Tag: Martinsville

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Post author By Bill Hnat
Post date October 29, 2015
1 Comment on NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 MARTINSVILLE, GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

Now that the stress and excitement of a playoff restrictor plate track race is over, NASCAR has its last short track of the season at Martinsville Speedway. From a Fantasy Live perspective, your goal should be to capture the laps led statistic this week due to the extra laps. My recommendation would be to front-load your lineup with the three drivers who are still Chase eligible. The bottom two spots should be the two best available budget options.

If you are behind in the standings, this is a good opportunity to swing for the fences. If an under-the-radar driver dominates the race, then you can shoot up the standings. If you are near the top of the standings, I would recommend taking the more conservative lineup below.

Since the playoffs have started, there is no driver with more momentum than Joey Logano. Through 31 races in 2015, Logano’s average finish position of 7.9 is the best of any driver. Earlier this season at Martinsville, Logano led 108 laps on his way to a 3rd place finish. With three top-10 finishes over the last five races at the track, the #22 team will likely stay competitive this week. Logano has seen success on flat tracks this season. In nine races for this track type, Logano has enjoyed seven top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led of any driver on flat tracks this season. My only concern with Logano is that he may have lost some friends after spinning Kenseth at Kansas, but this is not enough of a reason to keep him off of my roster.

The next roster recommendation has been a consistent choice on my roster this season. Kevin Harvick has 20 top-5 finishes already in 2015. Over the recent weeks, he seems to be running in the top-5, but is not claiming the same laps led and fast lap points that he earned earlier this season. In the March race, Harvick led 154 laps on his way to a 7th place finish. Over the last five Martinsville races, Harvick has three top-10 finishes and a 13th place average finish position. Harvick has led 772 laps in nine flat track races this season, good for the most in the series. I do not know if Harvick will be the driver who takes the checker this week, but I think he will be near the front and not harm my roster. After a controversial Talladega finish, I expect the #4 team to be have a high chance for fantasy relevance this week.

Originally, I had Denny Hamlin as the third option due to his victory earlier this year. Instead, I want a Chase eligible driver for the third spot. About half-way through the season, I decided not to put Jeff Gordon on my roster in every circumstance. Now, he has advanced to the playoffs, and Martinsville is one of his best tracks. Gordon has a 5th place average finish position over his last five races at the tracking, including earning one grandfather clock during this time span. Earlier this year, he finished a modest 9th place. Although he only maintains a 15th place average in 2015 races, Gordon has an excellent chance for success this week.

With a front-loaded lineup, there was limited cap space for the final two spots. David Ragan finished 5th in the March race with Kyle Busch’s equipment. He maintains a 23rd place average finish position over the last five Martinsville races. His average finish position at flat racks is better than other track types. Ragan should outperform his value this week. Tentatively, the 5th roster spot is set for Matt DiBenedetto. Although he only finished in 31st earlier this season, his team usually performs adequately enough not to damage your roster spot. In the 28 races he started in 2015, DiBenedetto has a 31st place average. As always, make sure to watch qualifying to determine which budget options to use. I would recommend chasing after a driver who can get start-to-finish differential. There should be some close racing this week. A driver who qualifies 43rd can benefit from the DNFs that are likely to accommodate the race.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the five best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Martinsville races. Next, we divide that number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value. I have a tendency to avoid drivers who are eliminated from the Chase. For this reason, I will not have Jimmie Johnson on my roster. However, he has the most Fantasy Live points of any driver at Martinsville. We will use his numbers to further illustrate our formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT MARTINSVILLE

Average finish position last five Martinsville races: 15th equals 29 Fantasy Live points
Start-to-finish differential: Negative 11.2 equals (-11.2) Fantasy Live points
Laps led: 765 equals 76.5 Fantasy Live points
Fast laps: 239 equals 23.9 Fantasy Live points
Total Fantasy Live points earned by race: 118.2
Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $24.75
Fantasy Live points per dollar: 118.2 divided by $24.75 equals 4.78 points per dollar

Below you will find the Fantasy Live points per driver for each driver in Martinsville. Make sure to front-load your lineup this week and set your lineups after qualifying.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

Jimmie Johnson 4.78
Jeff Gordon 3.36
Matt Kenseth 3.24
Denny Hamlin 2.57
Kevin Harvick 2.26
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.03
Joey Logano 1.99
Kyle Busch 1.71
Carl Edwards 1.15
Kurt Busch 1.14
Brad Keselowski 1.10

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

Clint Bowyer 3.10
Aric Almirola 1.76
Jamie McMurray 1.57
Kasey Kahne 1.54
Paul Menard 1.28
Martin Truex Jr. 0.76
Ryan Newman 0.40
Kyle Larson 0.11

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

Greg Biffle 2.31
Austin Dillon 1.58
Sam Hornish Jr. 1.16

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

Trevor Bayne 3.02
Tony Stewart 2.47
Danica Patrick 2.50
Cole Whitt 2.30
Casey Mears 1.94
AJ Allmendinger 1.53
Justin Allgaier 1.43
Ricky Stenhouse 0.49

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

Kyle Fowler 6.00
JJ Yeley 3.89
Jeb Burton 3.60
Landon Cassill 3.46
Matt DiBenedetto 3.33
Michael Annett 3.31
Alex Kennedy 3.17
Brett Moffitt 3.00
David Gilliland 2.97
David Ragan 2.01
Alex Bowman 1.13
Timmy Hill 0.21

Tags Martinsville

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Martinsville, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

Post author By Bill Hnat
Post date October 24, 2014

The racing gods are on Brad Keselowski’s side this season. On an unpredictable restrictor plate track, Keselowski avoided elimination by winning in Alabama. We are now down to four races and eight drivers until the end of the 2014 season. We are also running out of time in Fantasy Racing and you need to be conservative if you are leading or take risks to catch up to the league leader. We are on a more predictable track in Martinsville and should be a welcome relief to those of us who take the time to analyze the numbers.

With the more predictable nature of Martinsville Speedway, the best strategy is to choose your three favorite drivers. The final two roster spots should be the best value drivers with the remaining salary cap. My first pick was recently eliminated from the championship and has dominating race statistics at the track. Jimmie Johnson had 15 Top Five finishes at Martinsville in his last 19 races. With 93% of his laps in the Top 15 and an average running position of 5.6 since 2005, Johnson is expected to run near the top. Short tracks produce more laps to lead, so there is a greater benefit to choose drivers with favorable running positions. Johnson is the best in the series in fast laps and laps led and should be an asset to your team this week.

The second choice in my lineup, Jeff Gordon, rivals his teammate’s success in Virginia. Gordon also has 15 Top Five finishes in his last 19 Martinsville races. Gordon is second to Johnson in lap-to-lap performance, laps led, fast laps, and average finish position since 2005. The biggest difference between the two drivers is that Gordon can still win the championship and has ben a more consistent driver in 2014.

My original third choice for my roster was Denny Hamlin because Hamlin was the third-best driver in all track statistics. After selecting my budget choices on my roster, I had enough cap space to upgrade to Brad Keselowski. Although he has not had dominating numbers at Martinsville, my addition to my roster is due to his success in the 2014 season. Keselowski has proven to be a force even on tracks where he is statistically average. I expect a solid run after he squeaked through to the next round.

These selections allowed little salary cap space for my last two roster spots. My expectations are low but should still maintain value due to the low salary cap number. Michael Annett finished in 31st place earlier this season at Martinsville. Landon Cassill has averaged a 27th place in his last five races. If both drivers duplicate their efforts, they should provide enough value to be worth a roster spot.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on NASCAR.com has a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the last five races at Martinsville. Then, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine how many points to expect from each driver. Denny Hamlin got bumped from my lineup in favor of Brad Keselowski. As a consolation prize, we will use his Martinsville numbers to further illustrate the formula.

DENNY HAMLIN AT MARTINSVILLE

Laps Led Last Five Martinsville Races: 57 laps equals 5.7 points per race
Fast Laps: Cannot be calculated with 100% accuracy
Average Finish Position: 16th place = 28 points per race
Start to Finish Differential: Negative 14 = -14 points per race
Total points per race: 19.70
Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $23.50
Fantasy Points Per Dollar: 19.7 divides by 23.50 equals 0.84 points per dollar

Please review the fantasy points per dollar for each driver below with this week’s recommendations highlighted in bold.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

Jimmie Johnson 5.52
Jeff Gordon 3.14
Matt Kenseth 2.57
Clint Bowyer 2.50
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.59
Carl Edwards 1.32
Brad Keselowski 1.26
Kyle Busch 1.17
Kevin Harvick 1.01
Joey Logano 0.82

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

Austin Dillon 2.23
Greg Biffle 2.08
Aric Almirola 1.94
Marcus Ambrose 1.61
Kurt Busch 1.23
Brian Vickers 1.20
Paul Menard 1.16
Tony Stewart 1.06
Kasey Kahne 0.94
Jamie McMurray 0.85
Martin Truex Jr. 0.85
Denny Hamlin 0.84
Ryan Newman 0.71
Kyle Larson 0.13

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

AJ Allmendinger 2.35
Danica Patrick 1.91
Justin Allgaier 1.53
Casey Mears 1.43
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

David Gilliland 1.92
Cole Whitt 1.09
David Ragan 0.30

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

Landon Cassill 2.55
Michael Annett 2.44
Josh Wise 0.87
Reed Sorenson 0.38
Alex Bowman (-1.09)

Tags Martinsville

Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Martinsville Speedway, Goody’s Headache Relief Shot 500

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date October 19, 2014

Jeff Gordon celebrates in victory lane at Martinsville Speedway

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Contender round is in the books and the start of the Eliminator round starts next Sunday. Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Busch were all knocked out of the Chase. There are eight drivers left with a chance to win this year’s Sprint Cup championship and after the next three races we will be down to four drivers and one race to determine this season’s champion.

GOODY’S HEADACHE RELIEF SHOT 500

The first race of the Eliminator round will be held at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville, at .526-miles in length, is the shortest track in the NASCAR series. With only 12 degrees of banking in the corners, it is also one of the flattest tracks on the circuit. It is shaped like a paperclip and has asphalt for straightaways and concrete through the turns. Trust me, there is going to be a lot of bumping and banging once again this week as eight drivers try to advance to the next round and thirty-five other drivers just try to get a win.

Jeff Gordon: I am picking Jeff to win this race and advance to the NASCAR Sprint Cup title race. Jeff only made it into this round by three points and he doesn’t want to come that close to being eliminated again. Jeff has won eight races during his career at Martinsville including this race last year. I think he will repeat that feat and propel himself to the final round.

Jimmie Johnson: Even though Jimmie has been eliminated from the Chase, this team is still going to do everything they can to win more races. Jimmie also has eight wins at this track and will give Jeff a run for his money in this race. I just don’t know what happens if the race is between Jeff and Jimmie at the end. Does Jimmie give Jeff the win so Hendrick Motorsports has a guaranteed qualifier for the championship, or does he do everything in his power to win the race?

Denny Hamlin: Denny is still in the Chase and he is another driver who has always been very good at this track also. Denny has four wins at this track, although he hasn’t won a race here since 2010. I think if Denny is going to win a Chase race it is either going to be here or at Phoenix during this stretch. Still, he has finished in the top five in over half of the races he has run here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won a race at Martinsville during his career, but he has finished in the top ten there in over half of his starts. This team is disappointed they didn’t advance in the Chase and needs to continue to improve and try and pick up wins as they look towards next season. They need to become more consistent and that is something they can work on now.

Tony Stewart: Tony has struggled for much of this season, but he still has a driver in the Chase in Kevin Harvick. Tony has three wins at Martinsville and has finished in the top ten in half of his starts at this track. He will be an invaluable asset to Kevin this week, because he can give him advice on how to get around this track. Look for him to be a factor in this race.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin has one win at Martinsville and has run very well there lately. He has five top ten finishes in his last eight starts there including the win back in the spring of 2011. This team has been fast every week and has looked good during the Chase. I think they will be one of the teams to move on to the final round.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has yet to win a race here in his career, but he has only run here nine times. During those nine races he has finished in the top ten five times with his best finish being fourth. He had to win the race at Talladega last week to advance and once again he fought through adversity, in the form of an early race accident, and came away with the win he needed. Never count this team out.

Joey Logano: Joey, like Brad has won two races during the Chase and will be looking for another one this weekend. Martinsville hasn’t been one of his better tracks, as he has only three top ten finishes in eleven starts here. However he did finish fourth in the spring race and this team has also been fast most every week of the season.

Jamie McMurray: Jamie has some trouble last week at Talladega, but this team has been running very well over the past couple of months. Jamie has only one top five finish here in twenty-three starts, but he has finished in the top ten in twelve of those starts. He might not win here, but he does know how to drive on this track.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

Denny Hamlin
Tony Stewart
Jamie McMurray
Greg Biffle

Yahoo Driver Group C

Austin Dillon
Danica Patrick

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY

Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
Denny Hamlin
Tony Stewart
Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Dark Horse: Jamie McMurray

Stay Away From: Kurt Busch

Tags Martinsville, Yahoo! Fantasy Racing

Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Martinsville Speedway, STP 500

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date March 24, 2014

Jimmie Johnson & Rick Hendrick celebrate at Martinsville

Congratulations to Kyle Busch who won his first race of the season in Fontana, California last weekend. I’m not taking anyway from Kyle and his team’s win, but I have to say NASCAR or Goodyear really messed up once again. It is absolutely unforgivable to have that many drivers only be able to drive about 20-laps or 40-miles and then have their tires blow. I am sure that there will be an investigation and they will find out if it was the tires or the camber that NASCAR allowed the teams to put in their cars. I only hope that something changes because today was shades of the Brickyard a few years ago and if I had paid to see that race in person I would not be a very happy camper.

STP 500

This week the series heads back East as the drivers and crews head to Martinsville, Virginia and Martinsville Speedway for the running of the STP 500. Martinsville is another short, flat track, and when I say short I mean really short. There is hardly enough room for 43 pit stalls. In fact, the 43rd pit stall was installed in 1998. At .526-miles in length, it is the shortest track in the Sprint Cup Series.

Jimmie Johnson: Once again I have to pick Jimmie to win this week’s race at Martinsville. Jimmie has eight career wins at this track and has won two of the last three races run here. He has seventeen top five and twenty-one top ten finishes in twenty-four starts here. There really aren’t a lot of consistent drivers at this track, but Jimmie is the most consistent.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff also has eight career wins at this track and won the race here last fall during the Chase. His stats are equally impressive as Jimmie’s are with twenty-seven top five and thirty-four top ten finishes in forty-two starts. He will give Jimmie the most competition this weekend and we will see our sixth different driver win a race this year.

Denny Hamlin: Denny missed last week’s race in California with a sinus infection that gave him double vision. Hopefully he will be sufficiently recovered by this weekend so he can get back on the track. He is the only other real consistent driver at Martinsville with four career victories, nine top fives, and thirteen top ten finished in only sixteen starts. After Denny the consistency drops way off.

Tony Stewart: Tony came away with a top five finish last week and will look to build on this momentum this week at Martinsville. He has three career wins at this track and has finished in the top ten in just over half of his twenty-nine starts here. Those are still very good stats, but quite a bit behind the stats of the first three drivers mentioned.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Although he has never won a race at this track, Dale has finished second here twice. He has ten top five finishes and fifteen top ten finishes in twenty-eight starts here. He needs to get back on track after a couple of disappointing races in a row.

Kevin Harvick: Speaking of getting back on track, Kevin really needs to get his momentum turned around. Mechanical and tire failures have cost him in the last three weeks. He has won a race here in the past, but only has three top five finishes in twenty-five starts. That isn’t good enough for me to put him on my team this week.

Ryan Newman: Ryan won this race two years ago, when Jeff and Jimmie kind of got run over on a late race restart when they both stayed out and everyone else pitted for fresh tires. Ryan made his way through the carnage and claimed the win that weekend. He has been running very well for most of this season, but he was one of those drivers that had a few tire issues last weekend.

Clint Bowyer: Clint could very well get a win this week at Martinsville. He has finished in the top 5 in his last three starts here, including a second place finish in this race last year. He had a very good car at Fontana last week and it looks like the Michael Waltrip Racing teams are starting to come around.

Brad Keselowski: Brad has four straight top ten finishes here and has only started eight races here in his career. He has the attitude to get the job done at this track and could be a factor this weekend once again. Both of the Penske teams have been very good on a weekly basis this season and have qualified well too.

Kyle Busch: Last week’s winner has finished in the top ten in half of his starts at Martinsville. Maybe the win last weekend will launch this team on a streak of wins over the coming weeks. Kyle is another driver that isn’t afraid to move someone out of his way if that’s what it takes to get to the front and win a race and that is one of the best ways to pass someone at Martinsville.