2014 Michigan International Speedway, Pure Michigan 400

AJ Allmendinger is a virtual lock to make the Chase by virtue of his win at Watkins Glen this past weekend. This is AJ’s first win in the Sprint Cup series and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Once again the finish at Watkins Glen was exciting, with Allmendinger, Marcos Ambrose, and Kurt Busch racing for the win after a restart with only two laps remaining in the race.

There are now twelve different winners so far this season and it looks like all of them should be in the top thirty in points after the next four races. That leaves only four spots open right now that will go to drivers by points. Right now Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Larson hold those final four spots, but that could easily change over the next four weeks with new winners, or even a poor finish in a race that could drop these drivers out of the Chase and put another driver into the final spot.

PURE MICHIGAN 400

This week the series heads back to Michigan International Speedway for the running of the Pure Michigan 400. MIS is a 2-mile D-shaped oval track and it is very fast after being repaved. How much faster is it now? Kevin Harvick set a new track qualifying record in June at over 204.5 m.p.h. which is over 10 m.p.h. faster than the old track record. At these speeds, engines and tires are going to be at a premium this weekend.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win once again this weekend because he has been fast all season and he is due for another win. He has finished second in the last three races here and should be able to pick up that final position this weekend. I see this team coming with a very similar setup to what they had in June and they haven’t been having any mechanical issues lately. I think they have the correct setup to reduce tire wear while still be fast.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won two races at this track and always seems to have a great car here. However, this season the Joe Gibbs Racing teams haven’t had the best cars and probably need to work on their aerodynamics more to be really competitive with the Hendrick and Penske teams right now. Matt should make the Chase no matter if he has a win or not because of his point standing, but I’m sure he would love to win a race and gain some valuable bonus points heading into the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie won the race here in June, but he has had a lot of issues over the past month or so. This team needs to figure out their tire issues before the Chase starts if they want to repeat as champions once again. With the speeds these cars will be running this weekend, there is going to be a lot of strain on the tires in the corners and a blown tire will end your day quickly.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has always been good at Michigan finishing in the top ten in well over half of the races he has run here. That includes two wins, but he hasn’t won a race here since 2001. He did lead a bunch of laps here in June and came away with a sixth place finish in that race. This team has been consistent all year and that is why they are in first place in the standings right now.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: This is the type of track that Dale should run very well at. He knows how to get off the corners and get back into the gas to carry that speed down the straightaways and that is the name of the game at Michigan. The way this team has run all year they have a great shot at winning another race this weekend. They are a legitimate title contender right now.

Joey Logano: Joey has one win at this track and has finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts here. The Penske cars have been very fast all season at this type of track and this weekend should be no different. I look for Joey to qualify in the top five and have a car that is capable of winning this race. I think if they stay away from mechanical issues and penalties on pit road, they will have a shot at the end of this race.

Kasey Kahne: There are a couple of races before the Chase that this team has a good chance of winning and making it into the Chase. This is one of those races. Kasey has won a race here before and has finished in the top ten in almost half of his starts at this track. They have a chance to make the Chase by points, but I know they would rather win a race and take that chance out of the equation. Win and your in.

Greg Biffle: Greg has won four races at this track, but this season the Roush/Fenway cars have really struggled to find the speed on the intermediate tracks. Until they figure out why they can’t get the speed out of their cars that the competition is getting, I would stay away from these drivers on this type of track. Greg is only five points from the last Chase spot at this time, but would like to get a win and lock himself in.

Carl Edwards: Carl is already locked in the Chase, but they also have a Roush/Fenway car. They will not be able to win a championship this season unless they can find the speed on these tracks. The competition is too much better than they are right now and a poor finish in the Chase can spell doom for any driver with a three race knockout round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad is the other Penske driver that should have a fast car once again this weekend. They are all ready locked into the Chase and would just like to get a few more bonus points heading into the Chase. I look for Brad to qualify in the top five along with Joey Logano and if they can stay clean throughout the race, they should have a great shot at the end to visit victory lane.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

Kevin Harvick
Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group B

Joey Logano
Brad Keselowski
Denny Hamlin
Aric Almirola

Yahoo Driver Group C

Jeff Burton
Kyle Larson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MICHIGAN INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Kevin Harvick
Joey Logano
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Brad Keselowski
Jeff Gordon

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle