less week to hold a lead or gain on our competition. My suggested strategy this week is the same as most races: Choose your three favorite drivers and fill in the remaining salary cap with the best possible budget drivers for the final two spots.

Two drivers from the Hendrick team are on the top of my list this week. Images are dashing through my head of Jimmie Johnson flat tires, but he remains one the most consistent drivers at New Hampshire. Since 2005, Johnson has the most fast laps and the second-most laps led. Johnson has finished in the Top Ten for 20 of his last 27 races. While running in the Top 15 for 82% of his laps since 2005, Johnson is a consistent driver and has a high probability for success.

Johnson’s teammate, Jeff Gordon, is the second choice for this week’s team. Like Johnson, Gordon has shown consistency at the track with a series-best 86% of his laps in the Top 15 since 2005. Gordon is second in the series in fast laps during this same time span. Gordon is one of the best drivers in the Sprint Cup in 2014, and expectations are high for him.

Last week, I suggested starting Keselowski because Brad Keselowski with an average history at a track is a recipe for success in 2014. Keselowski can run at New Hampshire with the fifth-best average finish position since 2005. His team has four victories already in 2014, and he is a frontrunner for a win every week.

Choosing three of the top drivers in the series leaves little salary cap room for the final two drivers. Reed Sorenson is at a budget value of $7.50 and has seen moderate success at the track. With Top 20 finishes in 6 of his 18 starts, he has proven the ability to be competitive. I am not anticipating a Top 20 finish out of Sorenson, but even a 30th place finish would provide value for him. I was between two rookies for the final spot on my roster. Alex Bowman actually had six fast laps earlier this year, but he is so risky that I am leaning towards a safer rookie. Michael Annett keeps me under the salary cap and has not disappointed me this year when he has been on my roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, final position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply selecting a super team, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. In order to locate potential value, our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver and divides that number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number to give you an idea how many Fantasy Live points to expect for each of your fantasy dollars. Denny Hamlin has a great history of success at New Hampshire. I wanted him on my roster, but unfortunately he missed the cut for the drivers listed above. As a consolation prize, we will use Hamlin’s historical data at New Hampshire to illustrate this formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT NEW HAMPSHIRE

  • Total laps led last five September New Hampshire races: 215 laps equals 21.5 points per race
  • Fast laps: cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position last five years: 9th place equals 35 points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 4 differential equals four points per race
  • Total Fantasy Live points per race: 60.5
  • Denny Hamlin Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $23.00
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 60.5 / $23 = 2.63 points per dollar

Please see each driver’s points per dollar below. For rookies, we are using their numbers from the race earlier this year to give you an idea what to expect from them. This week’s suggested picks are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Clint Bowyer 2.18
  • Matt Kenseth 1.86
  • Jeff Gordon 1.68
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.43
  • Kyle Busch 1.38
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.27
  • Carl Edwards 1.22
  • Kevin Harvick 0.98
  • Joey Logano 0.97
  • Kasey Kahne 0.86

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Denny Hamlin 2.63
  • Kyle Larson 2.29
  • Tony Stewart 2.09
  • Austin Dillon 1.86
  • Brian Vickers 1.70
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.62
  • Greg Biffle 1.58
  • Ryan Newman 1.35
  • Jamie McMurray 1.31
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.13
  • Kurt Busch 1.06
  • Aric Almirola 1.05
  • Marcus Ambrose 0.93
  • Paul Menard 0.61

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.60
  • Danica Patrick 1.59
  • Casey Mears 0.60
  • Justin Allgaier (-0.33)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 1.91
  • David Gilliland 1.04

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Ryan Truex 2.42
  • Cole Whitt 2.14
  • Alex Bowman 2.12
  • Michael Annett 2.05
  • Landon Cassill 0.93
  • Reed Sorenson 0.67
  • Joe Nemecheck 0.13
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Sylvania 300

brad keselowski new hampshire motor speedway

Congratulations to Brad Keselowski on winning the first race of the Chase and qualifying for the second round. Aric Almirola took the biggest hit after losing an engine while running in the top ten late in the race. Aric will have his work cut out for him now if he wants to make it to the next round. I think that he is going to have to win one of the next two races to move on.

The series will head back to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the running of the Sylvania 300. NHIS is a flat, slightly longer than one-mile oval speedway. Brad won the race here earlier this season and this team looks like they are on a roll right now with back-to-back wins. However, it is early in the Chase and there are still two more races in the first segment and then three more segments after that, so anything can happen yet.

SYLVANIA 300

Brad Keselowski: I have to pick Brad to win his third straight race this weekend and pad his point lead. Brad is always good on these short, flat tracks and like I said, this team is hitting on all cylinders right now. Brad has also finished in the top eleven in his last six starts at this track, which tells me he has something figured out here.

Matt Kenseth: Matt won this race last season and this team looks like it is getting close to visiting victory lane once again. Even though they haven’t won yet this season, this team still believes that they can start winning races during the Chase and win a championship. I think they will be in contention at the end of this race and if they have everything go their way they can make it to the winners circle.

Jimmie Johnson: This is another team that seems to be getting better every week and is ready to win another race. Jimmie has won three races at this track and has finished in the top ten in four of his last five starts here. Jimmie and Chad Knaus communicate better than any other team in the series and Chad knows what changes to make to give Jimmie the car he wants to drive.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff had another outstanding run last week at Chicagoland and seems to run even better on the short tracks this year. Jeff will be in contention the whole race once again and would like to get a win to automatically qualify for the next round. I think they will make the next round without a win, but a win gives you the additional points, which will start playing a larger role the further we get into the Chase.

Kevin Harvick: Let’s not forget about Kevin. This team has been fast all season and has had a great handling car to go along with that speed. However, this team has struggled at this track over their last twelve races here. In that time they have only lead one lap and they won their only race here back in 2006. This might be a race where they don’t try to win if they don’t have a good car in practice, but instead they will just try and stay out of trouble and on the lead lap. They will advance with points if they can avoid an accident.

Denny Hamlin: Denny won this race two seasons ago and this team looks better and better every week. He has finished in the top ten in eleven of his seventeen career starts and seven of those finishes were top five’s including two wins. I think you are going to have to win at least one race during the Chase to win the championship and this is one of the tracks that this team has on their calendar to compete for the win at.

Joey Logano: Joey struggled for much of the race last weekend at Chicago ,but he fought all day long and came away with a top five finish as he finished fourth as he blew an engine just as he crossed the finish line. The main thing for the teams that are running the Doug Yates engines are figuring why Joey and Aric Almirola both lost their engines late in the race. Mechanical failures will take you out of championship contention in a hurry.

Ryan Newman: Ryan had a good car last week at Chicago until he blew a tire and then had to fight back the rest of the race. He did a great job of that and salvaged a fifteenth place finish. Now this team heads to one of their best tracks. Ryan has won three races at this track and has finished in the top ten an outstanding sixteen times in only twenty-five starts. This is a driver you definitely want on your team this weekend.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished second in the last three races at Loudon. This team needs to get back to their winning ways, which will go a long way towards making their driver happy once again. Kyle needs to learn to control his emotions a little better and fight through adversity, which is what a driver needs to do if he is going to win a championship in this new format.

Clint Bowyer: Clint has won two races at this track during his career and almost pulled off a win at Richmond two weeks ago on a similar track. Even though they are not in the Chase that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to try to win races the rest of the season. Clint is my dark horse this week.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kyle Busch
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Ryan Newman
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brian Vickers

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Kyle Larson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT NEW HAMPSHIRE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Denny Hamlin/li>
  4. Ryan Newman
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Clint Bowyer

Stay Away From: Joey Logano

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Chicagoland, MYAFIBSTORY.COM 400

2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase drivers

Last week, Fantasy Live was separated into two groups: those who started Brad Keselowski and those who did not start Brad Keselowski. The dominating effort prevented drivers from sneaking into the Chase with a win. The playoff lineup is set at Chicago, and we get the see the drivers in the new playoff format for the first time. There was only one driver I liked this week, and the other four roster spots were designated to two top drivers and two bottom feeders. My recommendation, like most weeks, is to pick your three favorite drivers and fill your last two spots with the best drivers available.

My favorite driver this week has almost triple the amount of laps led over the last five years compared to the second-best driver in this category. Since 2005, Jimmie Johnson has an average running position of 7.1 and has run in the top 15 for 87% of his laps. Johnson has finished in the top 10 for seven of his last nine races. As long as he does not have a tire issue, I like Jimmie Johnson as a top driver this week.

After watching Brad Keselowski drive lap after lap in first place at Richmond, my subconscious is making him my second pick. Keselowski has a fourth place average finish position at the track over the past three years. Since 2005, Keselowski has the seventh-most laps led and fast laps. These numbers are not great, but Brad Keselowski with an average track history in 2014 still has a high probability for success. The third selection for my roster has led the second-most laps over the last five years and has now won a race in 2014. Matt Kenseth has been steady with an average running position of 10.3 and 72% of his laps in the top 15.

With three of the highest salary cap drivers on my roster, there is little cap room for the remaining two drivers. Reed Sorenson has an average running position of 24.7 and has recently led 6 laps at the track. He gets a slight edge over Landon Cassill, who only has a 31st place average finish at the track. With limited salary cap funds available, the fifth slot will go to Michael Annett. With a 28th place average finish in 2014, Annett does not need too much to provide value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply selecting the top drivers every week, the website uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of fantasy live points over the past five years divided by the driver’s salary cap figure. The final number gives us an idea how many fantasy live points to expect from each salary cap dollar. Tony Stewart has great track data at Chicago, but is still a risky pick. Because he is the odd man out on my roster, we will use his Chicago data to illustrate our formula.

TONY STEWART AT CHICAGOLAND

  • Total laps led last five years at Chicago: 4 laps equals 0.4 points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Average finish position: 5th place average equals 39 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 18 equals 18 fantasy live points per race
  • Total points per race: 57.4
  • Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure $22.25
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 57.4 divides by 22.25 equals 2.58 fantasy live points per race

Please see each driver’s fantasy points per dollar below. We will use the 2014 history for rookie drivers with no historical data at Chicago to give you an idea what to expect from them. This week’s suggested picks are in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 2.49
  • Clint Bowyer 1.68
  • Kasey Kahne 1.67
  • Matt Kenseth 1.57
  • Kevin Harvick 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.55
  • Carl Edwards 1.49
  • Kyle Busch 1.45
  • Kurt Busch 1.40
  • Jeff Gordon 1.25
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.90
  • Joey Logano 0.79

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Tony Stewart 2.58
  • Ryan Newman 1.65
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.63
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.61
  • Austin Dillon 1.38
  • Kyle Larson 1.23
  • Jamie McMurray 1.13
  • Aric Almirola 1.09
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.06
  • Denny Hamlin 0.97
  • Brian Vickers 0.80
  • Paul Menard 0.70
  • Greg Biffle 0.45

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Danica Patrick 1.90
  • Justin Allgaier 1.73
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.26
  • Casey Mears 0.65

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.76
  • Cole Whitt 1.58
  • David Gilliland 1.33

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 2.38
  • Landon Cassill 1.87
  • Alex Bowman 1.53
  • Reed Sorenson 0.97