Month: May 2014

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Dover International, FedEx 400

With his first win of the season during the 600-mile Charlotte race on Memorial Day weekend, Jimmie Johnson hopes to continue his winning streak. Now that the 2014 season is a third of the way complete, drivers without a victory will be taking more risks to punch their ticket for the chase. NASCAR moves north to the Monster Mile in Dover this weekend. With ten winners in twelve races, the door remains open for another race winner in 2014.

Dover is a relatively predictable track. Historically, drivers finish close to where we expect them to finish. Over the last five years, Johnson has led over 200 laps four times. Last year, he led his lowest total with 143. Over the last five spring races, Johnson has led 881 more laps than the second-best driver (Kyle Busch). The big question is which other drivers you will choose this week.

The majority of the top drivers are averaging between 1.5 and 2 points per fantasy dollar. Beyond Johnson, your picks at the top are more dependent on personal preference over statistical probability since the numbers are close. Kevin Harvick is consistent at Dover with an 8.8 average finish over the last five years. Kyle Busch led 150 laps last year and should be considered.

There are some potential bargains at the bottom of the list. With the top drivers having success, finding great bargains at Dover is challenging. One option is Reed Sorenson, who has averaged a 25th place finish. Though not particularly impressive, Sorenson is valuable due to his low price tag of $6.75. David Ragan is not exceptional either at Dover with a 24th place average; however, he has good value due to his $10.50 price.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com uses a salary cap format in order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week. Points are awarded for a combination of average finish position, fast laps, laps led, and start-to-finish position differential. This article calculates the total number of points a driver earns and divides the point total by the salary cap amount on NASCAR.com. We can determine how many points to expect from each fantasy dollar.

For further clarification, let’s look at this week’s numbers for Jimmie Johnson.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT DOVER

  • Total laps led last five spring races: 1,162 (232.4 laps per race)
  • Fantasy points per race for laps led: 116.2 (1 point for every two laps led)
  • Start position to finish position differential: 1
  • Fantasy points for average finish position: 36 points for an eighth place average
  • Total fantasy points per race; 151.2
  • Jimmie Johnson current fantasy value per NASCAR.com: $27.50
  • Fantasy points per dollar: 151.2/27.5 = 5.5

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Jimmie Johnson 5.5 points/fantasy dollar
  • Kyle Busch 1.97
  • Clint Bowyer 1.72
  • Carl Edwards 1.72
  • Kevin Harvick 1.67
  • Matt Kenseth 1.66
  • Jeff Gordon 1.57
  • Brad Keselowski 1.37
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.23
  • Joey Logano 1.16
  • Kasey Kahne 0.62

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Aric Almirola 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.98
  • Tony Stewart 1.91
  • Greg Biffle 1.71
  • Marcus Ambrose 1.52
  • Kyle Larson 1.33
  • Kurt Busch 1.17
  • Brian Vickers 1.17
  • Paul Menard 0.97
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.92
  • Denny Hamlin 0.81
  • Ryan Newman 0.75
  • Austin Dillon 0.71
  • Jamie McMurray 0.66

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • Danica Patrick 2.19 points/fantasy dollar
  • Casey Mears 1.55
  • Justin Allgaier 1.44
  • AJ Allmendinger 0.33

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.75)

  • David Ragan 2 points/fantasy dollar
  • David Gilliland 0.64

GROUP E ($10.00 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.28 points/fantasy dollar
  • Josh Wise 1.87
  • Michael Annett 1.84
  • Cole Whitt 1.58
  • Alex Bowman 1.53
  • JJ Yeley 1.23
  • Ryan Truex 0.84
  • Landon Cassill 0.63
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Dover International Speedway, FedEx 400 Benefiting Autism Speaks

We are a third of the way through the 2014 season and Jimmie Johnson just became the tenth driver to win a race this year. There are a few notable drivers who don’t have a win yet this season including, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Kasey Kahne just to name a few. Will NASCAR get six more winners in the next fourteen races to fill all of the Chase spots?

This week the series heads to Dover International Speedway which is one of my favorite tracks on the circuit. DIS is a one-mile concrete oval with twenty-four degrees of banking in the corners. Qualifying means a lot at this track as sixty-eight of the eighty-eight race winners have started in the top ten. You don’t want to start towards the back and get lapped early in the race because of an ill handling car.

FEDEX 400 BENEFITING AUTISM SPEAKS

Jimmie Johnson: Now that Jimmie has a win under his belt he might just win a bunch of races in the coming weeks. He has more wins than any other driver, eight, at this track and won the race here last fall. I am picking him to get his second straight win of the year this weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint is one of the drivers still looking for his first win of the season and Dover is a good place for him to get it. Clint has finished in the top ten in his last six starts at this track and would like nothing better than to have a great run and get himself qualified for the Chase this weekend. He will need to do a better job of qualifying to have a legitimate shot at heading to victory lane though.

Joey Logano: Joey has four straight top ten finishes at Dover. The big problem for him here is that he has lead only one lap in the ten races he has run at this track. He needs to have a dominant car right from the beginning of the race so that he can stay up front. As I said before, if you start in the back it doesn’t bode well for a good finishing position.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff still leads the point standings and has always been good at Dover. He has four career wins here and has finished in the top five in his last three starts at Dover. This team wants to get another win and improve on their lead as we get closer to the Chase. Jimmie is the only active driver to lead more laps at Dover than Jeff.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has two career wins here and has finished in the top ten in seven of his last eight starts. This is the type of track that Kyle loves to run on. The high banking in the corners gives him the option of passing high or low as he always has a great handling car at Dover.

Tony Stewart: Tony won this race last year, but he only lead a total of three laps in that race. Early in his career he was one of the dominant drivers at Dover each time he ran here. Lately he has struggle mightily here, only leading nine laps in his last eighteen starts. This team needs to shake things up a bit, because Tony has the same equipment that Kevin Harvick has and he should be able to run just as well every week.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has finished in the top ten in nineteen of thirty races he has run at Dover, including two wins. If he can stay out of trouble and avoid mechanical failures early in the race he will be in contention at the end of the race. There are still fourteen races before the start of the Chase, but this team would like to get their first win of the season as soon as possible.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has had a fast car each and every week this season. Although he has never won a Sprint Cup race at Dover he has finished in the top ten in six of his last eight starts there. The way this team has been running all year I wouldn’t put it past Kevin to pick up his first career victory here this weekend.

Greg Biffle: Greg is another driver who is chomping at the bit to visit victory lane for the first time this season. He has won here before and always seems to have a good car during practices and qualifying. he just needs a little luck to stay out of harms way early in the race and make the right adjustments at the end to give him a shot at the checkered flag.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale finished second to Jimmie Johnson last September at Dover and has a win to his credit at this track. This team is looking to rebound from a mechanical failure last week in Charlotte. It is imperative that they qualify well this week and keep up on their adjustments as the track changes during the race. Do that, stay out of trouble early, and you have a shot at the win.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Joey Logano
  • Greg Biffle
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DOVER INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Clint Bowyer
  5. Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

2014 NASCAR Brad Keselowski Coca-Cola 600

After taking a week off in Fantasy NASCAR due to the All-Star race, the action returns to Charlotte Motor Speedway on Memorial Day weekend.

Fantasy NASCAR players are generally hoping that this week’s race is as predictable as Kansas, where most of the top drivers performed as expected. Many of the top drivers have a history of success at the Charlotte and we could see high point totals this week.

Nascar.com Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format for its fantasy league. In order to prevent players from choosing the top drivers every week, the website provides a $100 salary cap. The scoring format combines point totals from start position to finish position differential, laps led, fast laps, and final position.

This article looks at the total points for the last five Charlotte spring races, and divides that number by the league salary cap figure. This final number shows the amount of points to expect per salary cap dollar for every driver.

Please note that fast laps cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy. For additional clarification, see the details for Kasey Kahne in Charlotte.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

KASEY KAHNE AT CHARLOTTE

Kasey Kahne’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Average starting position to finish position differential at Charlotte: (-1)
  • Combined spring Charlotte laps led last five years: 285 (57 laps per race)
  • Average laps led fantasy points per race: 28.5
  • Average finish position last five years: 8th (36 points)
  • Average points per race last five years: 63.5
  • Salary Cap Figure per Fantasy Live: $25.25
  • Points per fantasy dollar: 2.52

Kahne has struggled for most of 2014, but Charlotte is his best track. With an average finish of 8.8 over the last five years, Kahne is the most consistent driver. His car looked excellent in the All-Star race. His points-per-fantasy-dollar number of 2.52 is second only to Kurt Busch.

HIGH-RISK & HIGH-REWARD

Both of the Busch brothers are high-risk, high-reward picks.

Kurt Busch runs well in Charlotte, but he will be driving 500 miles at Indianapolis and flying to Charlotte before a long race. Kyle Busch has led the most laps in spring Charlotte races over the last five years. He is also the only driver to lead laps in all five races.

Because NASCAR.com Fantasy Live is weighted towards laps led, you can benefit from choosing Kyle Busch. The drawback to this pick is that Kyle Busch only has an average finish of 24th over the last three spring races.

I am taking a risk and picking both Busch brothers.

NOT STRONG DATA…BUT A HUNCH

A couple of drivers have a chance to succeed even if the data does not completely support picking them. Kevin Harvick has had a dominant car and won two of the last three spring races. Though his team has been consistent lately, Harvick has not led a bunch of laps in either victory.

Jamie McMurray won the All-Star race and could be at the top even if the historical numbers are average.

Joey Logano has been on fire lately and drives well in Charlotte.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kurt Busch 2.58
  • Kasey Kahne 2.52
  • Kyle Busch 2.16
  • Carl Edwards 1.81
  • Kevin Harvick 1.61
  • Joey Logano 1.59
  • Matt Kenseth 1.49
  • Brad Keselowski 1.02
  • Jeff Gordon 0.99
  • Clint Bowyer 0.94
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.74
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.30

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.75)

  • Greg Biffle 1.93
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.86
  • Brian Vickers 1.70
  • Denny Hamlin 1.65
  • Tony Stewart 1.54
  • Jamie McMurray 1.51
  • Kyle Larson 1.35
  • Austin Dillon 1.35
  • Ryan Newman 1.24
  • Marcose Ambrose 1.12
  • Martin Truex Jr. 0.90
  • Aric Almirola 0.25

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.75)

  • AJ Allmendinger 1.08
  • Justin Allgaier 1.11
  • Danica Patrick 1.00
  • Casey Mears 0.96

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.50)

  • David Ragan 2.74
  • Trevor Bayne 1.92
  • David Gilliland 1.70

GROUP E ($9.75 or lower)

  • Reed Sorenson 2.22
  • Landon Cassill 2.00
  • Josh Wise 1.68
  • Cole Whitt 1.41
  • Michael Annett 1.10
  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.78)

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne $25.25
  2. Kurt Busch $23.75
  3. Kyle Busch $27.50
  4. David Ragan $10.50
  5. Trevor Bayne $10.25
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Charlotte Motor Speedway, Coca-Cola 600

Congratulations to Jamie McMurray on winning the Sprint All-Star race this past weekend at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

This is the track the drivers will take to over the Memorial Day weekend, but first and foremost I would like to take this time to remember all of the men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice to keep our nation free and let us live the lives we live each and every day. Thank you to everyone that has ever served in the armed forces!

NOW COMES THE TRUE TEST

The race this week is going to test man and machine alike.

A 600-mile race will take its toll on engines, tires, and the mental focus of the drivers and crews. The All-Star race was run in segments. The Coca-Cola 600 will be run without any delays if mother nature allows it to, so everyone needs to be ready for a long afternoon and evening. Those who are fast early in the race will need to make adjustments later as the track conditions change, and those not so fast early will need to be patient as they will have plenty of time to get their cars running the way they would like them at the end of the race.

COCA-COLA 600

Kasey Kahne: I am picking Kasey to win the race this weekend. He had an awesomely fast car during the All-Star race, as did all of the Hendrick drivers, which is the first reason I am picking him. He has also finished first or second in each of the last three points races he has run at this track. Kasey needs to be patient early in the race and make sure he is around at the end to claim the victory.

Kevin Harvick: I am not forgetting about Kevin who has had a fast car every week this season. The only question I have is whether the machine will hold up for the 600-mile race. The Stewart-Haas teams have had a multitude of mechanical failures during the season and this will be the longest race they run all year. Kevin will be fast, but will the mechanical side hold up?

Jeff Gordon: Jeff sits on the top of the standings and has been competitive all year. Like I said, all of the Hendrick cars were fast on Saturday night and the engines in these cars seem to be able to handle the grueling task of a 600-mile race. Jeff knows that no matter how his car is handling at the beginning of the race, he will have to get the right adjustments to be able to contend at the end of the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Another of the Hendrick drivers who has been fast and competitive all season. I think the big thing for Dale in this race is to be patient. He can’t get too upset when his car doesn’t handle the best after making adjustments early in the race. Just do the best you can until the next time you stop and make further adjustments. You will all see comers and goers as the race progresses and the track changes from the start to the finish. The key is to have your best handling car at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Finally the last of the Hendrick drivers in the field this weekend. Jimmie is still looking for his first win of the season and this is the place that he would love to get that win. Charlotte Motor Speedway aka Lowe’s Motor Speedway is his self-proclaimed home track as it has the same sponsor as is on his car. Jimmie has won more points races here than any other active driver, so he knows how to get the job done in this race.


Matt Kenseth: Matt is always a patient driver and that really helps the longer the races are. He also knows how the track will change and gives excellent feed back to his crew chief during the race. This helps Jason Ratcliff determine what adjustments he wants to make to the car when they pit. I think these two work as well together as Jimmie and Chad do when it comes to communications and making the correct decisions.

Denny Hamlin: Denny has finished in the top ten in seven straight points races at Charlotte and had a fast car during both practice and the race last weekend. This team is still confident after getting the win at Talladega a few weeks ago and this is one of the tracks they always run well at. Denny knows not to get upset early in this race and has the patience to keep his car in good shape for a run late in the race.

Carl Edwards: Carl has yet to win a points race at this track, but he has five straight top ten finished here. He was another driver with a very fast car on Saturday night and the Roush/Fenway engines seem to hold up well over the longer races. This season Carl seems to be one of the drivers you don’t hear much about until late in the race when he gets his car dialed in and starts to make himself known at the front of the pack.

Greg Biffle: Greg had a very fast car last weekend also. He has the mentality to keep his focus over the long haul and can drive with the best of them. He is one of the drivers that can stay on the lead lap with an ill handling car until he can get in the pits and make adjustments to get the handling better. I can’t stress enough how much the track will change this weekend as we go from afternoon to evening. The track temperature will cool down considerably from the start of the race to the end and that really affects the handling.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has finished in the top five in three of his last four starts here. I think the biggest issue with Kyle is his patience in this long race. He always wants to be up front and race everyone hard. You need to take this race like a restrictor plate race. Keep yourself out of trouble, don’t take unnecessary chances early in the race and maintain your equipment so you can make the run late in the race. He just needs to remind himself of this early next week and he will be fine once again.

Check back later this week for possible changes to the Yahoo C group once the entry list is made available.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Trevor Bayne
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Kasey Kahne
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Jimmie Johnson
  5. Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour Energy 400

Clint Bowyer #15 Boston Marathon

The unpredictable nature of Talladega took a heavy toll on last week’s salary cap picks for Talladega Superspeedway. Four of the five choices did not finish due to accidents and mechanical difficulties. Sometimes all the data points to an expected outcome, and the results are significantly different than expected. This reality is what makes us love and hate fantasy racing.

The results from Kansas will likely improve from last week as Kansas is one of the more predictable races in the NASCAR schedule.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

MATT KENSETH AT KANSAS

Matt Kenseth’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Matt Kenseth total laps led last 3 spring races: 165
  • Laps led per race: 55
  • Nascar.com laps led points per race: 27.5 (1 point for every 2 laps led)
  • Starting position to finish position differential: 9
  • Average finish: 3rd place (41 points)
  • Total points per race: 77.5
  • Nascar.com salary cap value: $28.25
  • Kansas points per salary cap dollar: 77.5/28.25 = 2.74 points per dollar

KANSAS SPEEDWAY SALARY CAP DARKHORSE

Of the major drivers, the one with the highest points per fantasy dollar is Martin Truex Jr. with 3.28. With 219 laps led over the last two years, Martin has experienced success at this type of track. The general inconsistency of the Furniture Row team is cause for concern, but the upside makes Martin Truex Jr. a viable option.

THE MORE CONSISTENT DRIVERS

Matt Kenseth (see statistical details above) has averaged a top four finish at Kansas over the last three spring races. Jimmie Johnson has been nearly as consistent here without as many laps led. Kansas could be the track where the 48 car leads half the race on its way to victory. There seems to be a hex over this team in 2014, which may be the direct result of the overplayed Lowe’s “boom confetti” commercial. Hopefully, they shake off the bad luck soon.

Other drivers with more than two points per dollar include Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. Feel free to use any of these drivers as your picks.

With results at this track leaning towards predictable finishes, the value choices at the bottom of the salary cap are slim. Reed Sorensen passed 14 cars last race and has the highest points per dollar of any driver this week (4.44). Justin Allgaier has been emerging as the third-best rookie over the last few weeks. With 1.6 points per fantasy dollar in 2014, he has better value in salary cap terms than his rookie counterparts Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 4.44 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Martin Treux Jr. 3.28
  • Matt Kenseth 2.74
  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.19
  • Brad Keselowski 2.18
  • Josh Wise 2.13
  • Kurt Busch 2.12

Worst Value Picks

  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.22) (points per fantasy dollar)
  • AJ Allmendinger (-0.05)
  • Joey Logano 0.11
  • Brian Vickers 0.32
  • Kyle Busch 0.60
  • Casey Mears 0.74
  • Clint Bowyer 0.77

Notable Drivers

  • Kasey Kahne 1.82 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.69
  • Tony Stewart 1.61
  • Carl Edwards 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.38
  • Kevin Harvick 1.31
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Paul Menard 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.97

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth $28.25
  2. Jimmie Johnson $27.25
  3. Martin Truex Jr. $21.50
  4. Justin Allgaier $16.25
  5. Reed Sorensen $6.75