After one week in the Chase, teams are taking more risks to win. The risks make the races more exciting, but can be nerve-wracking for Fantasy NASCAR lineups. I am still trying to figure out how Hamlin won in Chicago, but the win came down to making the right risk at the right time. With only two races left in this round of the playoffs, the pressure is mounting to post a solid finish and advance for 15 Chase-eligible drivers.
FRONT-LOAD YOUR LINEUP
Although there is some value available in the middle-price range drivers, my recommendation is to front-load your lineup and try to capture the laps led and fast laps statistics. Pick wisely and you are sure to move up in the standings this week and hope you find the driver who runs like Kenseth at Richmond two weeks ago. Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski are three drivers who I like this week.
As per usual, my first recommendation for your Fantasy Live lineup is the Kevin Harvick. Sometimes in fantasy sports, the key to success to to avoid being cute and simply choose the favorites. This strategy has helped my team with Harvick this season, and Chicago was a rare regret for me last week. Harvick has three top-10 finishes in his last five New Hampshire starts and has an average finish position of 12.6 during this stretch. He has the 3rd-most laps led and 2nd most fast laps in these races as well. Earlier this summer, Harvick led 59 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. On similar configured tracks in 2015, Harvick has enjoyed five top-5 finishes in seven races. With 24 top-10 finishes in 2015, Harvick shows a combination of season success, track-type success, and track success. When a driver is proficient in all three areas, there is a high probability for success. With an accident sending him to the bottom of the Chase standings, Harvick will be under high pressure to finish near the top of the field. This makes him a riskier selection than most weeks, but I am going to stick with the driver who has helped me to success in 2015.
CONSIDER RESULTS FROM PREVIOUS LOUDON RACE
One of the benefits of fantasy racing at this point in the season is that you have a frame of reference from the race earlier in the season. Using this frame of reference provides the choice for the 2nd roster spot on my team. Kyle Busch led 96 laps on his way to a victory in New Hampshire in July. Over the past five races at Loudon, Busch has finished in the top-10 each time. His average finish position of 3rd over this stretch makes his the most successful driver at the race. Although he has only driven on four flat tracks this season, two have resulted in the winner’s circle. In 2015, Kyle Busch is in the top-5 in laps led through 28 races despite the fact that he missed 11 races. With one of the best cars in the field last week, I like Kyle Busch’s chances for a successful race this week.
With a 5th place average finish position in the last five Loudon races and four top-10 finishes during this stretch, Brad Keselowski is a solid option for your lineup this week. The Penske team led 100 laps on their way to a 2nd place finish in July. Keselowski has led the most laps and accumulated the most fast laps over the last five New Hampshire races. With five top-10 finishes in seven flat tracks this season, this team should be running near the top. Keselowski has been one of the top drivers this season, and is in the top-5 drivers for laps led in 2015. Keselowski needs to break out from running 8th or 9th to really help your fantasy lineup, and this track provides a good chance for him to lead some laps.
FILLING OUT THE BOTTOM
After front-loading the lineup with three high-priced favorites, there is not much room to fill out the bottom two roster spots. Based on the salary cap, I had to choose between David Ragan and David Gilliland for the fourth roster spot. In the end, I went with Ragan because I feel he offers more upside than the 38 car. Ragan qualified 3rd and finished 18th in the race earlier this season. Ragan has performed adequately on similarly configured tracks and has finished inside the top-20 three times on flat tracks. Michael Annett, with a 32nd place average finish position in New Hampshire, rounds out my roster. He finished 36th earlier this year and averages of 32nd place finish in 2015 races. Your expectations should be low for his team, and this roster spot may change after qualifying.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the top drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five New Hampshire races. Next, we divide this number by the salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows where to expect value from each driver entered in the race. Joey Logano finished 4th in the July race, but failed to make my roster this week. As a consolation prize to one of the best drivers this year, we will use Logano’s numbers at Loudon to further illustrate the formula.
JOEY LOGANO AT NEW HAMPSHIRE
- Average finish position last five New Hampshire races: 19.8 equals 24.2 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Negative 10.6 equals (-10.6) points per race
- Laps led: 89 equals 8.9 points per race
- Fast laps: 56 equals 5.6 points per race
- Total Fantasy Live points earned per race: 28.1
- Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $28.75
- Fantasy Live points per dollar: 28.1 divided by $28.75 equals 0.98 points per dollar
Below you will see the points per Fantasy Live dollar for all drivers entered in this week’s race. We are set for another exciting round of the playoffs and should be some great racing in New Hampshire.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Brad Keselowski 3.62
- Kyle Busch 2.70
- Matt Kenseth 2.33
- Kevin Harvick 2.01
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.79
- Jimmie Johnson 1.10
- Joey Logano 0.98
- Kurt Busch 0.96
- Denny Hamlin 0.87
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Martin Truex Jr. 2.05
- Aric Almirola 1.80
- Kyle Larson 1.73
- Carl Edwards 1.64
- Jamie McMurray 1.35
- Clint Bowyer 1.35
- Jeff Gordon 1.33
- Ryan Newman 1.05
- Kasey Kahne 1.04
- Paul Menard 1.03
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Austin Dillon 3.01
- Greg Biffle 1.78
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- AJ Allmendinger 2.65
- Tony Stewart 2.40
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.77
- Danica Patrick 1.37
- Casey Mears 1.28
- Cole Whitt 1.23
- Sam Hornish Jr. 0.88
- Trevor Bayne 0.80
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Michael Annett 3.40
- Josh Wise 3.28
- Travis Kvapil 2.59
- David Gilliland 2.56
- Timmy Hill 2.42
- Alex Bowman 2.11
- Travis Kvapil 2.10
- Brett Moffitt 2.00
- Landon Cassill 1.33
- David Ragan 1.22
- Matt DiBenedetto 1.20
- Justin Allgaier 0.57
- Jeb Burton (-0.42)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.
