Tag: Las Vegas

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 LAS VEGAS, KOBALT 400

Post author By Bill Hnat
Post date March 4, 2015

Last week’s race took a toll on many of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters. We hope for more consistent finishes from the top drivers during the first leg of the west coast swing in Las Vegas. This week’s recommended strategy is to pick your three top drivers and fill the final two spots with value picks.

NOT PLAYING FAVORITES

There is not a team that is a clear-cut favorite statistically this week.

Because of this, my first pick this week is one of the consistent drivers in the series coming off his first win of the season. Over the last five races at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has a sixth-place average finish and the best lap-to-lap performance in the series. Half of his starts since 2005 have resulted in a top-5 finish at the track. Johnson has an excellent chance of a top-5 finish and is a low-risk option on your roster.

Carl Edwards, with a 5.6 average finish position over the past five races, has the best average finish numbers in the series. His salary cap number took a dive after Daytona and can be on your roster at a better price. Like Johnson, Edwards has finished in the top-5 in half of his races since 2005. Historically, Edwards spends 70% of his laps in the top-15, which is third-best in the series behind Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon.

Maybe as a NASCAR Fantasy Live writer, I can be too technical when I am annoyed that the Fantasy Live commercial airing during races boasts a lineup that is significantly over the Fantasy Live salary cap. Random misgivings aside, NASCAR moves west for the next three weeks after a cold weekend in Georgia.

Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon have led the most laps over the last five races, and have some of the best points-per-dollar rates of any drivers. Both drivers will stay off my roster this week. For Gordon, his car has been competitive. Luck has not been on his side so far in 2015. This may not be fair, but luck plays an important role in Fantasy NASCAR. Tony Stewart is off to a slow start this season, which is not unusual for him. I need to see more from his team before I consider rostering him.

The third roster spot is a toss-up between Logano and Harvick. Their numbers are very close with a slight edge going to Logano. In the last five years, Logano has an average finish position of 12.2. His team has started the season hot and this pick has more to do with the start of the season. Since 2005, Logano has spent 62% of his laps in the top-15. My biggest concern with Logano is that he only has one top-5 finish at Las Vegas. Given his early success, he is worth the risk. Qualifying position may determine if I go with Harvick or Logano when I officially set my roster late in the week.

With the top drivers absorbing a high percentage of the salary cap, the remaining two spots will be filled by budget drivers. David Ragan has averaged a 25th place finish over the last five years. With Kyle Busch’s equipment, he has a good chance for a top-20 finish. Trevor Bayne has an 18th place average in his last four races at Las Vegas. He also has three top-20 finishes in four attempts. Though I am not expecting points from fast laps and laps led from either driver, a middle-of-the-pack finish will make both drivers valuable.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race for each driver. Then, we divide the average points by the Fantasy Live salary cap number. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect for each fantasy dollar. Since I narrowly kept Kevin Harvick off my roster, I will use his numbers to illustrate the points-per-dollar formula.

KEVIN HARVICK AT LAS VEGAS

Average finish position last five Las Vegas races: 16th place equals 28 fantasy points per race. Start-to-finish differential: Plus 1 equals 1 fantasy point per race. Laps Led: 29 equals 2.9 points per race.

Fast Laps: 72 equals 7.2 points per race
Total points per race last five Las Vegas races: 39.1
Fantasy Live Salary Cap Figure: $28.00
Points per Dollar: 39.1 / 28 equals 1.41 Fantasy Points Per Dollar

Below you will find the fantasy points-per-dollar for each driver. Suggested picks are in bold. Brian Scott and Matt DiBenedetto have no 2015 or track data and are not included on this list. Good luck having a successful third week of the Fantasy NASCAR season. Feel free to share your roster decisions in the comment section at the end of the article.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

Jimmie Johnson 2.62
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2.17
Kasey Kahne 2.17
Matt Kenseth 2.16
Jeff Gordon 1.88
Kevin Harvick 1.41
Denny Hamlin 1.33
Joey Logano 1.27
Brad Keselowski 1.21
Kyle Larson 1.03
Jamie McMurray 0.89

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

Tony Stewart 3.84
Carl Edwards 2.61
Paul Menard 2.33
Brian Vickers 1.41
Greg Biffle 1.31
Ryan Newman 1.15
Clint Bowyer 1.00

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

Martin Truex Jr. 2.03
Austin Dillon 1.28
AJ Allmendinger 0.88
Aric Almirola 0.79
Sam Hornish Jr. 0.15

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

Trevor Bayne 3.23
David Ragan 2.19
Justin Allgaier 1.90
Danica Patrick 1.60
Casey Mears 1.56
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 0.66
Ryan Blaney (-1.58) *

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

Michael Annett 3.00
Reed Sorenson 2.29
Jeb Burton 2.00 *
Regan Smith 1.94
Travis Kvapil 1.60
David Gilliland 1.57
Alex Bowman 0.80
Josh Wise 0.23
Brendan Gaughan 0.00
Cole Whitt 0.00
Landon Cassill (-0.12)
Michael McDowell (-0.13)
JJ Yeley (-0.18)

* Jeb Burton and Ryan Blaney are using their 2015 totals from all races since they have no track history.

Tags Las Vegas

Fantasy NASCAR

2015 Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kobalt 400

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date March 2, 2015

Congratulations to Jimmie Johnson on winning his first race of the season and virtually ensuring he will have a spot in the 2015 Chase. Once again we saw which teams will be competitive on a weekly basis and which teams have a lot of work to do if they want to compete for the championship this year.

KOBALT 400

This week the series heads out west to Las Vegas Nevada to the Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the running of the Kobalt 400. This is another mile and a half oval track with just slightly less banking than at Atlanta. This will mean that the speeds will be a little lower this week and the race is only 400-miles, so there should be less engine issues.

Other than that, the drivers who were fast at Atlanta should be fast once again this week at Las Vegas. I also think that the track won’t be as slick as the track was at Atlanta and the temperatures should be higher too. With that said lets see how are drivers will fare this week.

Kevin Harvick: I am picking Kevin to win the race this week at Las Vegas. Kevin was the fastest car for most of the weekend at Atlanta where he came from the back of the pack to the front in the blink of an eye. A poor restart late in the race probably cost this team their first win of the season. If things go according to plan this week Kevin will be sitting in victory lane at the end of the race.

Joey Logano: Joey was fast all weekend also and the team just missed with their final adjustment of last week’s race. The engine issues I was worried about after Daytona have been corrected and this team should have another fast car this week. The temperature might change more during this week’s race and that means they will have to stay on top of the adjustments they need to make to be in contention at the end of the race.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie won the race at Atlanta, so he should have a car capable of winning back to back races. Jimmie and crew-chief Chad Knaus work well together and they seem to make the right adjustments to get their car where they want it to be late in the race. It always seems like when Jimmie wins a race he wins multiple races in a short period of time and that could happen again.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff had a good car last week also, but his luck just wasn’t of the good type. Bad things don’t happen to good teams consistently, so this week his luck should change and he will have a car capable of winning this race. Jeff really wants to have a great year before he retires from full-time competition at the end of the season.

Matt Kenseth: It’s hard to believe that Matt hasn’t won a points race in over a year, and I think that will come to an end very shortly. Matt is too good of a driver and has equipment that puts him in contention every week. He also remains calm throughout the race and makes good decisions which give him the opportunity to win races.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale had another great race and almost made the pass on Jimmie on the final restart of the race at Atlanta. This team looks like they have improved from a very good season last year and they will win multiple races before the start of the Chase. Dale finished second in this race last season and looks like he could be poised to take one more position in this year’s race.

Brad Keselowski: Brad hasn’t had the kind of start he was looking for heading into the start of this season, but he won this race last year and finished third here in 2013. Those facts might give this team the confidence to come into this week and win their first race of the season. Brad is one of the best drivers on the circuit and this team will qualify for the Chase.

Carl Edwards: Carl has won two races at this track and has a string of four straight top five finishes here. Last week they just couldn’t make the correct adjustment to find the speed they needed to have a shot at winning the race. I think Carl has the equipment to be a serious contender for a championship once again this season and once he gets more comfortable with his new team they will start winning races.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey’s best finish at Las Vegas is second which he has accomplished twice. He has also finished in the top ten in six of his eleven starts at this track and he looked good in last week’s race. This team would love to get a win early this year to grab their spot in the Chase without having to wait until the final few races to know if they are in or not.

Ryan Newman: Once again, Ryan is quietly going about his season. You don’t hear much about him, but he always seems to be hanging around the top ten and avoids getting into huge trouble on the track. He has always run well at Vegas and this week should be no different. One of these week’s he is going to surprise people and win a race. Don’t be surprised, Ryan is communicating with his team and they understand each other and make the necessary adjustments to stay in contention every week.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

Kevin Harvick
Matt Kenseth

Yahoo Driver Group B

Carl Edwards
Kasey Kahne
Martin Truex Jr.
Jamie McMurray

Yahoo Driver Group C

David Ragan
Regan Smith

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT LAS VEGAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY

Kevin Harvick
Matt Kenseth
Jimmie Johnson
Carl Edwards
Joey Logano

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Greg Biffle

Tags Las Vegas

Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kobalt 400

Post author By Jeff Gutowski
Post date March 3, 2014

Congratulations to Kevin Harvick on getting his first win of the 2014 season and his first win at Stewart/Haas Racing. Kevin did it in dominating fashion leading 224 of the 312 laps that were run on the day. He also survived multiple restarts at the end of the race and cruised to the victory.

KOBALT 400

This week the series stays out west as the drivers head for Las Vegas and the running of the Kobalt 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Las Vegas will be the first mile and a half track that the series will visit this season and that makes it the third different type of track we have seen this season. Let’s find out which drivers are going to impress this week.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie is my pick to win this week’s race in Las Vegas. He has four career wins at this track, finished second to Tony Stewart here two years ago, and he looked very good late in the race last week at Phoenix. Chad Knaus got the car to handle the way Jimmie wanted it to late in the race, but a slew of caution flags kept Jimmie from moving up in the field.

Matt Kenseth: As I just mentioned, Matt won this race last season and has won three races at this track during his career. This is the type of track that he capitalized on all last year and this is most likely the type of track that he will get a Chase qualifying win at this season.

Tony Stewart: Tony won this race two years ago and has run consistently well here since joining Stewart/Haas Racing back in 2009. Tony hasn’t gotten off to the best start yet this season and the teams have lost three engines in the first two races of this season, but he looked much better last week at Phoenix and they get their equipment from Hendrick Motorsports. He is still recuperating from a broken leg from last season and a nice mile and a half track is just what the doctor ordered.

Carl Edwards: Carl has two career wins at this track and has finished in the top five in his last three starts here. This team has run well the first two weeks of the season and it looks like they might be back to the form they were in three years ago. I haven’t seen any problems with the Roush/Fenway engines this season and they seem to have a lot of power and speed in them. Just what you are looking for at Las Vegas.

Greg Biffle: Although Greg has never won at this track, he has finished in the top ten in sixty percent of his starts here and has lead laps in sixty percent of all of his starts here. That just tells me that sooner or later Greg is going to win a race here. He is always very good at this type of track and would like nothing better than another top ten finish after a disappointing finish last week at Phoenix.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale is having a great early season as he won the Daytona 500 and finished second at Phoenix last week in a race that he had a great car, but couldn’t really do anything with Kevin Harvick. This is the type of track that Dale loves to race at and with the teams momentum at a high right now, it wouldn’t surprise me if he won this race too.

Kevin Harvick: Speaking of momentum, Kevin is at the top of the list right now. After getting his first win for Stewart/Haas Racing last week in only his second start for the team, he is looking to keep his momentum going. This week will tell us a lot about how good this team is going to be all season. Kevin hasn’t been bad at Las Vegas throughout his career, but he has just been average. He hasn’t shown the consistency that you need as a driver to make me want him on my team this week. However, I think that he has better equipment now than he has had in the past and that might be all that it takes for him to improve here.

Kyle Busch: Kyle is a driver who has run consistently well at Las Vegas and it is his hometown track. He would like nothing better than to come away with the checkered flag in front of his hometown crowd. He won here back in 2009 and finished fourth in this race last season. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, this guy is a threat to win every week, no matter what type of track they are racing on and this week will be no different.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey has had his ups and downs since joining Hendrick Motorsports, but this is the type of track that he can let it all hang out at. He finished second to Matt Kenseth here last year and lead 114 laps in that race. He has also sat on the pole here three times in ten starts so that shows you that he knows the fast way around this track. If he can stay out of trouble and make the right adjustments to his car late in the race he will contend for the win this weekend.