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Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Phoenix International Raceway, The Profit on CNBC 500

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr., who got his second Daytona 500 victory on a long day in Daytona Beach, FL. Once again there were a few of the top tier drivers that had problems at a restrictor plate track and now find themselves in a hole only one week into the season. Now they have to move out west to Phoenix for the running of the Profit on CNBC 500.

Phoenix International Raceway is a 1-mile, low banked tri-oval track that was just reconfigured approximately two and a half years ago. Some of the drivers don’t like the new configuration because the backstretch dips and then rises and dips again. However, that seems to have made the track better for competition in my opinion.

THE PROFIT ON CNBC 500

Jimmie Johnson: I am going to pick Jimmie Johnson to get his first win of the season at Phoenix this week. He has four career wins here and has finished in the top five in fourteen of his twenty-one starts at this track. He looked good at Daytona last week and everyone knows that he and Chad Knaus bring their A-game every week.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin could give Jimmie more than he bargained for this week. Kevin has won two of the last three races at Phoenix, which is since the new track configuration. He is with a brand new team this season and that is the only reason I am not picking him to win this week. I just want to make sure that this team is on the same page and is able to make the correct adjustments to their car as the race progresses. I really don’t think this will be an issue, but I want to be sure.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. Dale finished in the top five in both of the races at Phoenix last season. With the momentum he gained last week he could be ready for another great run this weekend. He has most of the pressure off of him right now and a win will almost guarantee a driver a spot in the Chase this year. Now he can relax and try to win a handful of races between now and September.

Denny Hamlin: Denny had a great Speedweeks and it looks like he is finally healthy after suffering a back injury in crash last season. Denny has always been good at Phoenix and finished in the top three in three of his last four starts at this track. He will finish in the top five once again and might even pull off the win.

Brad Keselowski: Brad looked like he had a very fast car at Daytona last week and would like nothing better than to get a win early this season and get the monkey off his back from a disappointing season last year. Brad has finished in the top ten in three of his last four starts at Phoenix and likes to run the short, flat tracks.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is one of the better all around drivers on the circuit and he has been very good at Phoenix since the track reconstruction. He also has three top ten finishes in his last four starts here and you can never count him out because of his driving ability.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey had a disappointing week at Daytona and received a speeding penalty on pit road just for trying to stay out of a wreck to make matters worse. This week they will forget all about what happened last weekend when they unload their car in Phoenix. Kasey has four top ten finishes in his last six races here, including a win back in November of 2011. Another good choice for this weekend.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has always run very well at Phoenix and now that he is on a new team with Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick he should only get better. All three of these drivers know how to race at Phoenix and now they can all pool their resources to make each of them better at this track. Kurt usually leads at least some laps when he comes to this track and this year should be no different.

Carl Edwards: Carl won this race last season and should come with a car capable of doing it again. He has two career wins here and has lead laps in five of the past seven races in which he got both of his wins. He had a great run last week at Daytona and though he didn’t win the race I think that this team will build on the momentum they gained.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brad Keselowski
  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Justin Algaier
  • Reed Sorenson

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT PHOENIX INTERNATIONAL RACEWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Denny Hamlin
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Kyle Busch

Dark Horse: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Stay Away From: Brian Vickers

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Daytona International Speedway, Daytona 500

Welcome back race fans! The first points race of the 2014 season kicks off this Sunday at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona, FL. As I was watching the Duels last evening I was wondering what is really going to happen this season. Who will win the championship with the new format where the last race of the season determines the champion between four drivers? Is this the right way to determine a champion after 36 weeks of racing? Who will be the most improved driver? Which drivers will have disappointing season’s? Who will be the rookie of the year?

Those questions can only be answered by watching the races and seeing how the season develops. The first duel was quite tame last evening, with Matt Kenseth proving that once again this season he is going to have great equipment. The second duel started out just like the first until the last lap when all heck broke loose. However, Denny Hamlin proved this week that he is back in top form after a disappointing season last year when he was knocked out of a few races and drove the final races when he was not 100% healthy after a crash that injured his back.

So, lets see what we think is going to happen this week, predict a winner and then set our lineup for the first race of the year. One thing that I would like to caution everyone on that is in a Yahoo league you only get to start each driver nine times throughout the year, so don’t use your best drivers at restrictor plate tracks! There are just too many unknowns at these tracks, and any driver can get caught up in the big one no matter how well they have run the entire race.

DAYTONA 500

Now, with that said I am going to pick Denny Hamlin to win the Daytona 500 this year, but I won’t be starting him in my Yahoo lineup for the reasons that I stated above. Denny is one of the best drivers in the B list and I will probably use him nine other times during the season. I do like the way that he ran all week at Daytona and the Joe Gibbs cars all looked good the whole week.

The driver that will give Denny a run for his money this weekend is going to be Matt Kenseth. Matt is another of the Joe Gibbs drivers that has run well all week. Matt has made a few mistakes on the track and that has cost him and some other drivers a lot of headaches. I think Matt has learned a lot like all of the drivers have about the closing rates of the cars, how they draft this year, and how and where they are the most unstable.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano both drive for Penske Racing and both of those cars looked great in the draft last night. Brad made a mistake on pit road that cost him a chance at winning a Duel, but I am sure that he learned a lot from that experience. I think that most drivers trust both of these guys not to make mistakes on the track, so they shouldn’t have trouble teaming up with other drivers to draft with.

Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle both race for Roush/Fenway Racing and they both had extremely fast race cars during Speedweek, but neither of them looked good in the draft last night. Daytona is all about drafting and if you can’t draft well, you will find yourself alone on the track. I am staying away from both of these drivers this week.

Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, and Danica Patrick are all driving for Stewart/Haas Racing, both Kevin and Kurt are in their first year with the organization and this is only Danica’s second full year in the Cup series. Both Danica and Tony lost engines earlier this week and that concerns me about all of these drivers this weekend. Kevin ran well in his Duel and finished second, but his car didn’t pass post-race inspection. Once again I am going to stay away from all of these drivers this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kasey Kahne are all part of the Hendrick Motorsports stable and every one of these drivers has had good cars this week. However, they have made multiple mistakes that have cost themselves, their teammates, and other drivers their original cars. The cars aren’t the big deal for the Hendrick teams, but they can’t make any more mistakes, because the next mistake ends their weekend.

That is the way that I see this weekend shaping up. Now I will give you my starting Yahoo lineup and predict the top five finishers in this week’s race.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Jamie McMurray
  • Marcos Ambrose
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Michael Waltrip
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY

  1. Denny Hamlin
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Tony Stewart

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2013 Homestead-Miami Speedway, Ford EcoBoost 400

Brad Keselowski 2012 Homestead-Miami Speedway
Brad Keselowski, driver of the #2 Miller Lite Dodge, crosses the finish line in fifteenth place to win the series championship in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Ford EcoBoost 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway on November 18, 2012 in Homestead, Florida. Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Jimmie Johnson extended his lead over Matt Kenseth to twenty-eight points and still leads Kevin Harvick by thirty-four points as we head into the final race of the season next Sunday afternoon. All of the other drivers have been eliminated from contention and all Jimmie has to do is finish in the top twenty to secure his sixth championship. However, an accident, blown engine or some other catastrophic mishap could open the door for Matt or Kevin.

For the final week the series heads to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the running of the Ford EcoBoost 400. This track is another mile and a half track that has progressive banking in the corners. I think that we will see Matt and Kevin let it all hang out, while Jimmie might just play it safe to ensure himself the championship.

FORD ECOBOOST 400

Kevin Harvick: While Kevin has never won a race at this track, he has been one of the most consistent drivers here. He has finished in the top ten in ten of twelve races that he has run at this track and that includes five top five finishes also.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won a race at this track during his career and we all know how good he has been on this type of track all season. He has nothing to lose by trying to win this race and I am sure that he is going to give it everything he has to give himself a shot at his second championship.

Jimmie Johnson: Like I said, Jimmie only needs to finish in the top twenty to win his sixth championship, but he has been very good at Homestead throughout his career. However, he hasn’t done that well the past two seasons finishing worse than thirtieth in both of those races and losing the rear housing of his car last year. Anything can still happen.

Carl Edwards: Carl has been the class of the field here during the nine races he has run at this track. He has won two of the past five races here and has finished in the top five in five of those nine starts he has had here. However, this team hasn’t been the greatest at this type of track this season.

Greg Biffle: Greg won three races in a row at Homestead from 2004-2006. He likes to race at this track and knows how to get around it in a hurry. However, like Carl Edwards this season, Greg hasn’t been very consistent, so I’m thinking that the Roush/Fenway drivers don’t quite have the new Gen 6 car figured out when it comes to these types of tracks.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won this race last season and has really been good during the Chase this year. This team looks like they might be ready to compete for a championship once again next season and would love to win the last race of the year to keep their confidence up heading into next season.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has never won a race at Homestead yet, but he has been very good almost every week early in the races. This team just needs to make the right adjustments towards the end of the race to give themselves a shot at visiting victory lane.

Martin Truex Jr.: Martin has had a disappointing season, but this is the type of track that he excels at and he has been very good here during his career with six top ten finishes in eight starts. This will be the last race he runs for MWR and I’m sure he would like to go out a winner.

Clint Bowyer: Clint started out having a great year, but that all went south for him during the Chase. He finished second in this race last season and is another driver in the MWR stable that should have a great car once again this weekend.

Kurt Busch: Kurt has fallen off a bit lately after having a superb year running on a one car team. He proved that he is still an elite driver and that he can get it done no matter how much backing his team has. I think that he could be a serious contender once again next season when he moves to Stewart/Haas Racing. He has finished in the top five in four of his twelve career starts at Homestead.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Kevin Harvick
  • Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Carl Edwards
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano
  • Martin Truex Jr.

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr .
  • Elliott Sadler

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT HOMESTEAD-MIAMI SPEEDWAY

  1. Kevin Harvick
  2. Matt Kenseth
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Kasey Kahne
  5. Jimmie Johnson

Dark Horse: Joey Logano

Stay Away From: Brad Keselowski