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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 WATKINS GLEN, CHEEZ-IT 355 AT THE GLEN

The last three laps of the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway made significant changes to our NASCAR standings as we waited to see who would have enough gas to finish the race. My lineup followed the path of Kevin Harvick, as a rare misfortune buried me in the standings. Matt Kenseth’s team found a way to victory much to Logano, Busch, and Truex’s misfortune.

Congratulations to the Pavement Pounders out of the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet league, who is now up to second overall in the Fantasy Live standings.

NASCAR stays in the north this week for the second road course of the season. You should not expect to earn many points from laps led and fast laps. Your best chance is to earn your points through average finish position and start-to-finish differential. There are some drivers who over-achieve and should provide value for your roster. If you look at the points per dollar numbers below, the results clearly point to leaning toward middle-tier drivers. As a result, I would recommend balancing your lineup with some of these overachieving drivers instead of the usual front-loading strategy. This may be the last chance for several teams to make the Chase, and I expect the closing laps to be as competitive as last season’s race.

My last Fantasy Live recommendations at a road course turned out to be a disaster, and we are rolling with a similar team this week. My first recommendation for your lineup is AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger had a top-car in Sonoma before a mechanical issue shot him to the back of the field. He has a moderate price tag, and his 2014 victory at Watkins Glen qualified him to make the Chase. Over the last five Watkins Glen races, Allmendinger has an average finish position of 5.8 and 81% of his laps in the top-15. Over his career, AJ has four top-10 finishes in six races. He only has an average finish position of 23rd place in 2015, and that is keeping his salary cap low. He should provide great value this week in New York. Let us hope the results are more prosperous than the last time he was recommended.

Kyle Busch has had an amazing recovery from a broken leg. At the time of Sonoma, I held him out of my lineup due to the risk with his leg. After winning Sonoma and three other races, the worry over his leg has subsided. Kyle Busch has the most laps led at Watkins Glen over the last five races. He has four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 11.8. Historically, he has eight top-10 finishes in 10 races since 2005. Kyle Busch has collected three wins in his first eight races since returning. His lap-to-lap performance is good for fourth-best in the series. His recent string of finishes gives him great potential this week.

After watching Keselowski drive in Watkins Glen last year, I was surprised to see that he has not yet won at the track. He seems to be near the top when the race comes to a close, as evidenced by his three top-5 finishes in his last five races. Although he has not been as successful in the summer months, Keselowski has earned 11 top-10 finishes through the first 19 races in 2015. He is sixth in laps led this season. Keselowski is due to break his slump, and Watkins Glen is a great track for him to find his groove.

Casey Mears is another driver who was a disappointing Sonoma recommendations. He drove a little too hard, resulting in his entire brake assembly ripping off his car at the end of the race. He is back in my recommendations at Sonoma due to an average finish position of 15.8 over the last five Watkins Glen races. Mears has four straight top-20 finishes at Watkins Glen. Traditionally, Mears has worked his way through the field. On many tracks, I tend to ignore this number. At a track like Watkins Glen, you want someone who has proven the ability to pass. He only has an average finish position of 21.6 in 2015, which should translate to a valuable option this week.

With a few moderately-priced drivers in my lineup, I had more budget than usual for the final roster spot. My choice came down to Austin Dillon or Danica Patrick. In the end, I went with Austin Dillon because he is improving in the standings throughout the summer. He only has one run at the track, finishing 16th. He also passed 15 cars in the race, and he has shown the ability to pass in a limited sample. His average finish position in 2015 is a modest 21.3 and should be a value this week.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to keep us from starting the top five drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five Watkins Glen races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap number to determine how much value each driver is expected to provide for your lineup. Danica Patrick missed out on the fifth spot of my lineup, and we will use her Watkins Glen numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DANICA PATRICK AT WATKINS GLEN

  • Average finish position last five Watkins Glen races: 20.5 equals 22.5 Fantasy Live points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 18.5 equals 18.5 Fantasy Live Points per race
  • Laps Led: 0
  • Fast Led: 0
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 41
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $12.50
  • Fantasy Live points per dollar: 41 divided by $12.50 equals 3.28 points per race

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver this week. Recommended picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 history for rookie drivers with no history at the track.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 1.63
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.58
  • Brad Keselowski 1.50
  • Kevin Harvick 1.45
  • Matt Kenseth 1.37
  • Kurt Busch 0.95
  • Joey Logano 0.83
  • Jimmie Johnson 0.81
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.80
  • Jamie McMurray 0.72
  • Jeff Gordon 0.71
  • Denny Hamlin 0.24

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Kyle Larson 2.60
  • Carl Edwards 1.85
  • Clint Bowyer 1.22
  • Kasey Kahne 1.19
  • Aric Almirola 1.19
  • Paul Menard 0.92
  • Ryan Newman 0.72

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Casey Mears 2.86
  • Austin Dillon 2.80
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.68
  • Greg Biffle 1.46
  • Tony Stewart 0.91

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Danica Patrick 3.28
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.84
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 2.75
  • David Gilliland 2.66
  • David Ragan 2.39
  • Cole Whitt (-2.27)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Chris Buescher 4.00 *
  • Michael Annett 3.83
  • Alex Kennedy 3.36
  • Landon Cassill 3.09
  • Matt DiBenedetto 2.67 *
  • Justin Allgaier 2.46
  • Timmy Hill 2.20 *
  • Jeb Burton 1.40 *
  • Boris Said 1.30 (Currently not listed in Fantasy Live, based on $10 cap)
  • Alex Bowman 0.90
  • JJ Yeley (-1.10)
  • Michael McDowell (-1.87)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Watkins Glen, Cheez-It 355

Pocono is not known for multi-car wrecks and most fantasy lineups were affected by the thirteen car incident. We should be able to gain some of our lost points back this week as NASCAR moves north for the second road course of the season. Generally, Watkins Glen is a predictable track, and we should expect some clear frontrunners. You should expect to have a successful week, as there are some good bargains from road course specialists to take advantage of this week.

Marcus Ambrose is the clear first choice at Watkins Glen. Ambrose is the only driver to lead a lap in the last five races and is second in total laps led in the last five years with 97. His average finish position is third among active drivers since 2005, his average running position is second, and he has the highest loop data score. With 121 laps where he was the fastest driver on the track and running in the top 15 for 85% of his laps, every data point reveals a high probability for success.

Along with Ambrose, Kyle Busch is also a clear choice for the road course. Kyle Busch has led the most laps of any driver in the last five years and boasts the best average finish position of 4.6 since 2005 at the track. He was in the top 15 for 92% of his laps and has an average running position of 5.4. Like Ambrose, Kyle Busch is an obvious pick with a high probability of success.

The third pick will go to AJ Allmendinger, who provides tremendous value due to his low salary cap figure. With an 8.8 average finish position, Allmendinger has the fifth-best average finish position since 2005. His average running position of 11.5 and 70% of laps in the top 15 are not as dominant as Ambrose or Busch, but there is enough consistency to pick him. Allmendinger’s biggest drawback is only 8 laps led and 8 fast laps in the last five years. Despite this concern, he should be worth the start.

Landon Cassill provides decent value, and I am picking him this week to add a better fifth driver. With an average finish position of 25.5 and a loop data of 40, Cassill’s numbers are not particularly impressive. He has, however, the best fantasy points per dollar since 2008. I suggested Cassill last week and he wrecked. I hope he makes up for it at Watkins Glen. Boris Said, with the same salary cap figure, was tempting here. I cannot get over how poor the equipment was during his last start at Sonoma. You could easily start Said instead of Cassill, but I will stick with the 40 Car.

These picks will leave enough salary cap room for Brad Keselowski as the fifth options. Initially, I was gearing to pick Tony Stewart here until I realized I had enough cap room for Keselowski. I was surprised that Keselowski has a lower than expected average running position of 12.3. He only has run in the top 15 for 69% of his laps. Both of these numbers are respectable and reveal his consistency. These numbers surprised me because Keselowski’s average finish position since 2005 is the second-best in the series with 6.5. Keselowski has a ticket punched for the chase. He could coast the last five races, but has a competitive streak. Keselowski will take risks to win this week at Watkins Glen.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on Nascar.com combines fast laps, laps led, final position, and start-to-finish position differential. In order to prevent us from simply picking the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live utilizes a salary cap format. The goal is to find value in your picks.

The formula in this article basically calculates the total number of points accumulated in their scoring system and divides this number by their salary cap figure. We can then determine how many points to expect per fantasy dollar. Since I left him out of my lineup, we will look at Tony Stewart’s Watkins Glen Statistics as an example.

TONY STEWART AT WATKINS GLEN

  • Total laps led last five years: 34 = 3.4 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Fast laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
  • Finish position: 13th place average = 31 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Start to finish differential: Minus 6 = Negative 6 Fantasy Live points per race
  • Average number of points per race: 28.40
  • Salary Cap figure on Fantasy Live: $22.75
  • Points per dollar: 28.4 / 22.75 = 1.25 fantasy points per dollar

Please review the fantasy points per dollar figures below for Watkins Glen with this week’s picks in bold. For rookies with no history at the track, we will use their 2014 averages to give you an idea what to expect from them.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kyle Busch 2.04
  • Brad Keselowski 1.81
  • Carl Edwards 1.70
  • Clint Bowyer 1.53
  • Matt Kenseth 1.53
  • Kevin Harvick 1.29
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.01
  • Joey Logano 0.92
  • Kasey Kahne 0.91
  • Jeff Gordon 0.68
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 0.54

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Marcus Ambrose 1.99
  • Martin Truex Jr. 1.60
  • Austin Dillon 1.46
  • Tony Stewart 1.25
  • Greg Biffle 1.23
  • Kyle Larson 1.21
  • Kyle Busch 1.16
  • Paul Menard 1.14
  • Ryan Newman 1.02
  • Brian Vickers 0.92
  • Jamie McMurray 0.46
  • Aric Almirola 0.43

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 2.08
  • AJ Allmendinger 2.05
  • Casey Mears 1.97
  • Justin Allgaier 1.31

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • David Ragan 2.63
  • David Gilliland 2.16
  • Cole Whitt 1.77

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Landon Cassill 4.28
  • Ryan Truex 2.82
  • Michael Annett 2.26
  • Reed Sorenson 1.57
  • Josh Wise 0.80
  • Boris Said 0.80
  • Joe Nemecheck 0.47
  • Michael McDowell (-2.15)
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Watkins Glen, Cheez-It 355 at The Glen

Congratulations to Dale Earnhardt Jr. on picking up his third victory of the season and sweeping the races at Pocono this year. The win gives Dale the same amount of bonus points when the Chase starts as Jimmie Johnson and Brad Keselowkski with three wins each so far this season. Now there are only five races left until the Chase and there are still spots up for grabs.

CHEEZ-IT 355 AT THE GLEN

With only five races left until the Chase the series heads to Watkins Glen, NY for the second road-course race of the season. I think that the series will fill another Chase spot with a different winner this week, which means someone else won’t make it on points.

Right now Greg Biffle holds the final spot for the Chase in the point standings, one point ahead of Kasey Kahne, two points ahead of Austin Dillon, and five points behind Kyle Larson. I believe this last spot will be taken by Marcos Ambrose this week when he wins the race at Watkins Glen and qualifies for the Chase and then the next four weeks will be a real battle to secure the final spot in the Chase. The fireworks are going to fly.

Marcos Ambrose: Marcos has had a terrible year after improving over the last few years since he joined the series. I thought he would win the race at Sonoma earlier this season, but that didn’t happen and now the only way he makes the Chase is to win a race. That race will happen this weekend on the road course or it won’t happen at all. Marcos has nothing to lose by letting it all hang out and that is exactly what he will do this weekend.

Tony Stewart: Tony has won five times at Watkins Glen and he needs a win to make the Chase also. I picked Marcos to win because he is at home at a road course, but Tony is no slouch here and anyone that knows Tony’s passion for racing knows that he will not go down quietly. You will see a man on a mission doing everything he can to win this race and qualify his team for the Chase, and he can do it.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won three races in a row and four out of five here early in his career. The way this team has been performing this season, they are in that same form right now as they were years ago when Jeff was winning a lot of races and championships and this team has that same mentality right now.

Brad Keselowski: Brad already has three wins this season and is solidly in the Chase. That doesn’t matter to him right now. He enjoys the competition so much that he isn’t afraid to mix it up with anyone on a road course. I think one of the best finishes I ever saw in NASCAR was the last lap battle between Brad, Marcos, and Kyle Busch that Marcos won and all Brad said after the race was something to the effect of, that is the way racing is supposed to be.

Kyle Busch: Now we talk about Kyle. Oil on the track on the last lap of the race I am talking about above, is what cost him that race. Kyle has won two races here and without the oil probably would have three wins here already. Kyle finished thirty-third in the first race he ran here, but hasn’t finished outside of the top ten since then, nine races ago. He is also the defending champion at this track.

Carl Edwards: Carl has six top ten finishes in nine career starts at this track. The big question with this team right now is will they give Carl what he needs to win a race or will this team use him for experimentation for the rest of the season now that he won’t be driving for Roush/Fenway next season. I don’t think it will be bad as long as Carl is in contention to win the championship, but one never really knows.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has won a race here before, and the way he has been driving this season, one never knows when he will win again. He has had a car capable of winning every week this year and this week will be no different. Kevin has been racing long enough to know that seasons like this don’t come along all the time and you had better take advantage of them while you can.

Jimmie Johnson: I think it is time for this team to address the right rear tire problem that has been plaguing them for the past month or more. With three wins under their belt, I think they had the right idea to experiment with lower tire pressures, but now that we are getting closer to the Chase, I think they need to get back in the trend of just trying to win races on their talent.

These are your top picks for this week’s race. There will be some road course specialists enter into this week’s race, and if you are in a league like the Yahoo league where you can only start drivers so often during the season you will need to take a chance on one of these drivers this weekend. I am pretty sure that Boris Said will be entered in a car and we will need to watch the entry list that comes out on Tuesday to see if drivers like Juan Pablo Montoya are in the field. This type of pick can put you over the top in your individual league where the rest of the competition doesn’t know who is entered into the race. Check back Wednesday or Thursday after the entry list is out to see any changes I have made to the C group for the Yahoo league.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jeff Gordon
  • Kyle Busch

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Marcos Ambrose
  • Tony Stewart
  • Jamie McMurray
  • Brad Keselowski

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Boris Said
  • Nelson Piquet Jr.

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL

  1. Marcos Ambrose
  2. Tony Stewart
  3. Kyle Busch
  4. Jeff Gordon
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Dale Earnhardt Jr.