Month: March 2014

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Texas Motor Speedway, Duck Commander 500

texas-motor-speedway-no-limits-girls

Another race with tire issues, but this time I won’t blame it on tires or NASCAR. I think it was due to the temperatures being so cool in Martinsville this past weekend. One thing for sure, it was an exciting race even it none of my fantasy drivers finished in the top ten. So congratulations to Kurt Busch, who broke a long winless streak and out dueled Jimmie Johnson to be the sixth driver to win a race in six chances this season.

This week the series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Duck Commander 500. Texas is a fast mile and a half D-shaped oval with plenty of banking in the corners. Hopefully tires won’t be an issue this weekend, but even if they aren’t and I don’t think they will be, the speed and the distance is going to be hard on engines.

DUCK COMMANDER 500

Matt Kenseth: Matt is my pick to win this week’s race and to be the seventh different driver to win in seven races this year. Matt has two career wins at Texas and has finished in the top five in six of his last seven races here. I believe that Toyota has taken care of their engine issues they experienced last season and their engines will hold up during this grueling race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie will once again give Matt a run for his money. He has won two of the last three races at this track and finished runner-up in another of those races. In the three aforementioned races he has lead 579 laps. That is more than half of all the laps run in those three races also. Hard to bet against a team like that.

Greg Biffle: Greg won this race two years ago for his second victory at Texas. He has also finished in the top ten in ten of his last eleven starts there. This team looks like they are on the edge of breaking out and winning some races soon. He has brought cars to the front of the field the last few weeks and just needs to make the right adjustments late in the race to keep up with changing track conditions.

Kyle Busch: Kyle won this race last year and has lead laps in each of his last three starts here. This team has qualified well the past couple of weeks, but hasn’t found the formula for long runs. Their car seems to be unbeatable on short runs, but after a few laps they fade. If they can figure out how to set up this car for long runs they are going to win more races this year.

Joey Logano: Joey has yet to win a race at Texas, but both of the Penske teams have qualified and run well each and every week this season barring wrecks or mechanical failures. They have the speed you need to win on a fast track and a driver who likes to go fast. Sometimes I think that if Joey would be a little more patient early in the race they would be in the mix more ofter than they are now late in the race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin always seems to run very well at this track and yet he is still seeking his first win here. The major thing for this team right now is to avoid the mechanical troubles that have been plaguing them for the past month. They always seem to have one of the better cars each week and then something mechanical happens to them. Last week it was a broken chain in the rear of the car, but they rebounded nicely from that failure.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the other Penske driver that has had a fast car all season and already has a win to prove that he knows how to get the job done. This team is going to contend for the championship this season as they try to win their second for the young driver. Brad has finished in the top ten in his last three starts at Texas and should qualify well here once again.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has looked better this year than any other year he has driven at this high level. He has a contending car each and every week and this week should be no different. He has finished in the top ten in five of this last six starts at this track including a second place finish last fall. However, he hasn’t won a race here since 2000.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won three times here during his career and always seems to have a good car when he unloads it from the hauler. Last November he sat on the pole for the race here and lead a bunch of laps before losing an engine half-way through the race. He has finished in the top three in three of his last six races here also.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Greg Biffle
  • Carl Edwards
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Joey Logano

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Trevor Bayne

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Greg Biffle
  4. Kyle Busch
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Aric Almirola

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Martinsville Speedway, STP 500

Jimmie Johnson & Rick Hendrick celebrate at Martinsville

Congratulations to Kyle Busch who won his first race of the season in Fontana, California last weekend. I’m not taking anyway from Kyle and his team’s win, but I have to say NASCAR or Goodyear really messed up once again. It is absolutely unforgivable to have that many drivers only be able to drive about 20-laps or 40-miles and then have their tires blow. I am sure that there will be an investigation and they will find out if it was the tires or the camber that NASCAR allowed the teams to put in their cars. I only hope that something changes because today was shades of the Brickyard a few years ago and if I had paid to see that race in person I would not be a very happy camper.

STP 500

This week the series heads back East as the drivers and crews head to Martinsville, Virginia and Martinsville Speedway for the running of the STP 500. Martinsville is another short, flat track, and when I say short I mean really short. There is hardly enough room for 43 pit stalls. In fact, the 43rd pit stall was installed in 1998. At .526-miles in length, it is the shortest track in the Sprint Cup Series.

Jimmie Johnson: Once again I have to pick Jimmie to win this week’s race at Martinsville. Jimmie has eight career wins at this track and has won two of the last three races run here. He has seventeen top five and twenty-one top ten finishes in twenty-four starts here. There really aren’t a lot of consistent drivers at this track, but Jimmie is the most consistent.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has eight career wins at this track and won the race here last fall during the Chase. His stats are equally impressive as Jimmie’s are with twenty-seven top five and thirty-four top ten finishes in forty-two starts. He will give Jimmie the most competition this weekend and we will see our sixth different driver win a race this year.

Denny Hamlin: Denny missed last week’s race in California with a sinus infection that gave him double vision. Hopefully he will be sufficiently recovered by this weekend so he can get back on the track. He is the only other real consistent driver at Martinsville with four career victories, nine top fives, and thirteen top ten finished in only sixteen starts. After Denny the consistency drops way off.

Tony Stewart: Tony came away with a top five finish last week and will look to build on this momentum this week at Martinsville. He has three career wins at this track and has finished in the top ten in just over half of his twenty-nine starts here. Those are still very good stats, but quite a bit behind the stats of the first three drivers mentioned.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although he has never won a race at this track, Dale has finished second here twice. He has ten top five finishes and fifteen top ten finishes in twenty-eight starts here. He needs to get back on track after a couple of disappointing races in a row.

Kevin Harvick: Speaking of getting back on track, Kevin really needs to get his momentum turned around. Mechanical and tire failures have cost him in the last three weeks. He has won a race here in the past, but only has three top five finishes in twenty-five starts. That isn’t good enough for me to put him on my team this week.

Ryan Newman: Ryan won this race two years ago, when Jeff and Jimmie kind of got run over on a late race restart when they both stayed out and everyone else pitted for fresh tires. Ryan made his way through the carnage and claimed the win that weekend. He has been running very well for most of this season, but he was one of those drivers that had a few tire issues last weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint could very well get a win this week at Martinsville. He has finished in the top 5 in his last three starts here, including a second place finish in this race last year. He had a very good car at Fontana last week and it looks like the Michael Waltrip Racing teams are starting to come around.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has four straight top ten finishes here and has only started eight races here in his career. He has the attitude to get the job done at this track and could be a factor this weekend once again. Both of the Penske teams have been very good on a weekly basis this season and have qualified well too.

Kyle Busch: Last week’s winner has finished in the top ten in half of his starts at Martinsville. Maybe the win last weekend will launch this team on a streak of wins over the coming weeks. Kyle is another driver that isn’t afraid to move someone out of his way if that’s what it takes to get to the front and win a race and that is one of the best ways to pass someone at Martinsville.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Jeff Gordon

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Danica Patrick
  • Kyle Larson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Jeff Gordon
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Auto Club Speedway, Auto Club 400

Kyle Busch bows in victory at Auto Club Speedway

Congratulations to Carl Edwards, who beat the rain and the competition to win the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday. This should guarantee Carl a spot in the Chase this season. In four races this year we have four different winners who should all take one of the sixteen spots in the Chase. Who will be next?

AUTO CLUB 400

This week the series heads back out west to what we all hope is sunny California. The Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, CA is a two-mile D-shaped oval with 14 degrees of banking in the corners. That makes it the fifth different type of track that the drivers have run on in five races this season. I also think this means we will have our fifth different winner this week too.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is my pick to win his first race of the year this week at the Auto Club Speedway. During his career he has picked up five wins here and over his past eleven starts, he has accumulated four wins, two second place finishes, two third place finishes, lead laps in ten of those eleven races and had a worst finish of twelfth. He is definitely on my team this week.

Matt Kenseth: Just like last year, Matt should be right there with Jimmie in most races. Matt has great stats at this track himself, accumulating three wins and fourteen top ten finishes in twenty-one career starts. This track is similar to Michigan International Speedway in its configuration and Matt is the best there is at Michigan. He is also looking for his first win of the season and knows this is one of the places he can get that win.

Carl Edwards: Carl won last week’s race, so now the monkey is off his back. In other words, this team is just about guaranteed a spot in the Chase and now they can take a few chances to try and win a few more races. He only has one win in sixteen career starts here, but he has finished in the top ten in thirteen of those races. Those are very impressive stats also.

Kyle Busch: Kyle won this race last season and has finished in the top three here in his last three starts. This is the track that he got his first ever Cup win at in his rookie season and he hasn’t looked back since. This is a track that you should be able to stay out of trouble easily enough. You just have to make the right adjustments to your car as the race progresses and you will have a shot to win at the end.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale hasn’t been consistently stellar at this track during his career, but he has run very well here the past two seasons, finishing second and third in those two races. He has another good run going last weekend at Bristol until a vibration slowed his car down considerably and took him out of contention. I look for this team to rebound this week at California and get right back on track.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has three career wins at this track and has a solid start to this season. However, he would like to get a win early in the year to solidify his spot in the Chase. I think Jeff and crew chief Alan Gustafson are on the same page right now and that win could come very soon.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won two of the last four races here and looked very good at Bristol last week. I’m really not sure what is going on with the Stewart/Haas teams so far this season as they have had multiple mechanical issues thus far. They get their cars and engines from Hendrick Motorsports, but they have had multiple engine failures, and other mechanical issues in all of their cars which include Tony, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Danica Patrick. This race has been reduced from 500-miles to 400-miles and that should help out the engine issue.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race three seasons ago and has had a good start to his season, winning at Phoenix and competing for wins every week. Mechanical failures the past two weeks have taken the opportunity to win more races away from this team as they head back to Kevin’s home state of California this weekend.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Tony Stewart
  • Ryan Newman
  • Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Austin Dillon
  • Kyle Larson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT AUTO CLUB SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kyle Busch
  3. Matt Kenseth
  4. Carl Edwards
  5. Tony Stewart

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Bristol Motor Speedway, Food City 500

Three weeks are in the books and we have had three different winners at three different types of tracks. Congratulations to Brad Keselowski, who took advantage of Dale Earnhardt Jr. running out of fuel on the final lap to win his first race of the 2014 season. Dale Jr. hung on to finish second and has finished in the top two in all three races so far this year.

This week the series heads back east for the running of the Food City 500 at the Bristol Motor Speedway in Bristol, TN. Bristol will be the fourth different type of track the drivers will race on in just as many weeks. For me, the Bristol races are always two of the most exciting races of the season. Where else can you watch 43 cars compete on a half-mile high banked oval where they make a circuit in about 15 seconds? If you are going to watch any race this year, try and make it this weeks’s race.

FOOD CITY 500

Brad Keselowski: I am picking Brad to win his second race in a row this week. He has two wins in eight career starts here and finished third in this race last season. I hate to go against momentum and this team has looked very good every week so far this year.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Before you all write and tell me that Dale has the most momentum of all the drivers and would have won last week’s race had he not run out of fuel, I will say that you are correct. However, he hasn’t won a race here since 2004 and that is why I am giving the nod to Brad this week. That doesn’t mean that Dale won’t have another good run at this track. He finished in the top ten in both of the Bristol races last season.

Clint Bowyer: Clint had a disappointing finish at Las Vegas last weekend and would like to get his first ever win at Bristol this week to virtually lock himself into the Chase. Clint is always very good here and has the right attitude to get the job done at this track. I think he will have a great car as soon as they take it off the truck this week and will be able to make some noise during the race on Sunday.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey won this race last season and then followed that up with a runner-up finish in the fall race here. With stats like that it is hard to bet against him this weekend at Bristol and I will have him on my Yahoo team this week.

Brian Vickers: Brian has been one of the most consistent drivers at Bristol over his career. He has run four races for Michael Waltrip Racing in the past two seasons at this track and has never finished worse than eighth. Brian is my dark horse for this week and I will be interested to see how he practices and qualifies this weekend. If he can start in the top twenty, I think he will come away with another great finish here.

Kyle Busch: Kyle has five career wins at this track and had a great car last week at Las Vegas until late in the race when it looked like they didn’t make the right adjustments on their last pit stop. Kyle had the best type of attitude for racing at Bristol. He doesn’t mind mixing it up with the bumpers and that is the exact attitude you need to win at this track. The chrome horn rules here, especially over the last handful of laps.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff is another driver with five career wins at this track, although his last win here came back in 2002. This team has looked better this year than the last few seasons and he knows how to get around this track. He would like nothing better than to get a win early in the season so that he doesn’t have to worry about making the Chase as the weeks wind down this summer.

Kurt Busch: Kurt is the third driver with five career wins here and he ran amazingly well last year with Furniture Row Racing. Now that he is with Stewart/Haas Racing he is expecting even better things for his team. If Kevin Harvick can run as well as he is with the same equipment, then Kurt can too.

Paul Menard: Paul is my honorable mention dark horse driver this week. He has four straight top ten finishes at Bristol and had a fantastic finish last week at Las Vegas, which should boost the whole teams confidence. I look for him to run well here once again this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: Let’s not forget about Kevin this week. After a disappointing finish last week when a front left wheel bearing froze up on him as he was leading the race. This team will be chomping at the bit to get to Bristol and get back on the race track. He has nine top five finishes in twenty-six starts here including one win.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kasey Kahne
  • Clint Bowyer

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Brian Vickers
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Paul Menard

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY

  1. Brad Keselowski
  2. Kasey Kahne
  3. Clint Bowyer
  4. Jeff Gordon
  5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Brian Vickers, Paul Menard

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Who Will Make The Chase

Who Will Make The NASCAR Chase – Post Phoenix 1

The new NASCAR Chase Grid format for 2014 will have 16 drivers – the points leader and 15 top-30 drivers who have won races. Since the top drivers will almost certainly have multiple race wins, it seems that winning a single race could be a ticket to the NASCAR Chase.

ESTIMATING WIN PROBABILITIES

With that in mind, I sought to estimate each driver’s probability of winning a race. To do that, I looked at the 2011 – 2013 NASCAR seasons and counted up each driver’s number of wins and their total number of races. For example, Matt Kenseth won 13 out of 108 races, which gives an estimate of Matt’s winning percentage as 12%. Jimmie Johnson also won 13 of 108, and Tony Stewart won 9 of 92 for a percentage of 9.8%. Of course, several drivers did not win at all and we will deal with that later.

The winning percentage of a driver can be used as an estimate of a driver’s probability of winning for each race. With 26 races before the Chase, if the probability of winning each race is 10%, then the probability of winning at least one race is one minus the probability of losing each race, which is (1-10%)^26, or about 2%. This means that the likelihood of winning at least one race (and presumably getting in the chase) for this example is 94%.

WIN PROBABILITIES (TWO RACES IN)

Shown below are the probabilities of winning at least one race before the Chase, based on the frequency of wins in 2011-2013, updated after the Daytona and Phoenix races, won by Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kevin Harvick. The chart only shows race winners during those years, excluding Trevor Bayne, who is not eligible for points in the Cup Series.

[progress_bars type=’normal’]

[progress_bar title=”Kevin Harvick” percent=”100″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Dale Earnhardt Jr” percent=”100″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Jimmie Johnson” percent=”95″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Matt Kenseth” percent=”95″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Tony Stewart” percent=”92″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Brad Keselowski” percent=”88″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Kyle Busch” percent=”88″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Denny Hamlin” percent=”82″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Jeff Gordon” percent=”75″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Kasey Kahne” percent=”68″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Clint Bowyer” percent=”60″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Carl Edwards” percent=”49″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Greg Biffle” percent=”49″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Kurt Busch” percent=”36″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”David Ragan” percent=”36″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Marcos Ambrose” percent=”36″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Joey Logano” percent=”36″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Brian Vickers” percent=”33″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Jamie McMurray” percent=”20″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Paul Menard” percent=”20″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Ryan Newman” percent=”20″ color=’#262626′ background_color=” noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]
[progress_bar title=”Martin Truex Jr” percent=”20″ color=’#262626′ background_color=’#262626′ noactive_background_color=” top_gradient=” bottom_gradient=”]

[/progress_bars]

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Kevin Harvick are shown as 100% likely to win in 2014 because they already have. Each week, this table would be updated by moving the race winners to 100% and decreasing the number of remaining races by one. Other than the winners, the driver probabilities of winning at least one race will not change very fast.

OVER 50% – UNDER 50%

Eleven drivers are shown as more likely to win one race or more than to not win any. It is not surprising that this method shows that several of the top drivers (from Matt Kenseth to Denny Hamlin) are very likely (but not certain) to win a spot in the Chase this year. Jeff Gordon is just under 80%, and Kasey Kahne is about 70%. Clint Bowyer is more likely than not to get in, and Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards are equally likely. But, the probability is under 50% for drivers from Kurt Busch on down through the single race winners during the last three years.

NO PREVIOUS WINS?

The results shown are based on the best estimates of each drivers winning probability, developed by dividing the number of wins by the number of races. So, what about those drivers that didn’t win in the last three years? The best estimate of their winning probability is 0%. In other words, they won’t win this year either, as a best estimate. But, some could win their first race, of course.

So, how can we estimate how likely that is? Since all drivers are nowhere near being equal, the non-winners probability is well less than 1/43, which is about 2%. Another way to look at this is to consider that if their true probability of winning was 0.6%, or 1 out of 167 races, then it is just as likely that they would win one or more races as to not win at all. So, all we can say is that it is likely that their true probability of winning is less than 0.6%. This translates into a probability of winning at least one race of the 24 remaining of 13%. The implication is that their win probability is not more than 13%. In most cases, it is much less than 13%.