Tag: Kansas

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Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

With the first race of the second round of the playoffs in the books, the second leg in Kansas offers different strategies for the teams remaining in the Chase. With the unpredictable nature of a restrictor plate tracking looming, teams will feel a lot of pressure to finish near the front of the field this week. You should front-load your lineup, and your roster decisions should reflect your standings in your league.

If you want to take a risk, take a driver like Kenseth or Junior who are behind in the standings. If you are near the top and want to minimize your risk, take Harvick or Carl Edwards since they will try to play it safe. There are only a few weeks left this season, and you need to make a push for the top of your lineup right now.

As a mainstay in my lineup, I will keep Kevin Harvick as the first driver in my lineup. In the May race, Harvick led 53 laps on his way to a 2nd place finish. He has seen success at the track recently, with three top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races. His 371 laps led and 178 fast laps over the same stretch are good for best in the series. On large oval tracks in 2015, Harvick has seven top-10 finishes and the most laps led of any driver. Through 26 races in 2015, Harvick has seen 17 top-5 finishes and has led the most laps of any driver. With a combination of track success, track type success, and 2015 success, Harvick has a high probability for success in Kansas. Given his current standings in the playoffs, I expect the #4 team to have a conservative approach to the race. This will benefit lineups that are near the top of the standings.

Another driver who has helped fantasy NASCAR lineups to the top of the standings this season is Joey Logano. Logano ended up finishing 5th in the Kansas earlier this season, leading a handful of laps during the race. With four top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races, starting Logano has a high probability to bring you success this week. In large oval tracks this year, Logano has eight top-10 finishes in nine races of this track type. After 26 races, Logano has passed Harvick for the best average finish position in the series in 2015. With 15 top-5 finishes and the 2nd most laps led in the series, Logano has been one of the most consistent drivers in the series. My only concern with Logano is that the team may take some risks now that they have qualified to the next round of the playoffs.

The third lineup recommendation started the season hot and cooled off slightly as the season continues. He joins my lineup due to his performance in Kansas earlier this season. Martin Truex Jr. led the most laps in the May race en route to a 9th place finish. Truex Jr. reminds me of Kenseth earlier in the season when it seems like he is always running in 9th place. While this is a good run by NASCAR standards, it does no benefit to a scoring system that rewards points for laps led and fast laps. Truex Jr. has three top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas races. He has the 10th best average finish position in 2015 and boasts 16 top-10 finishes through 26 races. I will keep an eye on practice and qualifying, and I am hoping the #78 team repeats their performance earlier this season. Truex needs another solid finish to remain in contention in the playoffs, and I expect a conservative setup from their team as well.

Sometimes recommending budget drivers can be challenging. This week, two drivers stood out from the pack. Michael Annett, due to his low salary cap number, has a tendency to show up at the bottom of my roster. I am usually rewarded with modest numbers that do not help or hurt me. Annett finished 23rd in the May race and has a 24th place average finish position at the track through three attempts. These numbers outperform his 2015 average finish position of 33.4. If Annett comes near his average, you will benefit from having him in your lineup. Matt DiBenedetto finished 25th place in the May Race with a plus-ten start-to-finish differential. This finish outperforms his value and is worth a risk at the bottom of your roster.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from starting the best drivers each week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average points earned per race over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide the average points by the salary figure for each driver to determine which drivers are likely to provide the most value this week. Jimmie Johnson won the Kansas race, but only led a handful of laps and missed the cut-off for my roster. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the last five Kansas races to further illustrate the formula.

JIMMIE JOHNSON AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position last five Kansas races: 11.8 equals 32.2 Fantasy Live Points
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus six equals 6 Fantasy Live points
  • Laps led: 49 equals 4.9 Fantasy Live points
  • Fast laps: 91 equals 9.1 Fantasy Live points
  • Average points per race: 52.2
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $25.25
  • Fantasy Live points per race: 52.2 divided by $25.25 equals 2.07 points per dollar

Below are the points per race for each driver over the last five Kansas races. Please use this as a tool to give to an edge as the season winds down.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Kevin Harvick 3.22
  • Matt Kenseth 2.54
  • Joey Logano 2.31
  • Jeff Gordon 2.21
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.07
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.65
  • Brad Keselowski 1.44
  • Carl Edwards 1.39
  • Denny Hamlin 0.71
  • Kyle Busch 0.48

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.37
  • Kyle Larson 2.28
  • Kasey Kahne 2.08
  • Paul Menard 1.65
  • Clint Bowyer 1.38
  • Aric Almirola 1.33
  • Ryan Newman 1.16
  • Jamie McMurray 1.02
  • Kurt Busch 0.99

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Greg Biffle 1.42
  • Sam Hornish Jr. 0.47

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • AJ Allmendinger 2.49
  • Austin Dillon 2.30
  • Danica Patrick 1.70
  • Cole Whitt 1.69
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.65
  • Casey Mears 1.53
  • Trevor Bayne 0.91
  • Ryan Blaney 0.84
  • Tony Stewart 0.65
  • Justin Allgaier (-0.73)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 6.77
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.87
  • Timmy HIll 3.10
  • Landon Cassill 2.75
  • Reed Sorenson 2.62
  • JJ Yeley 2.28
  • Brett Moffitt 2.21
  • David Gilliland 2.18
  • Reed Sorenson 2.00 *
  • Brian Scott 1.03 *
  • David Ragan 1.01
  • Alex Bowman 0.71
  • Jeb Burton (1.40)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR FANTASY LIVE PICKS, 2015 KANSAS, SPONGEBOB SQUAREPANTS 400

Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s starting position scared me away at Talladega. The fan favorite rewarded the owners who added him to their roster. After a series of short track and super speedways, we return to an intermediate sized track this week at Kansas. Intermediate tracks generally favor the top drivers in the series. As a result, I would suggest front-loading your roster with three top drivers and finding the best budget drivers possible for the final two spots.

An easy choice for your Kansas lineup this week is Kevin Harvick. Harvick has run near the top at every track, and he is especially dominant at tracks this size. Harvick has led the most laps over the past five Kansas races and is second in the series with an average finish position of 7.6. Historically, Harvick has run 73% of his laps in the top-15 since 2005 and has a 10th place average finish position during this time span. Kevin Harvick is an easy choice for the top of your lineup.

There are three other top drivers I would like this weekend and choosing a driver to leave off was challenging. After much deliberation, my second roster spot is going to Jimmie Johnson due to his long-term history at the track. Johnson has a respectable 13th place average finish position in the last five Kansas races and the fourth-most laps led. Since 2005, Johnson has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 races. During the same time span, Johnson has the best average finish position and the most laps led of any driver. The #48 team is looking more consistent as the season progresses, and I have high expectations this week.

Joey Logano’s long-term numbers at Kansas do not warrant a roster spot. However, he has looked much better since joining the Penske team and is one of the favorites to win this race. Over the last five races, Logano has a 13th place average finish position and the second-most laps led. Logano’s team is one of the best this year and Logano is a solid pick for your roster.

With a front-loaded lineup, there is not many salary cap dollars available for the final two roster spots. I am going with two high-risk, high-reward options. Erik Jones struggled as a last second substitute for Denny Hamlin earlier this season. With time to prepare, I am expecting a decent finish now that he is taking over for the #18 team. Ty Dillon has a 28th place finish in one race this year. My expectations are low, but a similar finish would provide value with an $8 salary cap. Michael Annett missed my roster, but has a 25th place average finish in two races. Consider him as a budget option.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines fast laps, laps led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting the best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula first calculates the average number of points earned by each driver over the last five Kansas races. Next, we divide this number by the Fantasy Live salary cap figure. The end result is a number that shows how many points to expect from each NASCAR driver. Matt Kenseth is the front-end driver that barely missed my roster. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was in this position last week and won in Talladega. As a consolation prize, we will use his numbers over the past five Kansas races to illustrate the formula.

DALE EARNHARDT JR AT KANSAS

  • Average finish position last five Kansas races: 7.2 = 36.8 fantasy live points per race
  • Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.8 equals 7.8 points per race
  • Laps led: 263 equals 26.3 points per race
  • Fast laps: 121 equals 12.1 point per race
  • Total points per race: 83
  • Fantasy Live salary cap figure: $26
  • Points per Fantasy Live dollar: 83 divided by $26 equals 3.19 points per dollar

Below you will find the results for each drivers. Suggested picks are in bold. For drivers with no Kansas history, we are using their 2015 numbers for all of their races to give you an idea of the value that they are providing. Good luck with your picks this week. Feel free to share your rosters in the comments.

GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)

  • Matt Kenseth 3.19
  • Kevin Harvick 2.83
  • Kyle Larson 2.19
  • Joey Logano 2.08
  • Jeff Gordon 1.98
  • Jimmie Johnson 1.87
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.47
  • Brad Keselowski 1.36
  • Denny Hamlin 1.23
  • Jamie McMurray 1.03

GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)

  • Martin Truex Jr. 2.25
  • Kasey Kahne 1.98
  • Paul Menard 1.85
  • Carl Edwards 1.82
  • Tony Stewart 1.60
  • Clint Bowyer 1.52
  • Aric Almirola 1.50
  • Greg Biffle 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.76
  • Kurt Busch 0.73

GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)

  • Austin Dillon 2.09
  • AJ Allmendinger 1.06
  • Sam Hornish Jr. (-0.52)

GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)

  • Trevor Bayne 2.78
  • David Gilliland 2.17
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.67
  • Danica Patrick 1.63
  • Casey Mears 1.21
  • Justin Allgaier (-1.22)

GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)

  • Michael Annett 4.65
  • Matt DiBenedetto 3.20*
  • Landon Cassill 2.75
  • Cole Whitt 2.59
  • Brett Moffitt 2.56*
  • Ty Dillon 2.38*
  • Mike Bliss 2.36*
  • Josh Wise 1.60
  • Alex Bowman 1.38
  • Brendan Gaughan 1.33*
  • Jeb Burton 1.17*
  • Michael McDowell (-0.88)
  • Erik Jones (no data)

* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400

Kyle Busch climbs from his tore up race car at Kansas Speedway

The 2014 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Challenger Round is over and the Contender round starts next week at Kansas Speedway. AJ Allmendinger, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, and Aric Almirola have been eliminated from the Chase. The twelve drivers that advance will all have their points reset to 3,000 and the four drivers who are lowest in points among those twelve that don’t win one of the next three races will be eliminated and will not advance to the third round.

The next two races will be run on mile and a half tracks and the third race of the Contender round will be a restrictor plate race at Talladega. You can bet that the remaining Chase drivers want to be locked into the next round before they get to Talladega. That means that the race this week at Kansas Speedway is very important to all of these drivers. Kansas Speedway is very similar to Chicagoland Speedway, which was where the first Chase race was run this season, so those who did well at Chicago should do well once again this weekend.

HOLLYWOOD CASINO 400

Jimmie Johnson: I am going to pick Jimmie to win the first race of the Contender round. Jimmie has two career wins at Kansas Speedway and has finished in the top ten here in fourteen of his sixteen starts. Those are very impressive stats and I think this team is going to take the next step towards moving on the the next round of the Chase this weekend. They seem to be getting a little better every week and have found some of the speed they had lost over the middle of the season.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff has won three races at Kansas and is really looking like a championship contender. After winning the race at Dover last weekend, this team has momentum and confidence on their side. I look for Jeff to run towards the front of the pack all day on Sunday and have a shot at the win in the final laps. Jeff has also finished in the top ten here in twelve of his seventeen starts.

Matt Kenseth: Matt has won two races at Kansas and this team, which is still looking for their first win of the season, just keeps finishing in the top ten every week and moving along. All they have to do is keep qualifying for the next round and then win their first race of the season at Homestead and Matt will have another championship to celebrate. They need to find a little bit more speed though to do it.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won this race last year, finished second here this spring, sat on the pole here for the last two races, and has been fast all season. I look for him to once again qualify in the top five and perhaps win another pole. They just need to have their luck change a little bit and they will find themselves back in victory lane very soon.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has finished in the top ten in half of the races he has run at this track. They need to improve on their performance as the Chase continues and I think they will do that over the next three races. Dale is very good at all of the tracks he will visit during this stage of the Chase. Even though he has never won at Kansas, this is the type of track he excels at.

Brad Keselowski: Brad won a race at Kansas in 2011 and he won the first Chase race at Chicagoland. Like I said earlier, this track is very much like Chicagoland and the drivers that ran well there will have an advantage with their setups when they get to the track this week. Brad has been fast in all of the Chase races and leads the series in wins this season with five so far.

Joey Logano: Joey won the second Chase race and should have a fast car once again this weekend. Both of the Penske cars have shown a lot of speed all year and even though Joey has struggled at Kansas for much of his career, he has finished in the top five in his last two starts here.

Carl Edwards: Carl has been really good at Kansas during his career, finishing in the top ten in ten of his fourteen starts there. However, this team has really struggled to find speed on this type of track for most of the year and they will need to find it soon with most of this segment of the Chase being run on this type of track. I think there are better drivers to choose for your team this week.

Kasey Kahne: Kasey overcame some problems last week at Dover and races his way into the Contender round by not giving up. Now he heads to Kansas where he has been very good lately with five top ten finishes in his last six starts. This team could win one of the next two races and propel themselves into the third round of the Chase. These are the types of tracks where Kasey has been very good his whole career.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Jimmie Johnson
  • Kevin Harvick

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Joey Logano
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Tony Stewart

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Jimmie Johnson
  2. Kevin Harvick
  3. Jeff Gordon
  4. Brad Keselowski
  5. Matt Kenseth

Dark Horse: Kyle Larson

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch

Categories
Fantasy NASCAR NASCAR Fantasy Live

NASCAR Fantasy Live Picks, 2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour Energy 400

Clint Bowyer #15 Boston Marathon

The unpredictable nature of Talladega took a heavy toll on last week’s salary cap picks for Talladega Superspeedway. Four of the five choices did not finish due to accidents and mechanical difficulties. Sometimes all the data points to an expected outcome, and the results are significantly different than expected. This reality is what makes us love and hate fantasy racing.

The results from Kansas will likely improve from last week as Kansas is one of the more predictable races in the NASCAR schedule.

FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP

NASCAR.com fantasy rankings use a salary cap formula that limits the quality of drivers than you can pick each week. The point total combines the laps led, fast laps, differential between start and finish, and final standings to determine the winner. The formula used in this article uses the total points earned by a driver divided by his or her salary cap figure. The end result is a number that determines the total number of points to expect for each fantasy dollar.

Though fast laps information is available, the fast lap data is not used for this article because the data cannot be calculated into the salary cap point format with 100% accuracy.

MATT KENSETH AT KANSAS

Matt Kenseth’s data from this week can help provide you with a clearer picture on how this formula works below.

  • Matt Kenseth total laps led last 3 spring races: 165
  • Laps led per race: 55
  • Nascar.com laps led points per race: 27.5 (1 point for every 2 laps led)
  • Starting position to finish position differential: 9
  • Average finish: 3rd place (41 points)
  • Total points per race: 77.5
  • Nascar.com salary cap value: $28.25
  • Kansas points per salary cap dollar: 77.5/28.25 = 2.74 points per dollar

KANSAS SPEEDWAY SALARY CAP DARKHORSE

Of the major drivers, the one with the highest points per fantasy dollar is Martin Truex Jr. with 3.28. With 219 laps led over the last two years, Martin has experienced success at this type of track. The general inconsistency of the Furniture Row team is cause for concern, but the upside makes Martin Truex Jr. a viable option.

THE MORE CONSISTENT DRIVERS

Matt Kenseth (see statistical details above) has averaged a top four finish at Kansas over the last three spring races. Jimmie Johnson has been nearly as consistent here without as many laps led. Kansas could be the track where the 48 car leads half the race on its way to victory. There seems to be a hex over this team in 2014, which may be the direct result of the overplayed Lowe’s “boom confetti” commercial. Hopefully, they shake off the bad luck soon.

Other drivers with more than two points per dollar include Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. Feel free to use any of these drivers as your picks.

With results at this track leaning towards predictable finishes, the value choices at the bottom of the salary cap are slim. Reed Sorensen passed 14 cars last race and has the highest points per dollar of any driver this week (4.44). Justin Allgaier has been emerging as the third-best rookie over the last few weeks. With 1.6 points per fantasy dollar in 2014, he has better value in salary cap terms than his rookie counterparts Austin Dillon and Kyle Larson.

Best Value Picks

  • Reed Sorensen 4.44 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Martin Treux Jr. 3.28
  • Matt Kenseth 2.74
  • Denny Hamlin 2.65
  • Jimmie Johnson 2.19
  • Brad Keselowski 2.18
  • Josh Wise 2.13
  • Kurt Busch 2.12

Worst Value Picks

  • Joe Nemecheck (-0.22) (points per fantasy dollar)
  • AJ Allmendinger (-0.05)
  • Joey Logano 0.11
  • Brian Vickers 0.32
  • Kyle Busch 0.60
  • Casey Mears 0.74
  • Clint Bowyer 0.77

Notable Drivers

  • Kasey Kahne 1.82 (points per fantasy dollar)
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.73
  • Jeff Gordon 1.69
  • Tony Stewart 1.61
  • Carl Edwards 1.56
  • Greg Biffle 1.53
  • Aric Almirola 1.38
  • Kevin Harvick 1.31
  • Jamie McMurray 1.30
  • Paul Menard 1.13
  • Ryan Newman 0.97

MY RECOMMENDED STARTERS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth $28.25
  2. Jimmie Johnson $27.25
  3. Martin Truex Jr. $21.50
  4. Justin Allgaier $16.25
  5. Reed Sorensen $6.75
Categories
Fantasy NASCAR

2014 Kansas Speedway, 5-Hour ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth checkered flag kansas

Congratulations goes out to Denny Hamlin who picked up his first victory of the season by avoiding the big wreck that always seems to happen in the restrictor plate races. Denny ended up in the right lane late in the race and got excellent drafting help in passing Kevin Harvick after a late race restart and he held onto the lead as the caution came out on the last lap for debris on the track. That should be enough to propel him into the Chase.

This week the series heads to Kansas City, KS for the running of the 5-Hour Energy 400. Kansas Speedway is another of the mile and a half tracks on the circuit that make up the majority of schedule. I just hope that there aren’t a lot of tire issues again this weekend.

5-HOUR ENERGY 400

Matt Kenseth: I am picking Matt to get his first win of the season this week at Kansas. Matt has won two of the last three races at Kansas and has finished no worse than eleventh in his last seven starts there. They would like nothing better than to get their first win of the season and get the monkey off their backs and gain a spot in the Chase.

Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie has finished in the top ten in ten straight races at Kansas including two victories during that stretch. This is another team that is still looking for their first win of the season so they can lock up a spot in the Chase themselves. I think this could be an all out battle between two of last seasons best drivers with a spot in the Chase up for grabs.

Greg Biffle: Greg came close to getting his first win of the season last Sunday at Talladega and he has always been very good at Kansas. He has won twice here and has finished in the top five in seven of his fifteen starts. This is the type of track that Greg excels on and this weekend should be no different.

Jeff Gordon: Jeff won the first two races ever run at Kansas Speedway. Even though he hasn’t won here since then he has finished in the top five in nine of his sixteen starts at this track. Jeff currently sits in the top spot in the standings, but he would really like to get his first victory of the season and get his spot in the Chase. There are only sixteen races left until the Chase starts and a lot of drivers who are looking for their first win yet.

Carl Edwards: Carl has already won a race this season, but he would like to get his second win before the Chase starts too. Although he has never won a race here he has finished in the top ten in nine of his thirteen starts at this track. I think that the Roush/Fenway engines are some of the best out there this season and can help these drivers get to victory lane.

Kevin Harvick: Kevin won the race here last fall and has looked very good every week this season. As I have said before, if it weren’t for a lot of mechanical failures early this season, Kevin would probably have more than two wins and be sitting on top of the standings right now. He also has seven top ten finishes in his sixteen starts at this track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Dale has never won at Kansas yet, but he has finished in the top ten in seven of his fifteen career starts here. This team has slipped a little bit lately, but this is the type of track where they can get back into victory lane and get back on track like they were at the beginning of the season. Dale has been very good all year at this type of track.

Brad Keselowski: Brad took the blame for a wreck last weekend at Talladega that took out many of the big name drivers. This weekend he will try to redeem himself and should be able to do just that. Both of the Penske teams have been very fast in qualifying all season long and I look for them to continue qualifying well this week also.

Joey Logano: Joey is the other Penske driver that has started towards the front of the field all season long. He also has two wins to go along with his good starting positions and could very easily get his third win of the season this weekend at Kansas Speedway.

YAHOO! FANTASY NASCAR PICKS FOR KANSAS SPEEDWAY

Yahoo Driver Group A

  • Matt Kenseth
  • Jimmie Johnson

Yahoo Driver Group B

  • Brad Keselowski
  • Greg Biffle
  • Joey Logano
  • Carl Edwards

Yahoo Driver Group C

  • Kyle Larson
  • Austin Dillon

MY TOP-5 OVERALL AT KANSAS SPEEDWAY

  1. Matt Kenseth
  2. Jimmie Johnson
  3. Greg Biffle
  4. Kevin Harvick
  5. Brad Keselowski

Dark Horse: Martin Truex Jr.

Stay Away From: Kyle Busch