Tag: richmond

The Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway lived up to its reputation as a 5-hour battle of attrition to the drivers and viewers. When the caution flags stopped, Carl Edwards came back from the dead to win the race in the closing laps!

We are now only one race away from the start of the Chase. Richmond International Raceway also offers the last opportunity for drivers to qualify for the playoffs by winning a race.

Expect drivers like Kyle Larson and Kasey Kahne to take long chances to try to sneak a win. From a fantasy racing perspective, front-load your lineup in an effort to get the most out of the laps led and fast laps statistic. With each team having a unique strategy due to the standings, the race in Richmond may prove itself to be difficult to forecast. I am leaning towards drivers who have been consistent throughout the season and had a positive outcome in the race earlier this season.

For those of you who read my article on a weekly basis, the first roster choice will be no surprise. Kevin Harvick has been the most consistent driver in the series in 2015 and has a positive track history at Richmond. The combination is a recipe for a high probability for success this week. Harvick has finished in the top-5 in three of his last five Richmond starts. Over the same time span, Harvick has an average finish position of 6th place and has spent 95% of his laps running in the top-15. In the April race, Harvick finished in 2nd place while spending 100% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 23 races in 2015, Harvick has earned 16 top-5 finishes and 20 top-10 finishes. He is 1st in the Series in laps led and fast laps. Due to his numbers, I recommend Harvick for your lineup.

After leading 291 laps en route to a victory in April, Kurt Busch is my recommendation for the 2nd roster spot. With laps led and fast laps weighted heavily this week, going with a driver who had a dominating effort during the most recent race is usually an effective strategy. Kurt Busch’s success at Richmond is not limited to the April race. With four top-10 finishes in his last five races and an average finish position of 8.4, Kurt Busch has enjoyed intermediate success as well. In 2015, Kurt Busch has the 2nd most laps led and 13 top-10 finishes. I expect Kurt Busch to reward owners who start him this week.

Although Joey Logano has not enjoyed long-term success in Richmond, his team has been on fire in the last couple of months. Logano finished in 5th place and led 94 laps earlier this season. With four top-10 finishes in five starts, Logano has seen success at the track. In 2015, Logano has 13 top-5 finishes and the 3rd-most laps led. Although my recommendations at the top of the lineups is predictable, all three combine 2015 success with positive track history. All three have a high probability for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is little salary cap room for the final two spots. I will round out my lineup with the best drivers available. These two slots are subject to change after qualifying. Michael Annett has a 34th place average in three starts and an average finish position of 32.3 in 2015. While neither number will lead you to a championship, there should be enough room to provide a value for his salary cap number. Annett has not provided my lineup with much value the last few weeks, so I will may consider the driver who qualifies 43rd in this spot. Matt DiBenedetto has been a pleasant surprise to those who have used him in 2015. He only finished 37th in April’s race, but a 31.5 average finish position in 2015 shows that he can provide value.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best lineup each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the past five Richmond races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how much value to expect from each driver. Brad Keselowski has earned the most points of any driver, but misses my lineup because he has slipped a little over the last couple of months. As a consolation prize, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate the formula.

BRAD KESELOWSKI AT RICHMOND

• Average finish position last five Richmond races: 14.4 equals 29.6 Fantasy Live points
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.2 equals (-7.2) Fantasy Live points
• Laps led: 648 equals 64.8 Fantasy Live points
• Fast laps: 209 equals 20.9 Fantasy Live points
• Total points earned last five Richmond races: 108.1
• Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $27.25
• Fantasy points per dollar: 108.1 divided by $27.25 equals 3.97 points per dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points per dollar for each driver entered in this week’s race. If you are far behind in the standings, you may want to consider drivers who are out of the Chase and going for broke this week. My suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Richmond history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Brad Keselowski 3.97
• Kurt Busch 3.35
• Kevin Harvick 2.07
• Matt Kenseth 2.05
• Joey Logano 2.01
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.67
• Kyle Busch 1.37
• Jimmie Johnson 1.18
• Denny Hamlin 0.56

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Jeff Gordon 3.23
• Carl Edwards 2.25
• Ryan Newman 2.12
• Aric Almirola 1.96
• Clint Bowyer 1.96
• Kasey Kahne 1.75
• Jamie McMurray 1.68
• Paul Menard 1.46
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.46
• Kyle Larson 1.18

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Greg Bifflo 1.50
• Austin Dillon 1.34
• Tony Stewart 0.92

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• AJ Allmendinger 2.58
• Trevor Bayne 2.20
• Casey Mears 1.59
• Danica Patrick 1.52
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.46
• Cole Whitt 0.74
• Sam Hornish Jr. 0.27

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Timmy Hill 3.60
• David Gilliland 2.87
• Justin Allgaier 2.69
• Reed Sorenson 2.21
• JJ Yeley 1.98
• Landon Cassill 1.97
• Jeb Burton 1.89 *
• David Ragan 1.85
• Jeb Burton 1.58
• Michael Annett 1.52
• Alex Bowman 1.28
• Matt DiBenedetto 1.13
• Brian Scott 0.53 *
• Josh Wise 0.49
• Brett Moffitt 0.00
• Michael McDowell (-0.94)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

The Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway was brutal last week and left many fantasy players licking their wounds.

With four DNFs in the Fantasy Racing Cheat Sheet Yahoo league, my total number of DNFs has grown to 13 for the season (41% of all selections). Needless to say, the element of luck has not been on my side yet this season. NASCAR stays in the east this week at Richmond International Raceway. Like Bristol, your goal is to select the drivers who will earn points in the laps led and fast laps categories. With more chances to earn points due to the number of laps in short tracks, we will once again see a significant difference between the winners and losers this week. My suggestion is to front load your lineup to get as many opportunities as possible to benefit from the laps led statistic.

Although he has not led a ton of laps at Richmond, Kevin Harvick has been running near the top all season. Given his lightning-hot start in 2015, he has to find your lineup on the tracks where he has seen success. Over the past five Richmond races, Harvick is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, he has spent 93% of his Richmond laps running in the top-15 since 2005. He also has earned 15 top-10 finishes during this time span. Harvick will eventually cool off, but he will stay in my lineup until he does.

For the second spot on my roster, I am choosing the driver with the most Fantasy Live points and laps led over the last five Richmond races. Brad Keselowski has led 639 laps and is significantly higher than the second-best driver (Clint Bowyer with 273). Keselowski also has the best lap-to-lap performance. Although the long-term numbers are not overly impressive, the #2 car is clearly a favorite this week after a disappointing Bristol outing.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Denny Hamlin and Jeff Gordon. I like Hamlin at Virginia tracks, but his 20.5 average finish over the last five Richmond races was enough to scare me away. His numbers looked eerily similar at Martinsville, and Denny won that race. Despite the similarities, Gordon is a safer option and has a high likelihood of success this week. He holds a 5th place average finish position over the last five Richmond races. Over the same period of time, Gordon has the third-most laps led and the second-most Fantasy Live points per race. Historically, Gordon has 12 top-10 finishes in his last twenty Richmond races. I am expecting Gordon to be near the top this week.

After choosing three of the highest salary drivers, there is little room remaining for the final two spots. Although he struggled in his Cup debut, Chase Elliot is a high-risk, high-reward option at $9.00. I am hoping he is over his jitters and does not bounce off cars like a pinball this week. Michael Annett has a 35th place average finish position at Richmond. For now, he is the top budget option available. My choice for the final position will be based on qualifying. I will likely pick a driver under $7.00 at the bottom of the qualifying field and hope he passes a few wrecked cars to provide value (see Matt DiBenedetto or Alex Kennedy most weeks).

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format.

Our formula calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Richmond races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary cap figure. The result is a number that reveals which drivers are the most likely to provide value this week. Since Denny Hamlin missed my lineup, we will use his Richmond numbers to further illustrate this formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT RICHMOND

• Average finish position last five Richmond races: 20.5 equals 23.5 Fantasy Live points
• Start-to-finish differential: Negative 7.5 equals (-7.5) Fantasy Live points
• Laps Led: 202 equals 20.2 Fantasy Live points
• Fast Laps: 77 equals 7.7 Fantasy Live Points
• Average number of points per race last five Richmond races: 50.88
• Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26.00
• Fantasy Live points per dollar: 50.88 divided by $26.00 equals 1.96 points per dollar

Below is the Fantasy Live points per dollar for each driver at Richmond. My picks are highlighted picks are in bold. We will use the 2015 numbers for all tracks for any driver with no Richmond track history. I will comment on any suggestions after qualifying. I will also post my Yahoo lineup this week so you know who to avoid in your lineups. With 28 races still left in the season, there is plenty of time to catch up.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

• Brad Keselowski 4.03
• Jeff Gordon 2.90
• Matt Kenseth 2.12
• Denny Hamlin 1.96
• Kevin Harvick 1.85
• Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.81
• Jamie McMurray 1.39
• Joey Logano 1.31
• Kyle Larson 0.89
• Jimmie Johnson 0.77

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

• Clint Bowyer 2.53
• Carl Edwards 2.35
• Ryan Newman 2.23
• Kurt Busch 2.10
• Aric Almirola 1.73
• Martin Truex Jr. 1.67
• Greg Biffle 1.58
• Paul Menard 1.44
• Kasey Kahne 1.40

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

• Sam Hornish Jr. 2.29
• AJ Allmendinger 2.27
• Tony Stewart 1.97
• Casey Mears 1.89
• Austin Dillon 1.43
• Danica Patrick 1.39

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

• David Gilliland 2.55
• Justin Allgaier 2.49
• Trevor Bayne 2.25 *
• David Ragan 1.42
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.35

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

• Alex Kennedy 3.09 *
• Brett Moffitt 2.86 *
• Matt DiBenedetto 2.50 *
• Landon Cassill 2.24
• JJ Yeley 1.89
• Brendan Gaughan 1.83 *
• Cole Whitt 1.18
• Jeb Burton 1.08 *
• Reed Sorenson 1.05
• Josh Wise 0.80
• Michael Annett 0.79
• Alex Bowman 0.41
• Chase Elliott(-0.33) *
• Joey Gase n/a *

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.