With another victory at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle Busch continues his improbable return from a broken leg to get closer to Chase eligibility. As our summer series continues, we move on to one of the oldest race tracks. Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a race where the top-drivers are typically running in the front of the field. As a result, my recommendation this week is to front-load your lineup with three drivers with a high probability of running out front. The final two roster spots should be the best available budget options.
Although he has not been as dominant as early in this season, Kevin Harvick is still the most consistent driver in the series. The first selection for my lineup has seen recent success in Indianapolis. In his last five races at the track, Harvick has enjoyed two top-10 finishes and an average finish position of 10.6. All of his races have been inside the top-20. During the same time span, Harvick has spent 65% of his laps running in the top-15. Through 17 races in 2015, Harvick has an average finish position of 6.9. With 12 top-5 finishes and the most laps led and fast laps in the Series this season, Harvick is worth keeping in your lineup.
The second recommendation for my starting lineup is as predictable as the first. Jimmie Johnson has led the most laps over the past five races at the Brickyard. He has a couple of top-10 finishes and 81% of his laps in the top-15. With four wins at the track and the most laps led over the last 10 years, Johnson has seen success. He is also one of the top-drivers in the Series. Johnson has 10 top-5 finishes in 2015. He is in the top-5 in the Series in laps led and fast laps in 2015.
Jeff Gordon has been underwhelming in his final season in the Series. He is completely off my radar in my Yahoo leagues. If he ever turns the corner this season, this is the race where he will. Gordon has earned four top-10 finishes in his last five races. His seventh place average finish position in the last five Indianapolis races is 2nd in the Series. Over the long-term, Gordon has eight top-10 finishes in 10 races, and an 8th place average finish position. With only two top-5 finishes in 2015, Gordon’s spot in my lineup may be replaced by Kyle Busch or Dale Earnhardt Jr. However, ignoring his successful history at the track is challenging.
Since our lineup is front-loaded, there will be little budget for the remaining two roster spots. Chase Elliot is expected to race and has a 24th place average in limited action this season. I think he will exceed expectations at the historical track and build on his 2-point per fantasy dollar number. Michael Annett finished 31st in Indy last season and has a 32nd place average finish in 2015. This should be enough to get some value out of this spot.
FANTASY NASCAR LIVE SALARY CAP
Fantasy Live on nascar.com uses a scoring system that combines laps led, fast led, finish position, and start-to-finish differential. In order to prevent us from simply starting to best drivers every week, Fantasy Live uses a salary cap format. Our formula calculates the average number of Fantasy Live points earned by each driver over the past five Indianapolis races. Next, we divide that number by the salary cap figure to determine which drivers provide value for your budget. In the theme of underachievers in 2015, Tony Stewart could be a dark horse this week with an average finish position of 8.4 in his last five Indianapolis races. He is a little risky for a roster spot. As a consolation prize, we will use his Indianapolis numbers to further illustrate the formula.
TONY STEWART AT INDIANAPOLIS
- Average finish position last five Indianapolis races: 8.4 AFP equals 35.6 Fantasy Live points
- Start-to-finish differential: Plus 7.2 equals 7.2 fantasy live points per race
- Laps led: 10 equals 1 Fantasy live point per race
- Fast laps: 13 equals 1.3 Fantasy Live points per race
- Total points earned last five Indianapolis races: 44.1 Fantasy Live points per race
- Salary cap figure: $16.25
- Fantasy Points per dollar: 44.1 divided by 16.25 equals 2.71 points per dollar
Below are the point per Fantasy Live dollar for each driver in Indianapolis. For drivers with no track history, we will use their numbers from all 2015. Suggested picks this week are in bold. Good luck with your Fantasy Live picks this week.
GROUP A ($25.00 or higher)
- Jeff Gordon 2.19
- Kyle Busch 2.07
- Jimmie Johnson 1.86
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1.49
- Jamie McMurray 1.44
- Kevin Harvick 1.40
- Denny Hamlin 1.34
- Brad Keselowski 1.26
- Matt Kenseth 1.25
- Martin Truex Jr. 1.20
- Joey Logano 1.08
- Kurt Busch 0.33
GROUP B ($20.00 – $24.99)
- Kasey Kahne 2.25
- Kyle Larson 2.02
- Ryan Newman 1.73
- Paul Menard 1.62
- Clint Bowyer 1.58
- Aric Almirola 1.30
- Carl Edwards 1.09
GROUP C ($15.00 – $19.99)
- Tony Stewart 2.71
- Greg Biffle 2.48
- Austin Dillon 1.74
- AJ Allmendinger 1.47
GROUP D ($10.00 – $14.99)
- Chase Elliott 2.00 *
- Cole Whitt 1.67
- Sam Hornish Jr. 1.50
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 1.48
- David Ragan 1.42
- David Gilliland 1.31
- Trevor Bayne 0.53
- Casey Mears 0.34
- Ryan Blaney 0.15 *
- Danica Patrick (-0.35)
GROUP E ($9.99 or lower)
- Matt DiBenedetto 2.67 *
- Michael Annett 2.42
- Brett Moffitt 2.32 *
- Justin Allgaier 2.05
- Landon Cassill 1.81
- Reed Sorenson 1.22
- Jeb Burton 1.20 *
- Michael McDowell 1.02
- JJ Yeley 1.00
- Josh Wise 0.60
- Timmy Hill 0.40
- Brian Scott 0.13 *
- Alex Bowman (-0.25)
* Driver has no track data, and we are using his 2015 numbers.
